dta1984 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Seems like a good snowfall range. Models have been ticking back north a bit today. Hopefully we get some lake enhancement to help out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 12Z ECMWF shows 6" total for the event. Not sure about post low snow, this pattern is progressive and the air gets dry and cold quick. Can't see too much deformation band or lake enhancement on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam runs continue to look good 1.25-1.5" on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 32 minutes ago, HO1088 said: The 12Z ECMWF shows 6" total for the event. Not sure about post low snow, this pattern is progressive and the air gets dry and cold quick. Can't see too much deformation band or lake enhancement on the backside. I would think the meso short range models would be the ones to pay attention to and that generally pick up on the lake involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, HO1088 said: The 12Z ECMWF shows 6" total for the event. Not sure about post low snow, this pattern is progressive and the air gets dry and cold quick. Can't see too much deformation band or lake enhancement on the backside. I would look at total precip vs. the snowfall maps. I think the euro was in the .60" range -- so that's a straight 10/1 ratio which won't be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 18Z GFS is just over 0.6" event total precip for the closest grid interpolation to KCLE. The latest AFD is below, I'm still thinking their totals are a bit on the high side. Time will tell. The main problem however with the lake effect event is building high pressure, a lowering inversion and dry air filling in behind the storm. Through Sunday morning, snow totals are 10-11 inches at KCLE and KERI, 6 to 7 KTOL, 11 to 12 KMFD and KCAK and around a foot KYNG. Additional snow will be possible with the lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 At this point going 6-12" for NE OH... The models have trended towards a sloppier/later phase and more progressive system, though the Euro/UK also came north some from their earlier runs due to less suppression from the PV lobe over Labrador/Newfoundland. This reduces the amount of QPF but does shift the axis north a bit. There will be a mid-level push of warmth into OH but right now all indications are that stays south of route 30 and probably closer to I-70 unless you're a big RGEM fan. Given the trend for a faster storm/less QPF overall, am holding off on any 12"+ totals for now...we will see if the progressive trend can stop soon. There will be enough lift for several hours of moderate to heavy snow on Saturday and that lift will be in the DGZ, so ratios will be decent. If the more amped NAM is right there's certainly potential for over a foot (the NAM probably supports a broad 15-20" this run), but again, the trend has been progressive so hedged under that but still a decent storm. The lake effect potential on the backside is less than stellar with a short fetch, strong-ish flow and dry air, but with some Lake Huron connection and good instability through the DGZ it could be enough to add another 1-3" wherever bands set up. All told feel a broad 6-12" is a good starting point...doubt it drops below 6", would take some work to go over 12" though stranger things have likely happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Thanks ohweather, seems very reasonable. I'm definitely interested in seeing the short range models tomorrow. Hopefully the trends are on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1" new snow overnight. Hopefully this morning model runs trend better than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 58 minutes ago, dta1984 said: 1" new snow overnight. Hopefully this morning model runs trend better than last night. Last nights model trends weren't good. Although, the Euro improved and moved north while the others were drier and more southern with the low track. Pretty amazing the amount of changes this close. I think OHWeather's forecast of 6 -12" is a safe bet. The backside/lake enhancement when winds turn northerly is what we need for the higher amounts. It's pretty rare to get a true lake huron connection but this is a good set-up, and it usually doesn't disappoint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looking at last nights Euro (since CLE seems to be riding it)... would certainly support CLE's snowfall forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, NEOH said: Looking at last nights Euro (since CLE seems to be riding it)... would certainly support CLE's snowfall forecast. I didn't realize the euro was that favorable. 1" mean qpf would be great with or without great ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opsmanager Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I have to drive to Erie, PA from Medina, OH on Monday morning. Planed on getting on the road around 9:00am-ish, but wondering if I'd be better off delaying to the last possible moment and leaving around 10:30am. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 46 minutes ago, dta1984 said: I didn't realize the euro was that favorable. 1" mean qpf would be great with or without great ratios. It was a good run. While the snowfall maps are fun to look at, the actual qpf output is much more accurate. The GFS ensemble mean is 1". Pretty good agreement in the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 48 minutes ago, opsmanager said: I have to drive to Erie, PA from Medina, OH on Monday morning. Planed on getting on the road around 9:00am-ish, but wondering if I'd be better off delaying to the last possible moment and leaving around 10:30am. Any thoughts? I would think the major roads should be in good shape by that point. Will definitely have a lot of blowing snow on the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 Z GFS did a bit better with event total precip for CLE. About 0.75". