Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[Trent]

3 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Thanks. Amazing stretch of warmth. Yeah... the switch has to flip at some point. Let's just keep lake erie nice and warm until then. Lake temps are still in the mid 60's...
looks like that is right around average for the date which is surprising.

 

The 1980-2010 average water temp for the Cleveland CRIB station is 60 degrees for October 19. They are reporting a 65 degree water temperature today. 

We're coming up on 3 years since that late October lake effect snow storm in NE Ohio. I could only imagine the tree damage that would cause if it happened this year ... Not to mention the possible implications of a potential World Series game being snowed out.   

[Trent]

Our 3.5+ month stretch of consistently above normal temperatures is about to come to an end. What a run. Here are the daily temperature departures at CLE for the year and since 4th of July.

 

[dta1984]

Wow that's a pretty remarkable stretch! Hopefully we can flip the switch to cold and snowy in 3-4 weeks.   I'd be all for a lighter Nov snow if we can have a good Dec.   The last few years have barely managed any snow in Dec.  In fact, I believe April was snowier than Dec last year.  

Leaves are really coming down now with the rain and cooler temps.  

[Trent]

Here's the current Lake Erie temperature plot compared to the past 5 years. Temps should start to plunge this week, but we're still running way ahead of previous years.

[dta1984]

There's a decent Huron lake effect rain band in Ashtabula county.  

[Trent]

Got to love that early-November-balmy-upper-70s-World-Series weather in Cleveland today!

[dta1984]

22 hours ago, Trent said:

Got to love that early-November-balmy-upper-70s-World-Series weather in Cleveland today!

Fantastic baseball weather .  Tonight will be almost as good as yesterday .  Go Tribe! 

Found this interesting ; 

http://www.weather.gov/cle/news_freezeupoutlook

 

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Fantastic baseball weather .  Tonight will be almost as good as yesterday .  Go Tribe! 

Found this interesting ; 

http://www.weather.gov/cle/news_freezeupoutlook

 

Good stuff. Thanks for sharing. I've haven't seen that before. Let's preserve as much lake warmth as possible. Hopefully we can get a multi-day LES event with above normal water temps. 

Another great day out there... Go Tribe!

[OHweather]

GFS and Euro both hinting at the first shot of LES next weekend, and ensembles have trended colder as well...hope it holds. Bring it on! 

[dta1984]

On 11/5/2016 at 5:20 PM, OHweather said:

GFS and Euro both hinting at the first shot of LES next weekend, and ensembles have trended colder as well...hope it holds. Bring it on! 

Sounds good to me!  It would be right on schedule with the past few years first les.  Grass cutting appears to be over and the majority of leaves have dropped.  

[Jim Martin]

Saturday Morning is starting to look a bit nippy for Northern Ohio. The Forecast Models showing low temperatures Saturday down into the lower 30s. Even though the growing season is finished, a heavy frost is looking to be a distinct possibility.

[OHweather]

8 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Sounds good to me!  It would be right on schedule with the past few years first les.  Grass cutting appears to be over and the majority of leaves have dropped.  

Models have trended faster with building the ridging back in and probably just linger enough moisture for some snow to mix in Friday night before the lake effect shuts off...so still think first flakes are on the table, but probably will be hard to see accumulations unless the trough trends slower/farther west. I'm sure we'll have more opportunities coming up.

[Jim Martin]

Nice view of the Supermoon tonight in Findlay.

[OHweather]

After my jinx job last week I'm not saying anything at this time regarding anything coming up in the weather department. 

[nwohweather]

That lake temp in the western basin has dropped off pretty nice into the 40s now. Still can't believe it's close to 60 in the two deep spots of Lake Erie. Just a very long and mild growing season

[dta1984]

Definitely seems late this weekend could be a little snowy.  Not sure on accumulations given the mild weather lately....then again we did have accumulation in may last year   

Speaking of last year,  just looked back over my data and I recorded 79.5" of snow.  Sure doesn't seem like we got that much.  Looks like 15" of that came in April and may.   Crazy year.  

