OHweather Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Any possibility the bands quit moving around so much, or are the winds shifting too much? There's a clipper for tomorrow night also isn't there? The winds and hence any bands might stabilize for a few hours this afternoon. Where the bands stabilize, if the do, I guess there could be a couple of inches more today. The clipper will bring snow, maybe an inch, with more LES for Lake and Ashtabula into NW PA. So I guess on the bright side we won't be melting all of this snow anytime soon and should have a half decent snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Nice view of the band that pushed through earlier... it definitely had a connection to lake MI. Winds are coming around more northerly and the connection is backing to the west. Lots of dry air out there with clear skies in the northern side of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Have we ever had a Huron connection from due north that set up on the east side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Have we ever had a Huron connection from due north that set up on the east side? It's very rare, but happens on occasion. My poorly drawn arrow was pointing at the band originating from lake michigan. That huron band won't be moving too far past the OH state line. Seems to wiggling eastward actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It's very rare, but happens on occasion. My poorly drawn arrow was pointing at the band originating from lake michigan. That huron band won't be moving too far past the OH state line. Seems to wiggling eastward actually. Ya I figured it was rare. Was just noticing how intense those huron bands seem to look. Ah yes, I see it now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It's very rare, but happens on occasion. My poorly drawn arrow was pointing at the band originating from lake michigan. That huron band won't be moving too far past the OH state line. Seems to wiggling eastward actually. Yeah, it is pretty rare. However, during the snowy 2000s, we had a lot of Huron Connection (HC)events. I remember one big one in early Dec. 2005 when Chardon got over 20" from the event. HC started in the early AM and lasted into the evening. I think the last decent one was in early Dec. of 2010 (really been awhile). Chardon had about a foot and a half from that one. Usually we have a significant HC(>10") at least once a winter, but since 2011-2012, we haven't had any decent HCs. Actually, every winter from 11-12 up to the present has been dull in terms of good snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Interesting how the main snow band seems to be setting up in the Akron-Canton area. Talk about reverse lake effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Yeah, definitely looks like some Lake Michigan moisture enhancing things west and south of town like we were a bit worried about yesterday. Hopefully that Huron band can dump on Maidesnow in NW PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Yeah, definitely looks like some Lake Michigan moisture enhancing things west and south of town like we were a bit worried about yesterday. Hopefully that Huron band can dump on Maidesnow in NW PA That/those band(s) will eventually swing back up towards the CLE Metro. Questions are...will the air be so dry that these bands will dry out and the snow showers will be more widely scattered? When the bands or the area of LES does swing back north, will it be another quick hitter minimizing accumulations? Just how much will the reduced open water coverage on L. Erie affect cell/band development? This event has definitely under-performed thus far. Good news is that the GFS, GFS Para and the GEM are bullish on the clipper coming through tomorrow night & Friday. Models indicate several inches possible in the snowbelt. We'll see what the Euro says in the next hour. On edit...ECMWF shows potentially 2"-6" accumulations (with the high snow ratios) across the primary snowbelt. Suggests a couple of inches for the rest of CLE metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 CLE has waved the white towel on this event understandably. I'd say on to the next but I think this was the last shot at a significant LES event. Ice cover will really increase the next couple of days which will put a cap on the moisture. You can see slush forming on the crib webcam. Maybe we'll see another inch or two as the weak bands swing back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Getting hit well via checking local webcam and local radar. Very narrow band, so most of Erie County is snow free. Sun showing where I'm at now I-90 at Peach St/ Rt 19 exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 CLE has waved the white towel on this event understandably. I'd say on to the next but I think this was the last shot at a significant LES event. Ice cover will really increase the next couple of days which will put a cap on the moisture. You can see slush forming on the crib webcam. Maybe we'll see another inch or two as the weak bands swing back north. ...I figured they would. With the cold we have now, the second shot of cold (guidance suggests sub-zero lows on Sat with temperatures climbing little during the day) the ice coverage will really increase. Our hope for good LES is either a good Huron Connection or some warm windy storm cutting west (during the so-called thaw the models are suggesting to happen in the 11-15 timeframe) to break up some of the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Getting hit well via checking local webcam and local radar. Very narrow band, so most of Erie County is snow free. Sun showing where I'm at now I-90 at Peach St/ Rt 19 exit. What a dud of an event. Air is just too dry...that's the problem with these really cold air masses as they come with really dry air that all but wipes out the LES. It's better to have a moderately cold air mass as more moisture is available for the LES bands to develop...an unfrozen lake also helps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 What a dud of an event. Air is just too dry...that's the problem with these really cold air masses as they come with really dry air that all but wipes out the LES. It's better to have a moderately cold air mass as more moisture is available for the LES bands to develop...an unfrozen lake also helps too. Bingo. Totally agree with that. It's