NEOH Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 CLE has had their share of bad forecasts lately. With the heavy rain approaching today's forecast looks no different. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm front continues it slow move northward. The showers north of it are struggling to move to the north and east as it encounters some drier air. Still think much of NW Ohio will see some light rain through the morning but it will decrease in coverage through the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 The fog has been fun today. What a difference 5 miles makes. KLNN 072035Z AUTO 04007KT 7SM OVC004 19/17 A3020 RMK AO1 T01910173 KCAK 072051Z 21008KT 10SM SCT040 28/19 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP213 T02830194 55007 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 On 10/5/2018 at 9:11 AM, NEOH said: Surprised the water temp departure isn't higher like some of the other lakes. No complaints about the warm weather... let's hold as much warmth as possible in the water until November. I've noticed a lot more color showing over the past few days. The leaf wilting seems to have stopped so hopefully we'll have good fall color. The one thing I have noticed this year is all of the squirrels. When we moved here 6 years ago we rarely saw any squirrels... thanks to the hawks. Now they seem to be everywhere this year - black, gray and brown. Colors are popping and leaves falling. Definitely not as vibrant, but still early. Great observation, we were just talking about all of the squirrels this year. They are everywhere it seems. Also noticed more black ones than I've seen in the past. Crazy temps, reminiscent of an August day. Tomorrow looks the same, and then the bottom falls out. I'm done with this heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 I won’t be in Ohio often, but will be next weekend...in Athens Friday/Saturday and in NE Ohio on Sunday. The models have been consistently showing a strong enough cold shot to get some lake effect/instability showers mixed with graupel or wet snow on Sunday...a little ways out from locking it in but the potential for some non-accumulating wintry precip on Sunday seems legitimate and I am rooting it on, since it may be a little longer before I see it out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 15, 2018 Share Posted October 15, 2018 3 hours ago, OHweather said: I won’t be in Ohio often, but will be next weekend...in Athens Friday/Saturday and in NE Ohio on Sunday. The models have been consistently showing a strong enough cold shot to get some lake effect/instability showers mixed with graupel or wet snow on Sunday...a little ways out from locking it in but the potential for some non-accumulating wintry precip on Sunday seems legitimate and I am rooting it on, since it may be a little longer before I see it out here. Definitely a good opportunity for our 1st LES of the season. CLE is onboard... if temps are that cold I wouldn't rule out accumulations. I think 850 temps were similar during the October 2013 LES snow which caused a lot of tree damage locally. 850 mb temperatures are progged to drop to between - 6 and -8 C across the area over the weekend supporting instability over the lake. Unfortunately, this means lake effect rain showers and even potential for some snow showers in the traditional primary snowbelt will develop in the wake of the cold front. Any accumulations will take place in the higher elevations at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 6 hours ago, NEOH said: Definitely a good opportunity for our 1st LES of the season. CLE is onboard... if temps are that cold I wouldn't rule out accumulations. I think 850 temps were similar during the October 2013 LES snow which caused a lot of tree damage locally. 850 mb temperatures are progged to drop to between - 6 and -8 C across the area over the weekend supporting instability over the lake. Unfortunately, this means lake effect rain showers and even potential for some snow showers in the traditional primary snowbelt will develop in the wake of the cold front. Any accumulations will take place in the higher elevations at this time. Yeah -6 to -8C would do the trick with an organized band...some runs have shown that, some haven’t, but can’t totally rule it out. As is usually the case with any early events instability won’t be in short supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Graupel here in Chagrin Falls. The first official "snow" of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Yep, same here. Definitely quite the switch to fall this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 The band today is a classic example of how localized lake effect can be. Not doing anything at my office on East Washington. Went home (about a mile east of 306 on Bell) and it was pouring with graupel mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 I'm not really a big fan of accumulations Saturday night into Sunday in NE OH right now...850mb temps are close to supportive and we've had accumulating snow with similar 925mb and 850mb temps before in October, but the lake is unusually warm and it will be a short-fetch event by the time temps get cold enough to start mixing with snow, which will limit band intensity and blow lake-modified air well inland. It should still be an interesting time Saturday afternoon and evening as explosive instability develops over the lake thanks to 500mb temps of -30 to -32C moving over 16 to 18C waters...there will be a very strong vort and surface trough moving by Saturday late afternoon/early evening with that extremely instability in place with winds shifting from WSW to NNW...there will likely be an organized shore-parallel band that develops and quickly swings south through much of the Snowbelt and the Cleveland area. Surface temps will be in the low 50s when that happens so the p-type will be "rain," but with unusually strong instability over the lake and low freezing levels there will likely be an abundance of small hail/graupel with that activity. Any stronger cells could probably get close to producing severe criteria hail near the lakeshore given over 1500 J/KG of lake-induced CAPE with a conservative water temp in BUFKIT. Also could be stronger than normal waterspouts over the lake along the surface trough. As exciting as that is it isn't really snow...the inversion height gradually lowers Saturday evening as we lose the synoptic support with winds becoming well-aligned out of the NNW. Many areas will turn dry but two or three bands will likely occur downwind of the lake between Sandusky