Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[HighTechEE]

I'm coming up to the SW CLE area this weekend to fish for Steelhead in the Rocky River with my brother-in-law, not sure I'm going to be able to dress warm enough (since it was near 90 just a few weeks ago)!

[NEOH]

12 hours ago, OHweather said:

My early impression is that this weekend won't do much...the cold shot is brief and winds quickly go back to the SW.  It'll be so cold that if a brief period of LES developed it'd accumulate inland, but I don't think there's much potential for a decent amount.  Next week's cold shot at this point looks much deeper/slower moving and could feature a west to northwest wind.  The lake to air temp differential should be extreme given lake waters still in the 50s and persistent signals for impressive to near record cold with this airmass, so details certainly to be worked out but that could lead to a significant event somewhere between Monday and Wednesday of next week. 

Thanks for dropping in. The cold shot does look transient over the weekend. Next week is still looking great... obviously lots of details still to be worked out. 

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, HighTechEE said:

I'm coming up to the SW CLE area this weekend to fish for Steelhead in the Rocky River with my brother-in-law, not sure I'm going to be able to dress warm enough (since it was near 90 just a few weeks ago)!

Definitely not the best of weekends for fishing. Hopefully the river won't be too cloudy from the recent rains. 

[dta1984]

18 hours ago, NEOH said:

Thanks for dropping in. The cold shot does look transient over the weekend. Next week is still looking great... obviously lots of details still to be worked out. 

Ya definitely looking forward to next week.  At the least, should have some flakes flying at times this weekend.  

[dta1984]

Nam 3k and ARW show a decent snow through Monday.  3-4" out here, 6" a little further north.  Some of that may be graupel though.  

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Nam 3k and ARW show a decent snow through Monday.  3-4" out here, 6" a little further north.  Some of that may be graupel though.  

There's a consistent signal on about every model for accumulating snowfall this the weekend. It will interesting to see how things play out as the snowfall window looks fairly brief... but at the very least flakes will be flying. The gfs continues with the eastern track for the storm early next week. A blend of the gfs and euro would be ideal for our area. 

[OHweather]

The lake effect Friday night through Saturday night is intriguing, though wind direction may not be great for some of you.

With the synoptic precip Friday morning temp profiles are close to supporting snow...there will be some dynamic cooling as lift is pretty good and the precip will be moderate, so the higher terrain in NE OH and NW PA will probably try to flip to snow for an hour or two...it may be enough to try to start lightly coating grassy surfaces and such...lakeshore probably just sees rain.  NW OH a bit colder and better timing so will probably be some grassy accums there to start Friday.

For the lake effect over the weekend, it's honestly more impressive than I initially thought parameter wise, but some questions about the duration and wind direction make it hard to be confident about a lot of snow falling in any given spot.  My impression based on the parameters alone is that someone will hit the 6"/12 hour or 8"/24 hour warning criteria, but a band will need to lock in somewhere for that to happen. 

The band will start taking shape late Friday evening as winds line up out of the WSW.  With an approaching upper-low and extreme instability developing, it will likely be intense...it may graze the Lake, Ashtabula, and Erie lakeshore for a time, but at some point between 1 AM and 5 AM Saturday will lift out over the lake and come inland south of BUF as winds go more SW.  The band will likely be mixed before midnight, but after midnight as 850mb temps crash to -10 to -12C by daybreak the band will be all snow/graupel down to the shoreline given its likely intensity.  Winds lock in for a few hours Saturday morning, which could allow the band to slow enough to drop substantial amounts on parts of SW NY along the lakeshore and inland into the southern Buffalo suburbs.  Instability will be extreme, with equilibrium heights of near 20k feet thanks to hilarious lake-to-500mb differentials of -45C (approaching -48C briefly).  Wind speeds will be strong, but when the band is completely parallel to the long axis of the lake that should allow it to be organized enough.  Given the instability, large-scale lift with the upper-low, full-lake fetch and strong convergence the band into SW NY will have a lot of lightning and likely contain very high rates...despite the wet snow, over 2" per hour will be possible.  Even though the duration is only a few hours, the possibility exists for up to a foot in SW NY if the band locks in Saturday morning.  This could graze northeastern Erie County but I suspect if it locks in it does so just up the shore from Erie proper...though they could get grazed for a time late Friday night/early Saturday and see some snow. 

