Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

57 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

That's all snow right?  Any mixing issues?  With ratios that would be incredible!

Yep. All snow. 

[NEOH]

16 minutes ago, amt5626 said:

Hey all,

Long time lurker here. Haven't posted in quite some time. With this storm potential, figured I'd try to post in here a bit more!

Quick update on my whereabouts. Just graduated last spring from Penn State with a degree in meteorology and currently working on my masters at SUNY Albany. Loved being in school so much that I wanted to stay for a couple more years!

Anyways, the European is almost unbelievably good for our area. Looking at the ensembles further solidifies the likelihood of big snows in northern OH. Recent GFS runs aren't half bad either, easily giving a foot + for all of us here. Furthermore, the lake effect behind this will also be something to write home about.

And yes, those monstrous QPFs are all snow in the north central and western parts of the state. Temps at the surface will be in the mid 20s for most of the heaviest snow, crashing into the teens near the back portion. This should lead to decent ratios. Will be fun to look at model soundings as we get closer in time to the event.

The energy associated with our pesky Thursday evening/night clipper is just off the West Coast right now. Once that gets fully sampled tomorrow, we should have a higher degree of certainty in the weekend system. Rooting for a weaker clipper.

Thanks for the post. Great to have a met in the area. Going to be a long week of model watching. Would the weaker clipper allow for more amplification of the weekend storm? 

[amt5626]

4 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Thanks for the post. Great to have a met in the area. Going to be a long week of model watching. Would the weaker clipper allow for more amplification of the weekend storm? 

This would appear to be the case. The weaker clipper is allowing for higher heights in the East, thus amplifying the trough. Another player will be the pressing high to the north. If it trends stronger, than the baroclinic zone should strengthen and cold air should stay in place longer, helping the southern areas where the changeover will/may occur. The 0z Euro appears to show a stronger "banana high" like the GFS depicts encapsulating this storm. 

Note how the heights along the East Coast are gradually getting higher in the last four GFS runs as the clipper moves by us:

 

[NEOH]

1 minute ago, amt5626 said:

This would appear to be the case. The weaker clipper is allowing for higher heights in the East, thus amplifying the trough. Another player will be the pressing high to the north. If it trends stronger, than the baroclinic zone should strengthen and cold air should stay in place longer, helping the southern areas where the changeover will/may occur. The 0z Euro appears to show a stronger "banana high" like the GFS depicts encapsulating this storm. 

Note how the heights along the East Coast are gradually getting higher in the last four GFS runs as the clipper moves by us:

 

 

Thanks for the info. Makes sense. 

[OHweather]

I would say be careful, you have a fair amount of margin for error before mixing comes into play and I don't think that becomes a concern north of Rt 30, but we've seen worse trends.  Given that mixing is a long way from being a legitimate concern and it'd have to trend considerably weaker (when the overall trend the last several cycles has been more amped) this one looks pretty good for northern Ohio...5 days to go... 

[NEOH]

31 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I would say be careful, you have a fair amount of margin for error before mixing comes into play and I don't think that becomes a concern north of Rt 30, but we've seen worse trends.  Given that mixing is a long way from being a legitimate concern and it'd have to trend considerably weaker (when the overall trend the last several cycles has been more amped) this one looks pretty good for northern Ohio...5 days to go... 

Thanks for dropping in with your thoughts. Yeah, too amped and the mix line would get close. Feeling pretty good about it at this point but its still a long ways out. 

[dta1984]

Another day of great euro and gfs runs.  Still hesitant to bite on it, we've been burned too many times. 

[NEOH]

33 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Another day of great euro and gfs runs.  Still hesitant to bite on it, we've been burned too many times. 

Yep. Another good day of model runs. Details are still TBD but its fair to say that we have some buffer to the south and north at this point, with good model consensus. Can't ask for more than that 4 days out. We'll have a pretty clear picture come Thursday. Unless something dramatically changes no need to sweat each model run. 

[amt5626]

Agreed. Still like where we are right now. Wouldn't really pick anywhere else to be at the moment, as exact details are too hard to pinpoint. 18z GFS came a bit north for what it's worth. Mix line even gets pretty close to the lakeshore. Meanwhile, EPS seem locked in last few runs. Widespread foot + mean for all of N OH on the 12z. Expect the operational Euro to bounce around the EPS suite at this point as small upper level changes develop due to timing/speed of the northern and southern waves.