and SW NY. It will probably take until at least midnight for the bands to change to all snow even inland...they'll still be fairly intense for a few hours at that point and could be moderate until early Sunday, but again they're multi-bands and likely won't firehose anyone spot and surface temps will be marginal. If any stronger band impacts the higher terrain just right a localized light accumulation could occur, but I think that'll be the exception. Still, fairly fun for the middle of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 It would probably be too warm to snow tonight in the Cleveland snowbelt suburbs, but the Lake to 850 temp difference will be 24 degrees C after midnight. Thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 There was a thunderstorm in Chagrin at 2:30 pm and as of 4:30 pm KCLE reported a gust of 52 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 2 hours ago, HO1088 said: There was a thunderstorm in Chagrin at 2:30 pm and as of 4:30 pm KCLE reported a gust of 52 mph. I’ve had several rounds of storms with hail today. The winds were intense earlier this evening. Freezing levels are very low... I wouldn’t rule out snow late tonight. Extremely variable weather today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 It must be dry or perhaps there is a big inversion, because the stratocumulus layer overnight and this morning isn't thick enough to produce meaningful lake effect. Odd considering the cold air, but perhaps the cold air is very shallow? Power outages on the west side with lots of small hail last night and some impressive wind. https://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2018/10/thousands_of_firstenergy_custo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Anyone else had enough of the rain yet?! Hopefully we can get a set-up like this when it is colder. Nice lake effect rain band hitting the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 18 minutes ago, NEOH said: Anyone else had enough of the rain yet?! Hopefully we can get a set-up like this when it is colder. Nice lake effect rain band hitting the east side. I am! Leaves are falling in a hurry now. Hope the wet pattern keeps up through winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 About 1.75" here in Chagrin Saturday morning to Monday morning. It's still raining this afternoon but as the wind backs hopefully the band will stop. My lawn feels more like a wet April soggy mess than late fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 My yard is about at the point where I won't be able to cut it because it is so wet. Finally getting some better leaf color... but overall a pretty bland fall for leaf color. Tuesday/Wednesday looks like another soaker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2018/10/2018-has-been-one-of-the-wettest-years-on-record-in-cleveland-and-more-rain-is-in-the-forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 The wet pattern continues for the end of the week. Reading back over last year's posts, our first snow was mid Nov., then pretty quiet until early Dec. Hopefully this year has a better Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 4 hours ago, dta1984 said: The wet pattern continues for the end of the week. Reading back over last year's posts, our first snow was mid Nov., then pretty quiet until early Dec. Hopefully this year has a better Nov. Yeah. It looks pretty ugly. What an incredibly wet year. Too bad we are bleeding so much warmth from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 CLE finished +1.5 for October. Hard to believe after the huge positive departures the first 10 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 For some reason I thought Cle had already implemented the replacement of lake effect warnings and advisories with winter storm products. Maybe I'm thinking of another office. Looks like snow squall warnings this year too. https://www.weather.gov/cle/news_Winter_Weather_Products_2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Seems like the trees turned and fell in a week. About 75% of the leaves are down in my yard. Going to be a long clean up with all of the rain we’ve had. Next week is starting to look interesting on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 5 hours ago, NEOH said: Seems like the trees turned and fell in a week. About 75% of the leaves are down in my yard. Going to be a long clean up with all of the rain we’ve had. Next week is starting to look interesting on the models. Ya it was a fast process this year. Most of my leaves have fallen....still a few trees left. I'm hoping to get out Sunday and do some cleanup. Definitely some interesting looks for next weekend and the following week. Seems to be right on schedule with our first snowfall if it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Does anybody know what the fv3-gfs is? Just noticed it on tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 5 hours ago, dta1984 said: Does anybody know what the fv3-gfs is? Just noticed it on tropical tidbits. It's the new GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Models continue to look good for the coming weekend. CLE's jumping on board the LES train... The region could see some wet snow mix with the rain as it begins Friday morning but any accumulation looks minimal to none. This storm system will shift quickly to the East Coast as a clipper system dives into the Great Lakes. This clipper crosses the region early on Saturday and will help to enhance any lake effect that has developed. Much colder air will arrive in the wake of the clipper with a change over to all snow for the snowbelt by early Saturday morning. We may see the first significant accumulations of the season. Another clipper type storm system may cross the lakes on Sunday. So stay tuned as we update the forecast through the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 My early impression is that this weekend won't do much...the cold shot is brief and winds quickly go back to the SW. It'll be so cold that if a brief period of LES developed it'd accumulate inland, but I don't think there's much potential for a decent amount. Next week's cold shot at this point looks much deeper/slower moving and could feature a west to northwest wind. The lake to air temp differential should be extreme given lake waters still in the 50s and persistent signals for impressive to near record cold with this airmass, so details certainly to be worked out but that could lead to a significant event somewhere between Monday and Wednesday of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now