The band will swing into most of the primary NW PA and NE OH Snowbelt Saturday afternoon as a surface trough pushes through and brings the winds around to the WNW over the lake.  It probably won't sit over the lakeshore for more than an hour or two as the wind shift is fairly sharp and abrupt, but given the likely instability and forcing it could drop a quick inch or two of snow/graupel near the shore.  As for how far south the band can push and what kind of amounts it can drop inland, winds on land don’t really back from WSW as the surface high starts building in quickly Saturday evening.  With WNW winds over the lake the band can probably get down to about Downtown and then push east across NE Cuyahoga and into northern Geauga, north of 322.  It should get into central and southern Ashtabula as well as most of Erie County, but likely struggles to push into Crawford PA.  It may maintain this southern extent for a few hours before drifting back north Saturday evening.  The upper support quickly departs late Saturday afternoon and the inversion height lowers substantially, so the band intensity will likely be more moderate when it reaches its southernmost point…it could drop a light/slushy accum on the Cuyahoga lakeshore from Downtown points NE and perhaps a quick 1-3” inland in a few hours.

Overnight Saturday night instability does remain sufficient as the ridge builds in and slowly backs winds over land and pushes the lake effect back up the shoreline.  With lightening wind speeds and lake to 850mb diffs remaining easily over 20C through the night, it wouldn’t surprise me if a moderate band or two does reorganize from parts of Lake County and perhaps the chimney of Geauga northeast across northern/central Ashtabula County and northern/central Erie County PA, perhaps into Chautauqua County NY as well later in the night.  This band won’t be as intense, but will have light winds and good convergence so should be organized and likely won’t move quickly, so it could drop another 2-6” overnight Saturday night into early Sunday where it sets up.

Overall the potential for heaviest snow will be Saturday morning in SW NY and perhaps extreme NE Erie County, and I’m thinking a quick 6-12” with that where the band sets up…shouldn’t have issues accumulating along the lake given temps aloft and the expected intensity.  Expecting a quick 1-4” across the primary Snowbelt as the band swings south Saturday afternoon/early evening before lifting back north…in Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties this is likely confined to along/north of 322 as it looks now.  I expect another few inches in the northern Snowbelt overnight Saturday night into early Sunday as bands re-organize and slowly drift north as the surface ridge builds in and as enough instability hangs on. 

Forgive the crude map, I never had a chance to make a nicer base that included NW PA and up to Buffalo last winter and don't right now either.  I will likely adjust this Friday at some point since I'm off and we're getting another monsoonal here tomorrow afternoon/evening, to nail down the SW NY band better and take another look at the Saturday night amounts/placement.

[NEOH]

Looks like winter out there this morning. It started snowing heavily around 6am. Grass, trees are covered... some streets have snow on them as well. 

[dta1984]

Right at 2" on the deck this morning.  Definitely a surprise!

[NEOH]

24 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Right at 2" on the deck this morning.  Definitely a surprise!

Yeah, definitely a surprise. I was up early and it was snowing hard. Given how warm the ground and pavement are I'm surprised it stuck so well. There's still snow in my parking lot but it has flipped to rain now. 

[NEOH]

11 hours ago, OHweather said:

The lake effect Friday night through Saturday night is intriguing, though wind direction may not be great for some of you.

 

With the synoptic precip Friday morning temp profiles are close to supporting snow...there will be some dynamic cooling as lift is pretty good and the precip will be moderate, so the higher terrain in NE OH and NW PA will probably try to flip to snow for an hour or two...it may be enough to try to start lightly coating grassy surfaces and such...lakeshore probably just sees rain.  NW OH a bit colder and better timing so will probably be some grassy accums there to start Friday.

 

For the lake effect over the weekend, it's honestly more impressive than I initially thought parameter wise, but some questions about the duration and wind direction make it hard to be confident about a lot of snow falling in any given spot.  My impression based on the parameters alone is that someone will hit the 6"/12 hour or 8"/24 hour warning criteria, but a band will need to lock in somewhere for that to happen. 

