Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[OHweather]

Not a ton of snow, but with how cold the pavement is and with snow changing to sleet and then freezing rain, it'll be slick tonight. Could see pavement stay frozen until temps are well above freezing due to how cold the ground is after the recent cold.

[Buckeye_Weather]

OHweather, what are your thoughts around Christmas? Think us in NE OH will have any chance of a White Christmas?

[Chinook]

NWS Cleveland created a map and a snowfall summary for the lake effect snow that happened recently

http://www.weather.gov/cle/event_20161208-1210_LakeEffectSnow

[Trent]

Models have really scaled back on the QPF for the event tonight and tomorrow. 

It doesn't take much freezing rain to cause a significant impact, so it could still be treacherous in the morning. However, I'm skeptical that 2-4" of snow is going to fall before the switchover to sleet, freezing rain, and rain. 

[OHweather]

11 hours ago, Buckeye_Weather said:

OHweather, what are your thoughts around Christmas? Think us in NE OH will have any chance of a White Christmas?

The Snowbelt may hang on to enough snow cover to have a White Christmas, but the pattern as a whole will not be conducive to snow late next week so unless something fluky happens we won't have fresh snow falling.

3 hours ago, Trent said:

Models have really scaled back on the QPF for the event tonight and tomorrow. 

It doesn't take much freezing rain to cause a significant impact, so it could still be treacherous in the morning. However, I'm skeptical that 2-4" of snow is going to fall before the switchover to sleet, freezing rain, and rain. 

This is still an interesting event...precip may get pretty intense on the nose of like a 70kt low level jet, and if that occurs before we switch to a mix there could be quick snow accums. There's also the possibility of a quarter to half inch of liquid equivalent falling as sleet or freezing rain in east-central OH...it'll be coming down hard so I doubt that much ice accretes, but this could be quite a messy scenario late tonight. Luckily it's the middle of the night on a Friday night.

 

[dta1984]

Ohweather...what are your thoughts tomorrow night and Sunday for snow?   Cle mentions a general 1-3 for both periods.

[OHweather]

2 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Ohweather...what are your thoughts tomorrow night and Sunday for snow?   Cle mentions a general 1-3 for both periods.

Tomorrow night I do not expect much. Warm air holds on aloft so there may be a period of sleet or light freezing rain tomorrow night before changing to flurries. Just not much moisture leftover by the time the whole column cools below freezing...maybe a dusting as it looks now.

For Sunday there will be some LES, although moisture is limited and instability is marginal. Winds gradually go from NW to SW from Sunday morning through Sunday night...when the winds go WNW and W there may briefly be a period of pre-conditioning from Lake Michigan, and that could be enough for the higher terrain east of town to see an inch or two of LES. I think that's about all she'll write after tonight.

The western basin is definitely developing a fair amount of ice, so although timing is crappy around the holidays a bit of a warm up isn't a bad thing. I expect the cold to return by mid January.

[Trent]

Picked up a whopping 0.2" of snow overnight. There appeared to be a very fine glaze on top, so it likely ended as some freezing drizzle. Temps already safely above freezing and rising.

It looks like some areas could get an inch of rain tonight before temps plummet again. It's amazing how difficult it is to get synoptic snowstorms to materialize around here, especially considering all the storms that have happened in the region the past few winters. 

[OHweather]

3 hours ago, Trent said:

Picked up a whopping 0.2" of snow overnight. There appeared to be a very fine glaze on top, so it likely ended as some freezing drizzle. Temps already safely above freezing and rising.

It looks like some areas could get an inch of rain tonight before temps plummet again. It's amazing how difficult it is to get synoptic snowstorms to materialize around here, especially considering all the storms that have happened in the region the past few winters. 

Being just west of the Apps really is a less than ideal spot. Storms blow up in the Plains and want to cut up to our NW, or blow up off the East Coast and whiff to our east. I picked up a little over an inch of snow last night, not spectacular. 

[NEOH]

35/35 Imby. Looked like under an inch of snow last night... But there was a glaze on top. What an awful "storm". 

