dta1984 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1.5" new snow overnight. Definitely feels and looks like deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Hard to believe we are going to go from bitterly cold temps to rain tomorrow. The snow is deep so hopefully some of it survives. Looks like a .5"+ of rain so it will be ugly. I guess the only positive is that the thin ice on the lake should melt some. Looked at the visible satellite yesterday and the western basin was covered along with shoreline areas in the central basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benadrill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 CLE As the Arctic airmass invades the area Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, scattered snow showers area wide will develop, especially downwind of the lake. Models indicate bands of Lake Effect snow will become likely Thursday night into Friday for the primary Snowbelt. Models continue to indicate moderate to locally heavy Lake Effect snow will be possible for far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania in the primary Snowbelt on Friday lasting through Saturday. Some early estimates of localized 6 to 12 plus inches may be possible with a good west to east fetch of wind from the lake. The blast of cold and wind chills will be the main weather storm elsewhere with scattered light snow showers for the end of the week. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... For a brief period of time, we will see a return southerly flow Saturday night and early on Sunday ahead of the next cold front and clipper like system. Widespread light snow for everywhere will be possible on Sunday with the passage of another front and shortwave. Another stronger clipper like system with better lift and moisture may bring another round of light snow to the area early next week. The is not much confidence on exact timing and amounts but the main message we are conveying in the long term is that it will be colder than average and several chances of snow for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 6 hours ago, Benadrill said: CLE As the Arctic airmass invades the area Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, scattered snow showers area wide will develop, especially downwind of the lake. Models indicate bands of Lake Effect snow will become likely Thursday night into Friday for the primary Snowbelt. Models continue to indicate moderate to locally heavy Lake Effect snow will be possible for far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania in the primary Snowbelt on Friday lasting through Saturday. Some early estimates of localized 6 to 12 plus inches may be possible with a good west to east fetch of wind from the lake. The blast of cold and wind chills will be the main weather storm elsewhere with scattered light snow showers for the end of the week. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... For a brief period of time, we will see a return southerly flow Saturday night and early on Sunday ahead of the next cold front and clipper like system. Widespread light snow for everywhere will be possible on Sunday with the passage of another front and shortwave. Another stronger clipper like system with better lift and moisture may bring another round of light snow to the area early next week. The is not much confidence on exact timing and amounts but the main message we are conveying in the long term is that it will be colder than average and several chances of snow for the region That was from last night, slightly more reserved tone this morning. West winds would favor closer to the lakeshore and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Its pouring out there with a lot more rain on the way. Sucks to be in the jackpot zone for rain. I bet the snow is pretty much wiped clean by the end of the day. It would have survived the mild temps and some rain, but an inch+ of rain and strong winds isn't good. The LES potential isn't looking good for this area. Winds are much too westerly for any area south of Rt. 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Heavy rain is just training along the central lakeshore counties. CLE may need to rethink their AFD... Deep moisture continues to feed into the region ahead of low pressure approaching Chicago. Models have trended upwards with respect to QPF with several solutions indicating portions of NW Ohio could receive 1.00-1.25" today. The 00Z/GFS is a high outlier with as much as 1.75 inches forecast across NW Ohio. So far upstream observations in Illinois and Indiana are in the 0.75-1.25 range and feel the GFS is too high. 06Z GFS has also trended back down below 1.25 inch which is a good trend to see. Forecast axis of highest QPF extends across the north, with an inch or more also expected in NW PA. This obviously raises flooding concerns with many areas holding around an inch of water in the snowpack which will begin to slowly melt as temps/dewpoints continue to climb today. The most immediate concern is blocked drains, especially in urban areas where snow is piled up. Some of the rain will actually be absorbed and stored in the remaining snowpack so not expecting to see a full release into area waterways. We will also see rises developing on area rivers but that will be slower with no flooding expected until at least tonight. A Flood Watch or Areal Flood Advisories may still end up being needed today to account for considerable ponding. Much of the run-off may be somewhat delayed in reaching area waterways as it accumulates initially in the large snowpack which will not all melt today for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 My snow is extremely heavy and still deep, if it all melts today I'd be surprised. Gutters are jammed with ice, I hope the basement doesn't flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, HO1088 said: My snow is extremely heavy and still deep, if it all melts today I'd be surprised. Gutters are jammed with ice, I hope the basement doesn't flood. We'll see. The combo of temps in the 40's, dews in the upper 30's, strong southerly winds and 1.5" of rain is tough on the snow. I don't think the front comes through until late tonight so a lot of melting yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Hard to tell how much snow was left this morning... guessing 2-3" in the deepest spots with grass poking through in the wind swept areas. Picked up an inch with the backside snow. The front really took its time coming through... temp didn't drop to freezing until after 1am. Hopefully we can build the pack back up with clipper snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 How cold will it get next week? 10 days since the last "non cloudy" day at CLE. The ground is a sheet of frozen slush. Is life really worth living in NE Ohio in the winter? ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 10 hours ago, HO1088 said: How cold will it get next week? 10 days since the last "non cloudy" day at CLE. The ground is a sheet of frozen slush. Is life really worth living in NE Ohio in the winter? Well, if the clipper keep trending north we'll see rain/mix on Monday to add to the frozen slush. It's not too bad here in the winter when there is snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Had an additional.75" last night. Nickel and diming this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Had an additional.75" last night. Nickel and diming this week. Yep. Same here. It would be awful to get more rain, then frigid cold early next week. Hoping that changes for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Still at +2.5 degrees above normal temperature at CLE for January. I wonder if the Arctic air this week will put us below normal for the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 https://fox8.com/2019/01/27/25-years-since-northeast-ohio-experienced-cold-like-were-expecting-this-week/amp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Came home to 2.5" of new snow from last night. Very high ratio fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I had a low of 1 early this morning... Hard to believe it will be raining later today with this airmass in place. Warm air never seems to have a problem moving into Ohio however. Looks like winds stay southwesterly behind the arctic front. Would have been nice to get a LES event before the lake completely freezes over. WNY is the place to be. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Update to the update... Fixed forecast for tonight with the timing with the cold front. Slowed timing of the falling temperatures, as temperatures won`tstart crashing until after sunset. As a result, there will be a longer period of time with potential mixed precipitation/rain and have reduced snow totals for parts of the forecast area as it will be too warm for snow. CLE's long range was quite ugly as well. If the pattern change lasts a "couple of weeks" I'll be more than ready to move on to Spring. A look at the global northern hemispheric circulation is beginning to show signs that the Arctic air from the North Pole will begin to flow back toward Russia once again in a similar fashion as what occurred through December. This will aid in ejecting the cold air mass expected Tuesday and Wednesday east of the area fairly quickly. This upper level pattern change will support the possibility of stronger ridges building into North America as we head into the weekend. The North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations are indicating a change to a strong positive phase over the next couple weeks and perhaps a warming trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 it got down to 9 here right by the lake.....figures it's gonna be 40 later here and melt the little snow cover just in time for the coldest high since 1994 on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: it got down to 9 here right by the lake.....figures it's gonna be 40 later here and melt the little snow cover just in time for the coldest high since 1994 on Wednesday. Not sure how much snow you have on the ground in Mentor but we "shouldn't" get wiped clean, at least in this area. Thankfully its not a redux of last weeks 2" of rain and 40's that wiped away the pack. Temps won't be above freezing that long. It will just make the crust underneath the powder a little crustier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 https://www.cleveland.com/expo/news/g66l-2019/01/381ddf89dd5071/everything-to-know-about-belowzero-temperatures-in-cleveland-history-coldest-most-recent-how-common.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 CLE's temp is up to 39. That area really is a sea of warmth... usually 5 - 10 degrees warmer than here. Now 34/18 IMBY. Good timing on going above freezing as the precip moves in... cold air will come in as it moves out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I've noticed driving east on Miles Rd from I-271 the temperature drops several degrees as I enter the Chagrin Valley, sometimes it's coldest in the river valley near the South Chagrin Reservation. Perhaps we don't get as much mixing as the west side which seems flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 36/34 with rain falling. Nice to see the steadier and heavier rain right overhead . Maybe it will last just long enough to melt the pack... or what’s left of it. CLE memtioned temps fall after sunset so anytime between now and 7:45 tomorrow morning should be accurate. The next few days we can watch wny get hit with les under partly cloudy skies and bitter temps. Sorry for the rant but this winter sucks. Need a good 50-60 inches just to get to normal. With a soon to be frozen lake our chance of getting close is extremely low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, NEOH said: 36/34 with rain falling. Nice to see the steadier and heavier rain right overhead . Maybe it will last just long enough to melt the pack... or what’s left of it. CLE memtioned temps fall after sunset so anytime between now and 7:45 tomorrow morning should be accurate. The next few days we can watch wny get hit with les under partly cloudy skies and bitter temps. Sorry for the rant but this winter sucks. Need a good 50-60 inches just to get to normal. With a soon to be frozen lake our chance of getting close is extremely low. Spot on, definitely a lack luster winter so far. Who knows..maybe some milder temps next week can break up the ice some. The lack of any substantial lake effect for us has hurt. Current season snowfall at 44".... We're not far off from last year at this time , but a big March saved us last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Still about 2" on the ground this evening at CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Temp didn't drop below freezing until after midnight. The warmth always seems to be slow to move out. That said, still a decent crusty snow pack out there with snow starting to fall. Maybe we can tack on an inch of fluff today to cover the glacier. Too bad we couldn't get a decent wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benadrill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 From CLE AFD Temperatures over the next couple of days will be the coldest in years for northern Ohio and NW PA. For daily records for this week and the coldest temperatures on record for the area, please see the climate section below. Whether records are broken or not, these temperatures will allow for life- threatening cold conditions with frostbite and hypothermia possible in the matter of minutes and appropriate precautions should be taken. Bundle up in several layers when going outdoors. Check on infrastructure, including water pipes and other utilities. Check on family and friends, especially the elderly. Do not leave pets outdoors for too long. And finally, be kind to one another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Forecast to finish the month at CLE below normal average temp. Impressive after the warm start to the month. Above normal precip, a significant snow storm and several days with strong winds. Not too much lake effect but it was an active month with something for everyone. More ice on the ground than I've ever seen living here. South Russell Park was closed today. I tried to walk in Bainbridge but even open fields were ridiculously slippery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 13 deg and light snow here in CF, not too windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Hmmm... I wonder if CLE is susceptible to warm-ups? Just look at those max and mins 27 33 6 20 -8 45 0 0.03 0.7 2 14.0 33 270 M M 8 89 43 180 28 40 6 23 -5 42 0 0.14 T 2 11.8 23 160 M M 9 1 36 180 29 34 8 21 -7 44 0 0.01 0.1 T 18.7 35 250 M M 9 9 43 260 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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