NEOH Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Good disco from the WPC on the Friday/Saturday storm. Interesting that the euro jumped so far west last night... it probably has been the least consistent model with this storm but hard to ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 hours ago, NEOH said: Good disco from the WPC on the Friday/Saturday storm. Interesting that the euro jumped so far west last night... it probably has been the least consistent model with this storm but hard to ignore it. We are definitely riding a fine line. 12z GFS still keeps us in it, although it did move west some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 hours ago, dta1984 said: We are definitely riding a fine line. 12z GFS still keeps us in it, although it did move west some. And just like that the 12z comes east... significantly. It's going to be fun watching the models the next few days. If I had to guess, I'd say west of 71 in Ohio jackpots while we mix for quite some time. Looks like the one thing we want is the low to dig as far south as possible before it turns northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 On 1/8/2018 at 1:18 PM, dta1984 said: 2.5" event total here. Just drizzle now, temp 33. Still looking good next weekend. If anything I'd be more worried about a miss to the southeast. Ha! You jinxed the storm DTA. Crazy trends with the models. We'll see what happens with the overnight runs but definitely looking like a less than impressive event after looking at 12z. Still a decent storm but if trends continue down this path we'll be too far west for anything appreciable. The melting has started. Probably won't be much snow left by Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 19 minutes ago, NEOH said: Ha! You jinxed the storm DTA. Crazy trends with the models. We'll see what happens with the overnight runs but definitely looking like a less than impressive event after looking at 12z. Still a decent storm but if trends continue down this path we'll be too far west for anything appreciable. The melting has started. Probably won't be much snow left by Friday morning. Haha most everything today has been weaker and east. The nam runs have been super juiced though and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, dta1984 said: Haha most everything today has been weaker and east. The nam runs have been super juiced though and further west. And there's the 18z with a nice thump. Huge difference's with the various models. OHWeather might want to wait until after the storm to post his snowfall map. Edit: Just noticed CLE issued a watch for the Central counties on Northeast... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches are possible. Ice accumulations of one tenth to around a quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and north central and northeast Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The cle discussion mentions lake enhancement, but seems to discount it due to ice cover. I'd have to think the warmup we're getting will melt and move some of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Whats the timeline for Friday looking like? Need to know if ill have time to drive up from the south that afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, dta1984 said: The cle discussion mentions lake enhancement, but seems to discount it due to ice cover. I'd have to think the warmup we're getting will melt and move some of it. The ice will move around quite a bit so lake enhancement will help. CLE seems to think the only open water is out east but that's not the case. We aren't dealing with a solidly frozen lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, DanTheMan said: Whats the timeline for Friday looking like? Need to know if ill have time to drive up from the south that afternoon Might want to head up before late afternoon. I'd imagine after 3 or so it will start to get snowy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 Watching these models the past few days emphasizes how incredibly difficult it is for Cleveland to score a 6"+ synoptic storm. Still plenty of time for things to turn around, but it would seem this will either end up being a run of the mill 3-6" snowfall or a narrow miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, Trent said: Watching these models the past few days emphasizes how incredibly difficult it is for Cleveland to score a 6"+ synoptic storm. Still plenty of time for things to turn around, but it would seem this will either end up being a run of the mill 3-6" snowfall or a narrow miss. Yep, now the nam slams Youngstown. Crazy the waffling that has gone on. Still... I like that we are in the middle of the recent bullseyes being shown.... Sandusky and now Youngstown. Maybe it'll wiggle back? Edit; 3km nam looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The snow cover is starting to get down to patches. Temps held around 47 IMBY all night. Surprised to see CLE at 56 this morning... that's a pretty large temp spread. Speaking of spreads, here are estimated snowfall totals from the latest model runs (estimated from the snowfall maps) -- GFS - 6-8" Euro - 3-5" RGEM - 6-8" NAM3k - 8-10" NAM12k - 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Clouds cleared out enough to get a decent view of the lake. Lots of open water out there. Hopefully lake enhancement can boost what looks to be our dwindling snowfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 We may have a last second bump NW as the storm actually develops. Everyone gets a good period of sleet tomorrow afternoon which may wreck the roads and have a big impact even if the snow underwhelms. For snow/sleet totals thinking 3-6" for Cleveland and 6-9" a little farther south towards Akron/Youngstown, but that's not a final forecast. When I make my final call maps this afternoon I'll post them, still don't have a great feel/handle for this storm. Thermals don't look great for LES behind the storm but maybe it adds an inch or two locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 52 minutes ago, OHweather said: We may have a last second bump NW as the storm actually develops. Everyone gets a good period of sleet tomorrow afternoon which may wreck the roads and have a big impact even if the snow underwhelms. For snow/sleet totals thinking 3-6" for Cleveland and 6-9" a little farther south towards Akron/Youngstown, but that's not a final forecast. When I make my final call maps this afternoon I'll post them, still don't have a great feel/handle for this storm. Thermals don't look great for LES behind the storm but maybe it adds an inch or two locally. Its not often we hope for a NW bump with a storm... usually hoping for the opposite. I kind of like where we sit at this point. Given the dynamics its hard to believe we aren't seeing a stronger storm on the models... but I'm no meteorologist. In addition to the track and intensity the models seems to be expanding and contracting the precip shield with every run. I have very little confidence either way. Just a guess but I'd go with 5-8" for areas east of 71 in northeast ohio. I do think that lake enahncement will boost totals in the lakeshore counties. Hoping we don't waste a lot of the precip on sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 CLE issued a WSW. Surprised they are calling for a 1/4 inch of ice. That would explain the lower snowfall totals. 