Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

CLE is currently at 6.58" for July.... currently #6 wettest. Could make a run at #5 if we get more rain tonight/tomorrow. 

[dta1984]

48 minutes ago, NEOH said:

CLE is currently at 6.58" for July.... currently #6 wettest. Could make a run at #5 if we get more rain tonight/tomorrow. 

Incredible!  Seems the west side got more rain the past week or so, while we missed out.    Certainly has been a wet summer.  

[vpbob21]

19 hours ago, NEOH said:

CLE is currently at 6.58" for July.... currently #6 wettest. Could make a run at #5 if we get more rain tonight/tomorrow. 

And then you have TOL at just .30".  Amazing the contrast across 100 or so miles.

Not sure exactly how much I've had but looking at my lawn I'd say I'm closer to TOL than CLE.

[NEOH]

6 hours ago, vpbob21 said:

And then you have TOL at just .30".  Amazing the contrast across 100 or so miles.

Not sure exactly how much I've had but looking at my lawn I'd say I'm closer to TOL than CLE.

CLE has definitely been in the rain jackpot zone. My yard is starting to dry, but still nice and green. We've had close to CLE's total in this area... but most of that fell over a short amount of time. It doesn't take more than a couple days of sun to dry out the clay soil around here. 

[HO1088]

About 7.5" of rain in Chagrin Falls for July.  Temperatures slightly above normal, but mostly due to the humid air with significantly higher than normal minimum temps.

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks like you guys were right in Eries snowfall accumulations being incorrect. The NWS is tossing the 24 hour record and the December snowfall record and keeping them what they were. Interesting read. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/extremes/scec/reports/20180723-Pennsylvania-Snowfall.pdf

[HO1088]

KCGF 221619Z 31015KT 10SM BKN020 BKN040 21/16 A2995+FC(funnel cloud-tornado) RMK +FC(funnel cloud-tornado) E1619 MOVD E
KCGF 221556Z 31015KT 10SM BKN017 BKN030 21/16 A2996+FC(funnel cloud-tornado) RMK +FC(funnel cloud-tornado) B1556 6NE MOV NE

[NEOH]

On 8/22/2018 at 12:44 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like you guys were right in Eries snowfall accumulations being incorrect. The NWS is tossing the 24 hour record and the December snowfall record and keeping them what they were. Interesting read. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/extremes/scec/reports/20180723-Pennsylvania-Snowfall.pdf

Thanks for posting. Definitely an interesting read. 

[OHweather]

On 8/22/2018 at 1:58 PM, HO1088 said:

KCGF 221619Z 31015KT 10SM BKN020 BKN040 21/16 A2995+FC(funnel cloud-tornado) RMK +FC(funnel cloud-tornado) E1619 MOVD E
KCGF 221556Z 31015KT 10SM BKN017 BKN030 21/16 A2996+FC(funnel cloud-tornado) RMK +FC(funnel cloud-tornado) B1556 6NE MOV NE

Wonder if that was the waterspout reported off of Willowick around noon that day...always a fun METAR.

Anyways, it just dawned on me with the lake effect showers and waterspouts this week that as we approach September, lake effect season is just about upon us (of course, it'll be rain for the next several weeks if there is any).  With moving to Jersey and starting the job in July this summer has flown by for me.  Luckily most of the East Coast doesn't really get wintry threats quite as early as the Great Lakes can.

[buckeye]

11 hours ago, OHweather said:

 

  With moving to Jersey and starting the job in July this summer has flown by for me.  Luckily most of the East Coast doesn't really get wintry threats quite as early as the Great Lakes can.

I just saw this.  Noooooo! You've left us!  Ugh Ohio is back to having no pro met representation on the board, ( kind of crazy when you think about it). 

Anyways, good luck to you and belated congrats!

[OHweather]

5 hours ago, buckeye said:

I just saw this.  Noooooo! You've left us!  Ugh Ohio is back to having no pro met representation on the board, ( kind of crazy when you think about it). 

Anyways, good luck to you and belated congrats!

Thanks! The downside to this field definitely is way more grads than jobs and a fairly high likelihood of having to move off the bat.  Ohio is not rich in met jobs...two NWS offices that you likely won’t get into without a masters or years of experience, and AEP which is almost the same thing.  I don’t count broadcast jobs because that’s a whole other beast that I had no interest in touching. 

I’ll certainly try to peak in this winter.  I won’t work 168 hours a week, hopefully. 

