OHweather Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 LPR to the ESE of PCW hit -13F last night before fog and even some light snow developed, and LPR is often one of the warmer spots in the Cleveland area, so I can believe the -14F at PCW since it's in a fairly rural spot and surrounded by the ice covered Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Here is a graph showing Lake Erie ice cover percentages. As you can see, we pretty much went from zero to completely ice covered in a matter of days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Here is a graph showing Lake Erie ice cover percentages. As you can see, we pretty much went from zero to completely ice covered in a matter of days: The coming winds this weekend should open up some areas again. If the bottom falls out again later next week then it looks like Erie will be out of business by the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Chinook my dad works right by there and his car was reading -10 so I do believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The coming winds this weekend should open up some areas again. If the bottom falls out again later next week then it looks like Erie will be out of business by the end of January. It's pretty much closed for business right now. With such a significant amount of ice concentration it can only push around so much. There will be the usual break up/open area just east of the western basin. Here's the ice concentration... pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 To add to that on my buddy's pond that we play hockey on we went from no ice two weeks ago to now almost a foot thick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Interesting disco from CLE. Clearly there are no weenies working there. Unless I'm mistaken, aren't we looking at an 18 hour window or so with temps in the upper 30's? I'm not sure that qualifies as warm spell. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GLANCING BLOW AS WELL. THE ONE GOOD THING IS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND WILL HELP MELT OFF SOME OF THIS SNOW PACK WEHAVE IN PLACE. SO FAR...QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR RUNOFF AND RAPID STREAM RISES AND PROBLEMS WITH ICE JAMMING. BUT...AS ALWAYS...WILL KEEP A WATCH ON THE ICE SITUATION THROUGH THE WARM SPELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 That's kind of funny. I can't imagine there are many meteorologists that don't find snowfall exciting. It's hard to believe that a degreed meteorologist would prefer 38 and rain over snow in January. I think 95%+ of this board would find 30s and rain the most miserable kind of weather out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 That's kind of funny. I can't imagine there are many meteorologists that don't find snowfall exciting. It's hard to believe that a degreed meteorologist would prefer 38 and rain over snow in January. I think 95%+ of this board would find 30s and rain the most miserable kind of weather out there. Well, its safe to say he's definitely not a winter sports enthusiast Afternoon model runs continue the boring pattern. Hopefully we can cash in on the clipper parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Now we have one day in the mid 30's counting as a January thaw next weekend lol ONE TROUGH AFTER ANOTHER ROTATES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THEPERIOD WITH A TREND TOWARD BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND.SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ONWEDNESDAY TAKING THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION WITH IT IN THE FORM OFSOME LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE...AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS STAGERIGHT...MORE ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE FORECASTAREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GLANCING BLOW OF THE ARCTICAIR WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION INTO MAINE ANDNOVA SCOTIA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND WE SHOULD START TO SEETHE EFFECTS OF ANOTHER JANUARY THAW BY THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKENDAS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. BUT WE CANT GET TOO EXCITED ATTHIS POINT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTOTHE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE WARMER AIR TO AN ABRUPT END.BUT IN THE MEAN TIME...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE LAKESAND WE COULD SEE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECTSNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. LAKE ERIE IS ABOUT THREE FOURTHSICE COVERED WITH A HOLE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS UP BY BUFFALO.ALTHOUGH...WE CANT RULE OUT THE LAKE MACHINE BECAUSE WE HAVE HADEVENTS OF SNOW WITH A COMPLETELY ICE COVERED LAKE DUE TO MOISTUREFLUX FROM THE ICE ITSELF AND THROUGH THE CRACKS.WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE COLD AIREXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE. The Tuesday-Wednesday clipper could be somewhat interesting, but I think it might slide just too far north for you guys. And then we'll go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Now we have one day in the mid 30's counting as a January thaw next weekend lol ONE TROUGH AFTER ANOTHER ROTATES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TREND TOWARD BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY TAKING THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION WITH IT IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE...AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS STAGE RIGHT...MORE ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GLANCING BLOW OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION INTO MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF ANOTHER JANUARY THAW BY THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. BUT WE CANT GET TOO EXCITED AT THIS POINT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE WARMER AIR TO AN ABRUPT END. BUT IN THE MEAN TIME...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE LAKES AND WE COULD SEE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. LAKE ERIE IS ABOUT THREE FOURTHS ICE COVERED WITH A HOLE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS UP BY BUFFALO. ALTHOUGH...WE CANT RULE OUT THE LAKE MACHINE BECAUSE WE HAVE HAD EVENTS OF SNOW WITH A COMPLETELY ICE COVERED LAKE DUE TO MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE ICE ITSELF AND THROUGH THE CRACKS. WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE COLD AIR EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE. The Tuesday-Wednesday clipper could be somewhat interesting, but I think it might slide just too far north for you guys. And then we'll was a from there. The folks at CLE just can't get enough of the warmth.... They should look for jobs in the south. Up to 42/32 Imby. Not a lot of melting with the low DP. The snow is compacting though. The 12z gfs was a nice hit with the clipper. Looked like the euro brought it right over us though. Great post on the upcoming pattern btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The folks at CLE just