HO1088 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Just changed over to snow here in Chagrin at 16:00. Ground is really soggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 36 minutes ago, HO1088 said: Just changed over to snow here in Chagrin at 16:00. Ground is really soggy. Yeah, with marginal temps the soaked ground will hurt accumulations without heavy rates. It will be interesting to see how things progress tonight. Seemed like the afternoon models have kept the vort max/additional moisture further to the Northeast for tomorrow night. Hoping that's not a trend. WNY will do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1" of snow here in Findlay as of 445 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 So far the west side is getting the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Snowing pretty hard here... heavier stuff finally pushing through. Roads are covered surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benadrill Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Really surprised with how heavy it is snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1" of snow here in Erie County. Biggest snow of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 About 4.5" of snow here in Chagrin this morning. Everything is white and the snow is wet and heavy, it's good to see that here every once in a while. No lake effect to speak of. Did the cold and dark November significantly limit lake effect this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 21 minutes ago, HO1088 said: About 4.5" of snow here in Chagrin this morning. Everything is white and the snow is wet and heavy, it's good to see that here every once in a while. No lake effect to speak of. Did the cold and dark November significantly limit lake effect this season? 4.75 here, definitely a heavier low ratio snow. I could be wrong, but pretty sure the lake effect is this evening and overnight through tomorrow. Last night was more lake enhanced. Let's hope the lake effect can deliver later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Measured 3.5" this morning. What a wet and heavy snow... looks great out there. Too bad the ground is so wet underneath. Hopefully the LES delivers later today. Nice to see the radar starting to blossom over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 12z arws do bring roughly .5" qpf this way. Aligns with the wwa for 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 hours ago, dta1984 said: 12z arws do bring roughly .5" qpf this way. Aligns with the wwa for 4-7". Things look on track for tonight. Good to see bands already over the lake... even with really low inversion. The colder temps and additional moisture should increase the strength later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Tonight-Wednesday's leg of the event doesn't look as impressive for NE OH as yesterday when I looked...looks like the Euro idea of keeping the deep moisture farther east will pan out. There's a little shear but it's a reasonably well-aligned WNW flow for quite a while through Wednesday afternoon that isn't too strong with just enough instability and inversion heights of 5-7k feet, so there will still be accumulating snow probably from northern Lorain County points east, but I just don't know if the intensity will be there for more than a broad 1-4" of additional snow, focused wherever the convergence band develops and maybe in the higher terrain of northern Geauga as well. NW PA still gets into the deep moisture with a longer fetch and more terrain, so additional amounts in eastern inland Erie County will still probably justify the warning, especially since some of those areas already have 6-12" and will probably get that much more...though west of I-79 there will likely be a drop off somewhere to much more pedestrian amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 41 minutes ago, OHweather said: Tonight-Wednesday's leg of the event doesn't look as impressive for NE OH as yesterday when I looked...looks like the Euro idea of keeping the deep moisture farther east will pan out. There's a little shear but it's a reasonably well-aligned WNW flow for quite a while through Wednesday afternoon that isn't too strong with just enough instability and inversion heights of 5-7k feet, so there will still be accumulating snow probably from northern Lorain County points east, but I just don't know if the intensity will be there for more than a broad 1-4" of additional snow, focused wherever the convergence band develops and maybe in the higher terrain of northern Geauga as well. NW PA still gets into the deep moisture with a longer fetch and more terrain, so additional amounts in eastern inland Erie County will still probably justify the warning, especially since some of those areas already have 6-12" and will probably get that much more...though west of I-79 there will likely be a drop off somewhere to much more pedestrian amounts. CLE mentioned that the trough has become diffuse. Looks like wherever the heaviest/convergence band sets up it will stay there awhile since the flow doesn’t shift much. Hoping that isn’t too far to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 43 minutes ago, NEOH said: CLE mentioned that the trough has become diffuse. Looks like wherever