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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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CLE has had their share of bad forecasts lately. With the heavy rain approaching today's forecast looks no different.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm front continues it slow move northward. The showers north of it are struggling to move to the north and east as it encounters some drier air. 
Still think much of NW Ohio will see some light rain through the morning but it will decrease in coverage through the afternoon.
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On 10/5/2018 at 9:11 AM, NEOH said:

Surprised the water temp departure isn't higher like some of the other lakes. No complaints about the warm weather... let's hold as much warmth as possible in the water until November. 

I've noticed a lot more color showing over the past few days. The leaf wilting seems to have stopped so hopefully we'll have good fall color. The one thing I have noticed this year is all of the squirrels. When we moved here 6 years ago we rarely saw any squirrels... thanks to the hawks. Now they seem to be everywhere this year - black, gray and brown. 

Colors are popping and leaves falling.   Definitely not as vibrant,  but still early.   Great observation,  we were just talking about all of the squirrels this year.  They are everywhere it seems.  Also noticed more black ones than I've seen in the past.  

Crazy temps,  reminiscent of an August day.  Tomorrow looks the same,  and then the bottom falls out.  I'm done with this heat. 

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I won’t be in Ohio often, but will be next weekend...in Athens Friday/Saturday and in NE Ohio on Sunday.  The models have been consistently showing a strong enough cold shot to get some lake effect/instability showers mixed with graupel or wet snow on Sunday...a little ways out from locking it in but the potential for some non-accumulating wintry precip on Sunday seems legitimate and I am rooting it on, since it may be a little longer before I see it out here. 

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3 hours ago, OHweather said:

I won’t be in Ohio often, but will be next weekend...in Athens Friday/Saturday and in NE Ohio on Sunday.  The models have been consistently showing a strong enough cold shot to get some lake effect/instability showers mixed with graupel or wet snow on Sunday...a little ways out from locking it in but the potential for some non-accumulating wintry precip on Sunday seems legitimate and I am rooting it on, since it may be a little longer before I see it out here. 

Definitely a good opportunity for our 1st LES of the season. CLE is onboard... if temps are that cold I wouldn't rule out accumulations. I think 850 temps were similar during the October 2013 LES snow which caused a lot of tree damage locally. 

850 mb temperatures are progged to drop to between - 6 and -8 C across the area over the weekend supporting instability
over the lake. Unfortunately, this means lake effect rain showers and even potential for some snow showers in the traditional primary
snowbelt will develop in the wake of the cold front.  Any accumulations will take place in the higher elevations at this time.
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6 hours ago, NEOH said:

Definitely a good opportunity for our 1st LES of the season. CLE is onboard... if temps are that cold I wouldn't rule out accumulations. I think 850 temps were similar during the October 2013 LES snow which caused a lot of tree damage locally. 


850 mb temperatures are progged to drop to between - 6 and -8 C across the area over the weekend supporting instability
over the lake. Unfortunately, this means lake effect rain showers and even potential for some snow showers in the traditional primary
snowbelt will develop in the wake of the cold front.  Any accumulations will take place in the higher elevations at this time.

Yeah -6 to -8C would do the trick with an organized band...some runs have shown that, some haven’t, but can’t totally rule it out.  As is usually the case with any early events instability won’t be in short supply. 

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I'm not really a big fan of accumulations Saturday night into Sunday in NE OH right now...850mb temps are close to supportive and we've had accumulating snow with similar 925mb and 850mb temps before in October, but the lake is unusually warm and it will be a short-fetch event by the time temps get cold enough to start mixing with snow, which will limit band intensity and blow lake-modified air well inland. 