 

The band will start taking shape late Friday evening as winds line up out of the WSW.  With an approaching upper-low and extreme instability developing, it will likely be intense...it may graze the Lake, Ashtabula, and Erie lakeshore for a time, but at some point between 1 AM and 5 AM Saturday will lift out over the lake and come inland south of BUF as winds go more SW.  The band will likely be mixed before midnight, but after midnight as 850mb temps crash to -10 to -12C by daybreak the band will be all snow/graupel down to the shoreline given its likely intensity.  Winds lock in for a few hours Saturday morning, which could allow the band to slow enough to drop substantial amounts on parts of SW NY along the lakeshore and inland into the southern Buffalo suburbs.  Instability will be extreme, with equilibrium heights of near 20k feet thanks to hilarious lake-to-500mb differentials of -45C (approaching -48C briefly).  Wind speeds will be strong, but when the band is completely parallel to the long axis of the lake that should allow it to be organized enough.  Given the instability, large-scale lift with the upper-low, full-lake fetch and strong convergence the band into SW NY will have a lot of lightning and likely contain very high rates...despite the wet snow, over 2" per hour will be possible.  Even though the duration is only a few hours, the possibility exists for up to a foot in SW NY if the band locks in Saturday morning.  This could graze northeastern Erie County but I suspect if it locks in it does so just up the shore from Erie proper...though they could get grazed for a time late Friday night/early Saturday and see some snow. 

 

The band will swing into most of the primary NW PA and NE OH Snowbelt Saturday afternoon as a surface trough pushes through and brings the winds around to the WNW over the lake.  It probably won't sit over the lakeshore for more than an hour or two as the wind shift is fairly sharp and abrupt, but given the likely instability and forcing it could drop a quick inch or two of snow/graupel near the shore.  As for how far south the band can push and what kind of amounts it can drop inland, winds on land don’t really back from WSW as the surface high starts building in quickly Saturday evening.  With WNW winds over the lake the band can probably get down to about Downtown and then push east across NE Cuyahoga and into northern Geauga, north of 322.  It should get into central and southern Ashtabula as well as most of Erie County, but likely struggles to push into Crawford PA.  It may maintain this southern extent for a few hours before drifting back north Saturday evening.  The upper support quickly departs late Saturday afternoon and the inversion height lowers substantially, so the band intensity will likely be more moderate when it reaches its southernmost point…it could drop a light/slushy accum on the Cuyahoga lakeshore from Downtown points NE and perhaps a quick 1-3” inland in a few hours.

 

Overnight Saturday night instability does remain sufficient as the ridge builds in and slowly backs winds over land and pushes the lake effect back up the shoreline.  With lightening wind speeds and lake to 850mb diffs remaining easily over 20C through the night, it wouldn’t surprise me if a moderate band or two does reorganize from parts of Lake County and perhaps the chimney of Geauga northeast across northern/central Ashtabula County and northern/central Erie County PA, perhaps into Chautauqua County NY as well later in the night.  This band won’t be as intense, but will have light winds and good convergence so should be organized and likely won’t move quickly, so it could drop another 2-6” overnight Saturday night into early Sunday where it sets up.

 

Overall the potential for heaviest snow will be Saturday morning in SW NY and perhaps extreme NE Erie County, and I’m thinking a quick 6-12” with that where the band sets up…shouldn’t have issues accumulating along the lake given temps aloft and the expected intensity.  Expecting a quick 1-4” across the primary Snowbelt as the band swings south Saturday afternoon/early evening before lifting back north…in Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties this is likely confined to along/north of 322 as it looks now.  I expect another few inches in the northern Snowbelt overnight Saturday night into early Sunday as bands re-organize and slowly drift north as the surface ridge builds in and as enough instability hangs on. 

 

Forgive the crude map, I never had a chance to make a nicer base that included NW PA and up to Buffalo last winter and don't right now either.  I will likely adjust this Friday at some point since I'm off and we're getting another monsoonal here tomorrow afternoon/evening, to nail down the SW NY band better and take another look at the Saturday night amounts/placement.

 

Thanks for the dropping in with a forecast. I'm going to miss these this winter. For us on the southern fringes here's hoping the bands can shift a little further inland. Usually with a "weak" flow the winds have a hard time coming around to more of NW'erly direction. Winds will be rather strong so perhaps that might help. WRF's aren't too bad for 422 on north. 

