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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


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5 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Snow is just starting to come down in Chagrin. Nice flake size. Temps are just above freezing though. We'll see what tonight brings.

This one kind of snuck up.  Should be good for several inches.  The short range models look to bring .5" or so of qpf just to our north. 

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19 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

I've got 8" in several spots on the deck. Definitely surprised!   I'll measure again later to make sure I didn't get any drifting. 

I measured 6.2" at 6:30am. There is some drifting so may not be exactly accurate. What a nice surprise... lake enhancement definitely helped. We spend days tracking events that rarely deliver... this was one of the better short terms storms we've had.

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7 minutes ago, NEOH said:

I measured 6.2" at 6:30am. There is some drifting so may not be exactly accurate. What a nice surprise... lake enhancement definitely helped. We spend days tracking events that rarely deliver... this was one of the better short terms storms we've had.

Ya there was definitely some drifting in my measurement it looks like. I'll get a few more when I get home. These last minute events are great!

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Nice, maybe my 8" measurement wasn't too far off.  I'll still double check.  Totally agree, these are the best events.  Especially since the radar didn't look that great yesterday evening.  

My measurement was probably off as it sounds like most came in with around 8". Still getting some decent bursts of snow.

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

7.1" here in Bedford Heights, very nice storm.  It's these kinds of storms that make our winters fun...not the big events 5 days out that slowly fall apart as we get closer.  

If we could only keep some open water on the lake we'd probably see more of these events throughout the winter.

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Here's my compilation of totals from the PNSs...not quite an exhaustive list but pretty close..

Ashtabula County:
Jefferson: 11.5"
Lenox: 11.0"
Dorset 1 east: 10.3"
Monroe Township: 9.0"
Geneva 7 south: 7.0"
Conneaut: 5.5"
Andover: 5.5"
Geneva: 5.0"
North Kingsville: 3.5"

Ashland County:
Ashland: 1.0"

Crawford County:
Gallion: 2.0"

Cuyahoga County:
North Royalton: 8.3"
Chagrin Falls: 8.0"
Beachwood: 8.0"
Bedford Heights: 7.1"
Solon: 6.0"
Strongsville 1 southeast: 6.0"
Euclid: 4.0"
Cleveland-West Park: 4.0"
Westlake: 3.0"

Erie County:
Wakeman 4 north-northeast: 3.2"
Berlin Heights: 2.6"
Huron: 2.0"
Castalia 1 northeast: 2.0"

Geauga County:
Chardon 2 north: 8.2"
Chardon: 7.3"
Montville: 6.5"
Aquilla 3 east: 6.0"
Madison 4 south-southeast: 6.0"
South Madison: 5.0"
Burton: 4.0"

Hancock County:
Findlay: 0.7"

Huron County:
New London 3 northwest: 4.3"
Bellevue: 3.5"

Knox County:
Fredericktown 4 north-northwest: 1.0"

Lake County:
Kirtland 4 southwest: 5.1"
Madison Village: 4.8"
Madison-On-The-Lake: 4.5"
Wickliffe 1 east-northeast: 3.8"
Mentor: 3.7"
Perry Township: 3.5"

Lorain County:
Oberlin 1 south: 6.0"
Elyria: 3.6"
Lorain 3 south: 3.4"
Sheffield Lake: 2.0"

Lucas County:
Berkey 3 south: 2.1"
Toledo Express Airport: 1.3"

Mahoning County:
Canfield: 3.5"
Washingtonville 4 north-northwest: 3.0"
Boardman: 2.0"
Austintown: 1.0"

Medina County:
Hinckley: 6.5"
Montrose-Ghent 4 west-northwest: 5.5"
Homerville: 3.5"
Brunswick: 3.1"
Lodi: 1.8"

Ottawa County:
Elmore 5 east: 2.2"
Port Clinton 2 west: 1.7"

Portage County:
Mantua: 5.5"
Sugar Bush Knolls: 4.2"
Hiram: 3.5"
Kent: 3.2"
Ravenna: 3.0"

Richland County:
Lexington: 1.5"
Mansfield 7 northeast: 1.0"
Mansfield: 1.0"

Stark County:
Alliance: 2.0"
Jackson Twp: 1.8"
East Canton 1.5"
Waynesburg: 1.3"
Magnolia: 1.2"

Summit County:
Sagamore Hills: 9.8"
Macedonia 3 south-southwest: 6.6"
Bath Twp: 3.9"
Twinsburg: 3.9"
Cuyahoga Falls 1 east-southeast: 3.8"
Fairlawn: 3.6"
Cuyahoga Falls: 3.5"
Akron-West Side: 3.4"
Monroe Falls: 3.4"
Tallmadge: 2.7"
Akron 1 west: 2.5"
Green: 2.1"

Trumbull County:
Newton Falls: 3.1"
Mosquito Creek Lake: 1.8"

Wayne County:
Dalton: 2.0"
Wooster: 1.0"

Wood County:
Bowling Green 2 northwest: 0.8"

.

