Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[OHweather]

7 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said:

I am glad you guys are getting good snows, awesome and nice pics! Getting my fair share here, about 8" total from yesterday and overnight til this morning. University weather cam continues to show some snow.

However, that is not my point of this post...

In the grand scheme of things it is not all that important, but since my co-workers just laugh at me and my passion for snow, I am going to share with you fine folks. The Erie Airport snowfall recording is completely, totally, & hysterically inaccurate. I don't know how to illustrate it otherwise, so below is the screen shot of CLE Snow Reports from last night.

Unless it is a typo, that top spot in Erie County at the Erie Airport of 6.1" is absurd. My employment is just down the road from there - it did not snow at all yesterday, some flurries from time to time and often partly cloudy. The idea that 6" of snow fell in the 12 hour window of 9am til 9pm on 3/8 is crazy. Heck, even thru this morning as of 9am - a 24 hour window - the total snow is about 2" max here where I work.

I just further cements in my mind that the snowfall record for Erie this winter in nowhere near the number of inches listed.

 

Hmm.  Well, I’m glad you got a decent snow at home finally.  

As for the airport, they recorded 3 hours of moderate snow in the evening with 0.29” of liquid.  I’m not sure if that was from the gauge or a core sample of the snow.  If it’s from the gauge, it was windy so it’s possible it under caught the liquid a bit.  Either way, it seems like some sort of stretch for them to get 6” out of it, but not completely impossible. If right down the road you came in today and there was no where near 6”, that does make it more suspicious.  I asked CLE a couple months ago about some of the measurements there and never got a response.  

[OHweather]

I’ve probably tacked on a little more from off and on snow showers today that have been briefly intense.  

We may see some more organized lake effect for a few hours later this afternoon and evening with instability and moisture to 7-8k feet, some pre-seeding from Michigan, and a well-aligned flow near 280.  With a ridge moving in lowering inversions and causing us to lose the cyclonic flow overnight I doubt it surprises as much as the other night, but could see some 1-3” type accumulations in spots thru this evening.  

We get another cold shot Tuesday-Wednesday.  The Euro has 500mb temps around -40 which is impressive and indicative of a deep cold airmass.  Winds look NW to NNW Tuesday-Wednesday with potentially some lobes of good moisture rotating through.  Despite the short fetch, I have to think there could be some more plowable lake effect Tuesday-Wednesday, especially if we time a period of better snow with night.  If there are any upstream connections there could be enough for some sort of advisories at some point.

[NEOH]

17 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I’ve probably tacked on a little more from off and on snow showers today that have been briefly intense.  

We may see some more organized lake effect for a few hours later this afternoon and evening with instability and moisture to 7-8k feet, some pre-seeding from Michigan, and a well-aligned flow near 280.  With a ridge moving in lowering inversions and causing us to lose the cyclonic flow overnight I doubt it surprises as much as the other night, but could see some 1-3” type accumulations in spots thru this evening.  

We get another cold shot Tuesday-Wednesday.  The Euro has 500mb temps around -40 which is impressive and indicative of a deep cold airmass.  Winds look NW to NNW Tuesday-Wednesday with potentially some lobes of good moisture rotating through.  Despite the short fetch, I have to think there could be some more plowable lake effect Tuesday-Wednesday, especially if we time a period of better snow with night.  If there are any upstream connections there could be enough for some sort of advisories at some point.

We need these favorable wind directions earlier in the season. There's a ton of snow out there... feels like mid-winter, but I would be content with closing the books on this winter. 

[OHweather]

42 minutes ago, NEOH said:

We need these favorable wind directions earlier in the season. There's a ton of snow out there... feels like mid-winter, but I would be content with closing the books on this winter. 

Yeah, it’s unusual to get a lot of lake effect in March...imagine if the lake was at late November water temps.  This has been a decent week or so here. 

[BuffaloWeather]

6 hours ago, MAIDEsNow said:

I am glad you guys are getting good snows, awesome and nice pics! Getting my fair share here, about 8" total from yesterday and overnight til this morning. University weather cam continues to show some snow.

However, that is not my point of this post...

In the grand scheme of things it is not all that important, but since my co-workers just laugh at me and my passion for snow, I am going to share with you fine folks. The Erie Airport snowfall recording is completely, totally, & hysterically inaccurate. I don't know how to illustrate it otherwise, so below is the screen shot of CLE Snow Reports from last night.

