Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[MAIDEsNow]

This mornings surprise most likely the best snowfall of the winter. 6" from about 4 til 7am, so 3 hours with 2" per hour rates. No wind, nice flake size, simple to measure, and very pretty out there. This snow is only about 1.5" less from yet another underperforming "storm" last Thursday night. I will gladly take it.

[dta1984]

21 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said:

This mornings surprise most likely the best snowfall of the winter. 6" from about 4 til 7am, so 3 hours with 2" per hour rates. No wind, nice flake size, simple to measure, and very pretty out there. This snow is only about 1.5" less from yet another underperforming "storm" last Thursday night. I will gladly take it.

Wow congrats!   The surprises are definitely the best. 

About a half inch here.  Just enough to cover the bare spots. 

[MAIDEsNow]

Thanks! Was quite taken aback at the amount upon opening the garage.

Another note regarding this snowfall - the snowbelt actually got an appreciable amount, while the lakeshore only had an inch or two. About the first time this winter for that dynamic...finally some normalcy.

[OHweather]

I'm glad someone saw a good snow this morning...a big 0.0" here (it may have snowed, but no sign of any when I woke up).  Still am pretty interested in Thursday afternoon-Friday morning here, especially in NE OH for a good amount of snow.  There will probably be a flareup of LES this evening with a WNW wind that will produce some minor accumulations as well. 

[NEOH]

6 hours ago, MAIDEsNow said:

This mornings surprise most likely the best snowfall of the winter. 6" from about 4 til 7am, so 3 hours with 2" per hour rates. No wind, nice flake size, simple to measure, and very pretty out there. This snow is only about 1.5" less from yet another underperforming "storm" last Thursday night. I will gladly take it.

Nice! That's a lot of snow in a short amount of time. As DTA mentioned, just a coating here this morning.

[OHweather]

The lake enhanced flare up this evening looks a little better than I thought.  Good moisture and instability to nearly 10k feet with WNW winds for several hours this evening, and some synoptic snow on radar moving across the lake.  Could be a good 2-4” across much of the snowbelt (a bit less right along the lake) tonight from eastern Cuyahoga east.

Am expecting a good burst of light to moderate snow Thursday afternoon and evening with bursts of heavier snow downwind of the lake into the Cleveland area points east.  Light to moderate lake enhanced snow should continue into early Friday with lighter and less organized lake effect lingering Friday during the day and evening.  

Will re-evaluate a bit when I’m back home but my FB map this morning had 7-13” in the higher terrain from parts of Cuyahoga points east for a total from both shots of snow.  At the moment I still like that general range but may tweak a bit.  This may need a Winter Storm Warning for much of the Snowbelt for Thursday PM-Friday AM with a good burst of higher ratio snow that should pile up a good amount.  

[OHweather]

Have gotten a nice dusting of snow here over the last hour or so with a couple of squalls...here's my map and writeup (this does include the snow falling now)...

A flare-up of snow is beginning to occur as of this writing (4:30PM), with an area of light synoptic snow moving across Lake Erie and grazing the lakeshore.  There may be a bit of lake enhancement of this snow, with some moderate bursts possible.  This will pull east pretty quickly by early to mid-evening, but may drop less than an inch in NE OH east of Cleveland and perhaps a quick 1-2” in Erie County, PA.  Behind this wave of synoptic moisture driven by some weak mid-level deformation lake effect conditions will improve this evening.  Winds will be fairly well aligned at 275-285 in the lowest several thousand feet, with steep lapse rates and good moisture up to 9-10k feet.  In addition, a disorganized area of numerous snow showers from Lake Michigan will move east across Lake Erie into the central lakeshore and NE OH Snowbelt this evening for a few hours, providing good pre-conditioning.  A little 700mb vort max will also move across the lakeshore counties providing for some upward motion below 700mb.  Given all of these generally favorable conditions, some bursts of decent snow are possible from Lorain County (and perhaps extreme northern Medina and Summit Counties) points east this evening mainly between 7pm and midnight.  After midnight, winds back a bit and start pushing the Lake Michigan moisture and lake effect up the shore into the northern primary Snowbelt in NE OH and into NW PA.  Some sinking motion behind the 700mb vort max and a bit of drying in the mid-levels will likely cause the lake effect to become less intense after midnight, though I’d imagine some snow showers will continue in the northern Snowbelt overnight and into early Thursday.  Increasing convergence early Thursday morning may focus a weak band across the lakeshore from Lake County northeast through Erie County, PA. 