Here's to a better year this year!     

[Trent]

Hard not to notice how warm the past year has been. At CLE the past year is 0.8 degrees warmer than the previous warmest year in 2012. 

I'm hoping we can finally break the constant above normal temperature days that have been firmly in place since the 4th of July. 

CLE has still not had a first freeze yet, the last time it was this late in the season was 1946. If we can manage an early December arctic outbreak the LES belts could cash in nicely. 

[OHweather]

This weekend has my attention, with a cut off low nearby to the NE. A couple ways this can bust, either it speeds up too fast (faster than the current GFS) and we get limited moisture and a short LES window, or cuts off too far south (similar to the current run of the Canadian) and warm air wraps in from the east and keeps us mainly rain. The middle solution involves possible lake effect/enhanced snow with lift from the low adding to that...similar to the 0z Euro. Models haven't settled on a solition yet and it's a fickle setup with the low closing off. Runs that don't have the low closing off, like the recent GFS have plenty cold temps for snow by Saturday night but have less moisture and about a 24 hour LES window. The Euro has toyed with the idea of closing the low off, keeping us under favorable moisture and lift longer and keeping us just cold enough for all snow, which is the best case. Problem is if the low closes off and the cold air gets cut off there's less margin for error, and we run the risk of not being cold enough for good accumulations. So, temperature questions, moisture questions, the usual. Lakeshore may not do well either way (sorry Trent), but inland this is a high potential event, but still with lots of time and ways to bust. I'd give it another day or two before getting too excited. Another issue is a few trees still have leaves and if it does snow it'll be wet and accompanied but decently strong winds. 

[dta1984]

Good analysis!

Cle seems to be biting in their latest discussion.  Mentions potential of significant accumulations sat night -mon.

[Trent]

7 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Good analysis!

Cle seems to be biting in their latest discussion.  Mentions potential of significant accumulations sat night -mon.

Yeah. That was pretty strong wording for this far out. There's even specific mention that it will turn to snow for lakeshore areas. 

For what it's worth the airport still has not had a freeze, which is the latest ever for the airport location. There were 6 other earlier years, at the lakeshore, before the airport was built that still hadn't had a freeze yet. Lots of warm anomalies in that lake for the coming winter!

[NEOH]

19 hours ago, Trent said:

Yeah. That was pretty strong wording for this far out. There's even specific mention that it will turn to snow for lakeshore areas. 

For what it's worth the airport still has not had a freeze, which is the latest ever for the airport location. There were 6 other earlier years, at the lakeshore, before the airport was built that still hadn't had a freeze yet. Lots of warm anomalies in that lake for the coming winter!

Hard to believe the airport hasn't had a freeze yet. Temps are so much cooler once you get away from urban areas. We are consistently 5 to as much as 10 degrees cooler for lows. This morning for example I think the low was 36 at CLE, while it was 31 IMBY.

Looking forward to seeing some snow this weekend. It will be interesting to see what happens with 850 temps of -10 to -12 coming over these water temps --

 

[NEOH]

CLE highlights the negatives for the snow this weekend. Early season LES seems to always deliver with such dramatic lake/air temp differentials. Pretty good set-up though for those of us in the southern portion of the snowbelt.

Looking for below freezing temperatures into Sunday Night with H850 temperatures at or below -8C. With the lake still warm (lower
50s) this is a supporting lapse rate for lake enhancement. There are some conditions that don`t favor organizing banding such as
the strong wind speed and shear, short residence time across the lake (1-2hrs), and no notable Huron influence from the fetch.
Despite these limiting factors...the duration of the event along with the continued development will likely produce the seasons
first measurable snowfall in the lake effect region. The strong nw winds will help drive the measurable snowfall further inland
than standard lake effect events. With winds gusting upwards of 40 mph near the lakeshore expect blowing snow conditions. Outside 
of the snowbelt the snowfall is not expected to accumulate.

