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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


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14 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

A little slick out this morning, had steady sleet and some freezing rain on the way to work.  Roads weren't terrible, but definitely slick.  

And finally.......a little bit of lake effect to track for mid week.  CLE mentions W then NW winds. While not a huge event, it will be nice for things to look like winter again.  

I was out around 5:45am and it was icy. Finally some snow to track. Pretty good wind direction for our area this week. Only question is moisture... as we've seen this season the better moisture is in W NY. A few inches of snow would certainly be a huge improvement though. 

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What a nice spring... I mean mid-winter morning out there with temps in the 50's. Even has that spring smell to the air. Tomorrow will feel and look much different thankfully. Not sure what to think about the LES potential. Looks like the best moisture will stay NE of the area in W NY again. With a short fetch (300 degrees or so) we need decent moisture for appreciable snowfall. Any way it will be nice to get back to winter for a few days. And just having the grass/mud covered will be a win. 

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25 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Sure feels nice!  Wasn't expecting the storms this morning.  The Nam definitely has trended in the wrong direction for the lake effect.  Wrfs aren't terrible.  Either way, tomorrow will surely feel different.  

Yep. The Chautauqua ridge looks to be ground zero. An upstream connection would certainly help around here. Wrf's are much better than the NAM. 

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Just received an automated email from CLE NWS - 

Dear Snow Spotters, Happy New Year!

Some of you may have had the pleasure of waking up to 50 degrees and thunderstorms this morning with some small hail and a couple rumbles of thunder. We may even get another round of thunderstorms this evening ahead of a cold front! Then, everything changes over to snow and we will get our first lake effect snow outbreak of the season as temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s. That crazy Ohio and Pennsylvania weather...

This email just serves as a notice to dig out those snow boards out and get them ready for what has already been an interesting week of weather. I think everyone will see some snow tonight and into tomorrow morning. (Perhaps only a half an inch at best for you NW Ohio folks, sorry!) Then, all eyes turn to the snow belt of NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania for what could be 2 days full of snow.

 

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12z Wrf nmm and arw2 look great.  Crazy, severe storms to accumulating snow in 12 hours !

Is that snow spotter email normal before a snow?  Sure hope it's 2 full days of snow lol.  

 

Edit; just saw wwa from CLE for 5-9".  Seems bullish, but maybe ratios will work in our favor?

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22 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

12z Wrf nmm and arw2 look great.  Crazy, severe storms to accumulating snow in 12 hours !

Is that snow spotter email normal before a snow?  Sure hope it's 2 full days of snow lol.  

What a day of weather... currently under a severe t'storm warning and winter weather advisory. CLE calling for 5-9"... which seems a bit bullish. But BUF increased the totals for their area as well. With the higher winds speeds upslope locals such as ours can do well. A rare event where areas south of 322 will do better. 

edit: They don't normally send spotter emails before. It just hasn't snowed significantly for so long they probably assumed no one was paying attention to the weather. 

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15 hours ago, NEOH said:

What a day of weather... currently under a severe t'storm warning and winter weather advisory. CLE calling for 5-9"... which seems a bit bullish. But BUF increased the totals for their area as well. With the higher winds speeds upslope locals such as ours can do well. A rare event where areas south of 322 will do better. 

edit: They don't normally send spotter emails before. It just hasn't snowed significantly for so long they probably assumed no one was paying attention to the weather. 

Ahhh ok, figured that might be the case.  

Quite the shock this morning, eyeballing an inch or so, and slick roads.   Everything seems to still be looking good. Overnight wrfs were juiced.  

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35 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Ahhh ok, figured that might be the case.  

Quite the shock this morning, eyeballing an inch or so, and slick roads.   Everything seems to still be looking good. Overnight wrfs were juiced.  

What a change from yesterday morning! Nice to have snow on the ground again. Yep, everything looks good at this point. Would be nice to get an upstream connection in the area. Winds stay at 290 for awhile which is a decent fetch. Once winds go NW'erly we'll probably just have that "green blob" appearance over the higher terrain instead of banding. Long duration light to mod event. 

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33 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Radar definitely seems to be intensifying the past hour and transitioning to lake effect.  3-4" eyeballing in Chardon. 

Its supposed to pick-up later this afternoon and tonight. Definitely not as much snow here but its coming down now. Going to be tough to measure with the strong winds. 

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1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Its supposed to pick-up later this afternoon and tonight. Definitely not as much snow here but its coming down now. Going to be tough to measure with the strong winds. 

Ya, looks to be a band right through chagrin, and another in northern geauga.  Winds are really blowing the snow around, low visibilities here.  

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48 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Measured 1.5" new snow since 6pm yesterday.  Event total at 6.5".   Bands on the west side look nice, surprised Cuyahoga isn't under an advisory.  

That band in Cuyahoga must be intense. We've had a few bursts here under lighter returns and it was a whiteout. 

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2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Wonder if we would get any lake enhancement with the weekend storm?  Our window for lake effect is closing.....some of the cold being shown would surely ice up the lake in the next few weeks.  

It has been quite some time since there has been a signal like this for a significant storm in this area. We have some room on the north and south side as is stands right now. Being 5 or so days out its nice to have the Euro looking good. There would definitely be lake enhancement on the backside as winds come around from the Northeast to the North... especially with ample moisture and cold 850 temps. Pretty much the ideal set-up for Northern Ohio. 

The Thursday system would be a nice appetizer leading up to the weekend as well. The only concern I have at this point is this becoming more suppressed but we have some wiggle room. Going to be a long week of model watching but the consistency is great to see. 

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Hey all,

Long time lurker here. Haven't posted in quite some time. With this storm potential, figured I'd try to post in here a bit more!

Quick update on my whereabouts. Just graduated last spring from Penn State with a degree in meteorology and currently working on my masters at SUNY Albany. Loved being in school so much that I wanted to stay for a couple more years!

Anyways, the European is almost unbelievably good for our area. Looking at the ensembles further solidifies the likelihood of big snows in northern OH. Recent GFS runs aren't half bad either, easily giving a foot + for all of us here. Furthermore, the lake effect behind this will also be something to write home about.

And yes, those monstrous QPFs are all snow in the north central and western parts of the state. Temps at the surface will be in the mid 20s for most of the heaviest snow, crashing into the teens near the back portion. This should lead to decent ratios. Will be fun to look at model soundings as we get closer in time to the event.

The energy associated with our pesky Thursday evening/night clipper is just off the West Coast right now. Once that gets fully sampled tomorrow, we should have a higher degree of certainty in the weekend system. Rooting for a weaker clipper.

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