Unless it is a typo, that top spot in Erie County at the Erie Airport of 6.1" is absurd. My employment is just down the road from there - it did not snow at all yesterday, some flurries from time to time and often partly cloudy. The idea that 6" of snow fell in the 12 hour window of 9am til 9pm on 3/8 is crazy. Heck, even thru this morning as of 9am - a 24 hour window - the total snow is about 2" max here where I work.

I just further cements in my mind that the snowfall record for Erie this winter in nowhere near the number of inches listed.

 

I’ve been following their radar since the early season big events. They’re definitely over estimating based on what I’ve seen. Radar showed very little for Erie airport and they’re reporting totals higher than other places in which should of had more. They must have gotten a new met to measure this year. 

[dta1984]

Had a strong band come through and drop 1" in 30 mins.  Including that, I had 2.25" that fell throughout the day as well.  Event total at 19".

[OHweather]

0.7" here additional today.  Storm total of 10.8" and a seasonal total of 81.5".  Decent winter out here.  

[MAIDEsNow]

Thurs / Fri total of 10" + the 6" surprise from Weds. AM = total for week of 16". March total of 27", about 16" on the ground.

By comparison, and this is the last time I will flog this equestrian beast, Airport said 4.8" yesterday (no way, maybe 2" at most), 31" for March (not a chance, I have gotten WAY more this month imby). I mean seriously, that 31" is about double of what I think has fallen this month at my work place just down the road. Finally, they report an "incredible" snow depth on the ground of  just 6.5" - the lowest in the County from the spotters who reported last night. Their seasonal total of 187.5" is ridiculous.

BuffaloWeather, unless you use one that I am unaware of, we really do not have a good radar for snow in NW PA. Our only local doppler from Jet 24TV has been down all winter, so they have been using a composite radar on their site. The composite images from Buf & Clev don't reach us so most of the time, especially with LES, so it looks like a snowhole over the whole county.

I just use webcams to check out where it is snowing in our area:

One at my work, on the top of the main lift hill of our roller coaster, Ravine Flyer Cam most often is pointed out showing the Peninsula - link is down now because we are getting an upgrade. Other webcams for Erie County are also on JET TV24 website with their SkyCam Network: http://www.yourerie.com/skycam. Has cameras from the Bayfront all the way down to Meadville.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, MAIDEsNow said:

Thurs / Fri total of 10" + the 6" surprise from Weds. AM = total for week of 16". March total of 27", about 16" on the ground.

By comparison, and this is the last time I will flog this equestrian beast, Airport said 4.8" yesterday (no way, maybe 2" at most), 31" for March (not a chance, I have gotten WAY more this month imby). I mean seriously, that 31" is about double of what I think has fallen this month at my work place just down the road. Finally, they report an "incredible" snow depth on the ground of  just 6.5" - the lowest in the County from the spotters who reported last night. Their seasonal total of 187.5" is ridiculous.

BuffaloWeather, unless you use one that I am unaware of, we really do not have a good radar for snow in NW PA. Our only local doppler from Jet 24TV has been down all winter, so they have been using a composite radar on their site. The composite images from Buf & Clev don't reach us so most of the time, especially with LES, so it looks like a snowhole over the whole county.

I just use webcams to check out where it is snowing in our area:

One at my work, on the top of the main lift hill of our roller coaster, Ravine Flyer Cam most often is pointed out showing the Peninsula - link is down now because we are getting an upgrade. Other webcams for Erie County are also on JET TV24 website with their SkyCam Network: http://www.yourerie.com/skycam. Has cameras from the Bayfront all the way down to Meadville.

Intellicast radar works for Erie as well as cod dupage radar. There is still some spotty coverage though.

[Benadrill]

On 3/9/2018 at 8:38 AM, OHweather said:

There were a couple of lake enhanced events since January where the winds turned NW and produced well in your area and into Summit and Portage...I guess one had to go the other way eventually. 

Yup, can't get them all. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

On 3/9/2018 at 11:27 AM, MAIDEsNow said:

I am glad you guys are getting good snows, awesome and nice pics! Getting my fair share here, about 8" total from yesterday and overnight til this morning. University weather cam continues to show some snow.

However, that is not my point of this post...

In the grand scheme of things it is not all that important, but since my co-workers just laugh at me and my passion for snow, I am going to share with you fine folks. The Erie Airport snowfall recording is completely, totally, & hysterically inaccurate. I don't know how to illustrate it otherwise, so below is the screen shot of CLE Snow Reports from last night.

