Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[Trent]

I know it's way too early to think about, but I wonder if CLE will actually end up getting less snow this winter than last. So far snow cover at CLE has been abysmal: just 3 days with 3" or more on the ground and just 5 days that had 2" on the ground. 

[OHweather]

This has really been an unexpectedly bad winter, and unless we pull off a late rally I may have to rate it lower than 2011-12.  I would be very surprised to finish with less snow than last winter at CLE (and the heart of the snowbelt likely already has more than last winter or is approaching those totals), however until we actually pass last winter's snow total it's in the realm of possibility.

Got 0.3" last night.  Some very light snow pellets at the moment, but radar shows more moisture moving south across the lake, which should result in a bit of a flareup for a few hours.  Parameters look a little bit better tonight on forecast soundings, with equilibrium heights rising to 8k feet for a time and very little wind shear to go along with enough moisture.  The winds may lock in for several hours, so I suppose how I could see anyone who gets under the upper Lake Michigan/Lake Superior connection (probably eastern Cuyahoga County or western Geauga County) could see 3-4" this evening through early Thursday...everyone else (outside of NW PA where the Huron connection develops) will not see much snow tonight. 

[Trent]

Let's say CLE manages to get a 6" storm this spring, gets four 1.5" events, and then gets a handful of sub 0.5" coatings ... that's a seasonal total of about 37". That's still worse than the winter of 11/12 and would be nominally better than last year. It's going to take an epic March/April just to move this winter from disaster to "could be worse".

[OHweather]

55 minutes ago, Trent said:

Let's say CLE manages to get a 6" storm this spring, gets four 1.5" events, and then gets a handful of sub 0.5" coatings ... that's a seasonal total of about 37". That's still worse than the winter of 11/12 and would be nominally better than last year. It's going to take an epic March/April just to move this winter from disaster to "could be worse".

We'd need either a foot plus storm or two 8"+ storms to move that needle in my mind. Probably is less than likely. 

[Trent]

Decent banding with the lake effect. Might be able to squeeze out an inch of fluff that will melt in 36 hours. 

[dta1984]

3.75" overnight,  also had .5" yesterday morning.   2 day total at 4.25".  Had some real good bursts yesterday evening.   Wouldn't be surprised to see some 6" reports near Chardon.

[Trent]

I'm wondering what kind of lake breeze will kick in for the upcoming torch? Is this going to be a case where it's 65 inland and 38 by the shore?

[NEOH]

42 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

3.75" overnight,  also had .5" yesterday morning.   2 day total at 4.25".  Had some real good bursts yesterday evening.   Wouldn't be surprised to see some 6" reports near Chardon.

Measured a little less here... but the heavy bursts were just east of my hood last night. We have about 24 hours to enjoy this

[dta1984]

3 hours ago, NEOH said:

Measured a little less here... but the heavy bursts were just east of my hood last night. We have about 24 hours to enjoy this

Looking through the storm reports, Chardon only had 3.8" for a 24 Hr total.  I'm wondering if the 3.75 I measured might have included the .5 from yesterday morning.   Either way, it will be a distant memory tomorrow.    Seasonal total just over 50".  

[OHweather]

35 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Looking through the storm reports, Chardon only had 3.8" for a 24 Hr total.  I'm wondering if the 3.75 I measured might have included the .5 from yesterday morning.   Either way, it will be a distant memory tomorrow.    Seasonal total just over 50".  

There are two reports from Chardon, one from a co-op observer and 12 hourly reports from a snow spotter. The 12 hourly reports add up to 6.3" (1.0, 2.5, 2.8). The 24 hourly reports from the co-op add up to 4.8" (1.0, 3.8). The co-op is almost always lower than the snow spotter, possibly because they just stick a ruler in every 24 hours which allows for compaction.  Baindridge had close to 3" last night around 10:00 when I drove through so you having roughly 4" is plausible. 

