Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

Absolutely fantastic early March weather! Looks like the majority of the rain might miss us too. 60's in the forecast for the next 10 days...though I'm sure it'll change.

 

Its great out there today. Sunny and close to 70. Looking forward to the nice weather. I'm sure we will get a few transient cold shots but hopefully the door is closed on this winter.

[dta1984]

Its great out there today. Sunny and close to 70. Looking forward to the nice weather. I'm sure we will get a few transient cold shots but hopefully the door is closed on this winter.

Temps really climbing since the rain stopped. Car said 65 on lunch. Can really notice the grass green-ing up, and starting to grow. If it can dry out, won't be long before we're cutting grass.

[NEOH]

Temps really climbing since the rain stopped. Car said 65 on lunch. Can really notice the grass green-ing up, and starting to grow. If it can dry out, won't be long before we're cutting grass.

 

It warmed up nicely outside. Glad the rain stopped... my yard is soaked. If this weather continues we will definitely be cutting soon. My grass really didn't go dormant this winter so it is looking really nice right now.

[OHweather]

Although it's still far out and may change, the pattern has consistently been shown to feature a robust -EPO (western Canada/Alaska ridge) and possibly a -NAO for the first week of April. That's something that can support a decent April snow in northern OH. It's possible the pattern doesn't end up favorable, or that the pattern ends up favorable but smaller details don't work out, but there's probably an elevated chance compared to normal for snow the first week of April up there. I'm farther south and don't have the benefit of lake effect precip here, so I don't really like my chances down here, but up there it's something to keep in mind. I'll be home April 1-3, so maybe I can see some flakes then

[Trent]

With the way March has progressed so far, I've forgotten climo says we should see another 6" yet this season.

I bet CLE finishes with a few more inches this year. If not their first inch stands at January 10th, with last inch on March 3rd. Not even 2 months of real accumulating snow.

[OHweather]

There's still time for it to change but the models remain locked and loaded on a pattern that would generally be favorable for robust LES next Sunday-Monday. If CLE escapes without an inch, it would be an incredibly short winter at CLE. Geauga County got accumulating snow in mid-November and almost seems like a shoe in to get some next weekend if the general pattern holds, shows you how dependent we are on the lake in NE Ohio.

I know some of you have moved on to Spring, which is understandable, it'll be April in a few days, but I'm selfishly hoping for some LES next Sunday before I head back to Athens.

[Trent]

I'll gladly take an April 2007 style lake effect event, but if it's just going to be a nuisance coating I'll pass.

As of now, for Cleveland proper, this is likely the second least snowiest season since 1870. CLE Hopkins will likely break their futility record, currently sitting at 25". I would guesstimate that lakeside/downtown is sitting at less than 20" on the year as a comparison to the pre-airport records. The second least snowiest winter downtown was 21.5" in 1931-32.

It will be interesting if any LES materializes next weekend and if it will end up effecting downtown or the airport or the primary snow belts. The lake is getting quite warm so I wonder how much it will modify the cold air.

[dta1984]

I'm with Trent, give me a significant event,or else I'll pass. The 60's and 70s at the beginning of the month have me hoping for spring. Tomorrow should be nice!

[OHweather]

It won't be significant snowfall wise...but Saturday afternoon and evening could be pretty wild. The models have an extremely potent shortwave moving through, causing a surface low to ride by just to our NE. It looks like a combination of very strong lift thanks to the shortwave and cold front trailing the low could cause convective showers to develop along the cold front Saturday PM as it blows through northern OH. With 850mb temps around -3C along the front there could be small hail or graupel along with some lightning with those showers. Behind the front temps quickly become cold enough for snow. The models hint at lingering lift, probably due to another wind shift dropping down west of the low, along with a very deep unstable layer and some instability off the lake Saturday evening, which could lead to a period of off and on and intense snow showers, before the activity becomes more disorganized and lighter by late Saturday night. A little lake effect could persist into Sunday but it looks disorganized by that point.

The wind fields Saturday late afternoon and evening behind the cold front look very intense. A very strong pressure gradient and strong cold air advection is a good combination for strong winds, and the NAM and GFS both have a period of 50 knot or stronger winds just off the ground Saturday evening. Any convective showers along the front could produce strong gusts, and then there may be a period of very gusty winds behind the front. We'll see how the models change...but as it looks now, the combination of snow squalls and wind gusts possibly pushing 60MPH near the lake and 50MPH inland could create quite a scene. I could see the higher terrain making out with 1-3" of snow by Sunday morning. Not the most snow but these very dynamic systems are always fun.