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 What a roller coaster ride this has been. It seems each 0z suite, things trend worse for us, then readjust at 12z. It's been a nightmare to forecast. I think 6-12 is a good bet, as well. Could even be more, could even be less. Time to start now-casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, amt5626 said: What a roller coaster ride this has been. It seems each 0z suite, things trend worse for us, then readjust at 12z. It's been a nightmare to forecast. I think 6-12 is a good bet, as well. Could even be more, could even be less. Time to start now-casting. Yeah. Like watching windshield wipers. Definitely good 12z runs so far. Time to now-cast as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 CLE just issued a WSW - upped snowfall amounts slightly. If 12z trends verify that may go up some. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 11 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and north central and northeast Ohio. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 AM EST Monday. The heaviest snow will fall from late Saturday into Saturday evening. Lake effect snows will develop in the secondary snow belt Sunday morning and persist into Sunday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Blowing and drifting snow will develop Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Pulled this image from a met I follow on twitter. Sounds like the 700mb low was further north than expected, while the shortwave dug further south allowing heights to rise in the east, along with a flat TPV -- all of which favor a more northern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That looks a lot like a Crankywx graphic ^ For NE OH ended up going with a broad 6-10" area. I think the heaviest snow does stay south both with the warm air advection push during the late morning and afternoon and with the evening deform...but, a prolonged period of favorable jet dynamics and isentropic lift causing upward motion in the dendrite growth zone should yield a prolonged period of light to occasionally moderate snow with good ratios. With modest lake effect on the back side through Sunday evening feel 6-10" is easily doable. If the evening deform band can trend a bit farther north can see how spots see over 10" farther north, but my current hunch is that doesn't happen...worth watching though. The WAA snow largely goes south of NW OH so expect lower amounts there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That is his graphic. Do you know him? Seems very knowledgeable. His insight is really helpful to an amateur. I hope your forecast busts on the low side of course :)... but seriously, seems reasonable. Appreciate you coming back to visit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 30 minutes ago, NEOH said: That is his graphic. Do you know him? Seems very knowledgeable. His insight is really helpful to an amateur. I hope your forecast busts on the low side of course :)... but seriously, seems reasonable. Appreciate you coming back to visit us. I don’t personally know him but also follow him on Twitter. Hopefully you guys get plenty of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The 00 Z and 06 Z runs weren't kind to CLE. 6" tops for the airport more south and east. Per the GFS it should have started snowing hours ago, yet it looks like it will be dry until at least 10 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 25 minutes ago, HO1088 said: The 00 Z and 06 Z runs weren't kind to CLE. 6" tops for the airport more south and east. I didn't notice any dramatic shifts. Still think 6-12" is a good bet. The only concern I have at this point is all of the convection in the south stopping moisture transport north. If 6" is the basement I still won't complain given how rare it is to get a decent synoptic storm around here. The euro has been rock steady at .8" of precip... so I'm riding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Things seem to be looking a little better this morning. Definitely doesn't seem any worse. Nam trying to come north with the deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opsmanager Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Should start snowing any time now here in Medina County.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opsmanager Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Currently about 2.5 inches on the ground here in Medina County. Going to keep an eye on total over the next 24 hours or so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Things seem to be looking a little better this morning. Definitely doesn't seem any worse. Nam trying to come north with the deformation band. 12z nam and rgem bumped up precip along with the hrrr. Good sign. Better than going in the other direction. Snow should be starting soon. That dry ENE wind always slows the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opsmanager Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, NEOH said: 12z nam and rgem bumped up precip along with the hrrr. Good sign. Better than going in the other direction. Snow should be starting soon. That dry ENE wind always slows the onset. Heavy snow started here in Medina about 15 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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