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Thanks! The downside to this field definitely is way more grads than jobs and a fairly high likelihood of having to move off the bat.  Ohio is not rich in met jobs...two NWS offices that you likely won’t get into without a masters or years of experience, and AEP which is almost the same thing.  I don’t count broadcast jobs because that’s a whole other beast that I had no interest in touching. 

I’ll certainly try to peak in this winter.  I won’t work 168 hours a week, hopefully. 

I also need to correct myself and apologize to OSUbrett2 and wxdudemike .....2 Ohio mets that do contribute here.    They just tend not to be as prolific in the posting department as some of the others.

[Stebo]

Just now, OHweather said:

Thanks! The downside to this field definitely is way more grads than jobs and a fairly high likelihood of having to move off the bat.  Ohio is not rich in met jobs...two NWS offices that you likely won’t get into without a masters or years of experience, and AEP which is almost the same thing.  I don’t count broadcast jobs because that’s a whole other beast that I had no interest in touching. 

I’ll certainly try to peak in this winter.  I won’t work 168 hours a week, hopefully. 

I do hope you check back in as much as possible here, your posts are always gold.

[BuffaloWeather]

Ohio, your lake effect posts are the best on this forum. Always appreciate your insight. Good luck at your new location! 

[dta1984]

On 8/25/2018 at 9:37 PM, OHweather said:

Wonder if that was the waterspout reported off of Willowick around noon that day...always a fun METAR.

Anyways, it just dawned on me with the lake effect showers and waterspouts this week that as we approach September, lake effect season is just about upon us (of course, it'll be rain for the next several weeks if there is any).  With moving to Jersey and starting the job in July this summer has flown by for me.  Luckily most of the East Coast doesn't really get wintry threats quite as early as the Great Lakes can.

Same here, cant believe we're approaching fall and les season already.   It's been a nice summer, not too hot (until this week lol).   I changed jobs and now working in Chardon, so I'll get to see more of the northern events that miss home.  

[HO1088]

With the high dewpoints the last couple days of (unpredicted) lake breeze fronts and associated showers and thunderstorms has been fun to watch.

[HO1088]

0.49" last night in Chagrin Falls, but earlier in the day we missed two big storms...one over Burton and one just south near Solon.  All on a day that was forecast "mostly sunny".

The lake influence is impressive.  When the dewpoint gets high the pattern resembles that of South Florida.  It seems it doesn't matter how high the pressure is, with lots of humidity and a warm lake the cumulus will develop.

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, HO1088 said:

0.49" last night in Chagrin Falls, but earlier in the day we missed two big storms...one over Burton and one just south near Solon.  All on a day that was forecast "mostly sunny".

The lake influence is impressive.  When the dewpoint gets high the pattern resembles that of South Florida.  It seems it doesn't matter how high the pressure is, with lots of humidity and a warm lake the cumulus will develop.

It was interesting to watch the storms fire on the boundaries. I'm about 5 miles east of Chagrin Falls, and had impressive cloud to ground lightning around 3pm, but little rain. Picked up .40" with the storm around 10pm. 

The ground is pretty dry around here so the rain is welcome. Hoping we can get a repeat today with storms firing on the lake breeze. 

[HO1088]

7 hours ago, NEOH said:

It was interesting to watch the storms fire on the boundaries. I'm about 5 miles east of Chagrin Falls, and had impressive cloud to ground lightning around 3pm, but little rain. Picked up .40" with the storm around 10pm. 

The ground is pretty dry around here so the rain is welcome. Hoping we can get a repeat today with storms firing on the lake breeze. 

1.13" in Chagrin Falls today.  One of the rare instances where persistence would have been a better forecast than the 20% PoP the NWS CLE had today (again).

 

It would be an improvement if the NWS could convey/predict/acknowledge the existence of the minor flash flooding that occurs during these lake enhanced summer events.  They happen several times per year, yet they rarely if ever are predicted or even acknowledged.  The flood advisory wasn't issued until about 3 p.m. and the event was over by that point.   

 

I saw my first cumulus cloud today at 11:45 a.m. and the thunderstorm started around 1:30 p.m.   It doesn't take long to build in this humidity once the convective temperature is reached in the late morning.  

 

At 5 p.m. my dewpoint was 79 F.    At 5:18 pm it is now 80 F dewpoint.  Never thought I'd see the day.

[OHweather]

20% POPs were ok the last two days IMO...mayybe could've gone 30 or 40% in the Snowbelt where the combination of the lake breeze and terrain can help spark a few more storms, but the areal coverage everywhere except for the Snowbelt was very low.  Today's cell ended up being relatively impressive and was slow moving over the eastern suburbs into Geauga, though it really was just the one big cell in that area.

