Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[OHweather]

36 minutes ago, Trent said:

Things seem to be trending more favorably for tomorrow's event. It would be nice to get the ground covered again. 

Hi resolution satellite imagery this morning shows the western basin mostly cleared out with some slushy ice near the Canada side. 

I think the hi res models may be underdoing amounts on the western end of things, because the temperature fields on them clearly show colder temps over western Lake Erie than over the adjacent land. That is wrong and can only be a good thing for us. 

 

The hi-res models are trending beefier tonight. Maybe we can sneak in a couple inches of paste. 

[OHweather]

Here's my map:

Discussion:

A fairly deep upper level trough will take on a negative tilt over the eastern Great Lakes and New England Thursday night into Friday, allowing a low pressure to bomb out over eastern New England.  This whole process will allow cool air to move across the Great Lakes, and keep a rather deep and moist cyclonic flow going over the Great Lakes through Friday.  Although the airmass won’t be extremely cold and the lakes aren’t running as warm as previous lake effect events, the abundant moisture should allow some decent snowfall to occur downwind of the Great Lakes to end the week.

A little vort max may graze extreme NE OH mid Thursday afternoon…lake to 850mb temp differentials of only 11-12C and instability/moisture extending to only 4-5k feet will limit how much snow can get going Thursday afternoon.  I could see a few flurries in the primary Snowbelt Thursday afternoon, but not much more.

Pictured above is a first vort max starting to rotate into northern Ohio Thursday evening, adding better large scale ascent.  In addition, moisture depth will increase to over 10k feet quickly Thursday evening with the arrival of this vort max while instability also increases and deepens.  Forecast soundings show this improved thermodynamic environment quickly developing by mid Thursday evening over Lake Erie:

Note that the instability, while not extreme, extends to around 10k feet, with plenty of moisture past 10k feet as well.  There is upward motion (the white line) extending through all of the dendritic growth zone on the soundings Thursday evening, so once temperatures fall a couple of degrees below freezing snow to liquid ratios should improve.  The flow on this sounding is a bit strong in the lowest 10k feet, with a deep layer of 30-40 knot winds, and there is a bit of shear.  This will likely prohibit a strong single band from forming; however, large scale lift from the vort max, some moisture from southern Lake Michigan, a deep layer of moisture and instability and an OK flow for upslope to start developing should allow moderate to locally heavy snow to quickly develop Thursday evening as the first vort max moves in and allows conditions to become more favorable for snow. 

The low level flow will be in the 270-280 degree neighborhood Thursday evening, which does favor the bulk of the Lake Erie moisture affecting northern Geauga County east, and this is where the heaviest snow will likely take place Thursday evening…particularly in NW PA where there’s a longer fetch over warmer waters and more terrain to really enhance the orographic lift.  With that said, the low level flow will still carry Lake Michigan moisture into the west side and Cleveland metro Thursday evening, so this combined with the abundant synoptic moisture and some lift will likely allow snow showers to develop over the secondary Snowbelt Thursday evening as well…it may not be quite as heavy due to less help from Lake Erie, but this isn’t a pure lake effect situation where you’re often dry outside of the main bands.  The cold air advection regime allows a deep layer of conditionally unstable lapse rates to develop, which when combined with abundant moisture from the trough itself and Lake Michigan will allow half decent snow to develop south of the best Lake Erie enhancement…particularly in the higher terrain where upslope will occur.

Although the flow doesn’t quite bring Lake Michigan moisture down into the central highlands Thursday evening, the ambient low level moisture combined with a deep layer of conditionally unstable lapse rates is still expected to develop…this, combined with modest upward motion with the vort max and upslope should allow light to moderate snow to develop over the central highlands Thursday evening as well.  The surface winds don’t quite hit the axis of the highest terrain at 90 degrees, but it should still be enough to get snow going.  The best upward motion here is located below the DGZ on this sounding, but the steep lapse rates and moisture do extend through the DGZ, so the weak convective processes could occur through the DGZ and allow for fairly high ratios in any upslope in the central highlands by mid to late Thursday evening.