[OHweather]

13 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Thanks for the dropping in with a forecast. I'm going to miss these this winter. For us on the southern fringes here's hoping the bands can shift a little further inland. Usually with a "weak" flow the winds have a hard time coming around to more of NW'erly direction. Winds will be rather strong so perhaps that might help. WRF's aren't too bad for 422 on north. 

The winds over the lake come around to about 290 which usually is good for down to 422, I’m just worried that the winds inland stay WSW.  It could be close for you at least.  This morning was definitely a surprise, must’ve come down hard.  Actually got a few sleet pellets here with temps in the low 40s so I guess I’m on the board this winter as well! 

[OHweather]

Since it's been pouring and 45 degrees here all afternoon/evening, one more pass at this...

A band will ramp up over the lake this evening by 7 or 8 PM as the first of a few troughs pushes across the lake.  Winds ahead of the trough are WSW if not SW, so this initial band will likely set up parallel to the shore and come inland into Buffalo and its immediate southern suburbs.  Temperatures ahead of the trough are cold enough for plenty of graupel given the developing instability, but don’t quite get cold enough for a change to all snow and potential accumulations until after it passes.  This band will likely push inland a bit and shift south of the Buffalo area by 11 PM or Midnight as the trough passes.  Winds behind this trough briefly come around to about 270 (due west) over the lake and remain firmly south of west overland.  This will likely push the trough into Erie County PA within 10 miles of the lake (as well as Chautauqua/northern Cattaraugus NY)…it will probably be able to graze Lake//northern Geauga/Ashtabula Ohio but will not push far inland.  As the trough pushes through temperatures will quickly fall to levels that typically support accumulation with intense, early-season bands so the precip will change to all snow/graupel.  This initial push will not last long and temps will only become supportive as it passes, so I’m guessing that other than perhaps some car toppings of graupel there won’t be any accums this evening in Buffalo proper…but could be a quick inch or two inland over southern Erie Co NY, and also where the band impacts in northern Erie Co PA and in Chautauqua/Cattaraugus.  There may be dustings in extreme NE OH if the band makes it on land there.

The winds quickly start backing again after 2 AM ahead of the next trough.  This will likely cause a more consolidated band to quickly re-develop that starts shifting up the shoreline.  As this occurs, extreme northern Ashtabula Co could get a dusting late tonight.  Parts of Erie Co PA will also likely get an hour or so of snow as the band lifts back north during the pre-dawn, and given its likely intensity that will cause some quick accumulations.  The winds by morning get to be WSW over water and nearly due SW over land.  This should still lift the band north of the vast majority of Erie Co PA…though it could graze the extreme NE portion.  Despite models taking the band into the Erie PA area into Chautauqua County in this time period, I simply don’t see how it can push inland that far south given the winds…this fits with the known bias of modelling being too far south with these bands.  I suspect it will sit near the lakeshore between Northeast, PA and Dunkirk, NY and then actually come inland near or a bit north of Dunkirk and affect extreme NE Chautauqua Co, the NW tip of Cattaraugus, and southern Erie Co NY, probably getting back into the southern Buffalo suburbs.  Winds will support the band in this general area for several hours from before sunrise Saturday through 1 or 2 PM. 

The character of the band and whether it actually stalls or keeps slowly moving will determine how much snow it can dump.  Extreme instability (lake to 850 diffs of 25C, lake to 700 diffs of 35C, and lake to 500mb diffs of 45 to briefly almost 50C) resulting in boundless inversion heights of 15-20k feet, deep moisture to above 10k feet, little directional shear and good synoptic support as a 500mb low moves just north of the lake suggest very heavy snow under the band.  Snow ratios won’t be much higher than 10:1, especially near the lake where they’ll be lower, but it will be puking thundersnow and will still pile up quickly, if there is an organized/persistent band.  The wind speeds in the boundary layer over the lake will be 35 to 40 knots which is stronger than preferable, but with a full-fetch of the lake, the flow favoring good shoreline convergence into SW NY, and broad synoptic convergence ahead of the approaching trough all argue for a persistent band.  Given the strong shoreline convergence in this area, I suspect the band will drift around in the same general area for 6-8 hours Saturday morning/early afternoon before the trough passage pushes it south.  This still isn’t a high confidence forecast, but given the likely rates if an organized band occurred the potential still remains for locally up to a foot of snow in a short time by early Saturday afternoon in SW NY, including southern Erie County NY and the southern Buffalo suburbs.  Given the wind speeds and short window, I will say that I’m not as confident as I would like in a focused area of persistent enough snow to get that, but I think the potential very easily exists with multiple factors still arguing for it.