 

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Looking forward to a more active pattern. Hopefully it delivers for the lower lakes region. Noticed that CLE's snowfall total looked low compared to surrounding areas. Not surprising I guess.

You can really notice the lengthening days. Over 10 hours of daylight now... about the same amount of daylight as November 9th.

 

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I'll update the above list after work with additional snow from yesterday...mainly in Ashtabula County. 

Ok LES setup tomorrow night into Friday.  Well aligned NW flow with good thermodynamics for high ratio snows.  EL heights up to 7-8k feet and decent moisture up to the inversion with lake to 850mb differentials of better than 20C.  Short fetch and could be a deeper layer of instability so I doubt we see a huge snow, but given the possible fluff factor I could see some areas seeing a few inches in the higher terrain.  A potential Superior-Michigan connection into the high terrain of NW PA may be enough for some areas to see 4-8" over the course of 24 hours...I'm thinking a 2-4" snow in NE OH in the higher terrain and less elsewhere through Friday...then a few synoptic threats Saturday through next week. 

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

I re measured yesterday and came up with 7.5".  It's definitely settled quite a bit today.  

Nam 3k had a narrow band with what looks like a connection from Lake Michigan through se Cuyahoga.  

The WRF has the band as well. The arw is NE of here, and the nmm is about the same location as the NAM. It will definitely be driven by an upstream connection which is a wild card.

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6 minutes ago, NEOH said:

The GFS weenie runs continue... with multiple storm chances for the OV region. The Euro looked good as well. We have the brief (and light) LES event tonight/tomorrow, clipper Sunday, and the mid-week storm on the table. Great to have an active pattern for a change.

Ya, I'm liking that it will be more active.   Definitely has the potential to be a very snowy 7 days or so.  

It would be nice to get a 6"+ non lake effect storm. 

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A bit more optimistic for the LES in NE OH tonight.  Should be a relative burst for a few hours this evening into the overnight ahead of the shortwave with upstream moisture helping and good ratios.  It looks like the Superior-Michigan connection may lock into the east side for a few hours then into the morning before weakening and drifting east into the afternoon.  Ratios will lower late tonight into Friday due to the cold.  Thinking given a nice high ratio burst ahead of the shortwave and an upstream connected band lingering into morning several inches could fall in the high terrain from eastern Cuyahoga County points east.  Will go a general 2-5" higher terrain eastern Cuyahoga, southern Lake, much of Geauga, inland Ashtabula, perhaps grazing NE Summit and northern Portage, and interior Erie and northern Crawford County.  It may be worth an advisory if a band lingers on the east side during rush hour.  Think the best upstream connection stays in NE OH so will just go 2-5" interior NW PA. Also thinking 1-3" for the secondary Snowbelt down into Medina, Summit, Portage, Trumbull and northern Mahoning with a NW flow. 

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3 hours ago, OHweather said:

A bit more optimistic for the LES in NE OH tonight.  Should be a relative burst for a few hours this evening into the overnight ahead of the shortwave with upstream moisture helping and good ratios.  It looks like the Superior-Michigan connection may lock into the east side for a few hours then into the morning before weakening and drifting east into the afternoon.  Ratios will lower late tonight into Friday due to the cold.  Thinking given a nice high ratio burst ahead of the shortwave and an upstream connected band lingering into morning several inches could fall in the high terrain from eastern Cuyahoga County points east.  Will go a general 2-5" higher terrain eastern Cuyahoga, southern Lake, much of Geauga, inland Ashtabula, perhaps grazing NE Summit and northern Portage, and interior Erie and northern Crawford County.  It may be worth an advisory if a band lingers on the east side during rush hour.  Think the best upstream connection stays in NE OH so will just go 2-5" interior NW PA. Also thinking 1-3" for the secondary Snowbelt down into Medina, Summit, Portage, Trumbull and northern Mahoning with a NW flow. 

The NAM and WRF continue to highlight the eastern cuyahoga/western geauga area on southeast. The fetch will be coming over an area of relatively ice free water.

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 Only 0.2" overnight.

October, November, and January each ended up below average in snowfall. December was above, but obviously nothing like other parts Erie County (even though ERI December reported totals were much higher than what actually fell imo). Overall, only 10" below where I am typically at and the end of January, but seems like alot more "wouldofs and couldofs" than usual. A winter of disappointment and underachievers imby.

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1 minute ago, dta1984 said:

Didn't get a chance to measure,  but seems right.  Cle mentions lake effect picking back up later.  Looks like the remnants of the band are around se Cuyahoga now. 

We'll probably see a flare up as winds back more westerly. I bet ice is forming pretty rapidly on the open water with the cold temps which is probably cutting down on moisture.

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Perhaps I over measured a bit, but had 0.3" yesterday morning and 3.8" last night. Had a few hours of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow.  

Should be a general 1-2" snow tonight, but a narrow band of moderate high-ratio snow may survive this far to the east and drop a narrow corridor (a county or two wide) of 3-4" of fluffy snow near Cleveland. 

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