The snow may abate a little bit for a brief time between 1am and 4am Friday as we get a weak period of sinking air behind the first vort max.  Lake effect conditions continue to slowly improve so that may offset the weak larger scale descent…I doubt the snow stops but it may briefly lessen in intensity.  This potential lull will be short lived as a more potent vort max approaches and provides for another period of some large scale ascent between 4am and 10am Friday.

Lake effect parameters remain largely decent as this second vort max drops in, with instability and moisture still extending to over 10k feet.  The wind speed and shear are still a bit strong which will likely prohibit a very intense band from forming, however the synoptic moisture/lift and decent enhancement from the lake will still likely result in moderate to heavy snow, particularly in the higher terrain.  The winds do gain a more NWrly component early Friday morning as a surface trough pushes through, which will likely allow the “heaviest” snow to expand into Cuyahoga County and likely parts of the surrounding secondary Snowbelt as well, as the best Lake Erie enhancement shifts south.

There may not be a sharp surface trough early Friday with the wind shift, and instead a more gradual shift.  There may be a brief increase in convergence as the winds shift, but I doubt a big band will develop and swing south.  Regardless, the favorable conditions for enhancement and upslope suggest good snows will continue into Friday morning, especially in the higher terrain of the primary and secondary Snowbelt.

With the winds gaining a more northerly component early Friday morning, the connection should shift south of the lakeshore and Cleveland metro and hit the central highlands.  Because this is occurring during a period of enhanced large scale ascent from the vort max, and because there’s not only a Lake Michigan connection but also the low level winds hitting the axis of the higher terrain at nearly a 90 degree angle, there’s definitely a risk for some pretty good snows for a few hours in the central highlands Friday morning. 

Forecast soundings from MFD for early Friday still show moisture and CAPE through the entire DGZ, with the flow hitting the terrain at nearly a right angle.  When factoring in the modest lift with the vort max and a likely Lake Michigan fetch, the conditions do appear ripe for another decent period of snows in the central highlands wherever the Michigan fetch sets up Friday morning.  Decent snow showers could continue well east across the rough terrain south of route 30 and produce up to an inch or two in spots, making for a rough Friday morning commute in locations well outside of the normal Snowbelt.

Synoptic lift goes away and moisture depth decreases Friday afternoon as the trough pushes east.  Lake effect conditions remain OK downwind of Lake Erie, so with a WNW wind some snow showers will likely continue across the Cleveland metro and primary Snowbelt…but nothing extreme.  Winds turn W and then SW Friday night, but with inversion heights crashing I highly doubt there’s much if any attempt at activity re-organizing on the west flow Friday evening.

A note about the hi-res models…there is no ice cover over western Lake Erie except for near the Canadian shoreline, and even there it’s slushy.  The hi-res models show a little bit of clearing and radiational cooling over the ice Thursday night into Friday morning.  Satellite imagery showed that there isn’t ice here (and even so there is still some moisture and heat flux through ice), so these models likely are erroneously light on snow amounts from Cuyahoga County southwest into Lorain and Medina Counties due to incorrectly shaving like 60 miles off the fetch and then making that air colder than the air over the surrounding land.

As for amounts…the heaviest will likely be in the higher terrain.  Because of a longer fetch and longer duration of flow off of Lake Erie, the primary Snowbelt higher terrain should see more snow than the secondary Snowbelt.  NW PA should see more than the NE OH Snowbelt due to a longer fetch and even higher terrain yet.  Given the duration of heavier snow in NW PA (a good 18 hours), I still expect max amounts to exceed a foot there in the higher terrain.  In Geauga and Ashtabula Counties (particularly the higher elevations in northern Geauga County), I figure max potential amounts are probably in the 10-12” range…with widespread amounts of over half a foot given the duration of decent snows and what should be 15:1 ratios or so.  The fetch off of Lake Erie doesn’t quite go into the higher terrain in eastern Cuyahoga initially and takes a bit longer yet to hit the higher terrain in the secondary Snowbelt, and the fetch for these areas is over waters that are a few degrees colder, so rates may take longer to get moderate to heavy and probably won’t max out quite as heavy as farther east.  Even still, a good 12 hour or so period of decent snows could yield max amounts of 6 to 7” or so in the secondary Snowbelt, with widespread amounts of at least 4”.  Given some upslope starting Thursday evening and a likely Lake Michigan connection late Thursday night into Friday morning for at least a few hours, I do think the higher terrain all the way down to Mansfield and maybe even into northern Morrow County could see a few inches in spots.  I painted in 2-4” here for now, although there could be locally a bit more if the Lake Michigan connection sets up over a certain area and doesn’t move a ton.  With continually shifting winds, the latter scenario doesn’t seem particularly likely. 