[OHweather]

This is shaping up to be an interesting forecast to say the least. As it stands, I expect a significant event for NW PA and SW NY, with 8-16" totals in the higher terrain in inland Erie County, northern Crawford County, and Chautauqua County. BUF issued a watch this afternoon for SW NY and CLE should have followed for NW PA IMO. For NE OH it is tougher...despite some negatives that CLE mentioned in their AFD, there are enough positives that there should be a decent period of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow in the higher terrain of the Snowbelt Saturday night into early Sunday. Most models currently strip the best moisture away by Sunday morning, so if that verifies we'll probably be left with less significant snow showers that linger through Sunday night. My current guess is for 4-7" in the higher terrain in northern Geauga and inland Ashtabula Counties by Monday morning, with perhaps a few inches in eastern Cuyahoga, southern Geauga, and maybe 2-4" type amounts sneaking into NE Summit and northern Portage. I still don't expect a ton by the shore, but if there are good bursts, which appears possible, the ground could whiten.

Exactly how quickly the upper low cuts off is key to our forecast. The current consensus, which is what I based my quick forecast above off of, is for the low to close off late enough that NE OH looses the better moisture and upper level support by Sunday morning. We'd still get a good period of lake enhanced precip Saturday night into early Sunday, and lake effect conditions remain OK into Sunday night, but the heavy enhanced precip shifts east into NW PA/SW NY on Sunday, where it then dumps for another 12-18 hours into Sunday night before starting to taper there too. The GFS is a little faster than this, although the 18z run slowed down a little bit. The NAM and Euro are just slightly too fast for NE OH, but are a tick away from being a significant event for the primary Snowbelt here as well. So, things can still trend better or worse, but as it stands we are near the edge but should still see something half decent.

[NEOH]

21 hours ago, NEOH said:

Hard to believe the airport hasn't had a freeze yet. Temps are so much cooler once you get away from urban areas. We are consistently 5 to as much as 10 degrees cooler for lows. This morning for example I think the low was 36 at CLE, while it was 31 IMBY.

Looking forward to seeing some snow this weekend. It will be interesting to see what happens with 850 temps of -10 to -12 coming over these water temps --

 

 

The low at CLE was 57 last night... it was 46 IMBY. Hopefully we see good model trends today. Be nice for the moisture to hang around a little longer.

[dta1984]

Looking forward to more wintry weather finally.  I'd be fine with just a few inches to start the season.   

I'll be driving to Erie Sunday evening.  Should be an interesting drive.  Then again that drive is mostly near the lake, so may not be that bad.

[NEOH]

40 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Looking forward to more wintry weather finally.  I'd be fine with just a few inches to start the season.   

I'll be driving to Erie Sunday evening.  Should be an interesting drive.  Then again that drive is mostly near the lake, so may not be that bad.

No doubt... it will be nice to see the snow again. Hopefully the low closes off a little further southwest than what the models are showing to keep the moisture back this way. You are going to have fun drive to Erie.

[Trent]

3 hours ago, NEOH said:

The low at CLE was 57 last night... it was 46 IMBY. Hopefully we see good model trends today. Be nice for the moisture to hang around a little longer.

IMBY, the coldest I've been this season is 35. There's definitely a lake influence this time of year with overnight lows. 

I've noticed that I almost always see my first snow of the season before my first freeze. It's an odd quirk living near the lake. 

[Jebman]

Upper Midwest will have prolonged record cold this winter. Any snow that accumulates will stay around til September.

You will have many snowstorms. Get extra snow shovels, particularly the Jebman brand with a fiberglass handle and  a reinforced square edge. You can chip thru thick ice with those, as well as digging thru mountains of windblown drifts. That is the shovel that I used to liberate Dale City last January in the Great Blizzard of 2016. Don't take chances, folks. Have at least FIVE of those shovels on hand.

