Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

19 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Going to be a nice week if weather.  Dry and 80s.  Would like to start getting into a wet pattern soon. 

OHweather. ...you going to be here for this winter?   You mentioned maybe moving last year. 

What an awesome stretch of weather we've had. August felt more like late September. It has been awfully dry... just 1.30" for the month IMBY. The leaves are dropping like crazy. Much earlier than last year.

[OHweather]

On September 20, 2017 at 5:53 PM, dta1984 said:

Going to be a nice week if weather.  Dry and 80s.  Would like to start getting into a wet pattern soon. 

OHweather. ...you going to be here for this winter?   You mentioned maybe moving last year. 

In all likelihood at least for the first portion of it.  We may rip off 6 straight 90+ days at CLE starting yesterday and lasting through Tuesday. Pretty wild for so late. 

[dta1984]

Good deal, hopefully we have a good winter.  The lake should be primed pretty good with the recent heat wave, and more in early October. 

[NEOH]

Picked up .35" of rain last night... most rain I've had in quite some time. At least it will keep the dust down. I can't remember the last time is was this dry. Back to mild temps, blue skies and sun.

[dta1984]

15 hours ago, NEOH said:

Picked up .35" of rain last night... most rain I've had in quite some time. At least it will keep the dust down. I can't remember the last time is was this dry. Back to mild temps, blue skies and sun.

Nice to see the rain again.  Looks to continue off and on the next week.  Hoping we start to get back into a wetter pattern with snow season quickly approaching. 

[dta1984]

Winter watches and warnings being consolidated.   Looks like we still keep les warning.  

http://www.weather.gov/cle/news_winter_hazard_simplification2017

 

[dta1984]

What a beautiful weekend!   Looks like it may be our last taste of 70s for a while.  Flakes next Sunday? 

[NEOH]

20 hours ago, dta1984 said:

What a beautiful weekend!   Looks like it may be our last taste of 70s for a while.  Flakes next Sunday? 

What a Fall we have had so far. Too bad the leaf color is so dull this year. Lake temps are still in the low 60's. I'm looking forward to a more active weather pattern... and the long range looks cold. Maybe a white Halloween?

[dta1984]

I was out of town for the storms last night,  but looks like they stripped most of the remaining leaves off of the trees.  Glad to see we're back into a wet pattern.   Now just need some cold air.  

[NEOH]

11 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

I was out of town for the storms last night,  but looks like they stripped most of the remaining leaves off of the trees.  Glad to see we're back into a wet pattern.   Now just need some cold air.  

It was a pretty wild storm. Impressive winds... it was loud outside with the combo or rain and high winds. Looks like the worst of it was south of here. We went from extremely dry to wet in a short amount of time.

[NEOH]

Lots of damage at the corner of Snyder Rd and East Washington in Bainbridge. Trees and power lines down all over the place. There seemed to be distinct path on east down East Washington. Wonder if there was a brief spin-up in that area.

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Lots of damage at the corner of Snyder Rd and East Washington in Bainbridge. Trees and power lines down all over the place. There seemed to be distinct path on east down East Washington. Wonder if there was a brief spin-up in that area.

It's possible, although that area was apart of some extremely strong downburst winds that tracked from eastern Lorain County all the way through southern Ashtabula County (estimated by the NWS at 125MPH in SE Ashtabula County, and an "unofficial" measured gust of 105MPH in Aurora) so it's possible that there was a corridor of very strong straight-line winds there as well.  Did you happen to notice what direction the trees blew down in?

Regardless, we're switching gears quickly with the first LES showers of the season Thursday night into Friday.  It's a short fetch event with limited moisture so it won't be impressive, but snow showers/flurries should be around and it'll be very cold for this time of year. 

[dta1984]

4 hours ago, NEOH said:

Lots of damage at the corner of Snyder Rd and East Washington in Bainbridge. Trees and power lines down all over the place. There seemed to be distinct path on east down East Washington. Wonder if there was a brief spin-up in that area.

You aren't kidding!   East on Washington is closed at Snyder.   Here's a few pics.  One looking east and one west.

[NEOH]

21 hours ago, OHweather said:

It's possible, although that area was apart of some extremely strong downburst winds that tracked from eastern Lorain County all the way through southern Ashtabula County (estimated by the NWS at 125MPH in SE Ashtabula County, and an "unofficial" measured gust of 105MPH in Aurora) so it's possible that there was a corridor of very strong straight-line winds there as well.  Did you happen to notice what direction the trees blew down in?

Regardless, we're switching gears quickly with the first LES showers of the season Thursday night into Friday.  It's a short fetch event with limited moisture so it won't be impressive, but snow showers/flurries should be around and it'll be very cold for this time of year. 