too bad this airmass was so dry because it's freezing the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Bingo. Totally agree with that. It's too bad this airmass was so dry because it's freezing the lake. Like last year when the Legendary Polar Vortex (per media hype) with its subzero cold was accompanied by very little LES. Even lake effect cloudiness was limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Like last year when the Legendary Polar Vortex (per media hype) with its subzero cold was accompanied by very little LES. Even lake effect cloudiness was limited.Lake effect snow should never have been expected with the polar vortex in Ohio last year, the wind was SW at all levels of the atmosphere and the central and western basins were essentially frozen, so why CLE and local news stations proclaimed a lake effect blizzard with that is still beyond me. Buffalo got a nice event out of it but strong convergence on that end of the lake can help maximize things when other parameters are marginal...more so than in NE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Wife said only 4" since this morning. Little surprised given the webcam at university, but said flakes have been small. She took pictures, will post later. Band has gotten more narrow and drifted just to the west of MBY. Do you guys think they should be able to target specific areas of counties with LES Warnings (rather than county-wide) like they do with Tstorms/Tornado/spec weather statements given the highly localized nature of these snows? Or is that not viable option given transient nature and length of duration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Wife said only 4" since this morning. Little surprised given the webcam at university, but said flakes have been small. She took pictures, will post later. Band has gotten more narrow and drifted just to the west of MBY. Do you guys think they should be able to target specific areas of counties with LES Warnings (rather than county-wide) like they do with Tstorms/Tornado/spec weather statements given the highly localized nature of these snows? Or is that not viable option given transient nature and length of duration? If the NWS can issue polygon warnings for specific areas for thunderstorms, tornados, and floods, there's no reason not to do it with winter storms and lake effect. I think it would help leaps and bounds for Northeast Ohio and NW PA to be able to have this level of warning compared to the "summer" type events. Particularly in population dense areas of Cleveland it would be nice if the NWS could just add a polygon that included the fringe areas as needed instead of warning a million plus people and setting off a media frenzy. The back side to this is that it puts way more pressure on accuracy. It's not always easy to tell where a band will set up, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The back side to this is that it puts way more pressure on accuracy. It's not always easy to tell where a band will set up, Yes, with thunderstorms and tornadoes, the NWS sends out the polygon warnings for localized areas but these warnings are short lead time warnings and are of short duration. Also, severe thunderstorm/tornado warnings are for weather entities that already exist. Localizing LES warnings, with current forecasting methods and technology, would be difficult as what you said about it not being easy to tell where a band will set up (The entity does not yet exist.). Also, LES bands are fickle as they can hang around for hours and dump snow or they can be in and out in less than an hour as they were this morning. Bands/cells can pop up and dissipate within minutes so it can be like nailing jello to the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'd say that I'm not really surprised at today's bust. The wind today was so relentless that it looks like there's actually less snow on the ground than yesterday, before the inch of fluff fell overnight. While not gospel, the hi-res models are pretty good indicators. If none of them are showing any major accumulations, then one shouldn't expect a broad brush of 4-8" and 6-10" that was forecasted. I think the signs had started developing 36 hours prior that this wasn't going to be a big event, but after a week of things looking good, it's hard to back down from that kind of forecast. Perhaps, had last night's band been slower, sitting over areas for 2-3 hours, instead of 20-30 minutes, then accumulations might have just barely hit the low end of the forecast. The best snow producers for CLE are the old fashioned enhancement events, where wave after wave of snow rotates in off Erie. I think the last classic event was back at the end of February 2010. As for this season, I think our best of winter already peaked in mid November. It will probably be hard to top that week for the second half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Funny to see all of the schools closed for tomorrow due to the cold. Sure it will be pretty cold, but not nearly as bad as last year. Hopefully the kids can have some actual "snow" days this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Funny we may get more snow from the upcoming clipper than the les event. Unless there's still les taint in the Nam maps, looks like possibly 4" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'd say that I'm not really surprised at today's bust. The wind today was so relentless that it looks like there's actually less snow on the ground than yesterday, before the inch of fluff fell overnight. While not gospel, the hi-res models are pretty good indicators. If none of them are showing any major accumulations, then one shouldn't expect a broad brush of 4-8" and 6-10" that was forecasted. I think the signs had started developing 36 hours prior that this wasn't going to be a big event, but after a week of things looking good, it's hard to back down from that kind of forecast. Perhaps, had last night's band been slower, sitting over areas for 2-3 hours, instead of 20-30 minutes, then accumulations might have just barely hit the low end of the forecast. The best snow producers for CLE are the old fashioned enhancement events, where wave after wave of snow rotates in off Erie. I think the last classic event was back at the end of February 2010. As for this season, I think our best of winter already peaked in mid November. It will probably be hard to top