the heaviest/convergence band sets up it will stay there awhile since the flow doesn’t shift much. Hoping that isn’t too far to the east. Yeah, wherever the best band sets up could still see a few inches as winds don’t move a ton, I just don’t think it’ll be that intense. Winds are roughly 290 and reasonably strong so I certainly think the Cleveland metro and southern Snowbelt should see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Jeesh, I wonder if NE OH will get any decent lake effect this winter. It was frustrating last night seeing all the healthy plumes on the leeward side of Lake Michigan while we had flurries and at best disorganized lines of -SHSN. I can't wait for the gloomy, cold and wet November to be over. I think it really messed up our chances this winter for lake effect. CLE is over 90% cloud cover this month in their climate CF6 report. I wouldn't be surprised if the lake gets a decent amount of ice on it come December if this pattern doesn't change. November will finish about -6 degrees below normal with over 5" of precip when it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 27 minutes ago, HO1088 said: Jeesh, I wonder if NE OH will get any decent lake effect this winter. It was frustrating last night seeing all the healthy plumes on the leeward side of Lake Michigan while we had flurries and at best disorganized lines of -SHSN. I can't wait for the gloomy, cold and wet November to be over. I think it really messed up our chances this winter for lake effect. CLE is over 90% cloud cover this month in their climate CF6 report. I wouldn't be surprised if the lake gets a decent amount of ice on it come December if this pattern doesn't change. November will finish about -6 degrees below normal with over 5" of precip when it's all said and done. Ya, the band was in a good location, just not very organized. On the flip side, if you look at the past few winters, we are quite a bit ahead in snowfall. I'm a little over 10", which is doing good for November. We will get some warm weather to slow down the lake freeze. Seems like a few of our bigger events last year came from heat flux from the frozen lake or seeding from other lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Bummer the LES never strengthened last night. Not often we get a perfect fetch of 290 for such a prolonged period. Had other parameters been better it could have been really good. Oh well... I guess its a good reminder that not every events pans out. Hopefully we'll have a few more shots while the lake is relatively warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 5.20" of liquid precip for me in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Kind of weird to see the snow falling after yesterday's warmth. I have to admit 60 felt nice. But now snowing pretty good in Chagrin. Looks like a couple of inches possible tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 hours ago, NEOH said: Kind of weird to see the snow falling after yesterday's warmth. I have to admit 60 felt nice. But now snowing pretty good in Chagrin. Looks like a couple of inches possible tonight. About a half inch overnight. Maybe an inch in Chardon. Looks like the Thurs-fri timeframe could be our next shot. Nam wants to bring .4" + qpf our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Saturday-Wednesday the European shows dry weather. That's very unprecedented here in Northeast Ohio in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Neat meso low feature near lake county this morning. Nam still shows 3-4" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Neat meso low feature near lake county this morning. Nam still shows 3-4" tomorrow. I noticed the high-res models seem to be a little juiced lately. 12z nam scaled back quite a bit from 6z. We'll see what the WRF's show a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Scott Sabol on FOX8 this morning revealed November 2018 was the 3rd cloudiest November in Cleveland's recorded history at 84%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, HO1088 said: Scott Sabol on FOX8 this morning revealed November 2018 was the 3rd cloudiest November in Cleveland's recorded history at 84%. It sure felt that way. What a dreary month. Looking good for 3-4" this afternoon/tonight. Hopefully the waa snows can develop a little further to the northwest and push through. Models have it developing overhead and moving southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, HO1088 said: Scott Sabol on FOX8 this morning revealed November 2018 was the 3rd cloudiest November in Cleveland's recorded history at 84%. Wow incredible! Cle has 4-6" in the forecast for today and tonight. Seems a little ambitious, we are due though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 One of the better fantasy storms I've seen on the 12z run of the euro yesterday. 06z GFS now has a similar set-up for in the 12/15 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NEOH said: One of the better fantasy storms I've seen on the 12z run of the euro yesterday. 06z GFS now has a similar set-up for in the 12/15 time frame. O man that's a doozy! Let's revisit that mid next week and see where it is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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