Its hard to tell the direction the trees fell... although it seems they fell from a south to north direction. A little further south on Synder around Kenston schools power poles were down as well. Just east of the picture DTA posted is Wood Acre trail that had significant damage which continued on east through the Auburn lakes community. Looking forward to a seeing some flakes late this week.

[OHweather]

12 hours ago, NEOH said:

Its hard to tell the direction the trees fell... although it seems they fell from a south to north direction. A little further south on Synder around Kenston schools power poles were down as well. Just east of the picture DTA posted is Wood Acre trail that had significant damage which continued on east through the Auburn lakes community. Looking forward to a seeing some flakes late this week.

That's definitely some impressive tree damage.  CLE did issue a pretty long statement this afternoon about the corridor of damaging winds...no evidence of rotation, but estimating gusts of up to 105MPH in some areas which will do a lot of damage.  Very rare for this area to get such strong winds...and also a lot of tornadoes, especially in north-central OH

...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE CONFIRMED FROM SOUTHEAST LORAIN
COUNTY OHIO TO SOUTHERN GEAUGA COUNTY OHIO...

Location...Southeastern Lorain County, Northern Medina County,
Southern Cuyahoga County, Northern Summit County, Northern Portage
County, and Southern Geauga County
Date...November 5, 2017
Estimated Time...5:40 PM to 6:30 PM EST
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...105 mph
Maximum Path Width...7 miles
Path Length...58 miles
Fatalities...0
Injuries...0

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

...Summary...
The National Weather Service in Cleveland OH has determined that
the damage from Southeast Lorain County to Southern Geauga County
Ohio on November 5, 2017 was thunderstorm straight line wind
damage from a series of microbursts or macrobursts.

A squall line moving west to east produced significant straight-
line wind damage in southeastern Lorain County, northern Medina
County, southern Cuyahoga County, northern Summit County, northern
Portage County, and southern Geauga County. Based upon the damage
received in these locations and radar data, it is determined that
a downburst produced winds up to 105 mph through the affected
area.

Wind damage was reported as far west as Lagrange, Grafton, and
Columbia in southeastern Lorain County with trees and power poles
downed. The microburst wind continued east into northern Medina
county, where significant tree and power pole damage was noted in
Liverpool Township and the Brunswick Hills areas. Damage in
Cuyahoga County was mainly limited to south of State Route 82 in
Strongsville, North Royalton, Broadview Heights, and Brecksville.
There was extensive tree damage to these areas with many trees
snapped or uprooted to the east, some falling into homes and cars.

The damaging winds continued into northern Summit County.
Significant damage, mainly from falling trees, was noted in
northern Richfield, Sagamore Hills, Northfield Center, Macedonia
and Reminderville.

The most intense damage from this event appears to be in the
Twinsburg area in Summit County. Widespread tree damage occurred
with trees falling onto residences and cars across the city.
Siding was peeled from homes. East of Twinsburg, damage occurred
across the county line in Aurora. An automated wind sensor in
Aurora measured a peak wind gust of 105 mph. Trees and power poles
were downed across the area; with the bulk of the damage occurring
along State Route 82 and north. There was also damage at Aurora
High School with metal bleachers displaced at the athletic fields.
Mantua Township also suffered significant tree damage with
several trees snapped and displaced to the east.

Geauga County suffered extensive straight-line wind damage, mainly
in the southern townships. Aside from the tree and power pole
damage, a church steeple was toppled in Bainbridge Township and a
fire department communications tower fell in Auburn Township.
Trees fell onto several residences across this area as well.

The damage across all of the areas outlined above prompted school
closures for a number of school districts and numerous road
closures that have continued for several days. Power outages were
extensive.

This information can also be found on our website at
weather.gov/cle.

For Reference:
A microburst is a convective downdraft with an affected outflow
area of less than 2 1/2 miles wide and peak winds lasting less
than 5 minutes. Microbursts may induce dangerous horizontal and
vertical wind shears, which can adversely affect aircraft
performance and cause property damage. Straight-line winds are
generally any wind that is not associated with rotation, used
mainly to differentiate them from tornadic winds.

A macroburst is a convective downdraft with an affect outflow area
of at least 2 1/2 miles wide and peak winds lasting more than 5
minutes. Intense macrobursts may cause tornado-force damage of up
to EF3 intensity. Straight-line winds are generally any wind that
is not associated with rotation, used mainly to differentiate
them from tornadic winds.

[OHweather]

I will never write this much about this little snow ever again...but since it's the first of the season, might as well.  Also, I didn't realize I cut off 70% of Erie and Crawford Counties in PA until it was way too late for me to consider re-doing my county outlines tonight, so I apologize that I left those areas off of this map. 