All in all, I don’t think the lake effect will be organized or long-lasting enough for a big accum tonight, but I’ve seen these types of setup (deep instability/good pre-seeding, with fairly light winds) produce pretty impressive bursts of snow that can drop an inch or two in an hour or less.  Snow growth isn’t optimal, with some lift in the DGZ this evening but the best lift below it.  This may result in some graupel at times and ratios not much above 10:1.  So, I think I’ll go with a general 1-3” from parts of Lorain County and the Cleveland metro points east.  If a better convergence band can organized into extreme NE OH or NW PA near the lake later tonight, that may allow for some 3-4” amounts, especially since those areas may see a little more from the brief shot of synoptic snow this evening. 

The lake effect should briefly lift out over the lake for everyone in OH and PA Thursday morning as winds turn SWrly.  Synoptic snow will increase Thursday afternoon and peak late afternoon and early evening as a number of things happen.  A compact surface low will drop SE across eastern Lake Erie during the late afternoon and early evening.  The low will likely open up by evening, but will cause a sharp trough and broadly cyclonic and convergent low-level flow on the back-side of it that will push inland off the lake during the late afternoon.  There will also be some low to mid-level frontogenesis along the aforementioned trough axis west of the low as some modified Atlantic air wraps all the way around the storm and comes in from the north.  In addition, there will be a very strong vort max with the closed 500mb low that will drop right into the Cleveland area.  All of these sources of lift…along with steep lapse rates and deep moisture up to around 500mb due to 500mb temps of colder than -35C…will cause moderate to heavy snow.  It wouldn’t shock me if there was some lightning along any stronger convergence-driven bands of heavier snow given the deep layer of steep lapse rates.  Given the deep layer of instability, some lake enhancement, and multiple sources of decent lift, snow rates may hit 2-3” per hour late Thursday afternoon and evening for brief periods with any better bands of snow focused by low-level convergence. 

Am thinking the best period of snow will last about 3 hours in any given area, but may coincide pretty well with the Thursday PM commute and may quickly but down 2-5” of snow in 3 hours, locally more if there are some well-defined bands.  Temps will be right near freezing, but good snow growth and heavy rates should allow for ratios a bit higher than 10:1 despite the somewhat milder surface temps.  Right near the lake may sit a little bit above freezing which may slow accums a bit near the lake, but if it snows hard it will accumulate.  There may be some snow showers for a few hours ahead of the best burst that may produce an inch or so, especially in the higher terrain. 

There is some disagreement with the exact low track, with some models trying to take the low a little farther west and drop the best snow west of Cleveland.  I tend to think the low will hug the relatively warmer waters of Lake Huron and Lake Erie and stay on the eastern side of guidance.  The more consistent models such as the Euro ensembles, UKMET, Canadian, and hi-res NAM since last night agree on the best snow going into the Cleveland metro and NE OH Snowbelt.  NW PA should see a burst in the evening, but the best will likely be in NE OH.  My forecast is based on the premise that the best snows with the system Thursday late afternoon and evening will be from the Cleveland metro east, but mainly west of NW PA. 

Behind the potentially furious burst late Thursday, some lighter snow will linger Thursday night into Friday morning.  Some mid-level isentropic lift could keep patchy light synoptic snow going, as modified Atlantic air continues to ride up the core of the colder air with the upper-level low pulling away to the ESE.  This, along with 850mb temps around -10C and plenty of low-level moisture, along with a WNW flow, will keep light to moderate snow going in the Snowbelt.  The flow may remain somewhat convergent behind the low for the rest of Thursday evening, perhaps allowing for some corridors of more organized snow.  Also will have to watch the zone from Lorain and Medina Counties east across the southern NE OH Snowbelt, as a flow around 290 or so often focused some convergence in that corridor that may keep moderate snow going for a longer period of time. 

One last shortwave moves through late Friday morning/early afternoon, which may keep some light to locally moderate lake effect/enhanced snow going until about noon.  Winds look 280-290, so the snow will likely be focused from Cuyahoga County (and perhaps northern Lorain and extreme northern Summit) points north/east Friday morning, with the heaviest in the higher terrain where good low-level moisture will continue to promote orographic enhancement. 

In terms of total accums…thinking 1-3” tonight (locally 3-4” extreme NE OH into parts of Erie Co)…and then a general 4-8” Thursday afternoon through Thursday night in the primary NE OH Snowbelt, with 3-6” in the secondary Snowbelt and probably 2-5” in NW PA.  If any persistent areas of convergence linger in NE OH, some locally higher amounts may occur Thursday night.  Expect another 1-3” Friday morning from Cuyahoga County and perhaps extreme northern Lorain/Summit points north-east.  Snow showers will continue into Friday evening but will add up to little additional accumulation.  This gives totals of about 5-10” in NW PA (best shot at 10” in the higher terrain of Erie County)…about 6-14” in the higher terrain of the NE OH Snowbelt (will call it 7-13” to trim the range a bit)…and a good half foot or so for parts of the secondary Snowbelt south of Cleveland.  Will drop amounts off to the southwest, though much of northern OH could see some light accumulations from the synoptic snow. 