With a WNW flow for a while late Thursday night into Friday morning, we’ll have to watch for a shore parallel band developing and moving into the secondary Snowbelt in Lorain, Medina, and Summit Counties.  Winds are still a little on the strong side with a bit of shear during this timeframe, and as I mentioned I doubt a big band swings into these counties from the north as the winds shift, so I’m leaning against this scenario…but if it did occur, local amounts may exceed my 6-7” max in the higher terrain of these counties. The lakeshore is tough, especially from Lake County on west. I went 1-2” for these areas.  With the expected lack of big bands, I think you’ll need some terrain to get decent snows.  With that said, sometimes WNW flow lake enhanced events feature frictional convergence over Lorain and Cuyahoga Counties that can intensify snow in these areas, so I’m not entirely sold that some of the lower elevations in the northern portions of those counties can’t get 3” or so…but the highest amounts will certainly be confined to the higher terrain farther south and east.  With that last bit said, I did put most of Cuyahoga into at least 2-4” outside of the immediate lakeshore.

[NEOH]

Picked up just a half inch of slop last night. Temps just weren't cold enough. Hopefully the LES delivers tonight/tomorrow.

[OHweather]

Not in agreement with CLE leaving Cuyahoga, Summit and Portage out of the advisory, especially with a decent impact to the Friday morning commute. We will see how things go tonight...radar pretty lit up near Grand Rapids, so hopefully that's a sign of what's to come. 

[NEOH]

Radar looks great out to the west. Moisture is the one thing we seem to lack during les events.... Nice to see that isn't the case this time. Just need everything else to come together.

[OHweather]

Radar lighting up fast...should be a good night of snow. 

[RogueWaves]

46 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Radar lighting up fast...should be a good night of snow. 

Rip city in SWMI already hit 3" in first 3 hrs. Robust event - storm conditions thru Van Buren Cnty! Winter Wonderland ❄❄

[Stebo]

It must absolutely be coming down in Cleveland

KCLE 300059Z 27015KT 1/8SM +SN FG VV004 01/M01 A2977 RMK AO2 P0006 T00111011

0.06" in 7 minutes is pretty insane rates.

[NEOH]

Had thunder snow a little after 8pm. The heavy band is just south of here...unreal how the heaviest bands miss this area the past two years. Ohweather has been underneath it for awhile. Thundersnow has such a unique sound.... A very low and long rumble to it.

[dta1984]

Yep OHweather under the good band ! 

Light to mod snow here now, nothing too impressive.   Just got home and missed the thundersnow.

[Trent]

Just a dusting here, heavy band developed just to the south. 

That band really means business though!

[OHweather]

I wasn't home for the band, but there's about 3" here.  Again, great call by CLE not including any of Cuyahoga County or the secondary Snowbelt in the advisory.  That 2" per hour snow is no big deal, and it won't snow any more overnight into tomorrow. 

It looks like just a little wind shift from WSW to W was enough to cause that band to pop...the low levels must be pretty juiced because temps on land were not really much colder than the water temps, so although I'm sure some frictional convergence along the shore was responsible for focusing the band and slowing it down where it did, the lake didn't add a ton of juice to that.

Upslope snow has started increasing in Geagua and Portage Counties with a nice blob southwest of Cleveland as well.  The Chardon cam shows pretty decent snow right now.  Snow showers from Lake MI have made it to the western basin, which will likely cause snow coverage to increase again by 11pm to midnight in NE OH.  Mid-level temps also cool a few more degrees over the next several hours which will increase lake induced instability more.  The next shortwave/vort max appears on track for late tonight into early Friday morning, which should again cause an area-wide uptick in snow.  There will be a wind shift from W to WNW with that shortwave, which may try to set off another band.  We'll see.