[dta1984]

7 minutes ago, NEOH said:

35/35 Imby. Looked like under an inch of snow last night... But there was a glaze on top. What an awful "storm". 

What a raw day. Temps definitely underperformed.   Snowpack still holding on and will be a glacier later today.  Hoping for a few inches tonight /tomorrow. 

[OHweather]

Temps may run a bit cooler than modeled tonight...and precip may spread farther NW. Some of the short term hi res stuff has a good amount of ice and some snow later tonight. 

[NEOH]

Down to 33 Imby with light rain. Looks like mix line is just to the southwest. Hopefully we can hang to snow cover. Highest temp today was 36.

[Trent]

Brutal. Picked up about 0.60" of rain overnight with temps between 32.5 and 34. It turned into freezing rain at the tail end when temps finally dipped below freezing before finishing as a couple flurries. 

My snow pack is down to an inch. 

[OHweather]

It sounds like the ice caused a bunch of road issues last night, with a lot of main roads/highways freezing over because the ground stayed cold and because all the rain washed away treatment from the night before. I didn't even try driving home last night so I have no clue what roads were like locally, I just know my car was covered in ice by this morning.

We saw a little LES band sit overhead most of the afternoon, and it snowed lightly but with fluffy flakes from about 9am until almost 4pm. We picked up about 1.7" from all of it here in Reminderville.

[dta1984]

Picked up .75" throughout the day yesterday.   The lake effect that did form mostly stayed to the south west. 

Looks like a rather boring next week or so.  Good news is that hopefully any more ice build up in the western basin will be halted.

While we have missed a few good lake effect bands around here, this December is far better than the past few years.  

[NEOH]

CLE is sitting at -4.6 for the month. Pretty large negative departure considering how warm it has been this year.

It has been a good December compared to previous years.

[Trent]

The past few days have been a good example of how temperatures above freezing don't really melt much snow if you don't have high dewpoints. We've spent almost 24 hours with temps in the mid to upper 30s and dews in the low to mid 20s and the measly 1 inch of snow cover hasn't budged. Saturday will probably wipe everything away on the west side.

CLE definitely won't have a white Christmas, but I'm sure the primary belt will retain some snow through Sunday morning. 2004 was the last time CLE has had more than 1" on the ground at Christmas! 

[carumba]

11 minutes ago, Trent said:

The past few days have been a good example of how temperatures above freezing don't really melt much snow if you don't have high dewpoints. We've spent almost 24 hours with temps in the mid to upper 30s and dews in the low to mid 20s and the measly 1 inch of snow cover hasn't budged. Saturday will probably wipe everything away on the west side.

CLE definitely won't have a white Christmas, but I'm sure the primary belt will retain some snow through Sunday morning. 2004 was the last time CLE has had more than 1" on the ground at Christmas! 

2004 was the year I moved here from Philly. My first Xmas was spent in Shaker Hts. The day before was cold, maybe high teens, and snowing, and Xmas day itself was beautiful too. Since then I have yet to see any kind of snowfall on Xmas day. Kind of crazy considering how much snow we generally get on the east side...

[OHweather]

We may sneak in a white Christmas due to the pure persistence of this snow pack on the east side...have had 2-3" on the ground since Tuesday and it hasn't budged much...was close to 4" on Sunday evening. It's very dense and may barely survive until Sunday.

[NEOH]

It wasn't the most scenic but we had a white Christmas. Hope everyone had a good one. Drove north through Chardon up to Concord last night... lots of snow up that way. Route 6 and Auburn seemed to have the most.

[OHweather]

It was questionable whether or not the ground was still 50% covered or not here today...marginal white Christmas at best down here...it'll be a moot point tomorrow with temps in the 60s.  It will be interesting to see if the heart of the Snowbelt can hang on to some snow cover since the warm up will be relatively brief.

The lake effect Thursday night into Friday could be OK...instability won't be extreme, but there will be good moisture and a WNW fetch with little shear, so it could be an OK event...maybe enough for some advisories.