 

If you get overwhelmed by too much snow, you know who to call:

 

Jeb !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[OHweather]

It’s a beautiful site! After being transplanted to a Virginia-like climate for the last 12 or 13 months, the models have a closed low just to our northeast Saturday night, with plenty of cold air and synoptic moisture moving over the unseasonably warm waters of Lake Erie. Finally, the wait is over and our first true taste of winter is here!

A band of ana-frontal/post-frontal rain will not clear eastern OH until late Saturday morning/around noon near the PA boarder. 925mb temps will crash to 0 to -2C by 13-14z/8-9AM, with surface temps in the upper 30s to near 40. These low level temp profile will be marginally supportive for some flakes mixing in on the back edge of the ana-frontal rain band. So, this basically means that we’ll start our Saturday on a positive note, assuming you like mangled snowflakes mixing in for 20 minutes with gusty winds and falling temperatures as much as I do. It doesn’t mean much more, because the precip will briefly pull out of the area before anything more interesting happens.

Interesting weather returns late Saturday afternoon/early evening as a vort max rotates across northern Ohio and Lake Erie. This vort max will move in on the leading edge of wrap around moisture, and also be accompanied by a surface trough/wind shift that will drop southeast across the lake. Oh, this is exciting already!

Here is the surface map, showing a noticeable kink in the isobars and shift in the winds. The winds ahead of the trough over NE OH/NW PA are WSW, with winds behind the trough out of the WNW. These are fun wind directions, because it gives a long fetch for the trough to work with over Lake Erie, and also brings pre-seeding from southern Lake Michigan. The thermodynamic environment as this trough pushes across the lake will become extremely favorable:

Deep moisture to nearly 20k feet, over 700 J/KG of lake induced CAPE, with equilibrium levels near 13K feet, along with the convergence with the trough and likely pre-seeding from Lake Michigan will combine to generate intense precipitation along the wind shift as it pushes off of Lake Erie. A band may briefly form over the lake parallel to the shore in the WSW flow ahead of the trough and swing inland. 925mb temperatures of -2 to -3C and 850mb temperatures of around -8C as the trough pushes inland will easily support all snow (or perhaps graupel) with any decent bursts of precipitation. Inland it probably won’t take much of a burst to fall as graupel or snow, as these temperatures are a couple of degrees C colder than what it normally takes to get early-season accumulating lake effect snow.

The trough pushes south fairly quickly, however many areas will likely see a quick burst of snow. Given the likelihood of intense precipitation along this trough, some areas could see a quick half inch or inch of snow as the trough pushes inland…even the lakeshore may see accumulations if a good burst moves overhead. The layer of instability may be just deep enough for a few lightning strikes as the trough pushes on shore.

Behind this first trough, the isobars will become oriented just north of true NW to SE, with WNW surface winds. The isobar pattern is very close to historic isobar patterns for heavy single banded snow in Cuyahoga County, but is perhaps oriented slightly more N to S than the average of those events. The winds are also stronger. With that said, some convergence should still set up due to friction and the colder air inland butting up against the lake modified air, and based on the strong flow possibly pushing the convergence a bit inland, and isobar pattern, the potential for a more focused area of snow showers will extend from Lorain County east through the southern half of Cuyahoga County into Geauga, inland Ashtabula, northern Trumbull and southern Erie PA Counties. The strong winds will likely prohibit a true primary band from forming, but enhanced convergence in this area should result in better snow.

The instability and moisture remain very favorable through the overnight, with equilibrium heights hanging near 12k feet and deep moisture lingering to 10k feet or higher into early Sunday morning. With strong wind hitting the terrain at a fairly good angle, I expect the combination of some convergence as discussed above and orographic lift to wring out decent snow across the higher terrain in NW PA, inland Ashtabula, Geauga County, eastern Cuyahoga County, and likely into the hills in northern Summit County, southern Cuyahoga County, and northern Medina County through the night.