Flood advisories and warnings are tough...it is pretty pointless when they throw them up as the rain is ending which happens more than it should, but you also don't want to issue them and have nothing happen.  Some minor poor-drainage flooding is not worthy of an advisory, but if you have enough that you have 6" or 12" of standing water on more than a couple of roads it needs something.  Not sure how bad today's was in your area.  When I'm contacting our clients for flood-related concerns it's really a fine balancing act between getting ahold of them after flooding is already ongoing and doing it too early when there's a high bust potential...unless it's nearly a slam dunk (solid area of slow-moving very heavy rain moving over a sensitive area) they're going to get some rain before they get contacted, although I try my hardest to do it somewhat before they hit whatever threshold I determine that I think they'll start flooding at.  The NWS is issuing for a totally different audience but does ultimately have similar concerns when issuing products like that.  1.13" isn't a minor amount, but unless the ground is already saturated with streams and creeks near bankful it is hard to get substantial flooding with that amount in an area like Chagrin that's not extremely urban. 

[NEOH]

21 hours ago, HO1088 said:

1.13" in Chagrin Falls today.  One of the rare instances where persistence would have been a better forecast than the 20% PoP the NWS CLE had today (again).

 

It would be an improvement if the NWS could convey/predict/acknowledge the existence of the minor flash flooding that occurs during these lake enhanced summer events.  They happen several times per year, yet they rarely if ever are predicted or even acknowledged.  The flood advisory wasn't issued until about 3 p.m. and the event was over by that point.   

 

I saw my first cumulus cloud today at 11:45 a.m. and the thunderstorm started around 1:30 p.m.   It doesn't take long to build in this humidity once the convective temperature is reached in the late morning.  

 

At 5 p.m. my dewpoint was 79 F.    At 5:18 pm it is now 80 F dewpoint.  Never thought I'd see the day.

Only .25" at my house yesterday. The heaviest storms stayed just north and west. That's a huge difference over a short distance. I have family in Russell and they have had over 2.5" the past two days. 

My dewpoint was up to 79 as well yesterday evening... that doesn't happen very often. The lake breeze appears a little weaker today so we'll see what happens. 

 

[HO1088]

NWS issued a Flash Flood Watch for NE Ohio on Sunday.   The ECMWF and GFS forecast about 1" of rain with the heaviest to the east in Western PA.   The NAM shows about 5" for NE Ohio. 

It's rained for 7 days in a row here in Chagrin Falls.

[NEOH]

2.6" storm total IMBY. Didn't see any flooding locally as we never really had heavy rainfall rates... Just constant light to moderate rain. 

[HO1088]

On 9/10/2018 at 11:44 AM, NEOH said:

2.6" storm total IMBY. Didn't see any flooding locally as we never really had heavy rainfall rates... Just constant light to moderate rain. 

That's quite a bit.  I was closer to 2" but already above 4" for the month.  

[NEOH]

2.75" of rain since Monday. The ground was pretty dry so we needed some rain, but not that much. Leaves are falling but very little color.

[dta1984]

15 minutes ago, NEOH said:

2.75" of rain since Monday. The ground was pretty dry so we needed some rain, but not that much. Leaves are falling but very little color.

I've noticed the colors are definitely lacking this year.  Not sure if it's just too early still or because of the dry and hot weather recently?  

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

I've noticed the colors are definitely lacking this year.  Not sure if it's just too early still or because of the dry and hot weather recently?  

The leaves seem to be wilting and falling off. They have black patches as well. It has been really humid so maybe that has something to do with it. Color should start popping in the next couple of weeks. 

[HO1088]

Not many leaves down at all in my area as of yet.   Things seem unusually green and lush. 

 

6.87" of rain for September.  Yet another overly wet month.

[dta1984]

Looks like the lake is running a bit above normal at 69 degrees.  Hopefully the warm weather the next week or so will keep the temps up.  

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=e&ext=swt&type=N&hr=48

[NEOH]

23 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Looks like the lake is running a bit above normal at 69 degrees.  Hopefully the warm weather the next week or so will keep the temps up.  

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=e&ext=swt&type=N&hr=48

Surprised the water temp departure isn't higher like some of the other lakes. No complaints about the warm weather... let's hold as much warmth as possible in the water until November. 

I've noticed a lot more color showing over the past few days. The leaf wilting seems to have stopped so hopefully we'll have good fall color. The one thing I have noticed this year is all of the squirrels. When we moved here 6 years ago we rarely saw any squirrels... thanks to the hawks. Now they seem to be everywhere this year - black, gray and brown.