Overall the forecast still largely looks on track.  The one downfall here is that the lakeshore will continue to largely struggle, but with some Lake Michigan bands making it in and another trough later perhaps they get a bit more. 

[Cleveland_WX]

3 hours ago, OHweather said:

I wasn't home for the band, but there's about 3" here.  Again, great call by CLE not including any of Cuyahoga County or the secondary Snowbelt in the advisory.  That 2" per hour snow is no big deal, and it won't snow any more overnight into tomorrow. 

It looks like just a little wind shift from WSW to W was enough to cause that band to pop...the low levels must be pretty juiced because temps on land were not really much colder than the water temps, so although I'm sure some frictional convergence along the shore was responsible for focusing the band and slowing it down where it did, the lake didn't add a ton of juice to that.

Upslope snow has started increasing in Geagua and Portage Counties with a nice blob southwest of Cleveland as well.  The Chardon cam shows pretty decent snow right now.  Snow showers from Lake MI have made it to the western basin, which will likely cause snow coverage to increase again by 11pm to midnight in NE OH.  Mid-level temps also cool a few more degrees over the next several hours which will increase lake induced instability more.  The next shortwave/vort max appears on track for late tonight into early Friday morning, which should again cause an area-wide uptick in snow.  There will be a wind shift from W to WNW with that shortwave, which may try to set off another band.  We'll see.

Overall the forecast still largely looks on track.  The one downfall here is that the lakeshore will continue to largely struggle, but with some Lake Michigan bands making it in and another trough later perhaps they get a bit more. 

Agree. NWS in Cleveland is very late with issuing alerts, and weather statements. Why is that?

[Cleveland_WX]

looks like CLE might get some more. hopefully it bands over the ohio city. fingers crossed!!

[Trent]

8 hours ago, OHweather said:

I wasn't home for the band, but there's about 3" here.  Again, great call by CLE not including any of Cuyahoga County or the secondary Snowbelt in the advisory.  That 2" per hour snow is no big deal, and it won't snow any more overnight into tomorrow. 

It looks like just a little wind shift from WSW to W was enough to cause that band to pop...the low levels must be pretty juiced because temps on land were not really much colder than the water temps, so although I'm sure some frictional convergence along the shore was responsible for focusing the band and slowing it down where it did, the lake didn't add a ton of juice to that.

Upslope snow has started increasing in Geagua and Portage Counties with a nice blob southwest of Cleveland as well.  The Chardon cam shows pretty decent snow right now.  Snow showers from Lake MI have made it to the western basin, which will likely cause snow coverage to increase again by 11pm to midnight in NE OH.  Mid-level temps also cool a few more degrees over the next several hours which will increase lake induced instability more.  The next shortwave/vort max appears on track for late tonight into early Friday morning, which should again cause an area-wide uptick in snow.  There will be a wind shift from W to WNW with that shortwave, which may try to set off another band.  We'll see.

Overall the forecast still largely looks on track.  The one downfall here is that the lakeshore will continue to largely struggle, but with some Lake Michigan bands making it in and another trough later perhaps they get a bit more. 

There have been a lot of great examples the past few years of how winter weather headline criteria just aren't relevant for properly warning the public. There's no reason a long duration light snowfall event deserves warning but a 3" per hour thundersnow band gets left out. 

I think some offices experimented with impact based headlines a few years ago, but I don't think anything came about from it. There almost needs to be some sort of "intense snow warning" a headline for whiteout conditions that may last a few hours, but keep accumulations below 4". It does seem that the public is craving simplicity in their forecasts, so perhaps the whole headline system needs to be redone. 

I also think it doesn't help that many headlines seem to be reactionary than forecast. The public wants to know what the weather is going to be the next day before they go to bed, or what it will be when they leave work. They don't want to wake up or leave work and see that they've been "upgraded" to a warning when it's obvious looking out the window that it's snowing heavily. People want to plan ahead so upgrading as conditions warrant does nothing to help in that regard.