In addition to the relatively favorable looking wind direction and convergence, but upstream moisture from Lakes Superior/Michigan will likely swing from NW PA Saturday evening into the primary NE Ohio Snowbelt overnight Saturday night, and perhaps onto the west side Sunday morning as the winds gradually veer to a more northwesterly direction. Any upstream connections may result in locally heavier bands of snow, despite the relatively strong winds and some wind shear otherwise preventing strong banding. A Lake Huron connection will also edge west into NW PA early Sunday morning. The deep synoptic moisture, convergence south of the shore, orographic lift, and strong instability support a general snow downwind of the lake focused on the higher terrain, but any of these upstream connections will support narrow heavier bands of snow within that.

The NAM and GFS both bring one last vort max across Lake Erie and into north central and northeast Ohio very early Sunday morning; this could bring another intensification in the snow for a few hours very early Sunday, both due to the added lift from the vort max and the subtle surface trough/wind shift with the vort max adding to the low level convergence near the lakeshore.

My general rule of thumb is that moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow will continue until at least when the 70% RH line at 700mb moves east of the area; the general consensus is for this to occur around 7-8AM in Cleveland on Sunday, by 10AM in Geauga County, and around noon in Ashtabula County. As the low cuts off and slows over New England this drying will really slow as it reaches NW PA, and they may remain in the moisture cyclonic flow into Sunday night, before gradually drying into Monday.

This suggests the large blob of decent snow will end in NE Ohio Sunday morning from west to east, but perhaps linger over NW PA through Sunday and into Sunday night.

The SREF mean matches the recent GFS/NAM/Euro runs fairly well with how quickly it moves the 70% 700mb RH line east Sunday morning. Several members are slower and would keep heavier snow going longer in NE OH Sunday morning, and it’s worth noting that just small changes in the models WRT their handling of this cut off low may have impacts on how much snow falls in NE OH. The models have been relatively consistent their last couple of runs, so we’ll see if the current consensus holds up.

Even after the best moisture strips away, the instability/moisture profile aren’t “horrible” for pure lake effect that may be leftover. Equilibrium levels take until Sunday evening to fall below 10K feet, and moisture is solid at and below 5k feet, and into the DGZ all of Sunday. The flow is WNW which isn’t the longest fetch but also isn’t the shortest, and winds in the low levels, which still a little stronger than preferable, do weaken some compared to Saturday night. This leads me to believe that disorganized light to moderate snow showers will continue on Sunday. With 850mb temps of colder than -10C, clouds/snow showers around all day, and probably some snow on the ground in most of the Snowbelt away from the shoreline, highs on Sunday will struggle to hit freezing in many spots and any additional snow showers may produce an additional inch or so in spots Sunday afternoon.

With a WNW to NW wind, I’d expect any connection to the upper Great Lakes to move into the Cleveland metro and/or primary Snowbelt Sunday afternoon. Although the atmosphere will be drying some, sufficient instability and improving low level winds (weakening speed and directional shear) may allow for a disorganized band or two to possibly form downwind of these upstream connections through Sunday afternoon, especially where the bands hit higher terrain. This may be where spots pick up the additional inch or so I discussed above Sunday afternoon.

At this same time, a healthier Huron connection (and better synoptic moisture) will affect NW PA; with a WNW to NW flow, the band may not edge as far west as the ARW has it (near Meadville), and may stay in central or eastern Erie and Crawford Counties. The NMM traditionally does not have as bad of a bias for placing bands too far southwest, and is a little farther east with that band. With strong winds that are gradually shifting, the ARW’s solution of stalling a single and extremely intense Huron band on Sunday may not be realistic. A more diffuse moderate to briefly heavy band that moves a little bit across NW PA seems more reasonable given the strong winds.

As we head into Sunday night, the inversion slowly lowers and moisture starts stripping away above about 4k feet. This sounding has just enough juice for maybe some light accumulations Sunday night, mainly driven by the extreme temp differential between the lake and 850mb still allowing for about 500 J/KG of lake induced CAPE under the inversion. With the winds in the low levels finally weakening below 30 knots and gaining a bit more of a westerly direction, this may try to favor lose organization of snow showers from the Cleveland metro east. A negative here is that high pressure building in from the west will likely shut off upstream connections into NE Ohio Sunday night. Overall, if a band does try to develop Sunday night, some spots may see another inch or two of snow, but nothing very substantial.