Unless it is a typo, that top spot in Erie County at the Erie Airport of 6.1" is absurd. My employment is just down the road from there - it did not snow at all yesterday, some flurries from time to time and often partly cloudy. The idea that 6" of snow fell in the 12 hour window of 9am til 9pm on 3/8 is crazy. Heck, even thru this morning as of 9am - a 24 hour window - the total snow is about 2" max here where I work.

I just further cements in my mind that the snowfall record for Erie this winter in nowhere near the number of inches listed.

 

Something is certainly not right!  What are these sudden precip spikes during overcast conditions?  How does 15.6" of snow only add 2" to the snow depth?  

 

[OHweather]

Yeah, it’s pretty obvious that the ERI total is off by a significant amount.  It’s been a consistent issue all winter.  It’s like they’re clearing the board every hour and then adding a few inches on every 12 hours on top of that.  They had like 20” more snow than the next highest report from 7am on Christmas through 7am on 12/26 during the “record” lake effect event, and there were other measurements very close by that were much lower.  I have no idea how much the total is off by this winter but it’s probably a laughable amount, possibly a few feet.  I don’t know how that can happen. 

[OHweather]

Complicated setup over the next couple of days, but there will be rounds of snow with accumulations likely.

A shortwave/weak surface low going by this afternoon is causing some flurries and light snow with no real accumulations with temps above freezing.  Tonight this wave and lift pull off to the east, but a relatively unstable airmass currently over lower MI/IN/NW OH will drift east across the lake tonight.  Though the snow showers over lower MI are largely diurnally driven, the steep low-level lapse rates and good moisture will slide east.  Mixing over the low to mid 30s water of Lake Erie should cause this airmass to produce light to briefly moderate lake effect snow showers this evening into tonight across parts of NE OH and NW PA as the corridor of moist/unstable low-level air slides east.  The RAP forecast soundings have good moisture/lapse rates up to 7-8k feet at CLE as this airmass moves overhead this evening with NW winds.  The NAM soundings are drier/more stable, but have generally found that an airmass that produces widespread diurnal snow showers overland will produce some lake response as the diurnal snow showers over land decrease.  With a NW flow expect the higher terrain from the secondary Snowbelt south of CLE east across the primary NE OH Snowbelt and interior NW PA to have the best shot at some accumulations tonight.  Duration of favorable conditions is only a few hours in any given area and organization doesn’t look great, but the layer of instability appears deep enough for moderate bursts.  Tend to think a dusting to up to an inch or inch and a half is likely tonight downwind of the lake, with the best shot at around an inch or so in the higher terrain. 

Perhaps a brief lull late tonight before the next potent shortwave/vort max passes late Tuesday morning.  The strongest lift from this vort max may track a little southwest of the Cleveland area and NE OH, however, some increased lift along with a lobe of upstream moisture and the layer of instability deepening to over 10k feet should allow for a decent period of snow showers Tuesday morning with this feature.  Some models take the upstream moisture towards the central highlands in this period, but with a NW or NNW flow I don’t buy the Lake Huron moisture moving that far southwest.  Think it will affect the Cleveland area and perhaps secondary Snowbelt, and the rest of NE OH.  The best snow in this period may miss NW PA to the west, but some increase is possible in this area.  Some bursts could put down a quick inch or two of snow Tuesday morning downwind of Lake Erie in NE OH as the vort max goes by, however, again a lack of organization and fairly short duration, along with known difficulties accumulating during the day this late on the year, hard to get excited about much more.  Outside of the Snowbelt, expect to see diurnal snow showers that are briefly heavy pop up.  Best shot at some light accumulations outside of the lake effect may be in the central highlands where upslope may focus snow showers a bit more and where temps will be a couple of degrees cooler.  Anyone could see a quick/likely brief dusting though Tuesday as the snow showers ramp up overland. 

Any more organized LES by Tuesday afternoon will likely break up, however, with remarkably cold 500mb temps of around -40C expect numerous convective snow showers to continue across much of the state Tuesday afternoon.  The snow showers will be briefly heavy and may quickly produce a dusting where they track.  In the higher terrain, there may be somewhat better odds at enough snow showers during the afternoon for a little additional accumulation, though normally this time of year any accumulations from these convective snow showers melt pretty quickly between showers.  Temps outside of perhaps the higher terrain in north-central and northeastern OH/NW PA where it will be close to freezing will be in the mid to upper 30s between snow showers.  The main concern with the diurnal convective snow showers will be visibility reductions and perhaps briefly slick roads. 