 

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, Trent said:

There have been a lot of great examples the past few years of how winter weather headline criteria just aren't relevant for properly warning the public. There's no reason a long duration light snowfall event deserves warning but a 3" per hour thundersnow band gets left out. 

I think some offices experimented with impact based headlines a few years ago, but I don't think anything came about from it. There almost needs to be some sort of "intense snow warning" a headline for whiteout conditions that may last a few hours, but keep accumulations below 4". It does seem that the public is craving simplicity in their forecasts, so perhaps the whole headline system needs to be redone. 

I also think it doesn't help that many headlines seem to be reactionary than forecast. The public wants to know what the weather is going to be the next day before they go to bed, or what it will be when they leave work. They don't want to wake up or leave work and see that they've been "upgraded" to a warning when it's obvious looking out the window that it's snowing heavily. People want to plan ahead so upgrading as conditions warrant does nothing to help in that regard.

 

I definitely agree with most of that.  I was surprised at the 2" per hour thundersnow last evening, but that was sort of the dagger after they didn't issue the advisory.  I'm not sure if there's a way to fix it other than common sense when deciding whether or not to issue headlines.  Some events that end up being upgraded mid-way through are truly surprises, and there's nothing that can be done about that, but getting in a habit in borderline situations of not issuing anything until it's abundantly clear it'll verify isn't good IMO.  I'd rather issue and miss than not issue and get hit big. 

The public wants simplicity, but I'm not sure how much simpler the headline system can get...you have headlines for synoptic snow, lake effect snow, ice, and cold...that's it.  I know that public doesn't know the differences between a watch, an advisory, and a warning, but that's on the public and only on the public for not caring to know.  The names of the headlines tell you what they imply, and it's not like mets haven't tried explaining it a million times.  It sounds like the NWS is trying to get rid of LES and ice headlines, so you'd just be left with winter weather advisories/winter storm warnings and the wind chill stuff.  We'll see if that makes any difference to the public.  I'm sure all of a sudden people will be confused when what was a lake effect snow warning is now a winter storm warning when they didn't pay attention to them now. 

I'm curious to see the totals.  They're going to be on the low end across the board again because nothing was organized last night.  It was all moderate to heavy stuff but it just kept moving. 

[MAIDEsNow]

A non-event thus far in central Erie County PA, from Edinboro to the lake-shore. Advisory nor Warning criteria was not met. From headlines starting at 4pm yesterday till 8am this morning, MBY in Edinboro area only got 2.6" and the lake-shore by Waldameer/Presque Isle got nothing / dusting at best.

We experience the opposite issue around here - CLE certainly is not bashful about headlines when many times they are not close to being warranted, especially along the lake-shore.

[Trent]

14 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I'm curious to see the totals.  They're going to be on the low end across the board again because nothing was organized last night.  It was all moderate to heavy stuff but it just kept moving.

Even though I missed most of the snow, it's still fun to track these types of events. These are pretty much NE Ohio's "bread and butter" snowfalls, especially for the secondary snowbelts. Even though the snowfall totals might be a bit low, these types of events are much more reliable at producing snow than tracking a gulf low for a week. 

As for 2016, Cleveland has locked in warmest year on record. 2012 had an average temp of 54.09 and 2016 looks to come in around 54.25 give or take a couple hundredths depending on tomorrow's exact high and low. What that comes down to is if you took the same daily average temperatures in 2012, 60 days in 2016 would have been 1 degree warmer than 2012. 

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, MAIDEsNow said:

A non-event thus far in central Erie County PA, from Edinboro to the lake-shore. Advisory nor Warning criteria was not met. From headlines starting at 4pm yesterday till 8am this morning, MBY in Edinboro area only got 2.6" and the lake-shore by Waldameer/Presque Isle got nothing / dusting at best.

We experience the opposite issue around here - CLE certainly is not bashful about headlines when many times they are not close to being warranted, especially along the lake-shore.