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, amt5626 said:

Agreed. Still like where we are right now. Wouldn't really pick anywhere else to be at the moment, as exact details are too hard to pinpoint. 18z GFS came a bit north for what it's worth. Mix line even gets pretty close to the lakeshore. Meanwhile, EPS seem locked in last few runs. Widespread foot + mean for all of N OH on the 12z. Expect the operational Euro to bounce around the EPS suite at this point as small upper level changes develop due to timing/speed of the northern and southern waves.

Everything is still on track. Any small changes in track are noise at this point... and most important to those riding the edge. Not saying things couldn't change but continuity is really good right now. 

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, amt5626 said:

Agreed. Still like where we are right now. Wouldn't really pick anywhere else to be at the moment, as exact details are too hard to pinpoint. 18z GFS came a bit north for what it's worth. Mix line even gets pretty close to the lakeshore. Meanwhile, EPS seem locked in last few runs. Widespread foot + mean for all of N OH on the 12z. Expect the operational Euro to bounce around the EPS suite at this point as small upper level changes develop due to timing/speed of the northern and southern waves.

Really hard to go against the euro given its reliability. Feel much better having the euro showing a favorable solution given this time frame it is in its wheelhouse. Again, come Thursday we'll have a much better picture so I'm not overly concerned about 40 mile GFS north/south bumps every 6 hour cycle.

[amt5626]

58 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Everything is still on track. Any small changes in track are noise at this point... and most important to those riding the edge. Not saying things couldn't change but continuity is really good right now. 

As soon as we start feeling comfortable, the 18z EPS show some more of the southeasterly solutions, bringing down the mean a bit and shifting it southeastward. See what 0z says later tonight. Nothing crazy now, but if we see another tick in the same direction, might be a cause for concern.

[tim123]

Map of totals?

[NEOH]

7 minutes ago, amt5626 said:

As soon as we start feeling comfortable, the 18z EPS show some more of the southeasterly solutions, bringing down the mean a bit and shifting it southeastward. See what 0z says later tonight. Nothing crazy now, but if we see another tick in the same direction, might be a cause for concern.

Good to hear. Per ORH in the NE sub, a SE trend is typical in this time frame until 48 hours out when the "latent heat release" causes a shift back to the NW.

[amt5626]

Can't post the maps, as they are from a subscription service. Definitely an increase in members to the south, with a majority cluster similar to the 12z. 

Still in the windshield wiper phase. Models may start to react in some interesting ways to new sampled data over the next couple days. Would be awesome to see some good homestretch adjustments.

[amt5626]

0z GFS bringing the southern branch SW energy a good bit further south, with the northern stream lagging behind some. Not looking good this run.

Edit: By far the worst run of the GFS for the southern Great Lakes yet. Advisory / borderline warning snows at best for most of OH.

[NEOH]

Good read and analysis on the storm and potential outcomes - http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e011619b.htm

I would definitely give it until tomorrow before leaning in any one direction.

[NEOH]

Looking forward to tomorrow’s model runs. Hopefully there will be some resolution at that point. Despite differences in the low track seems like we are in line for a nice storm. Some better than other obviously. Interesting that the euro is the most southern solution at this point. We’ll see who caves tomorrow.

[HO1088]

It's so rare we get a decent synoptic snow storm in NE Ohio.   I remain skeptical.

[amt5626]

0z guidance so far not really telling us much. Everything generally holding onto their respective solutions with small adjustments here and there. Tomorrow should be much more telling.

[OHweather]

The reason for the sort of SE trend on some models has been due to the polar vortex being focused a bit farther east, making it harder for the southern piece to sneak ahead of the western lobe of it and phase, and also causing more confluence in the height field over the NE and a stronger surface high.  The GFS and CMC were faster with the southern piece and still phased, while the Euro, NAM, and UK lagged and didn't phase, hence their less impressive solutions. 