As the trough pushes through the band will likely intensify back to the central basin, especially with some Lake Michigan pre-seeding, and then swing southeast into much of the Snowbelt from the western suburbs points east.  Winds on land are still not expected to veer north of WSW Saturday afternoon/evening over Ohio or NW PA, which is reasonable since the upper trough rapidly pulls east by that point and surface ridging builds in from the SW.  But, winds over the lake come around to 280-290 degrees (WNW) for several hours late Saturday afternoon through the entire evening.  This push over the lake should still allow for shoreline convergence over Cuyahoga County and perhaps even NE Lorain County for a time, allowing for the band to get into the immediate Cleveland area and western lakeshore, then moving inland near or north of 322 into the eastern suburbs and Geauga County.  It should push into central and southern Ashtabula County for a time, and though the inland penetration in NW PA will face similar issues to OH, their farther north location will likely allow the snow to briefly get as far south as northern Crawford County.  Instability is still moderate to borderline extreme by later Saturday afternoon as the band affects more of the NE OH and NW PA Snowbelt with inversion heights of over 10K feet, which along with strong convergence caused by the trough interacting with the shore should still allow for moderate to heavy snow.  Temps begin moderating some by later in the day so the lakeshore will likely be snow under the heaviest band but then may struggle once the intensity drops…so I’m thinking maybe a quick coating to 2” along the lake from Cleveland up through Ashtabula County, but not more with this band.  Inland it could be more like a quick 1-3” or so, especially if the band stalls for a few hours in the early-evening.

Overnight the low-levels remain very unstable over the lake and winds will remain well-aligned, with convergence continuing over the Snowbelt as surface high pressure continuing building in from the south.  Inversion heights and moisture depth decrease, but strong low-level instability, lack of shear, and convergence should still allow a moderate band or two to continuing through the night.  It will slowly lift north through the NE OH Snowbelt and into Erie County PA overnight.  Because the bands won’t be as intense and will slowly be moving, I’m lowering my expectations to 1-3” of additional overnight accumulations inland from the lake in the NE OH Snowbelt north of 322 and in the half of Erie County PA closer to the lake…suspect southern Erie County dries out overnight.  The remnant band will get into SW NY Sunday morning, but will be quickly shifting by then and the high will really begin choking it off, so likely no additional accums with it in NY Sunday morning.  Given the moderating airmass overnight, the bands may struggle to accumulate much additional snow near the shore.

For the map and changes to it, focused the 6-12” corridor in NY where they’ll see the best potential snow tonight and also where the band is likely to affect Saturday morning.  Removed the 4-8” from anywhere in NE OH as I don’t think they’ll see much if any tonight, and I’m not quite as impressed with the Saturday night snowfall there…but the higher terrain north of 322 from NE Cuyahoga into southern Lake/northern Geauga should still get a good few inches Saturday afternoon and evening.  Did expand the 1” into more of northern Cuyahoga County given potential for a relatively intense band to affect that area for a time late Saturday afternoon/early evening.  Reduced the area of 4-8” in Erie County PA for similar reasons as in NE OH, and mainly focused it on the NE corner where better banding will graze late tonight through early Saturday afternoon…that’s not to say that someone can’t squeak out locally more than 6” in central or western Erie County PA if a more persistent band sits there later Saturday afternoon or evening, but I don’t have enough evidence to support it in any given spot.  Did bump Erie proper into 3-6” since I think they see a brief burst late tonight, get grazed Saturday morning, and get another good burst early to mid-afternoon as the trough pushes through…though that’s admittedly low confidence, and I feel more confident farther up the shore.  1-3” amounts were extended farther SE overall in NW PA and SW NY on the southern edge to give a nod to most guidance, though didn’t go as far as some models due to likely issues with banding getting too far inland. 