A sharp surface trough drops across the lake into north-central and NE OH Tuesday evening.  The models have shown this feature for several runs and it appears to be tied to a vort max at 700mb rotating around the western edge of the trough.  The vort max may cause a further intensification of the diurnal snow showers late Tuesday afternoon from western OH to SE OH, and as the sun goes down any lingering intense snow showers could drop a quick half inch or inch before weakening overnight with the loss of daytime heating.  The big concern will remain significant visibility reductions and brief slick roads.   Downwind of Lake Erie, the sharp surface trough when combined with soundings showing instability and moisture to over 13k feet will likely result in a brief but intense period of squalls during the evening.  Moisture from Lake Huron again looks to work into NE OH with this feature.  Some global models bring the Lake Huron moisture towards Mansfield again in this timeframe, but with a NW to NNW flow will again side with the hi-res NAM and RGEM that drop the Lake Huron moisture into the Cleveland area and surrounding Snowbelts.  With this burst occurring near or after sundown it should accumulate downwind of Lake Erie.  The best may again be in NE OH as opposed to NW PA in this timeframe given closer proximity to the mid-level vort max and track of the upstream moisture.  Organization (lack thereof) and short duration will probably limit amounts, but given the very deep instability and sharp nature of the trough, a quick dusting to locally 3” is possible downwind of Lake Erie Tuesday evening, especially in the higher terrain where it’ll be a little colder and where precip amounts will be maximized.  This may cause a period of hazardous travel conditions. 

Another little shortwave/spoke of synoptic moisture/lift drops through Wednesday morning.  Some disagreement to how far west this gets.  NW PA looks like a good bet, and many models do at least hit the primary NE OH Snowbelt.  Cleveland area is iffier, though the 18z NAM and RGEM do get a burst of snow as far west as the secondary Snowbelt.  With decent looking snow ratios, a favorable WNW to NW upslope flow, duration of perhaps several hours in NW PA, and enough low-level instability for decent lake enhancement, this may produce decent accumulations.  Snow rates of an inch per hour may occur in the higher terrain.  Will expect 3-6” in interior NW PA, 2-4” in the higher terrain in the primary NE OH Snowbelt, and 1-2” in the higher terrain of the secondary NE OH Snowbelt late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning.  This is all dependent on how far west the lobe of synoptic moisture/lift gets, which is uncertain.  Adjustments up or down are possible.  Should be a decent lull Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday between systems. 

For total accums…in the higher terrain in the primary NE OH Snowbelt, am going around 1” tonight, 0.5-2” Tuesday morning, less than 0.5” Tuesday afternoon, 1-3” Tuesday evening, and 2-4” late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for 4.5-10.5” (will call it 4-8” for now).  Some melting may occur during the day Tuesday between snow showers.  In the secondary Snowbelt am figuring 0.5 to 1” tonight, 0.5-2” Tuesday morning, less than 0.5” Tuesday afternoon, 1-3” Tuesday evening, and 1-2” late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for about 3-6” total.  For NW PA am thinking 4-8” in the higher terrain, as the snow through Tuesday evening may not be that impressive there, but that will likely be made up for late Tuesday night/early Wednesday.  Some models have more QPF there Wednesday morning, so that will have to be watched.  Will also drag 1-3” into the central highlands and also the rest of NE OH south of the Snowbelt due to decent bursts of snow working south from the lake, especially Tuesday evening.  Do think all of OH is at risk for some quick bursts of snow producing a dusting Tuesday into Tuesday evening.  With a short fetch off the lake and milder temps near the water, am expected a good bit less snow near the lakeshore than in the higher terrain inland. 

The period between late Tuesday PM and Wednesday AM may prompt some advisories in NW PA and perhaps the higher terrain of the NE OH Snowbelts.  If the wetter solutions pan out for early Wednesday inland Erie County could flirt with needing a warning. 

Here's my map for NE OH:

[dta1984]

1.5" on the deck this morning. March has now become my snowiest month.  Crazy year. 

[OHweather]

1.1" here overnight.  Just had another squall drop a quick quarter inch.  The squall potential across much of the state looks good this afternoon and evening.  A few strikes out lightning could even occur. 

[NEOH]

Just now, OHweather said:

1.1" here overnight.  Just had another squall drop a quick quarter inch.  The squall potential across much of the state looks good this afternoon and evening.  A few strikes out lightning could even occur. 

These squalls mean business. An absolute whiteout here in Chagrin right now. The next couple of days could put me close to 100" for the season which would be right around normal. 

