MAIDEsNow Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Great write up OHweather! Just love coming here to get your and others input/analysis/info. After the worst Dec ever IMBY (9.6" of snow "beating" the 9.8" snow in Dec '11), I am selfishly hoping your 1-2 feet in a good chunk of Erie County comes to pass. We received 6.6" of snow from Sunday night into Monday evening - have had light pixie dust since including now. Hope much more is to come for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Picked around 1.4" last night. Great analysis OHWeather. It will be interesting to see how everything works out. As you mentioned, dry arctic air is never a good thing for seeing significant totals. Seems that you can get away with lackluster parameters when lake temps are warmer, but now that the lake has cooled, everything needs to come together perfectly to see high totals. Looking at the bufkit text output, both the GFS and NAM have winds coming around to 320 for about 9-12 hours starting tomorrow. The 320 fetch provides about 54 miles of open water in NE OH... less than optimal for heavy snows. With lake effect there are always some surprises so we'll see what happens. CLE seems to have exanded snowfall totals in their latest map. I'd be disappointed and surprised not to see 8"-10" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 Had about an inch, as expected. CLE had 0.09" inches liquid equivalent on the metar, but climate report shows only 0.04". That seems to happen quite a bit. Very odd to see the metar totals reduced in snow events, normally they under report and need to be beefed up. CLE is being too aggressive with snow totals tomorrow in my opinion, particularly for lake shore areas. I'll be shocked if more than 3" falls near the lake from downtown and points west. But as always with lake effect, anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Great writeup. Should be an exciting few days to get a decent snowpack going. More chances at the end of the week it looks like too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Had about an inch, as expected. CLE had 0.09" inches liquid equivalent on the metar, but climate report shows only 0.04". That seems to happen quite a bit. Very odd to see the metar totals reduced in snow events, normally they under report and need to be beefed up. CLE is being too aggressive with snow totals tomorrow in my opinion, particularly for lake shore areas. I'll be shocked if more than 3" falls near the lake from downtown and points west. But as always with lake effect, anything can happen. Trent - One positive for the immediate lakeshore is that there is already an established band over the lake.... which should further strengthen. That should be good for a few inches as it sags south, possibly more as troughs always take their time moving through. But yeah, once the strong NW winds set-up the heavier snows will move inland. We'll probably see the "green blob" until the drier air moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 A lot of ice managed to form on the lake last night. Very impressive considering it was ice free just 2 days ago. The western basin is closed for business, and slush is pushing into the central basin. Not sure how much this will affect tonight/tomorrow as the flow is primarily out of the NW. The ice will certainly limit heat/moisture flux. Hopefully the winds can push the slush around in the western part of the central basin. But I would count on much snowfall from Lorain west as the winds will be mostly moving over ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Yikes at that ice! There are still probably some holes so there will probably still be some heat/moisture flux from the western basin, but it won't be as strong. There's still a decent band hugging the Lake County shoreline and the instability isn't even that good right now, so I think we'll still be ok later. It'll be windy so the central basin can only freeze up so fast. I agree that CLE is a little aggressive with their amounts. Their advisory reads 4-6" with locally more, which I generally agree with for those counties, although their grids have a lot more as shown by the map posted above. It looks like they have a good amount of snow tonight across Lorain/Cuyahga/Geauga when the winds will be SW and causing any snow to hug the eastern lakeshore which adds probably 3" to those areas. With the dry air working in tomorrow, this strikes me as an event where the bulk of the snow falls in two bursts...one early tomorrow as the front drops south and another tomorrow evening as the winds become more WNW again. So there could be a lot of downtime late tomorrow morning and afternoon where it's just cold/windy with flurries. Looks like about 1.5" here from the clipper, and 2" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 I've been feeling quite pessimistic regarding this lake event. None of the BUF HiRes models show anything terribly noteworthy for the next 36 hours and the NMM and ARW aren't showing a great deal either. Not that these models are the be all end all with snow forecasting, but I'd