Here’s my map at this point, which includes the snow falling now. 

[OHweather]

I just got about an inch of snow in 20 minutes with an intense squall.  Possibly the heaviest snow I've seen this winter.  I've missed this since the lake froze last month.  

[OHweather]

Pretty impressive LES band this evening.  Parts of northeastern and east-central Cuyahoga County into northern and central Geauga County will probably see 3-6” of snow as I’ve heard places in NW Geauga already have seen about 4”.  I saw 1.3” earlier this evening with a couple of intense squalls but just flurries since.  

The forecast track of the little low dropping SSE later Thursday has shifted east and a bit slower, putting the focus of the snow more on the evening and likely mainly the primary NE OH Snowbelt.  This may reduce amounts some in the Cleveland area and secondary Snowbelt from initial thoughts, though the primary should still see a good burst of heavy snow.  Time permitting may post a map before work in the morning for additional snowfall with tonight’s lake effect off the boards by then. 

[dta1984]

Last night when I got home I measured 1.25" from the squall.  This morning I have 2" additional of fluff.   Event so far at 3.25".   Wrfs continue to look really good!

[MAIDEsNow]

3.6" of mostly fluff since last night. Easier to move and clear than yesterdays for sure.

17.0" for March thus far.

[OHweather]

0.6” overnight as the band briefly moved over me before dissipating for an event total of 1.9” so far.  

[NEOH]

Picked up around 3" last night. Very fluffy snow. Thanks for the forecast OH Weather. Look forward to seeing what later today/tonight brings. 

[Speedskater]

Two & a half inches of snow overnight (Wed/Thur) near Lakewood Park.

[OHweather]

The lake effect overnight definitely performed better than expected...I'll take it.  Here are some "quick" thoughts and an updated map for additional snow before I'm late for work...

The forecast upper-low and surface low track have shifted east since Wednesday morning’s model runs, which results in the best shot of synoptic lift and snow occurring mainly across the primary NE OH Snowbelt, and also increases the snow a bit for NW PA.  This has resulting in some reduction on the southern and western sides from yesterday.  Forecast amounts for this leg of the event in the primary Snowbelt remain similar, but this map doesn’t reflect last night’s lake effect and only shows additional snow. 

For some specifics, obs and radar support snow rates probably maxing out around 1”/hour in eastern lower MI this morning.  Given a good shot of lift from positive vorticity advection beneath a fairly potent vort max, low to mid-level frontogenesis, and low-level convergence, along with some enhancement from Lake Erie, still think we’re on track to see snow ramp back up this afternoon and peak late afternoon through the evening, with rates of 1-2” per hour still possible at times where the better organized areas of low-level convergence and lake enhancement occur.  Model soundings still show steep lapse rates and moisture to around 500mb for quite a while later this afternoon and this evening in NE OH, with decent snow growth as well until late tonight when the better mid-level support diminishes. 

Wasn’t expecting the lake effect to be so organized and far south still, but think as winds turn SW over the lake over the next few hours that may still try to lift north for a time.  If not, it’s beginning to get enhanced by synoptic moisture and will put down additional accums until it lifts north (assuming it ever does). 

Given a few hours of potentially heavy rates in the primary Snowbelt and getting into the Cleveland area, with some light snow before and also after lingering into Friday morning, think 6-10” of additional snow is still doable.  The snow may diminish for a few hours late tonight and briefly re-intensify Friday morning with a shortwave going by, some lake induced instability, and a flow around 280 degrees, but am only figuring an additional 1-3” Friday morning from Cuyahoga County points north/east.  Lowered amounts a bit in the secondary Snowbelt, but still have 3-6” there.  Winds only get up to 280 to 290 degrees later tonight which can get a band into that area, but it’s a little iffier now and the synoptic snow will be lighter there than initially thought.  Even so, still think they see a 15 or so hour window for snow that’s moderate at times and fairly high ratio, so think several inches will still be possible.  This isn’t a good setup for the lakeshore, so aside from the eastern lakeshore where some lake effect snow is still ongoing this morning am not expecting more than 1-4” along the shore.  Went a little on the higher end of model guidance down towards Akron and Youngstown.  The flow not gaining as much of a northerly component makes it iffier down that way, but the synoptic snow will still push SE this evening and they may still see some lake enhancement, so was nervous to go less than 2-4” for that corridor.  Interior NW PA has a better shot at 4-8” of snow tonight through Friday AM with a better burst of synoptic snow this evening than thought yesterday. 

[MAIDEsNow]

Good call OHweather from your post about a day ago...Winter Storm Warning just hoisted for some inland locations for this afternoon into tomorrow afternoon.