[Jim Martin]

Wind Chill temperatures nearing zero by tomorrow morning across much of northern Ohio.

[HO1088]

I had about 0.5" of snow for the storm.  Elevation made a big difference.

Strong winds overnight but they have subsided a bit ever since sunrise.

Impressive thundersnow with the squalls around Dunkirk, NY (KDKK) this morning.

[Speedskater]

So winter just arrived near Lakewood Park.  At 24ºF it's about 12 degrees colder the the previous fall low.  And the first snow, somewhere between 1/8 and 1/4 inch.

[OHweather]

The NE corner of Ohio and parts of Erie County got a good amount this morning, already a 9” report SE of Erie.  Hopefully the bands are intact later and can make it far enough south for some of you to see something.  

[Benadrill]

37 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The NE corner of Ohio and parts of Erie County got a good amount this morning, already a 9” report SE of Erie.  Hopefully the bands are intact later and can make it far enough south for some of you to see something.  

What do you think about Tuesday?

[vpbob21]

Even my area got on the scoreboard this morning with .5".  Didn't expect it.

[OHweather]

9 minutes ago, Benadrill said:

What do you think about Tuesday?

I think northern OH sees a light snow, but it’s not a strong system and temps aren’t that cold so probably a 1-2” deal (less near the lake).  Maybe some LES behind it but that doesn’t currently look fantastic. 

[NEOH]

Light snow falling. Doesn't look like the bands will make it this far south. It was cold this morning with a low of 21. The bands over the lake don't to healthy at the moment. 

[OHweather]

I suspect a better band will flare back up within an hour or two as the rather sharp trough moves across the lake...it won't be 2" per hour like they saw from Erie to Dunkirk this morning but should be moderate at least.  The question for some of you will just be how far south it can get. 

[NEOH]

3 hours ago, OHweather said:

I suspect a better band will flare back up within an hour or two as the rather sharp trough moves across the lake...it won't be 2" per hour like they saw from Erie to Dunkirk this morning but should be moderate at least.  The question for some of you will just be how far south it can get. 

Looks like the trough has stalled in the middle of the lake. With high pressure quickly building in its going to be tough for the band to move any further south than ashtabula county. 

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Looks like the trough has stalled in the middle of the lake. With high pressure quickly building in its going to be tough for the band to move any further south than ashtabula county. 

Yeah, that band got amazingly stuck.  

[MAIDEsNow]

Hello all,

Nice start for the season. Only about 5" here in Edinboro PA, but was at the cabin all day at the PA/NY border at the start of the Chautauqua Ridge. About 11" out there I would say. Was heaviest overnight, woke up to about 8", then another 3 or so thru the day and early tonight.

Meanwhile, the clowns at ERI are at it again right off the bat regarding snowfall measurements. At the 5:00pm report, indicated 13.2" for the day:  http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=cle Not a freaking chance. I left the cabin about 6:30, drove up to and along the lake shore out to the from east Erie out to the airport. I would say there was maybe 5" otg? My friend said no more than 8" when it pretty much stopped by 2:00 pm and he cleared his driveway (about 3/4 of a mile from the airport). With settling/compacting, the 5 or 6 on the ground seems right. So once again, the airport is off by a staggering 38% or so.

[NEOH]

Surprised there wasn't a flare up of lake effect last night given the cold air mass and favorable wind direction. Not often you see that type of lake/air temp differential with nothing to show for it. Water temps are tanking in the western basin with 38 degrees showing up around Toledo. Still 54 on the eastern end of the lake. 

 

 

 

[HO1088]

Perhaps if the low was closer to us the boundary layer wouldn't have been so dry?

[dta1984]

Wonder if we pick up a few inches tomorrow and tomorrow night?  Some of the snow maps show snow here, but some of that may be sleet or freezing rain i imagine. 

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Wonder if we pick up a few inches tomorrow and tomorrow night?  Some of the snow maps show snow here, but some of that may be sleet or freezing rain i imagine. 

Not sure what to expect. Temps look marginal... Maybe a slushy inch or so. 

[HO1088]

The 12Z ECMWF on Windy.com shows 6" for the eastern suburbs of Cleveland!

Very tricky forecast.