that week for the second half of winter. The bust wasn't shocking IMO, but it still doesn't make it nicer. I was pretty confident in the event coming to a halt pretty quickly when the winds went NW, but over-estimated the morning band by a fair bit so I was still decently too high for most places. Very cold but dry NW flow events bust often, but W-E bands ahead of a surface wind shift often do better. It may be a combination of the ice that formed and the sharp wind shift causing the band to move quickly once it developed that caused that portion of the event to do relatively pourly too. Really, nothing good happened with this event. It snowed half decently out here this evening, but the flake size was very small so we maybe got half an inch, pushing the storm total up to about 2". In general, I agree with your assessment of the hi-res models. My one big issue with them is no models will consistently pick up on W-E bands that can dump heavy snow on Cleveland or parts of Cuyahoga County...sometimes they'll see it, sometimes they won't. So that's tricky, although with a more "straight forward" NW flow setup they'll usually give you a better idea. We had two really good enhancement events in the 2009-2010 winter...one at the start of January that droped over 3 feet of snow on Solon over a few days, which started as a more traditional WNW flow lake effect event but had Atlantic moisture wrap in around a stalled storm to our east...and the one at the end of February you mentioned. It would be nice to see one of those again this decade. The clipper looks better for Thursday night...decent model agreement on 0.1 to 0.25" of QPF, and BUFKIT profiles for the NAM show the strongest lift in the DGZ for a time, so ratios could be pretty high. 2-4" seems possible. Lake effect could be decent in northern Ashtabula County into NW PA and SW NY Friday-Saturday, but doesn't really look to affect the Cleveland metro. After another potential near 0 or sub-zero night Friday night, we'd need a decent warm up with lots of rain and wind to see decent lake effect the rest of the winter, unless we get a freak April event or something after the lake thaws...so it's disapointing to see the LES season come to an end like this. There's still a ton of time for synoptic snows, even if the models look iffy at best for the next week or two in that department. I was optimistic for CLE coming in above average in the snow department heading into the winter, but they'll likely be running a modest deficit still or perhaps be near normal after the dust settles by the weekend. If we see very little over the next 10-14 days that will turn into a decent deficit, and we'd need synoptic snows to get out of that hole unless we magically get a torch to thaw the lake, so it'll be tough at this point. Although still plenty of oppertunity for "fun" left, as it is just early January right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Had just under an inch of new snow from yesterday evening to this morning. Looks like Cle is combining the clipper and a little lake effect into a lake effect advisory for 4-8". I'd be thrilled with the bottom total lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Had just under an inch of new snow from yesterday evening to this morning. Looks like Cle is combining the clipper and a little lake effect into a lake effect advisory for 4-8". I'd be thrilled with the bottom total lol. Same total here. Not sure why CLE is so bullish on LE. Looks like 2-4" from the clipper... but I wouldn't count on much, if any LES. Winds don't come around WNW'erly behind the clipper... although the GFS is close for short time before shifting to the WSW. Would be nice to notch a 4" event considering yesterday's bust. Next weeks overrunning potential looks good as well. Should stay all snow in Northern Ohio. Nice to have a couple of things to look forward to after yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Anyone know how CLE's snowfall map is generated? Another over done map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Any know how CLE's snowfall map is generated? Another over done map. I'm pretty sure those maps come straight from their grids added up, but not 100% sure. There may be a little bit of human input on the map itself (obviously their grids have human input). I didn't want to post that map this morning because I really don't agree with it. It's a good LES setup for SW NY south of Buffalo and that could come into Ashtabula and Erie at times, maybe Lake County can get grazed and get a couple inches of LES on top of the clipper. But with a mainly WSW flow and ice cover expanding on the lake I'm not very optimisitc for NE Ohio on this one. The clipper tonight could cause a mess due to temps only in the 10-15 degree range, more high ratio snows and gusty winds...with wind chills probably falling below -10F again tomorrow at some point. A lot of kids may get another day off tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm pretty sure those maps come straight from their grids added up, but not 100% sure. There may be a little bit of human input on the map itself (obviously their grids have human input). I didn't want to post that map this morning because I really don't agree with it. It's a good LES setup for SW NY south of Buffalo and that could come into Ashtabula and Erie at times, maybe Lake County can get grazed and get a couple inches of LES on top of the clipper. But with a mainly WSW flow and ice cover expanding on the lake I'm not very optimisitc for NE Ohio on this one. The clipper tonight could cause a mess due to temps only in the 10-15 degree range, more high ratio snows and gusty winds...with wind chills probably falling below -10F again tomorrow at some point. A lot of kids may get another day off tomorrow. Thanks. By the look of the map, you would think the lake is ice free with a WNW fecth. The flow will be WSW as you mentioned, around 260. At least we have the clipper snows... 2-3" seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Picked up 3.7" last night... that was the best measurement I could come up with. Beat my expectations. Last band is pushing through now. Nice flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Sounds right. Yep very difficult to measure. Maybe this last band will push us to 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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