[Trent]

Today's record warmth surely wiped out all of NE Ohio's snowcover except for driveway and parking lot piles. 65 at CLE breaks the old record of 64 from 1875. That has to be one of the oldest records still standing for Cleveland!

Cleveland is still on track for a record warmest year as we count down the days to 2017. If the end of the week ends up being colder than forecast it might end up being a tie with 2012. 

[Trent]

The temp at CLE kept surging well after sunset to an unbelievable record high of 68 for the day, which also ties the warmest it's ever been for the last half of December in Cleveland. Warmth will not be denied this year.

[NEOH]

5 hours ago, Trent said:

The temp at CLE kept surging well after sunset to an unbelievable record high of 68 for the day, which also ties the warmest it's ever been for the last half of December in Cleveland. Warmth will not be denied this year.

I couldn't believe how warm it was last night when I went outside. Max temp IMBY was 63. Bare ground a few piles left here. The good news is that any ice on the western basin took a beating as well. We've been in a synoptic snow wasteland for quite some time... hopefully our luck changes with the pattern.

[Trent]

It's funny that CLE was finally able to secure a below normal temperature month (albeit only about -0.5) after months of record breaking heat, but snowfall for the month was still less than half of normal. 

At least the warm-up allows for an ice melt in the western basin. It keeps open the possibility for more impressive LES once the pattern changes again. 

I'm not one to really buy into the idea that a place is "overdue" for a certain type of weather. But, considering CLE's relatively high annual average snowfall, the number of large snows that have historically impacted CLE, and the number of major snow events over the past few years for nearby climate sites, the lack of big (or even moderate) snows the past 5 years at CLE is ridiculous.

[OHweather]

6 hours ago, Trent said:

It's funny that CLE was finally able to secure a below normal temperature month (albeit only about -0.5) after months of record breaking heat, but snowfall for the month was still less than half of normal. 

At least the warm-up allows for an ice melt in the western basin. It keeps open the possibility for more impressive LES once the pattern changes again. 

I'm not one to really buy into the idea that a place is "overdue" for a certain type of weather. But, considering CLE's relatively high annual average snowfall, the number of large snows that have historically impacted CLE, and the number of major snow events over the past few years for nearby climate sites, the lack of big (or even moderate) snows the past 5 years at CLE is ridiculous.

Snow in the Cleveland area (outside of the snowbelt especially) really is such a conundrum. We really are in a poor spot for big synoptic snowstorms...lows are favored to develop over the Plains, and those often cut to our northwest and bring warmth or shear out/weaken before they get here. Lows are also favored to form over the Gulf Coast (which is where some of our largest snowstorms have come from), but those often go to our east. Lows are also favored to develop off the East Coast, which is almost never good for us. We need to hope for a low that either doesn't blow up too quickly to our west, or a Gulf low that manages to track more north-northeast and doesn't miss us to the east for a huge snow. It can and has happened, but it's not necessarily easy. Our bread and butter is definitely numerous light to occasionally moderate synoptic snow, with a good bit of lake effect mixed in. Despite the negatives I mentioned above, when we lock into an active pattern with frequent small systems and lake enhancement/lake effect with them or behind them, it can add up quickly, even without a huge foot plus synoptic snow storm. We have seen two pretty good LES events so far this winter, but one completely missed CLE and one just missed CLE with the jackpot. Otherwise, we haven't been locked into a great pattern snow yet, so it's all been about whether or not a spot has cashed in on LES or not.