[NEOH]

It won't be significant snowfall wise...but Saturday afternoon and evening could be pretty wild. The models have an extremely potent shortwave moving through, causing a surface low to ride by just to our NE. It looks like a combination of very strong lift thanks to the shortwave and cold front trailing the low could cause convective showers to develop along the cold front Saturday PM as it blows through northern OH. With 850mb temps around -3C along the front there could be small hail or graupel along with some lightning with those showers. Behind the front temps quickly become cold enough for snow. The models hint at lingering lift, probably due to another wind shift dropping down west of the low, along with a very deep unstable layer and some instability off the lake Saturday evening, which could lead to a period of off and on and intense snow showers, before the activity becomes more disorganized and lighter by late Saturday night. A little lake effect could persist into Sunday but it looks disorganized by that point.

The wind fields Saturday late afternoon and evening behind the cold front look very intense. A very strong pressure gradient and strong cold air advection is a good combination for strong winds, and the NAM and GFS both have a period of 50 knot or stronger winds just off the ground Saturday evening. Any convective showers along the front could produce strong gusts, and then there may be a period of very gusty winds behind the front. We'll see how the models change...but as it looks now, the combination of snow squalls and wind gusts possibly pushing 60MPH near the lake and 50MPH inland could create quite a scene. I could see the higher terrain making out with 1-3" of snow by Sunday morning. Not the most snow but these very dynamic systems are always fun.

 

Seems like we have had a lot of high winds over the past year. Today is no exception. I am constantly picking up branches and limbs.  Hopefully Saturday is winters last gasp.

[dta1984]

Noticed the discussion from cle mentions they issued a "snow advisory " for nwpa. Didn't those go away years ago? Somebody must miss them lol.

2-4" in my fc tonight.

[dta1984]

Getting several rumbles of thunder...moderate snow, big flakes.

[dta1984]

Measured 3" of heavy wet snow. It's been almost a month exactly since the last snowfall. Hard to believe March was so lame.

[OHweather]

Had a tad under 2" here. Some 3-4" amounts in parts of southern Summit, Stark and Wayne Counties. Not really a noteworthy amount of snow but it fell quickly and was accompanied by thunder and lightning which made it sort of fun.

[Trent]

It will be interesting to see how much, if any, snow accumulates this week during the cold snap.

Saturday night's thundersnow was probably the best thundersnow I've experienced. Lots of lightning in rapid succession.

It helped that the snowfall occurred after sunset for accumulations. This time of year you need intense rates and nightfall to really get snow to stick. But minutes after it stopped, the snow started melting here from the ground up. The pavement was covered in snow during the squall, but 15 minutes later it had completely melted from paved surfaces, even with air temperatures falling into the 20s.

[dta1984]

It will be interesting to see how much, if any, snow accumulates this week during the cold snap.

Saturday night's thundersnow was probably the best thundersnow I've experienced. Lots of lightning in rapid succession.

It helped that the snowfall occurred after sunset for accumulations. This time of year you need intense rates and nightfall to really get snow to stick. But minutes after it stopped, the snow started melting here from the ground up. The pavement was covered in snow during the squall, but 15 minutes later it had completely melted from paved surfaces, even with air temperatures falling into the 20s.

Ya driveway was covered here until the morning, and quickly cleared.

GFS still shows several inches of snow in the next week.... Have to think some lake effect might happen with the cold shots too.

[OHweather]

I said this about 6 days before this past weekend's cold snap and it promptly trended milder, so at the risk of jinxing another cold snap, from 4-5 days out, the cold air for Friday-Saturday looks pretty damn impressive and the potential seems to be there for notable lake effect for the time of year. The heart of the upper trough moving overhead Friday night into Saturday would, if it verifies, provide for a period of extreme instability and a pretty moist atmosphere. This looks like a short fetch event so significant amounts may be confined to where any upstream lake connections set up. Looks like a pretty potent vort max rides through the Ohio Valley Friday evening which may add some synoptic lift to aid the lake effect. I could see a setup like this producing half a foot of snow somewhere in NE OH or NW PA. The airmass will be so cold that any snow that falls at night would probably be pretty high ratio. During the day it may be harder to accumulate well, although highs on Saturday may struggle to hit 30, so if you get accumulations to start Friday night they may continue during the day Saturday.

 

Anyways, here's what the GFS looks like in BUFKIT for Saturday morning. Can't get much better looking than that in December, so we'll see how much this changes

 

[Trent]

I'm banking on a late March/early April quick hitting synoptic event for CLE that drops 6" and starts melting right away. Just enough to make the winter less futile, just enough to annoy everyone who thought spring was here, and too late in the season to get any enjoyment out of it.

