OHweather Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 We warm back up again next week so we should still have an open western basin the next time it gets cold. This winter has been a great example of cold/dry and warm/wet so far. We had a fairly close to average December in the temps/precip department but the snow just didn't work out outside of the LES jackpot areas. Still a ton of time left for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nam 4k and 3k get .2 - .3 qpf down this way. Grasping at straws, but maybe a few inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 hours ago, dta1984 said: Nam 4k and 3k get .2 - .3 qpf down this way. Grasping at straws, but maybe a few inches? Best shot will be Thursday night into Friday when the winds try to gain a bit of a northerly component...it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Surprised no advisories for Lake or Ashtabula. Radar looks great up there. Water levels have to be extremely low out west... Pretty much a perfect fetch for draining the shallow waters. The nam shows a decent amount of precip up near the lake/Geauga border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Someone in Lake or Ashtabula could sneak in 4"...the snow isn't that organized but the heavier bursts keep training over the same areas so it may add up some. Pretty favorable conditions for a band to develop late tomorrow night into Friday with a light W wind and moderate instability...NAM and GFS have a W to WNW flow for several hours before backing later Friday morning, Euro doesn't ever develop a northerly component. I think there will be warning amounts tomorrow night into Friday but it'll be interesting to see if that band can get into northern Cuyahoga or Geauga before it shifts north. Wind direction will be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Rip city at the moment, 2" per our I think. We are already close 6" for the event, with the vast majority falling from about 5pm ish till now (definitely Warning worthy out there, pretty nasty). We are already at the low end of the forecasted Advisory amount for this event - will be interested to see what out total will be come Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said: Rip city at the moment, 2" per our I think. We are already close 6" for the event, with the vast majority falling from about 5pm ish till now (definitely Warning worthy out there, pretty nasty). We are already at the low end of the forecasted Advisory amount for this event - will be interested to see what out total will be come Saturday morning. They probably need a warning for Erie County...you can tell on radar and satellite that things organize as you head through eastern Ashtabula Co into NW PA...pretty typical for a strong due W to WSW flow. Things will shift out over the lake during the day Thursday, but Thursday night through Saturday AM will be interesting at times. The best banding may be in NE OH Thursday night into Friday morning, but Erie County should get some more chances Friday and Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9" even as of midnight. Heaviest snow of the night as I came in from measuring. Off to bed, hopefully some serious shoveling early tomorrow morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I don't have time to put together a write up, but here are some quick thoughts for Thursday evening-Saturday morning. This map only includes snow from 7pm Thursday on and does not include anything falling before then, including the LES or light clipper snow. A established and heavy band of snow should push off the lake mid to late Thursday evening into the primary snowbelt in NE OH and NW PA as a surface trough/wind shift pushes south. Thinking is we get a WNW flow Thursday night behind the clipper which initially sets a band up in northern/eastern Cuyahoga into central Geauga before the winds go W to WSW Friday morning and push things into Lake/maybe extreme northern Geauga. We get another little shortwave Friday evening that may push things back south a bit (after perhaps a break for most everyone briefly Friday afternoon) and re-intensify the band for a time, before things end by early Saturday. Snow showers may linger a few hours longer in NW PA on Saturday until the winds go due SW by noon. Instability is moderate and moisture is OK but not great. There could be some Lake MI help. Winds look light, generally 15MPH or less, which favors better banding and keeps the heaviest closer to the lake. Ratios will be high so accumulations could be quick. Banding moves some but may lock in for several hours Friday morning into the afternoon on a flow that generally favors Lake County. With some accumulating snow lingering through Friday night this turns into a fairly long duration event, and I'd be shocked if favored areas didn't see over 6". Parameters don't support super heavy 2-4" per hour rates, but any band could easily produce an inch an hour through Friday afternoon before conditions diminish further Friday evening into Friday night. Right now I favor NE OH for a little more snow than NW PA for this leg of the event because of the surface trough pushing south into extreme NE OH and trying to focus the heaviest snow there. The W flow favors better shoreline convergence in NE OH as well. Tough call for Cuyahoga. Flow doesn't really have any northerly component by 7AM Friday on the models and is light, so any snow by that point would affect Euclid at most and that's about it. With a light WNW flow Thursday night into very early Friday, convergence may sit over northern Cuyahoga and could drop accumulating snow even as far west as the western lakeshore before it shifts north Friday morning...amounts could be higher near the lake farther west, but I'm not extremely confident in that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2.3" since midnight, band drifted north a couple hours ago. 11.3" so far, quite fluffy. With compacting, 8" or so on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like another solid LES event for those from Rt.6 on northeast. NAM and WRF both have a lot of precip falling in that area. The slight shift north with the precip takes us out of the game completely around here... although we were never really in it. The consolation prize is that the bare ground will freeze so I won't have to deal with a muddy yard until the next warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, NEOH said: Looks like another solid LES event for those from Rt.6 on northeast. NAM and WRF both have a lot of precip falling in that area. The slight shift north with the precip takes us out of the game completely around here... although we were never really in it. The consolation prize is that the bare ground will freeze so I won't have to deal with a muddy yard until the next warm up. There's still .2 or so qpf shown here. Maybe that's not from les and more from the southern system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Between the snow today and the little burst of les tonight with the wind shift you guys should get like 2"...but yeah the best will again be farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, OHweather said: Between the snow today and the little burst of les tonight with the wind shift you guys should get like 2"...but yeah the best will again be farther north. Haha it's been that kind of winter.......I'll take it . Ground is whitening up, steady light snow. Actually moderate snow with big flakes in Solon . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, OHweather said: Between the snow today and the little burst of les tonight with the wind shift you guys should get like 2"...but yeah the best will again be farther north. About an inch of fluff has come down... just had a nice burst of snow. Huge flakes under the heavier returns on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 38 minutes ago, NEOH said: About an inch of fluff has come down... just had a nice burst of snow. Huge flakes under the heavier returns on radar. These little bursts don't last long but they're certainly nice. I've gotten so used to SE Ohio that a 50" winter would knock my socks off at this point but a good spread the wealth event or storm would be nice at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 58 minutes ago, OHweather said: These little bursts don't last long but they're certainly nice. I've gotten so used to SE Ohio that a 50" winter would knock my socks off at this point but a good spread the wealth event or storm would be nice at some point Forgot that this is your first winter back up "north". If this pattern keeps up you may have to wait for a 50" winter We'll get our synoptic system one of these days... its just a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 35 minutes ago, NEOH said: Forgot that this is your first winter back up "north". If this pattern keeps up you may have to wait for a 50" winter We'll get our synoptic system one of these days... its just a matter of time. Today will put me over 20" so I still like my chances. Average out my way is probably 70-75", which will be tough. 50" not as hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, OHweather said: Today will put me over 20" so I still like my chances. Average out my way is probably 70-75", which will be tough. 50" not as hard. We average around 90"-100" in this area... which doesn't seem feasible at this point. But who knows, maybe February and March will be rockin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, NEOH said: We average around 90"-100" in this area... which doesn't seem feasible at this point. But who knows, maybe February and March will be rockin. We are due for a rockin March. 2" here, still snowing. The bands off shore look good, someone will do well tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Coming up on two inches here as well. All things considered not a bad total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Picked up an inch here. Nice to see it look like winter again to match the cold temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Lake county should get hit hard tonight. The winds are so light there should be nice convergence near the lake shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Lol, the models are now bringing another surface trough through Saturday morning and turning the winds WNW instead of letting a high build in. I can't imagine the snow being extremely intense by then, but maybe it sneaks far enough SW for Trent to pick up a couple of inches. Us inland folk may never do great with such light winds. Arctic front moves through Saturday night probably with another burst of snow that could be a couple or few inches. It'll all add up a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 hours ago, OHweather said: Lol, the models are now bringing another surface trough through Saturday morning and turning the winds WNW instead of letting a high build in. I can't imagine the snow being extremely intense by then, but maybe it sneaks far enough SW for Trent to pick up a couple of inches. Us inland folk may never do great with such light winds. Arctic front moves through Saturday night probably with another burst of snow that could be a couple or few inches. It'll all add up a little bit. So is that a situation of a decent flow for us, but not enough inland penetration? Wonder how lake county did last night? That band hung out in that area for most of the night, but don't think it was that intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 31 minutes ago, dta1984 said: So is that a situation of a decent flow for us, but not enough inland penetration? Wonder how lake county did last night? That band hung out in that area for most of the night, but don't think it was that intense. The flow is too weak for locations well inland yes. 3SW Willoughby had 7" as of 5am and Euclid got 4" between 7pm and 11pm...so that narrow corridor did well. Everywhere else the band moved a bit too much and kept amounts to 2-3" it looks like. Parts of Erie County in NW PA saw upwards of a foot overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 hours ago, OHweather said: The flow is too weak for locations well inland yes. 3SW Willoughby had 7" as of 5am and Euclid got 4" between 7pm and 11pm...so that narrow corridor did well. Everywhere else the band moved a bit too much and kept amounts to 2-3" it looks like. Parts of Erie County in NW PA saw upwards of a foot overnight. Isn't that amazing... the flow will finally become favorable but we will lack the wind strength to push the band inland. High res models are showing a good amount of snow near the lakeshore. Took a peak at the visible satellite and there is a lot of ice out west. I'd imagine with temps near 0 tonight the western basin will be closed off. For laughs... take a look at the long range GFS. The overrunning event it depicts for next weekend would be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, NEOH said: Isn't that amazing... the flow will finally become favorable but we will lack the wind strength to push the band inland. High res models are showing a good amount of snow near the lakeshore. Took a peak at the visible satellite and there is a lot of ice out west. I'd imagine with temps near 0 tonight the western basin will be closed off. For laughs... take a look at the long range GFS. The overrunning event it depicts for next weekend would be crazy. Next weekend could be interesting, but it's still 8 days out. Can't ignore a 1050mb high just to our north if you can throw a lot of moisture up our way. I'm more worried about not getting the moisture far enough north than not being cold enough at this point, so it'll probably just rain There's still enough heat flux through thinner ice that with some above freezing temps/rain/wind this week that we'll still probably get some juice from the western basin when it gets cold again...but yeah, for some spots this has been a very frustrating LES season. Some areas have done very well, but some big "losers" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 No need for a Warning for inland Erie County because it was clear last night, and sunny today inland. But...the lakeshore should have a Warning, not an Advisory, due to a HEAVY snowband north of 90 for almost the entire shoreline of the county for a good chunk of last night and all day today. It is ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow said: No need for a Warning for inland Erie County because it was clear last night, and sunny today inland. But...the lakeshore should have a Warning, not an Advisory, due to a HEAVY snowband north of 90 for almost the entire shoreline of the county for a good chunk of last night and all day today. It is ripping. No radar coverage certainly doesn't help you. Should be impressive totals near the shoreline though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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