6-8" of system snow on top of that much ice wouldn't be good. ..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. A glaze of ice up to a quarter of inch is expected Friday afternoon, then accumulating snow later Friday and Friday night. Total snow accumulations will average 3 to 6 inches outside of the snowbelt and 6 to 8 inches in the snowbelt. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Indeed a surprise...a "glaze" and "1/4 inch" of ice are not synonymous imo. Went to the top of our big coaster about 2 hours ago. A far as I could see, not a lick of ice, save for a little along the shore. Maybe some lake enhancement will be in play. Looking west: Looking east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said: Indeed a surprise...a "glaze" and "1/4 inch" of ice are not synonymous imo. Went to the top of our big coaster about 2 hours ago. A far as I could see, not a lick of ice, save for a little along the shore. Maybe some lake enhancement will be in play. Looking west: Looking east Nice view up there! Even better not to see ice. The southerly winds have probably pushed to the canadian shoreline. The snow is just about melted here and the rain tonight should finish things off. This has been a strange storm to track. Thought it was going to be a true apps runner but has evolved into a weak low riding a cold front. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Posted this in the main thread, will post it here too. Went NW of the Euro as obs appear to suggest there is potential for some last minute NW bump, but I'm still not confident as a couple pieces of hi-res guidance (the ARW and HRRRx in particular) have a lot more snow, but the Euro/Canadian are both like 50-75 miles SE of where I have the swath of heaviest snow. Lake enhancement looks minor, and lake effect on Saturday also looks minor. Could that boost totals by an inch or two somewhere, sure, but thermals don't look good for LES with a very low inversion during the synoptic snow and even on Saturday as the storm pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 13 hours ago, OHweather said: Posted this in the main thread, will post it here too. Went NW of the Euro as obs appear to suggest there is potential for some last minute NW bump, but I'm still not confident as a couple pieces of hi-res guidance (the ARW and HRRRx in particular) have a lot more snow, but the Euro/Canadian are both like 50-75 miles SE of where I have the swath of heaviest snow. Lake enhancement looks minor, and lake effect on Saturday also looks minor. Could that boost totals by an inch or two somewhere, sure, but thermals don't look good for LES with a very low inversion during the synoptic snow and even on Saturday as the storm pulls away. Nice forecast. The models continue to waffle back and forth on snowfall amounts...but the trend pretty clear that areas to the east will see the heaviest snows. Where's that last minute NW shift when we need it?! Didn't take very long to melt all the snow so we will be starting fresh. Even the piles are almost gone at this point. Look forward to seeing what happens later today. What is causing the the low to shift to the EC when it hits PA... The northern stream energy pushing down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Should be interesting to see how it all plays out, and which models had a better handle on things. Seems like these changeover events have high bust potential. A quicker changeover and less sleet would mean more snow, and less if it takes longer. Kind of funny looking at the cle winter page. Chardon has a range of 1 - 14" with a mean of 6". Alot of variance lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This clearly isn't going to work out. We'll see a changeover and messy travel but not more than a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, OHweather said: This clearly isn't going to work out. We'll see a changeover and messy travel but not more than a few inches of snow. Bummer. Can you elaborate? Edit: 12z NAM's weren't that bad. That low take a sudden jog east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, NEOH said: Bummer. Can you elaborate? Edit: 12z NAM's weren't that bad. That low take a sudden jog east though. The issue I'm seeing is the next northern stream shortwave is diving in from the NW just a little too fast. The low is developing good over the south, but that northern piece coming in gives it that last second nudge east, so we're on the outside looking in on the area of better snow tonight. It also probably jumps to the coast a little faster. EDIT: Didn't see your post from about 45 minutes ago. Yeah, it's the northern stream causing the storm to turn east last second and preventing a NW shift. Storm is developing good over the south so I think we woud've been hit really good if the northern stream shortwave was even a few hours slower. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 25 minutes ago, OHweather said: The issue I'm seeing is the next northern stream shortwave is diving in from the NW just a little too fast. The low is developing good over the south, but that northern piece coming in gives it that last second nudge east, so we're on the outside looking in on the area of better snow tonight. It also probably jumps to the coast a little faster. EDIT: Didn't see your post from about 45 minutes ago. Yeah, it's the northern stream causing the storm to turn east last second and preventing a NW shift. Storm is developing good over the south so I think we woud've been hit really good if the northern stream shortwave was even a few hours slower. Ugh. Thanks for the info. The low looks good down south. Wonder if that could be enough to slow down the shortwave. Oh well. This storm has been a mess to track. Edit: 34/33 IMBY. That didn't take long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Heavy ice pellets in Chagrin. Wonder how long the change to snow will take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEOH said: Heavy ice pellets in Chagrin. Wonder how long the change to snow will take. Yep 32 and sleet in Solon. Hopefully the snow switch is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Think we have sleet until at least 3-4pm. Dual pole shows the changeover near Sandusky. We may get a half inch or inch of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 It really is amazing how you could bank on a widespread 6-12" synoptic storm across NE Ohio almost every year or at least every other year. Now, it's becoming once every 8 years. CLE had a 3.7" seasonal snowfall deficit as of yesterday. It practically takes a miracle pattern just to get close to normal these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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