And here we are in early April with a potential 6" snow storm at the end of the week. Won't be hard for this to be CLE's largest snowstorm of the season.

[OHweather]

And here we are in early April with a potential 6" snow storm at the end of the week. Won't be hard for this to be CLE's largest snowstorm of the season.

This one is looking interesting up there for sure. The clipper may be accompanied by a narrow band of moderate synoptic snow, and there still looks to then be a period of lingering decent lake effect into much of Saturday behind the clipper. If the clipper snow hits northern OH, the combo of that and the LES could push some areas to over half a foot. Most of this snow falls Friday night so there shouldn't be much trouble accumulating, and ratios could climb decently by late Friday night and Saturday morning.

[OHweather]

NE Ohio looks to get dry slotted for several hours tomorrow evening, after perhaps a quick burst of snow along the cold front early in the evening, but conditions still look good for moderate to even briefly heavy lake enhanced snow late Friday night into Saturday as wrap-around synoptic snow wraps in. Lake-induced instability will be moderate, with inversion heights above 10k feet and deep moisture to over 15k feet through most of Saturday morning. The flow will be NNW, however Lake Huron moisture/synoptic moisture should keep good snow fairly widespread. The heaviest amounts will be in the higher terrain, where I can envision several hours of near 1" per hour snow occurring. My first thought is the lakeshore struggles and only sees a couple inches, but the higher terrain could very well see up to 6" or so. It will be windy, so it could be a very wintry scene Saturday morning with a good amount of falling snow and blowing snow.

[NEOH]

NE Ohio looks to get dry slotted for several hours tomorrow evening, after perhaps a quick burst of snow along the cold front early in the evening, but conditions still look good for moderate to even briefly heavy lake enhanced snow late Friday night into Saturday as wrap-around synoptic snow wraps in. Lake-induced instability will be moderate, with inversion heights above 10k feet and deep moisture to over 15k feet through most of Saturday morning. The flow will be NNW, however Lake Huron moisture/synoptic moisture should keep good snow fairly widespread. The heaviest amounts will be in the higher terrain, where I can envision several hours of near 1" per hour snow occurring. My first thought is the lakeshore struggles and only sees a couple inches, but the higher terrain could very well see up to 6" or so. It will be windy, so it could be a very wintry scene Saturday morning with a good amount of falling snow and blowing snow.

 

What a start to April this has been. The good news is that the snow melts quickly. These early and late season snows are always interesting.

[dta1984]

I'm game for one last event. Only need 1.5" more to make this month snowier than November, December and March. Also should top 70" for the year. Crazy year..

[OHweather]

Wonder if you Geauga folk will wake up to 2" this morning. Been decent snow much of the night in spots.

[Trent]

Wonder if you Geauga folk will wake up to 2" this morning. Been decent snow much of the night in spots.

Just a dusting here, but even CLE had 2" over night. In fact they even had a 1 inch per hour observation on a METAR last night at 8pm.

[dta1984]

Wonder if you Geauga folk will wake up to 2" this morning. Been decent snow much of the night in spots.

Right at 3" on my deck. Nice surprise!

[NEOH]

Right at 3" on my deck. Nice surprise!

 

Same here. A little less on the grass and not much on the pavement. Nice winter wonderland scene. We'll see what tonight brings. 

[MAIDEsNow]

2.0" on the button IMBY. Most likely to add more tonight into tomorrow and possibly Sunday night. Great stuff for hockey playoffs this weekend (Go Otters!), but not so much for setting up an amusement park...

[dta1984]

Same here. A little less on the grass and not much on the pavement. Nice winter wonderland scene. We'll see what tonight brings.

That's the nice part about late season snows....the driveway usually stays clear lol. Though...in heavy snow rates at night I'm sure it'll accumulate.

[OHweather]

Nice little event last night turned into. Looking at the newer models right now and it looks like they've gone from pivoting the clipper snow band over the lake to doing it right over the central lakeshore. Someone could get over 8" if that happens. The downside here is that's a narrow band, and if it slips any farther south Cleveland and Geauga County see much less snow.

[Trent]

The NAM has a very nice 8" swath of snow across the most populated areas of Northern Ohio. It'll probably be nowcast time, but wow if this ends up being CLE's largest storm of the season AND the largest of the past few years. I'm a little concerned about being close to the lake, but a few mile drive inland should make all the difference between winter wonderland and slushy grass.