Last winter was a complete turd and I don't wish to attempt to polish that at all, lol. 2013-14 and 14-15 definitely had their highlights at times...14-15 had a very good string of LES events in November that did affect the Cleveland area well...and what is probably one of the most intense stretches of winter (between above normal snow and bitter cold) we've seen in our lifetimes from mid-January through the first few days of March. We did mix in a synoptic storm on Superbowl Sunday that winter that did drop a widespread 8-12" on the lakeshore counties, although I can't remember if they managed to properly measure that one at the airport or not. That storm looked like a bust last second but ended up panning out, which may cloud people's memories of it...it was 10" of cement that froze over the next day and was definitely a decent storm. The downfall of that winter was that December and March...typically months that can be quite productive (especially December)...were both almost snowless, so we finished the winter a little bit below average, but definitely had some very good stretches along with one pretty big storm. 13-14 didn't have a huge synoptic storm, but had numerous light to moderate events, enough to push CLE to over 80". We did not do as well as TOL and DET, and even CMH compared to normal, so I guess we were in a local screw-hole, but that probably just comes from bad luck more than anything else. It's also worth noting that some of the storms in the TOL and DET area in the 13-14 and 14-15 winters were pretty high end for them in terms of big storms, and that the big storm that crushed the eastern OV (mainly WV) last winter was also pretty high end for that area as well...so it's not like you'd expect a repeat of those types of storms nearby every winter, but I'd think we're due for a nice warning criteria synoptic snowfall on the order of 6 to 10" soon. At least I hope!

[OHweather]

The snow event Thursday afternoon through Friday continues to look interesting...could be an inch of wet snow very early Thursday with the cold front, especially on the east side as the moisture will just be sliding in as the front moves through northern Ohio. After that, a prolonged lake enhanced event starts up Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with some light lingering lake effect Friday afternoon into Friday night.

With a WNW flow, good synoptic moisture, a Lake Michigan connection at times, a deep layer of instability, and multiple vort maxes (I count 3 on the models from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning) dropping through, the higher terrain could see a prolonged period of moderate to heavy snow Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  Lake Michigan moisture and a favorable WNW flow for upslope could even bring 2-4" type snows into the higher terrain of the central highlands near Mansfield.  Still some time to iron out the specifics, but I'm thinking 4-8" for the higher terrain of the primary Snowbelt and 3-6" for the higher terrain of the secondary Snowbelt from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with perhaps another inch or so here and there with the lingering lake effect after that time.  The lakeshore will likely struggle a bit more, but should at least cover the ground.  I'll probably post a forecast Wednesday night, but this could be a widespread advisory event at least for the primary and secondary belts...with maybe some warning amounts in parts of Geauga County.  With a longer fetch over warmer water and more terrain in NW PA, the higher terrain there could see local amounts of over a foot.

[NEOH]

11 hours ago, OHweather said:

The snow event Thursday afternoon through Friday continues to look interesting...could be an inch of wet snow very early Thursday with the cold front, especially on the east side as the moisture will just be sliding in as the front moves through northern Ohio. After that, a prolonged lake enhanced event starts up Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with some light lingering lake effect Friday afternoon into Friday night.

With a WNW flow, good synoptic moisture, a Lake Michigan connection at times, a deep layer of instability, and multiple vort maxes (I count 3 on the models from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning) dropping through, the higher terrain could see a prolonged period of moderate to heavy snow Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  Lake Michigan moisture and a favorable WNW flow for upslope could even bring 2-4" type snows into the higher terrain of the central highlands near Mansfield.  Still some time to iron out the specifics, but I'm thinking 4-8" for the higher terrain of the primary Snowbelt and 3-6" for the higher terrain of the secondary Snowbelt from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with perhaps another inch or so here and there with the lingering lake effect after that time.  The lakeshore will likely struggle a bit more, but should at least cover the ground.  I'll probably post a forecast Wednesday night, but this could be a widespread advisory event at least for the primary and secondary belts...with maybe some warning amounts in parts of Geauga County.  With a longer fetch over warmer water and more terrain in NW PA, the higher terrain there could see local amounts of over a foot.

Pretty good set-up indeed. It has the potential to be our largest LES event at least locally in the Chagrin/South Russell area (we were skirted by the others). Relatively short duration but the parameters look good.

[Trent]

Things seem to be trending more favorably for tomorrow's event. It would be nice to get the ground covered again. 

Hi resolution satellite imagery this morning shows the western basin mostly cleared out with some slushy ice near the Canada side.