[OHweather]

20 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said:

Good call OHweather from your post about a day ago...Winter Storm Warning just hoisted for some inland locations for this afternoon into tomorrow afternoon.

Nice.  Glad they finally issued some warnings.  Radar looks encouraging so far.

[Benadrill]

Why is the snow breaking up?

[OHweather]

I’m absolutely beat and for the first time in a while am going to bed early during a snow event.  I’ll just have to wake up and look outside in the morning like normal humans do.  1.8” as of my 9pm measurement on the day for a total of 3.7” since Wednesday evening.  

Pretty good area of convergence from northern Lorain Co points east across the Cleveland area and Snowbelt focusing light to moderate snow.  The best snow is in the orographic lift hot spot in NE OH and also probably into parts of NW PA as the low and a potent Huron band push through.  Outside of the lake enhancement the synoptic snow is light.  Copious moisture feeds our snow for a while and 850mb temps hold or cool a bit...and modest synoptic lift continues for several more hours...so the snow should continue at a similar intensity until probably 2am give or take, and even then will only slowly diminish with some synoptic moisture lingering until close to sunrise.  The snow will probably sag south a bit over the next few hours as winds slowly veer, but then the snow should stabilize and inch back north towards morning.  More of a showery lake effect on Friday, not organized but may be a bit bursty as instability improves and another shortwave goes by with a W to WNW flow.   

Overall the forecast appears to be ballpark.  Given how much longer moisture will feed into this setup and a convergent flow with some orographic lift continuing...and half decent ratios...the higher terrain will grind out decent additional amounts overnight. 

[dta1984]

Everything looks good to me. Just cleared 4.5" off of the deck since the afternoon snow began. Event running total at  7.75"

[OHweather]

I thought I was going to bed but the damn cat wasn’t happy with the generous food offering I had for her when I got home and woke me up.  Good thing too because terrain enhancement is really lighting up now and I’m seeing some of the best snow of the event so far here.  Enhanced band of moisture moving towards the primary NE OH Snowbelt the next few hours.  Another better area on the west side producing a good area of light snow in north-central OH.  A bit of a hole near Cleveland but convergence persists over Lorain and Cuyahoga keeping better snow going there despite a bit less moisture.  NW PA appears to be in a lull now.  Pretty cool to see how each variable such as moisture, wind patterns, terrain, and synoptic lift affect the snow in real time. 

[Benadrill]

It didn't really snow much here. You can still see the grass poking out of the snow in a lot of lawns.

[dta1984]

Just cleared another 9" off of my deck that fell between 10pm last night and now.  Running storm total at 16.75".  Incredible. 

[OHweather]

6.5” additional overnight for a total so far of 8.3” from “round 2” and 10.2” storm total. 

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, Benadrill said:

It didn't really snow much here. You can still see the grass poking out of the snow in a lot of lawns.

There were a couple of lake enhanced events since January where the winds turned NW and produced well in your area and into Summit and Portage...I guess one had to go the other way eventually. 

[Speedskater]

9AM Friday, almost 3 inches of new overnight snow near Lakewood Park.

[NEOH]

Around 7am I measured an additional 12" since 6pm yesterday. What a nice surprise. 

 

[dta1984]

43 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Around 7am I measured an additional 12" since 6pm yesterday. What a nice surprise. 

 

This winter is trying to revive itself back to normal at least.  

We may tack on 2-3" more....just keeps snowing. 

[NEOH]

1 minute ago, dta1984 said:

This winter is trying to revive itself back to normal at least.  

We may tack on 2-3" more....just keeps snowing. 

Yeah, this storm definitely bumps it up a grade. A pic from around 5am when it was still ripping, then after sunrise.

 

 

 

 

[MAIDEsNow]

I am glad you guys are getting good snows, awesome and nice pics! Getting my fair share here, about 8" total from yesterday and overnight til this morning. University weather cam continues to show some snow.

However, that is not my point of this post...

In the grand scheme of things it is not all that important, but since my co-workers just laugh at me and my passion for snow, I am going to share with you fine folks. The Erie Airport snowfall recording is completely, totally, & hysterically inaccurate. I don't know how to illustrate it otherwise, so below is the screen shot of CLE Snow Reports from last night.

Unless it is a typo, that top spot in Erie County at the Erie Airport of 6.1" is absurd. My employment is just down the road from there - it did not snow at all yesterday, some flurries from time to time and often partly cloudy. The idea that 6" of snow fell in the 12 hour window of 9am til 9pm on 3/8 is crazy. Heck, even thru this morning as of 9am - a 24 hour window - the total snow is about 2" max here where I work.

I just further cements in my mind that the snowfall record for Erie this winter in nowhere near the number of inches listed.