can't get enough of the warmth.... They should look for jobs in the south. Up to 42/32 Imby. Not a lot of melting with the low DP. The snow is compacting though. The 12z gfs was a nice hit with the clipper. Looked like the euro brought it right over us though. Great post on the upcoming pattern btw. Thanks, hopefully the pattern can deliver at some point. Probably will snow on January 30 or February 1 as those are when I'm driving to/from home next. We hit 54 in Athens, just snow piles left here, although that's been the case for a few days. It's possible the clipper drops a 1-3" type snow, the models keep edging south with it, so it's looking better for northern Ohio now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Well, looks like the thaw is over. Rain/snow mix most of the morning has transitioned to flurries. Still a nice 3-4 inches out there. I'll take this type of January thaw any day. Only places showing grass are the wind swept areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 I was driving on the Shoreway and it looked like all the ice was gone outside of the typical shore ice. Winds/thaw must have broken it up or pushed it out into the central lakeshore. I'm curious what the visible satellite will look like, it wouldn't shock me if the ice that had formed this past week was quite thin. Temperatures this week don't look as cold as originally forecasted, so perhaps we can keep the central basin somewhat ice free a little bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Some nice bursts of snow with a trough pushing through. I bet the ice did break up enough to allow some extra moisture to get picked up off the lake...someone could get 2-3" in Medina or south of Akron where the better band is. There were several rather unexpected light to moderate LES events last winter after the lake seemed to freeze due to winds moving the ice around and making holes, we could get that this year at times too. Edit: Yeah, this ice wasn't that thick as Trent suggested. Can definitely see how several hours in the 40's Saturday and good southerly winds made a nice hole along the southern shoreline. We won't be clear again for a while, although it won't be cold enough to really solidify things this week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Picked up .5" last night. Enough to whiten up the old snow. On to the clipper train this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Snowing pretty hard in Chagrin. Radar is filling in to the west as well. If this continues an inch+ would be a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 CLE is calling for the heaviest snow from Toledo through CLE. 3" seems a bit much but we'll see. 312 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD REACH THE I-71 CORRIDOR AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF AS MUCH AS INCH COULD OCCUR ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK. ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHTHOURS WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN A LINE FROM NEAR TOLEDO THROUGH THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA TO NEAR YOUNGSTOWN. UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THOSEAREAS WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Seems high, but it would be nice to get an overachiever (relative to expectations). Radar looked good earlier this morning, but everything slid south. Hopefully it's our turn tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 CLE optimistic for next week HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. IF MODELS PLAY OUT AS THEY ARE SAYING...THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD BE A MAJOR SNOW MAKER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AS ALWAYS...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM SO WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS ONE CLOSELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 There's some reason to be kind of optimistic about tomorrow's clipper... You guys will get into the left-exit quadrant of a jet-streak for a few hours tomorrow morning, and will also be in an area of mid-level frontogenesis for several hours as well. The NAM shows the best lift juxtaposed in the snow growth zone tomorrow morning as well. I could see a few hours of moderate snow working out, I'd go with a 1-3" forecast personally. I can see how someone gets 3" or so but think it would be in a relatively narrow corridor. As for Sunday/Monday, the Euro shows the shortwave with that "super clipper" closing off at 500mb over the Ohio Valley and show it taking on a modest negative tilt as it passes overhead (the e-wall plots are pretty low resolution, some higher resolution sources show a closed off contour at 500mb). That smells like a potential overperformer, but it may end up being better for Columbus than you if the GFS and Euro hold their track. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Bands have set up nicely on the west side. Flake size seems a bit disappointing thus far and radar looks more impressive than in actuality. Perhaps things will improve in a bit as better returns slide in. I think 2" seems reasonable at this point, especially for areas around Lorain County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Flake size seems to have increased compared to earlier this morning. There are some heavy returns out in Lorain and w cuyh counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just eyeballing it looks like an inch or so in Chagrin. The easterly winds seem to weaking the precip as it pushes north. The snow band is pushing north quickly. Hopefully we can get another inch. I wasn't expecting the snow to be exiting so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 CLE reporting heavy snow with an inch in the last hour. Looks like they've had 2 inches so far. The easterly winds with downsloping has really eroded some of the snow as it pushes northeast. If one were to look at the radar since this started, you'd have though the west side would be pushing 4-5" already. Must have been a lot of dry air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The snow has tapered off in Chagrin. Just measured 1.5". Damn easterly downslope flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Foggy with freezing drizzle/mist in Chagrin. Radar looks to be filling back in over the lake . Edit: Looks like a trough is over the lake. Wondering if it will sink south overnight or just move east. Some pretty nice returns out toward the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Measured 2" with some ice on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 QPF amounts were decent yesterday, ratios were not as we hovered around freezing. The little spike in temps in the afternoon allowed for some foggy drizzle that resulted in some compaction. We are nickel and diming our way at normal. Interestingly, this year only has 3" less than last year on the same date. It really doesn't feel like 33" of snow has fallen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Light snow most of this morning. Not really amounting to much, but nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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