 

After 0.3" Tuesday night I got 1.1" through 10:30pm yesterday and an additional 0.7" overnight. Unfortunately this will be the last snow for quite a while. 

[NEOH]

Amazing to see 50's and fair weather in the forecast for the next week. A fitting end to this Winter I guess. I'm sure we'll get a few snows in March but this has been a bad season at least locally. We are at about 50% of average. Areas just north of here are probably at or above their seasonal snowfall. I'd bet the Willoughby/Kirtland corridor is well above at this point.

[osubrett2]

I know living up by the lake causes pretty significant differences in weather, but it's been a pretty stark difference the past few days between Central/NE Ohio. I talked to my parents in Youngstown yesterday and they mentioned how it had been snowing for a while and they were stuck in the mid-20s. Meanwhile, we had bright, sunny, clear blue skies and temps in the low 40s. This morning, I saw a lot of places dropped down into the mid-teens (some even in the single digits), and we only bottomed out in the low-mid 30s just before sunrise.

[dta1984]

In Mentor right now and the car reads 72 degrees.   Unreal lol.  

[OHweather]

Friday could be 75 if the rain and front hold off long enough. 

[Trent]

71 at Cleveland Burke Lakefront today!

The running 12 month average temperature for Cleveland is now 0.8 degrees above the previous warmest year which is pretty amazing.

Even more impressive is that the past two year period in Cleveland is the warmest 2 year period on record. Why is that impressive? It INCLUDES the record coldest February 2015 in that calculation. Once that month falls off and is replaced by this month, the recent warmth the last two years will be off the charts.

 

[dta1984]

11 minutes ago, Trent said:

71 at Cleveland Burke Lakefront today!

The running 12 month average temperature for Cleveland is now 0.8 degrees above the previous warmest year which is pretty amazing.

Even more impressive is that the past two year period in Cleveland is the warmest 2 year period on record. Why is that impressive? It INCLUDES the record coldest February 2015 in that calculation. Once that month falls off and is replaced by this month, the recent warmth the last two years will be off the charts.

 

That's incredible!   Seems like I just saw a post from Buffaloweather saying buffalo has a similar streak.  

[OHweather]

Running out of superlatives to describe the warmth.  Another overperforming temp day today (except along the lake).  Tomorrow should be near 60 inland again, well into the 60s Tuesday, and Wednesday could hit 70.  Friday could still be well into the 70s if the front and rain hold off long enough.  I do not remember anything like this winter in terms of incredible warm stretches, although I don't remember much before roughly 03-04.  It will snow again at some point in March or April, but this is an extremely impressive torch pattern and we will probably have an extremely early green up this year.  It wouldn't surprise me if the warmth this week is enough to get some of the earlier plants to start shooting out of the ground. 

[Trent]

45 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Running out of superlatives to describe the warmth.  Another overperforming temp day today (except along the lake).  Tomorrow should be near 60 inland again, well into the 60s Tuesday, and Wednesday could hit 70.  Friday could still be well into the 70s if the front and rain hold off long enough.  I do not remember anything like this winter in terms of incredible warm stretches, although I don't remember much before roughly 03-04.  It will snow again at some point in March or April, but this is an extremely impressive torch pattern and we will probably have an extremely early green up this year.  It wouldn't surprise me if the warmth this week is enough to get some of the earlier plants to start shooting out of the ground. 

Even with the chilly lake influence under full sun, it was near 56 IMBY, a far cry from yesterday's temps flirting with 70, but still impressive by February standards. 

It's probably a lock that this February will be the warmest on record (reversing 2015) for Cleveland. We'll see how high in the ranking meteorological winter ends up being. Cleveland is currently at 11th warmest out of 145 winters. With the forecast the rest of the week, that should easily move into top 3 warmest. But this is nothing new the past year, as the positive temp departures have been relentless. 

You have to wonder when the rubber band will snap back? A cruel punishment would be a very cold late April-June period that keeps us in the 40-50s.