A lobe of the polar vortex grazing the region will bring a brief shot of very cold air for the time of year, with 850mb temperatures falling to around -16C.  Despite the extremely cold air in the low-levels, the trough only grazing Lake Erie and the high pressure building in quickly will cause lowering inversions, dry air, and a short fetch to limit the potential of this lake effect event.

After high temperatures pushing into the lower 50s Thursday afternoon, the strong cold front will cross early to mid-evening marked by a sharp wind shift and wind increase behind the front and quick drop in temperature.  There will be good low-level lift along the front, though moisture will be lacking and the best chance for any precipitation will be downwind of Lake Erie.

Forecast soundings along the front show a fairly deep layer of good moisture and steep lapse rates up to around 8k feet at CLE, which along with good lift below about 7k feet should be enough to get a band of showers pushing in off the lake.  Freezing levels are expected to initially be too high for snow, though moisture does get into the lower portion of the DGZ and the precipitation will be convective, so some graupel could mix in.  The layer of instability is a little bit deeper farther up the lakeshore, so there may be a better chance of graupel farther up the shore.

Behind the immediate front there could be a lull in any shower activity for an hour or two, however, a secondary surface trough along with some mid-level lift is expected to push onshore around 3z/10pm, likely bringing another chance at precipitation:

Between convergence along the trough as winds shift from WNW to more NW/NNW and frictional convergence along the shoreline, there will likely be enough focus for a line/band of precip to push southeast off the lake rather quickly late Thursday evening.  The above model image is surface moisture convergence off of the NAM, and shows some enhanced convergence near the lakeshore coinciding with the trough passage (also note how some weaker convergence extends farther west along the trough, possibly bringing flurries outside of the lake effect areas).

This secondary trough will likely be enhanced by a shot of mid-level vorticity grazing the region shortly behind the cold frontal passage.  This PVA will also add some lift and enhance precipitation chances.

By the time this secondary trough pushes through, conditions will be a bit more favorable for lake effect.  The winds are a little strong with some shear above 6k feet, which will likely limit any organization with the band of precip that pushes through, but there will still be a deep layer that is moist and very unstable.  850mb temperatures will quickly be falling to around -10C as this secondary trough pushes through which is cold enough for snow…though temperatures at the surface will likely still be near or a bit above freezing.

All in all, after an initial round of mainly rain showers with the initial front, a secondary round of snow showers (that may be briefly heavy) will likely move through the Cleveland metro and east side (as well as all the way through the Snowbelt and into NW PA).  The disorganized nature of these snow showers and brief window will limit potential accums, but some areas could see a quick dusting (perhaps a half inch to local inch if there are any particularly heavy snow showers).  There will then be a bit of a lull in the sinking motion behind this trough until some upstream lake connections can develop later Thursday night and into Friday morning.

There will be two potential upstream connections to watch for as the winds come around to the NNW later Friday night:

1)      A Lake Superior/Michigan connection that initially sets up on the east side after midnight and gradually settles towards the southern suburbs by Friday morning, and then likely dissipates as the high builds in on Friday.

2)      A Lake Huron connection that moves into NW PA late Thursday night and then gradually slides west (while slowly weakening) through the day Friday as the winds continue to come around to the N and even NNE by Friday evening.

Above is a forecast sounding for CLE when the potential Superior/Michigan connection would be developing.  There is a lot of dry air however, there is some moisture below the inversion along with very steep lapse rates.  This combined with very little shear and somewhat weaker winds could allow for a loosely organized band to develop across parts of southern Cuyahoga, extreme NE Medina, northern Summit, and perhaps southwestern Geauga/northwestern Portage Counties for a few hours later Thursday night into Friday morning, before the possible band shifts farther west/likely dissipates later Friday morning.  With the entire cloud layer in the DGZ and over 700 J/KG of lake induced CAPE in the sounding, any snow showers that develop could be heavy enough to accumulate…however, with a short fetch, dry airmass, and complete lack of any synoptic scale lift in the region, it’s hard to get excited.  Could someone sneak out a local inch of snow, and maybe a larger area see some light dustings in the higher terrain just south and southeast of Cleveland out of this?  Sure...but given the negatives and short duration I have a hard time seeing more than a local inch or so of snow panning out with this potential “band,” and even that I’m not completely confident in…it could just end up being flurries if the upstream connection isn’t strong enough to overcome the drier air.

A sounding at KERI valid when the Lake Huron band is expected to begin moving gradually southwest across NW PA is more impressive, with a deeper layer of instability and moisture and manageable levels of shear.  There is enough “juice” there for the Lake Huron band to produce moderate to heavy snow…however, the winds will still be shifting so it may not spend more than an hour or so in any given location in NW PA, with only light snow showers in the higher terrain outside of the band.  If the band slows down somewhere, a narrow corridor could see a quick 2-4” of snow, but otherwise this is looking like a quick inch or two in the higher terrain of NW PA with just a coating closer to the lake shore.  Given the potential timing Friday morning this could still interfere with the commute. 