In NW PA the deep synoptic moisture will finally pull east Sunday evening, allowing for the steady orographic enhanced lake enhanced snow to taper. With that said, instability and moisture depth remain a little bit deeper, along with a possible Huron fetch that may not shift east into SW NY until Monday morning. This could allow some spots to squeak out another 2-4” in the higher terrain of NW PA Sunday night. I don’t expect another to see more than nominal addition accums in NE OH or more than an inch in NW PA on Monday.

So, all in all, this is a tough forecast. Many signs point towards a lot of lake enhanced/effect precipitation, including the favorable fetch, upstream connections (especially NW PA), very good moisture/instability, and orographic lift. The one negative is strong winds/wind shear limiting band organization until perhaps Sunday afternoon and Sunday night…by then the other good factors will start diminishing for NE OH and by Sunday night in NW PA. Another negative is warm ground and air temperatures. I suspect that once inland locales get a little snow down that with air temps falling to near freezing that ratios can increase to near 10:1 inland by later Saturday night and Sunday…especially in the higher terrain of NW PA. Near the lake temperatures may not get to freezing until Sunday night, keeping ratios much lower and constantly melting any snow that does stick. So, although some bursts may occur at times near the lake and accumulate a little, big accumulations are highly unlikely near the lake.

For NE Ohio, I figure the flow and terrain favor eastern Cuyahoga and most of Geauga County Saturday night. It appears that a good 12 hours or so of moderate snow is possible here. Again, with the lower ratios, especially at first, and likely lack of an organized, dominant band that drops a ton of snow at once, amounts will probably stay somewhat under control. With that said, such a long window of decent snows into Sunday morning leads me to believe that a few inches…IE 3-6”…are quite likely to fall in most of Geauga County through Sunday morning, especially in the higher terrain in central and northern portions of the county. Another inch or two of snow from snow showers Sunday afternoon and Sunday night could push totals over 6” and up to near 8” in the higher terrain of northern Geauga. How far south and west to extend the snow is tough, as the hi-res models really want to get a good portion of Medina, Summit, and Portage in on the act. With a strong WNW flow I do expect northern portions of these counties to get in the act Saturday night into early Sunday, but the isobar orientation along with typical hi-res model bias to place bands too far SW suggests that only the northern portions of these counties will get in the act. Normally, a prolonged WNW flow band into these areas can produce decent totals, but with a little bit less terrain here than farther east, moisture moving out faster in these areas, and a likely lack of a big band, I will keep amounts in these areas to 2-4”. I don’t expect much if any additional snow here after Sunday morning. If a better band does form, the secondary Snowbelt could see a locally higher amount under that band…but at this time that doesn’t look very likely. Due to a prolonged WNW flow off of Lake MI and strong winds carrying bands well inland, parts of the central highlands may see light accumulations as well. Only allowed an inch or two at the lakeshore and in spots that will be generous.

For NW PA, stronger orographic lift through the event and an additional 6-12 hours of favorable synoptic moisture along with Lake Huron moisture will allow for considerably higher totals. I’m looking at a 30 hour period of pretty good snow in the higher terrain of NW PA, with light to moderate snow showers lingering for several hours after that into early Monday before finally ending. Snow ratios in the higher terrain of NW PA should be a bit higher due to slightly colder temps and also better odds at quickly establishing a snow pack to build on. With the Huron band likely meandering and not being extremely intense, and still lower than optimal ratios, I struggle to see more than 18” or so as the jackpot in NW PA…but I do foresee a rather large area seeing at least a foot. If the Huron band can stall for a few hours, which again seems less than likely, then a local spots may see easily 2 feet of snow.

Here's my map:

[NEOH]

Great forecast ohweather.