feel more comfortable if one of these models was sniffing out larger 0.5"+ liquid equivalent totals in the traditional snow belt areas of NE Ohio. I'm hoping this is another case where the hires models aren't picking up on something. Regardless the morning commute on Wednesday should be rough, so any warnings and advisories will probably verify based on travel impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Ya I checked the wrfs earlier and didn't see much meaningful. I'm still holding out hope for a decent event before more of the lake freezes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I'm starting to feel a little less optimistic after seeing the ice cover. Not sure how much ice will be added tonight, but any additional coverage into the central basin will really affect the moisture flux. We need winds and waves to pick up asap. 6"+ would be a win around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 This snowfall map from CLE is a lot more realistic in terms of the heaviest snowfall placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I'm confident in a decent band into Lake/Ashtabula into NW PA tonight dropping 4-8" type amounts, with a nice squall dropping 2-4" on a short period as the front causes that band to pivot south during the early morning tomorrow. After that though I'm definitely worried about a period of very disorganized snow in the Cleveland metro before an increase in the evening. I think the band tonight into early tomorrow will be intense enough to get a lot of areas close to my low end totals, with any bands that can redevelop during the evening adding to that. The ARW is stingy and shows .1-.2" of liquid across the metro and a little more in parts of the Snowbelt... The NMM looks like a decent quarter to half inch in the traditional Snowbelt with close to 0.75" in Lake County. So we'll see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I'm confident in a decent band into Lake/Ashtabula into NW PA tonight dropping 4-8" type amounts, with a nice squall dropping 2-4" on a short period as the front causes that band to pivot south during the early morning tomorrow. After that though I'm definitely worried about a period of very disorganized snow in the Cleveland metro before an increase in the evening. I think the band tonight into early tomorrow will be intense enough to get a lot of areas close to my low end totals, with any bands that can redevelop during the evening adding to that. The ARW is stingy and shows .1-.2" of liquid across the metro and a little more in parts of the Snowbelt... The NMM looks like a decent quarter to half inch in the traditional Snowbelt with close to 0.75" in Lake County. So we'll see how it plays out Les is looking good upstream. Nice sign. The band is intensifying over Lake Erie as well. Should be an interesting morning. The CLe discussion basically mirrored your thoughts for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Dumping pretty well out there at the moment and has for several hours. Measured 6" exactly thus far. Keep on bringing it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Dumping pretty well out there at the moment and has for several hours. Measured 6" exactly thus far. Keep on bringing it!Great to hear! Snow starting to increase now across Cleveland...worst timing for the commute here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Well that band collapsed pretty quickly as it passed through. I only had 1" of snow from it, not surprising. Hopefully the east side did better overnight. Looking at radar I'm guessing maybe 2-3" for the eastern burbs? I guess we now wait to see what develops with the NW flow, but I'm doubtful lakeshore and western areas are coming in anywhere close to the 4" minimum in the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Bit surprised and disappointed, only another .6" fell as band quickly fell apart after 4am, so 6.6" overnight. Now have received 13.4" since Sunday night. We shall see what today brings, really not feeling it with the partly cloudy skies out there. Wonder if this will verify, seems a tad robust: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I came up with 3 -3.5" in several spots. Seems high...I'm wondering if there's some blown snow mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Picked up 2.5" last night. Must have fallen pretty quickly. We'll see what today brings... not feeling really good but hopefully the radar will improve. The lake huron band will be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I came up with 3 -3.5" in several spots. Seems high...I'm wondering if there's some blown snow mixed in. Not sure how far east of me you are... but wouldn't be surprised if you picked up a little more as the radar showed the heavier returns just to the east. I'm just west of snyder rd. off of bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Bit surprised and disappointed, only another .6" fell as band quickly fell apart after 4am, so 6.6" overnight. Now have received 13.4" since Sunday night. We shall see what today brings, really not feeling it with the partly cloudy