[dta1984]

Had 2" fall throughout the day.  Pleasantly surprised.  The elevation definitely helped .  Running total at 3.5".

[OHweather]

Only 0.6” since my last measurement for 1.7” so far.  In the few areas that were bare that new snow has actually melted.  About 4” on the ground on average.  Nice squalls lined up into MI sliding across the lake over the next few hours so we will see how it goes. 

[dta1984]

2.5" yesterday evening and overnight. Running total at 6".  Pretty impressive March so far compared to the last several years. 

[NEOH]

25 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

2.5" yesterday evening and overnight. Running total at 6".  Pretty impressive March so far compared to the last several years. 

Measured about the same here. The snow is fluffy and blowing around. Yeah, this has been an impressive March considering it is only the 14th. 

Snow depth in my yard varies greatly... with just a couple of inches in the wet areas that get sun, to 12"+ in the shady areas. 

[OHweather]

Measured 1.4” new as of 9am for an event total of 4.1”.  It’s been snowing decently since, at times moderate and blowing some.  

[dta1984]

Had an extremely compacted 1.75" on the deck that fell during the day.  Event total 7.75". 

[OHweather]

Had a hard time getting a good measurement on the new snow since it started melting in the warmer/thinner spots as it was still falling, but will estimate around half an inch for an event total of 4.6”.  If it was January I probably would’ve gotten a good 1-2” during the day today. 

[MAIDEsNow]

5" today, 3.5" last night, and 1.5" yesterday - event total of 10". This March is now the second snowiest at a tidy 37.0" and only 2.6" needed to have my best March ever. Making this winter much better now than my opinion of it at the end of February. About 17" otg, best all winter.

Speaking of deep snow, I went out to the property I am buying right along the PA/NY state line by Peak N Peek and The Wilderness Lodge resorts, 1765' elevation. Realtor let me put up the Sale Pending sign. I walked back to the cabin, snow was from over my knees to just below my waist. Incredible depth out there! Got some pictures that I may put up later. When I walked the property after the big thaw late Feb, it was pretty much down to grass, mud, a little snow here & there. Just an insane amount of snow they have received in the first two weeks of March for that current snow-depth. I'm certain though that it can't touch the Airport snowfall...

[NEOH]

12 hours ago, MAIDEsNow said:

5" today, 3.5" last night, and 1.5" yesterday - event total of 10". This March is now the second snowiest at a tidy 37.0" and only 2.6" needed to have my best March ever. Making this winter much better now than my opinion of it at the end of February. About 17" otg, best all winter.

Speaking of deep snow, I went out to the property I am buying right along the PA/NY state line by Peak N Peek and The Wilderness Lodge resorts, 1765' elevation. Realtor let me put up the Sale Pending sign. I walked back to the cabin, snow was from over my knees to just below my waist. Incredible depth out there! Got some pictures that I may put up later. When I walked the property after the big thaw late Feb, it was pretty much down to grass, mud, a little snow here & there. Just an insane amount of snow they have received in the first two weeks of March for that current snow-depth. I'm certain though that it can't touch the Airport snowfall...

Your new property sounds like a great spot for LES. Pretty much a jackpot area for multiple wind directions. I'm looking at buying property in South Ripley... hopefully this summer. It doesn't have the elevation of your area but should be a good spot for W and WSW lake effect snows. 

[MAIDEsNow]

Yep, great spot. Snow Capital of Erie county. Will use the cabin for recreation place next several years, then build our forever home. 

South Ripley gets jack-hammered as well - being about half way between Ripley and Findley Lake, gets hit even with a wnw wind, especially if you are down toward County Touring Rte 6 road. Awesome area in general. 

[MAIDEsNow]

Sale Pending!

 

Upper thigh depth, just in front of cabin, about 300' back in off road

 

Buried Picnic Table and benches

 

2 feet on back covered porch

 

Four Foot drift along side of cabin - structure it is built on short stilts.

[NEOH]

Nice pics. That place is buried. Congrats on the new location. 

[OHweather]

Those are some insane pics!  Congrats on getting the property...definitely one of the better spots downwind of Lake Erie for snow. 

There will be a little more LES this afternoon through early Friday...not much, but if there's an upstream lake connection there could be a few inches, most likely downwind of Lake Huron into NW PA.  Maybe a synoptic snow threat around the middle of next week. 

[MAIDEsNow]

Thanks so much. Really excited, little kid on Christmas level.