CLE still racking up snowfall deficits by the day. They'll need more than 15" to crack the 40" mark and there's nothing on the horizon. 

 

[dta1984]

This weekend was very reminiscent of a late March or early April weekend.  Motorcycles,  convertibles,  bicycles, runners all out.  If only there had been a little rain to wash the salt off the roads.  

[NEOH]

Yeah... what a weekend weather wise. Noticed that the daffodils started poking through the soil already. Hard to believe we will have warm weather for another 5 days or so.

[Trent]

The 6z GFS has a fantasy snowstorm on the 28th. I think this might be the first significant snow storm to pop up in the 7-10 day time frame all season! 

[OHweather]

CLE hit 67 today despite a pretty solid overcast all day.  The all time February record of 74 is definitely in danger on Friday and if we have sun could be broken by a few degrees.

[Trent]

I'm wondering if this February can score an average temp of 40? Plugging in projected temperatures the rest of the month gives an average temp of 40.4. For comparison, the previous record warmest February was 37.5 degrees in both 1998 and 1930. By further comparison, March 2012 beat out the previous monthly record by 1.9 degrees.

It's still too early to call as midnight lows/highs/clouds can end up playing a significant role in the final temperature, nonetheless the potential is there for a monthly record to be broken by 3 degrees which would be the largest margin of any month.

[Trent]

This is now the 2nd warmest meteorological winter on record for Cleveland. We'll see where it finishes the next few days, but who would have thought back in November with all the winter outlooks that winter would have wound up this warm?!

[dta1984]

72 out right now.  The length and intensity of the warm spells this winter have been incredible.   

Looking more and more likely I'll finish this year with less snow than last year. Who would have guessed that ?  Only the northern portion of the snowbelt has been anywhere close to average. 

[OHweather]

As of 1pm CLE has tied their all time February record and CAK has broken theirs. Talk about shattering records. 

[Trent]

12 minutes ago, OHweather said:

As of 1pm CLE has tied their all time February record and CAK has broken theirs. Talk about shattering records. 

The all time warmest temperature in meteorological winter for Cleveland is 77 set on December 3, 1982. Today's 74 degrees ties for second warmest temperature recorded during met winter. 77 is probably out of reach, but I think 75 is doable.

February 2017 is certainly rewriting the record books for warmth in Cleveland. We'll probably break the previous warmest Feb by over 3 degrees. No other month of the year has ever been that stand out. 

[OHweather]

11 minutes ago, Trent said:

The all time warmest temperature in meteorological winter for Cleveland is 77 set on December 3, 1982. Today's 74 degrees ties for second warmest temperature recorded during met winter. 77 is probably out of reach, but I think 75 is doable.

February 2017 is certainly rewriting the record books for warmth in Cleveland. We'll probably break the previous warmest Feb by over 3 degrees. No other month of the year has ever been that stand out. 

This next hourly report will give us a hint at the high that we normally hit between 3 and 4 this time of year. Based on the 74 at 1pm I don't think 77 is out of reach, but we'll need to be 75 or 76 at 2pm to have a shot at it. 

[Trent]

75 at CLE and 76 at BKL for the 2pm observations.

These are unthinkable temperatures for Cleveland in February!

No doubt that 76 is the warmest temp ever recorded downtown during Meteorological winter in Cleveland. 

[Trent]

3 hours ago, OHweather said:

This next hourly report will give us a hint at the high that we normally hit between 3 and 4 this time of year. Based on the 74 at 1pm I don't think 77 is out of reach, but we'll need to be 75 or 76 at 2pm to have a shot at it. 

77 was officially reached. What a day! 

If it's going to be 35, overcast, and snowless for days, what's the point? We might as well have these types of days.

I still think we're due for at least a widespread 3-5" snowstorm sometime in March. Maybe we can still salvage a decent lake enhancement event too, especially with how warm Lake Erie is for this time of year.