That honestly shocks me. Radar and satellite looked good in NW PA last night although with the radar beam being so high there it's hard to tell. I can't think of a good reason for why the higher terrain there didn't do at least half decently. But it happens I guess. 

The lakeshore busts pretty often everywhere because it's hard to get big events there, so I'm sure CLE over warns there. You seem to normally do ok at least inland, although this event really didn't pan out. 

[dta1984]

2" here.  Bummer that no bands really ever got organized.   Maybe a little more will fall throughout the day.

[dta1984]

Wonder if the southern areas that were under the band last night (un warned areas) end up being the winners?  The cle discussion mentions most areas of geauga are struggling to get 4".

[MAIDEsNow]

Northern Crawford has done much better, Cambridge Springs 7 miles south of me reported 7 inches as of 2am. Not sure if that band last night / this morning was clipping southwestern Erie County or not, Albion, Elk Creek, etc.

Will make a drive eastward this afternoon to see if Greene, Amity, Venango and Greenfield townships did any better. Although a co-worker was skiing at Holiday Valley yesterday and last night and said it was bad coming back westward on I-86 till he hit the PA line, then the snow promptly abated.

I think the best snows will end up south. Saw that they recently hoisted warnings in Mercer and Venango counties.

[OHweather]

What really surprised me and killed totals was the lack of good upslope snow developing. The lack of organized bands was expected, but upslope was expected to offset that in the higher terrain. 

Higher totals being well inland normally is a symptom of the wind being too strong, but we've gotten decent upslope snow with stronger winds. Another issue I noticed was T/Dew spreads were a few degrees larger than modeled resulting in lower RH values and higher cloud bases. That may be why upslope never really got going, which did kill totals in some areas. 3 events this year where things have just been a little off and really hurt totals. 

[NEOH]

Around 2" here. Ridging is pushing in from the west so that should do it... Outside of a few more snow showers. On to the next.

[MAIDEsNow]

3" today as of 9pm. Funny that is all fell in the last few hours, right around 5:30 on as the Warning expired. So including the synoptic  Weds night, had a modest total:

2.5 weds night, 1.2 thursday, 2.6 thursday night, 3.0 Friday = 9.3"

 

This snowfall pushed my December total to 62.7", which is the most snow I have received in December in my 13 years living here.

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, MAIDEsNow said:

3" today as of 9pm. Funny that is all fell in the last few hours, right around 5:30 on as the Warning expired. So including the synoptic  Weds night, had a modest total:

2.5 weds night, 1.2 thursday, 2.6 thursday night, 3.0 Friday = 9.3"

 

This snowfall pushed my December total to 62.7", which is the most snow I have received in December in my 13 years living here.

Definitely a good month for those who cashed in on the LES. Frustrating for those who just missed it! 

I'm at 19.3" on the season (with 17.7" of that coming in December). Those numbers are both below normal, but after being in Athens for the meat of the last 3 winters (and part of the 12-13 winter, although I was here for the decent December stretch in 2012) it seems like enough snow to go around.

[Trent]

Here's the 2016 daily temperature departure for CLE, for the warmest year on record. The past 6 months have been rocked with continual warmth except for the mid December cold snap. Even with that cold snap, December will likely only finish 0.1 degree below normal for the month at CLE.

 

[dta1984]

Happy new year all!  

Looks like a warm few days ahead in the 40s.  Maybe lake effect towards the end of the week.  Cle mentions it starting as a west flow.  Hopefully we can get a little more NW at some point.

[NEOH]

Looks like the LES event this week will favor the areas that do best with a westerly (260-270) flow once again. Congrats to the usual suspects. At least locally, this has been a bummer start to the winter. While we had some snowcover in December for a change, we've missed out on the significant LES events in this area. The western basin should develop ice again fairly quickly.

[Trent]

For the most part, the winter outlooks this season were quite favorable for these parts. That hasn't proved to be the case so far. That's what made last winter's synoptic failure a little more tolerable, since it was well known in the fall that winter was going to be a dud. 

Hopefully things turn around by mid month. Even in these somewhat boring patterns it always seems something minor tends to sneak in.