Given how strong/pressing the polar vortex is, I'd definitely be worried more about suppression than mixing, that's for sure.  The 0z GFS and Canadian inched towards a later phase, but changes were borderline noise level...will be interesting to see if the UK and Euro hold.  My initial call for the Cleveland/Akron area would be 5-8" but with some more upside if there's an earlier phase.  I think even if it doesn't phase well the over-running snow would be decent (and probably good ratios) so you should see a decent amount up there.  Would hate to have to put out a number for Columbus because they really could go either way.  Because NW NJ dams cold air well and the airmass to the NE is frigid, any QPF that isn't snow here will be sleet/freezing rain.  So I am selfishly hoping for the slightly more suppressed route, as exciting as 1.50"+ QPF as "not snow, not rain" would be. 

[NEOH]

8 hours ago, OHweather said:

The reason for the sort of SE trend on some models has been due to the polar vortex being focused a bit farther east, making it harder for the southern piece to sneak ahead of the western lobe of it and phase, and also causing more confluence in the height field over the NE and a stronger surface high.  The GFS and CMC were faster with the southern piece and still phased, while the Euro, NAM, and UK lagged and didn't phase, hence their less impressive solutions. 

Given how strong/pressing the polar vortex is, I'd definitely be worried more about suppression than mixing, that's for sure.  The 0z GFS and Canadian inched towards a later phase, but changes were borderline noise level...will be interesting to see if the UK and Euro hold.  My initial call for the Cleveland/Akron area would be 5-8" but with some more upside if there's an earlier phase.  I think even if it doesn't phase well the over-running snow would be decent (and probably good ratios) so you should see a decent amount up there.  Would hate to have to put out a number for Columbus because they really could go either way.  Because NW NJ dams cold air well and the airmass to the NE is frigid, any QPF that isn't snow here will be sleet/freezing rain.  So I am selfishly hoping for the slightly more suppressed route, as exciting as 1.50"+ QPF as "not snow, not rain" would be. 

Just looked at the overnight model runs. Looks like they held. Euro seems to be on its own with the position further south, although the low it is elongated to the north. Doesn't make a lot of difference in terms of sensible weather though. Everything should be sampled today so we'll see what/if any major changes take place. An earlier phase would be ideal for this area. 

[HO1088]

12Z GFS shows 0.61" for CLE for the event, so that's about 7-8".   

[NEOH]

7 minutes ago, HO1088 said:

12Z GFS shows 0.61" for CLE for the event, so that's about 7-8".   

The only caveat for our area is how much lake enhancement contributes once winds turn northerly. Ratio's go up considerably as the colder air moves in. It will be interesting to see if the euro stays with the southern solution this afternoon. 

[HO1088]

Definitely a storm for New England.

[amt5626]

Euro took a good step back to the north for a change. Hopefully the EPS and 0z run keep up the trends so far today. Still want to see another good 50 mile shift by the Euro and we should be looking pretty good.

[NEOH]

13 minutes ago, amt5626 said:

Euro took a good step back to the north for a change. Hopefully the EPS and 0z run keep up the trends so far today. Still want to see another good 50 mile shift by the Euro and we should be looking pretty good.

Nice to see the Euro come north somewhat. Thought the other models would cave to the Euro but it didn't happen. Despite a more northward track it looks it cut back qpf. A blend of the models isn't a bad scenario for Northern Ohio. Not a bad 12z run across the board. 

[NEOH]

Good stuff -- 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 15 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and north central   and northeast Ohio.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through late Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to   impossible. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

[amt5626]

Quite a bold forecast by CLE. Could see these totals verifying, though, especially with today's trends. Would like to see models bump up the QPF some as we get closer. It seems that the heaviest snow should set up around or a bit south of I-76 and then areas pointing east.

 

 

[NEOH]

9 minutes ago, amt5626 said:

Quite a bold forecast by CLE. Could see these totals verifying, though, especially with today's trends. Would like to see models bump up the QPF some as we get closer. It seems that the heaviest snow should set up around or a bit south of I-76 and then areas pointing east.

 

 

I was thinking it was a bit bullish as well. But ratio's will improve significantly as the storm passes. We'll have a due north wind trajectory so moisture from Lake Huron will be coming over the lake as well. The fluff on Sunday will add up quickly.