It should still be an interesting time Saturday afternoon and evening as explosive instability develops over the lake thanks to 500mb temps of -30 to -32C moving over 16 to 18C waters...there will be a very strong vort and surface trough moving by Saturday late afternoon/early evening with that extremely instability in place with winds shifting from WSW to NNW...there will likely be an organized shore-parallel band that develops and quickly swings south through much of the Snowbelt and the Cleveland area.  Surface temps will be in the low 50s when that happens so the p-type will be "rain," but with unusually strong instability over the lake and low freezing levels there will likely be an abundance of small hail/graupel with that activity.  Any stronger cells could probably get close to producing severe criteria hail near the lakeshore given over 1500 J/KG of lake-induced CAPE with a conservative water temp in BUFKIT.   Also could be stronger than normal waterspouts over the lake along the surface trough. 

As exciting as that is it isn't really snow...the inversion height gradually lowers Saturday evening as we lose the synoptic support with winds becoming well-aligned out of the NNW.  Many areas will turn dry but two or three bands will likely occur downwind of the lake between Sandusky and SW NY.  It will probably take until at least midnight for the bands to change to all snow even inland...they'll still be fairly intense for a few hours at that point and could be moderate until early Sunday, but again they're multi-bands and likely won't firehose anyone spot and surface temps will be marginal.  If any stronger band impacts the higher terrain just right a localized light accumulation could occur, but I think that'll be the exception.

Still, fairly fun for the middle of October. 

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2 hours ago, HO1088 said:

There was a thunderstorm in Chagrin at 2:30 pm and as of 4:30 pm KCLE reported a gust of 52 mph.  

I’ve had several rounds of storms with hail today. The winds were intense earlier this evening. Freezing levels are very low... I wouldn’t rule out snow late tonight. Extremely variable weather today.

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It must be dry or perhaps there is a big inversion, because the stratocumulus layer overnight and this morning isn't thick enough to produce meaningful lake effect.  Odd considering the cold air, but perhaps the cold air is very shallow?

 

Power outages on the west side with lots of small hail last night and some impressive wind. 

 

https://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2018/10/thousands_of_firstenergy_custo.html

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  • 2 weeks later...
18 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Anyone else had enough of the rain yet?! Hopefully we can get a set-up like this when it is colder. Nice lake effect rain band hitting the east side. 

I am!  Leaves are falling in a hurry now. Hope the wet pattern keeps up through winter. 

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4 hours ago, dta1984 said:

The wet pattern continues for the end of the week.  

Reading back over last year's posts, our first snow was mid Nov., then pretty quiet until early Dec.    Hopefully this year has a better Nov. 

Yeah. It looks pretty ugly. What an incredibly wet year. Too bad we are bleeding so much warmth from the lake. 

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5 hours ago, NEOH said:

Seems like the trees turned and fell in a week. About 75% of the leaves are down in my yard. Going to be a long clean up with all of the rain we’ve had. Next week is starting to look interesting on the models.

Ya it was a fast process this year.   Most of my leaves have fallen....still a few trees left.   I'm hoping to get out Sunday and do some cleanup.   

Definitely some interesting looks for next weekend and the following week. Seems to be right on schedule with our first snowfall if it does happen.  

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Models continue to look good for the coming weekend. CLE's jumping on board the LES train...

The region could see some wet snow mix with the rain as it begins Friday morning but any accumulation looks minimal to
none. This storm system will shift quickly to the East Coast as a clipper system dives into the Great Lakes. This clipper
crosses the region early on Saturday and will help to enhance any lake effect that has developed. Much colder air will arrive
in the wake of the clipper with a change over to all snow for the snowbelt by early Saturday morning. We may see the first
significant accumulations of the season. Another clipper type storm system may cross the lakes on Sunday. So stay tuned as we
update the forecast through the week.
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My early impression is that this weekend won't do much...the cold shot is brief and winds quickly go back to the SW.  It'll be so cold that if a brief period of LES developed it'd accumulate inland, but I don't think there's much potential for a decent amount.  Next week's cold shot at this point looks much deeper/slower moving and could feature a west to northwest wind.  The lake to air temp differential should be extreme given lake waters still in the 50s and persistent signals for impressive to near record cold with this airmass, so details certainly to be worked out but that could lead to a significant event somewhere between Monday and Wednesday of next week. 

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