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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


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36 minutes ago, HO1088 said:

Just changed over to snow here in Chagrin at 16:00.   Ground is really soggy.

Yeah, with marginal temps the soaked ground will hurt accumulations without heavy rates. It will be interesting to see how things progress tonight. Seemed like the afternoon models have kept the vort max/additional moisture further to the Northeast for tomorrow night. Hoping that's not a trend. WNY will do very well. 

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21 minutes ago, HO1088 said:

About 4.5" of snow here in Chagrin this morning.  Everything is white and the snow is wet and heavy, it's good to see that here every once in a while.

 

No lake effect to speak of.  Did the cold and dark November significantly limit lake effect this season?  

4.75 here, definitely a heavier low ratio snow. 

I could be wrong, but pretty sure the lake effect is this evening and overnight through tomorrow.  Last night was more lake enhanced.  Let's hope the lake effect can deliver later. 

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2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

12z arws do bring roughly .5" qpf this way.   Aligns with the wwa for 4-7".

Things look on track for tonight. Good to see bands already over the lake... even with really low inversion. The colder temps and additional moisture should increase the strength later this evening.  

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Tonight-Wednesday's leg of the event doesn't look as impressive for NE OH as yesterday when I looked...looks like the Euro idea of keeping the deep moisture farther east will pan out.  There's a little shear but it's a reasonably well-aligned WNW flow for quite a while through Wednesday afternoon that isn't too strong with just enough instability and inversion heights of 5-7k feet, so there will still be accumulating snow probably from northern Lorain County points east, but I just don't know if the intensity will be there for more than a broad 1-4" of additional snow, focused wherever the convergence band develops and maybe in the higher terrain of northern Geauga as well.  NW PA still gets into the deep moisture with a longer fetch and more terrain, so additional amounts in eastern inland Erie County will still probably justify the warning, especially since some of those areas already have 6-12" and will probably get that much more...though west of I-79 there will likely be a drop off somewhere to much more pedestrian amounts. 

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41 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Tonight-Wednesday's leg of the event doesn't look as impressive for NE OH as yesterday when I looked...looks like the Euro idea of keeping the deep moisture farther east will pan out.  There's a little shear but it's a reasonably well-aligned WNW flow for quite a while through Wednesday afternoon that isn't too strong with just enough instability and inversion heights of 5-7k feet, so there will still be accumulating snow probably from northern Lorain County points east, but I just don't know if the intensity will be there for more than a broad 1-4" of additional snow, focused wherever the convergence band develops and maybe in the higher terrain of northern Geauga as well.  NW PA still gets into the deep moisture with a longer fetch and more terrain, so additional amounts in eastern inland Erie County will still probably justify the warning, especially since some of those areas already have 6-12" and will probably get that much more...though west of I-79 there will likely be a drop off somewhere to much more pedestrian amounts. 

CLE mentioned that the trough has become diffuse. Looks like wherever the heaviest/convergence band sets up it will stay there awhile since the flow doesn’t shift much. Hoping that isn’t too far to the east.

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43 minutes ago, NEOH said:

CLE mentioned that the trough has become diffuse. Looks like wherever the heaviest/convergence band sets up it will stay there awhile since the flow doesn’t shift much. Hoping that isn’t too far to the east.

Yeah, wherever the best band sets up could still see a few inches as winds don’t move a ton, I just don’t think it’ll be that intense.  Winds are roughly 290 and reasonably strong so I certainly think the Cleveland metro and southern Snowbelt should see something.  

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Jeesh, I wonder if NE OH will get any decent lake effect this winter.

 

It was frustrating last night seeing all the healthy plumes on the leeward side of Lake Michigan while we had flurries and at best disorganized lines of -SHSN.

 

I can't wait for the gloomy, cold and wet November to be over.  I think it really messed up our chances this winter for lake effect.  CLE is over 90% cloud cover this month in their climate CF6 report.  I wouldn't be surprised if the lake gets a decent amount of ice on it come December if this pattern doesn't change.

 

November will finish about -6 degrees below normal with over 5" of precip when it's all said and done.  

CF6.JPG

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27 minutes ago, HO1088 said:

Jeesh, I wonder if NE OH will get any decent lake effect this winter.

 

It was frustrating last night seeing all the healthy plumes on the leeward side of Lake Michigan while we had flurries and at best disorganized lines of -SHSN.

 

I can't wait for the gloomy, cold and wet November to be over.  I think it really messed up our chances this winter for lake effect.  CLE is over 90% cloud cover this month in their climate CF6 report.  I wouldn't be surprised if the lake gets a decent amount of ice on it come December if this pattern doesn't change.

 

November will finish about -6 degrees below normal with over 5" of precip when it's all said and done.  

CF6.JPG

Ya, the band was in a good location, just not very organized.  

On the flip side, if you look at the past few winters, we are quite a bit ahead in snowfall.  I'm a little over 10", which is doing good for November.  We will get some warm weather to slow down the lake freeze.  Seems like a few of our bigger events last year came from heat flux from the frozen lake or seeding from other lakes.  

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Bummer the LES never strengthened last night. Not often we get a perfect fetch of 290 for such a prolonged period. Had other parameters been better it could have been really good. Oh well... I guess its a good reminder that not every events pans out. Hopefully we'll have a few more shots while the lake is relatively warm. 

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16 hours ago, NEOH said:

Kind of weird to see the snow falling after yesterday's warmth. I have to admit 60 felt nice. But now snowing pretty good in Chagrin. Looks like a couple of inches possible tonight. 

About a half inch overnight.  Maybe an inch in Chardon.  Looks like the Thurs-fri timeframe could be our next shot.  Nam wants to bring .4" + qpf our way.  

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Just now, HO1088 said:

Scott Sabol on FOX8 this morning revealed November 2018 was the 3rd cloudiest November in Cleveland's recorded history at 84%.

It sure felt that way. What a dreary month. Looking good for 3-4" this afternoon/tonight. Hopefully the waa snows can develop a little further to the northwest and push through. Models have it developing overhead and moving southeast. 

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1 minute ago, HO1088 said:

Scott Sabol on FOX8 this morning revealed November 2018 was the 3rd cloudiest November in Cleveland's recorded history at 84%.

Wow incredible!

Cle has 4-6" in the forecast for today and tonight.  Seems a little ambitious, we are due though. 

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