As the winds continue to gradually shift to a more northerly direction on Friday, the Lake Huron band will continue west into northeastern Ohio.  The band will likely not spend an hour or two in any given spot, limiting potential accumulations.  Forecast soundings from within the band still support moderate snow within it into Friday afternoon, with good moisture/steep lapse rates up to about 7k feet and good lift into the DGZ, along with only weak to moderate wind shear, so some quick accumulations can’t be ruled out, but in general amounts from the Huron band in Ohio will struggle to pass an inch or two.

The hi-res models insist on getting the Huron band into the Cleveland metro by late Friday afternoon/early evening, but drier air and lower inversions will continue to work in, making it questionable how intense it is when it gets in:

Lapse rates remain steep with enough moisture below 5k feet, to go along with some instability into the DGZ and little wind shear below the inversion, so there’s probably enough juice there for light and somewhat high ratio snow…however, with the band likely continuing to move and snow rates kept on the lighter side, I have a hard time seeing more than about half an inch of new accumulation in the higher terrain in southern and eastern Cuyahoga/northern Summit/northern Medina with perhaps a light dusting closer to the lake and a bit farther west before the band completely dissipates. 

For total amounts, am generally thinking 2-3” total in the higher terrain in NW PA when combining the late Thursday evening snow showers and Huron band passage early Friday morning…a local 4” is possible if the Huron band slows down anywhere, but that’s not a given.  In general am thinking 1-2” total in the higher terrain in northern Geauga and inland Ashtabula County when combining the Thursday evening snow showers and Huron band passage…I can’t rule out a local 3” amount if the Huron band slows down anywhere, but again, not a given.  In the Cleveland I can see how someone in the hills south or southeast of town squeaks out an inch or inch and a half of total snow if both phases of the event pan out, but the lower elevations will likely see a dusting at best, and even in the higher terrain of the secondary Snowbelt it’s very possible an inch doesn’t even fall, as neither portion of the event looks like a given for that area. 

And here's my forecast:

[NEOH]

Nice to see an OHWeather snow forecast. It has been too long.

[dta1984]

Yep, feels good to be back into winter mode and see an ohweather forecast!  We're lucky to have him!  Sure is going to feel like winter the next few days.  Will be nice to see some flakes. 

[OHweather]

It's nice to be forecasting snow! Hopefully the next event is more substantial...at least we don't have an endless torch like the last two falls. 

[OHweather]

Got a dusting here overnight. Still lightly snowing and hoping the Huron band can drop a light amount, but it's moving pretty fast. 

[Jim Martin]

3 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Got a dusting here overnight. Still lightly snowing and hoping the Huron band can drop a light amount, but it's moving pretty fast. 

 

[dta1984]

Huron band swinging through.   Maybe a quick 1/2".

[NEOH]

Snowing fairly hard in South Russell. The band is on the move though. Sure feels like Winter out there.

[OHweather]

This weekend could be a nice LES event locally...too early for a lot of confidence or for details though but it's one to watch. 

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

This weekend could be a nice LES event locally...too early for a lot of confidence or for details though but it's one to watch. 

Yeah. Today's 12z GFS would be spectacular. Lock that in please.

 

 

[OHweather]

29 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Yeah. Today's 12z GFS would be spectacular. Lock that in please.

 

 

The Euro continues to be complete garbage. Minor event.  Normally the GFS is progressive and the Euro slower/amped, so this will be interesting. 

[dta1984]

Looking forward to at least a chance of accumulating snow this weekend.   

HWO from Cle.  

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A strong cold front will move through the area Saturday. Cold air
will sweep in across Lake Erie likely producing lake effect snow that
will last from late Saturday into Monday. Accumulating snow should
be expected.

[DanTheMan]

Hey all! Planning on driving up to the Cleveland area from Virginia next week, I know its a week out but are there any indications that it could be snowy around the Wednesday-Friday time frame? Need to plan my travel days. Thanks!

[NEOH]

BUF sums up the model trends pretty well... although a WNW wind is better for us than WNY.

Over the past 24 hours model guidance has become decidedly less impressive on the lake effect setup, 
with boundary layer flow more WNW, lesssynoptic scale moisture, and a faster ending on Monday. If these
 model trends continue, the potential for significant lake effect snow may be off the table. That said, 
there is plenty of time for model guidance to trend back in the other direction on these subtle
details with this event still 4 days away.

 

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, DanTheMan said:

Hey all! Planning on driving up to the Cleveland area from Virginia next week, I know its a week out but are there any indications that it could be snowy around the Wednesday-Friday time frame? Need to plan my travel days. Thanks!

Tough to say at this point... but the GFS looks cold with prospects for snow. Might have a better idea by the weekend.