skies out there. Wonder if this will verify, seems a tad robust: Congrats on the snow last night. You may be in the jackpot area today if the lake huron band sets-up over you... which is possible. Post a pic as the band comes through... I'm sure snowfall rates will be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 The Lake Huron connection band should prove to be quite impressive. It'll be interesting to see what kind of totals come out of it. For the rest of northern Ohio, I still think storm totals are way too aggressive. Lorain County is under an advisory for 4-8", unless a significant band develops there, that's going to bust hard. The snow maps out of CLE are showing 12"+ amounts in the eastern suburbs of Cuyahoga, I find it very hard to believe the 271 corridor is getting 10" today. Perhaps we'll be surprised, but I just haven't liked the way this was setting up since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 That band disappointed this morning. Somewhere between 1-2" here, and am not expecting much more. Maybe another inch or so later at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 A band is trying to take shape over the lake. If you look at the infrared satellite there is a connection upstream to lake michigan. Here's the latest CLE snowfall map through 1am tonight. Definitely seems high outside of where the lake huron band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The Lake Huron connection band should prove to be quite impressive. It'll be interesting to see what kind of totals come out of it. For the rest of northern Ohio, I still think storm totals are way too aggressive. Lorain County is under an advisory for 4-8", unless a significant band develops there, that's going to bust hard. The snow maps out of CLE are showing 12"+ amounts in the eastern suburbs of Cuyahoga, I find it very hard to believe the 271 corridor is getting 10" today. Perhaps we'll be surprised, but I just haven't liked the way this was setting up since yesterday. NW flow events with dry arctic air always seem to produce over aggressive forecasts with the best frequency out of any type of event. I think most of Cuyahoga will struggle to hit my 3-4" low end at this point. Short fetch plus dry air is a bad recipe, and I do wonder if the ice that developed limited the band this morning, or if it just moved too quick or what. Anyways, outside of the Huron connection I'm expecting maybe another inch here or there today and another inch or three tonight at this point. Just not enough moisture.The CLE snow map above runs through Friday evening, so you can take some out to get this event's forecast. Even so amounts may end up too high by a good bit. Edit: the one NEOH just posted is just for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Not sure how far east of me you are... but wouldn't be surprised if you picked up a little more as the radar showed the heavier returns just to the east. I'm just west of snyder rd. off of bell. You're actually within a mile or so. I'll go with the lower end. That band was moving at a good clip once it came inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Pretty good snow under this band despite fairly light returns. Unfortunately it's moving. We'll see if a consistent light to at times moderate snow can at least set up in the orographic lift areas inland and allow it to stay wintry looking today, even if amounts end up being light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Pretty good snow under this band despite fairly light returns. Unfortunately it's moving. We'll see if a consistent light to at times moderate snow can at least set up in the orographic lift areas inland and allow it to stay wintry looking today, even if amounts end up being light. We've had a few good bursts in Chagrin. Flake size was ok as well. The bands are migrating instead of staying in one place. To see the higher totals we'll need a band to lock on place. Considering the fetch I don't think that ice is the limiting factor. Once the fetch turns more westerly I do think the ice will play more of a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 We've had a few good bursts in Chagrin. Flake size was ok as well. The bands are migrating instead of staying in one place. To see the higher totals we'll need a band to lock on place. Considering the fetch I don't think that ice is the limiting factor. Once the fetch turns more westerly I do think the ice will play more of a role. Yeah, no ice bothering us right now, but I do think that played a big roll this morning when the winds were more west. I'm surprised how much of the lake froze so quickly. Ice from Toledo to Lorain really kills the fetch of open water for Cleveland...although we have seen better evens with more ice so idk. At least the Euro shows something 7-8 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Any possibility the bands quit moving around so much, or are the winds shifting too much? There's a clipper for tomorrow night also isn't there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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