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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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Do any of you have an idea on how much eastern Cuyahoga County got? The only spotter report is 11.5" thus far in Solon. I'm going to try to map the snow totals at some point when I get the time and that hole there is really annoying.

 

And LPR is down to 1/4 mile visibility in that Lorain County band...not bad! A few areas may get 3 or 4" more today if the bands don't move too quickly.

 

My co-worker was in both Shaker and Beachwood this morning. He said they had about half of the snow that we have in Chagrin. Not very specific but I think accums were definitely lower in that area.

 

Returns seems to picking-up over the lake. We just had a nice whiteout in Chagrin.

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Thanks.  How much do you have there?   You and I usually feast or more often famine as I think you are south of the lake no?

We both need some northerly wind component or for the most part we're getting nothing of note.

 

We've had around 14"-15" for the event. Yes, it is feast or famine around here. DTA and I live very close... We definitely need a WNW to NW wind for significant snows around here. We are on the SW edge of the snowbelt with a decent elevation of 1,200 ft or so.

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We've had around 14"-15" for the event. Yes, it is feast or famine around here. DTA and I live very close... We definitely need a WNW to NW wind for significant snows around here. We are on the SW edge of the snowbelt with a decent elevation of 1,200 ft or so.

Chesterland had around 13-15" since it all started on Monday.  Snow depth has settled to around 8".  We will be slammed by next week's storm.  How do I know?  Because I'll be in California all next week. :P

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Chesterland had around 13-15" since it all started on Monday.  Snow depth has settled to around 8".  We will be slammed by next week's storm.  How do I know?  Because I'll be in California all next week. :P

 

Yeah... the fluff settles quickly. Best snowpack of the year out this way though. Thanks for taking one for the team... enjoy CA.

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Could see a nice burst of snow with the arctic front and a wide open lake. Winds come around from 320 -330. Not enough to get a huron connection. W PA should do well.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. SWWINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONTADVANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDSFAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE LAPSE RATES CLIMB. THE FIRST BAND WILL LIKELY CLIP LAKESHORE ERIE/ASHTABULA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITHPERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCHES IF THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE. THE NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGIONFRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FOR ONGOING LAKE EFFECT. LOOK FOR HURON BANDS TO ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS. THE BEST ESTIMATESFOR THE EVENT IS AREAS IN ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD OF 8-12". OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND ANINCH OR LESS AS THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE PUSHING 20 TO 1 AT TIMES SO SNOW AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLYACCUMULATE WITH BANDS.
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Could see a nice burst of snow with the arctic front and a wide open lake. Winds come around from 320 -330. Not enough to get a huron connection. W PA should do well.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. SWWINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONTADVANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDSFAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE LAPSE RATES CLIMB. THE FIRST BAND WILL LIKELY CLIP LAKESHORE ERIE/ASHTABULA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITHPERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCHES IF THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE. THE NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGIONFRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FOR ONGOING LAKE EFFECT. LOOK FOR HURON BANDS TO ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS. THE BEST ESTIMATESFOR THE EVENT IS AREAS IN ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD OF 8-12". OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND ANINCH OR LESS AS THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE PUSHING 20 TO 1 AT TIMES SO SNOW AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLYACCUMULATE WITH BANDS.

 

Round 2 in the cards this weekend?  If it's 320-330 up here I may miss this one to the west.   I do live on the west side of the city, so I may luck out....

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My general thinking is a short duration of heavy snows late tomorrow afternoon and evening followed by lighter multi-bands with lower ratios due to the cold Saturday into Saturday night. My early guess is 3-6" in the higher terrain from Medina east through the Snowbelt with 6-10" where the Huron connection is (most likely eastern Ashtabula or NW PA). Amounts are marginal but the burst of heavy snow late tomorrow and falling temps/gusty winds tomorrow night into Saturday should and "hopefully" will prompt advisories from Lorain and Medina Counties east.

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My general thinking is a short duration of heavy snows late tomorrow afternoon and evening followed by lighter multi-bands with lower ratios due to the cold Saturday into Saturday night. My early guess is 3-6" in the higher terrain from Medina east through the Snowbelt with 6-10" where the Huron connection is (most likely eastern Ashtabula or NW PA). Amounts are marginal but the burst of heavy snow late tomorrow and falling temps/gusty winds tomorrow night into Saturday should and "hopefully" will prompt advisories from Lorain and Medina Counties east.

This kind of snuck up. 3-6" sounds good.

Euro showing us love for next week.

I'm going to add .75" to my totals for snow that fell after I left this morning.

Lake effect = 15.75"

Since Monday = 18.75"

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Very nice event this ended up being. Adding up all the pieces and parts over 60 hours gave me a tally of 7.4" of snow since Tuesday morning. Not bad for a 60 hour snow total. Granted, there's only about 3-4" of that due to settling, but a nice total nonetheless. 

 

Now if we can only reel in the Tuesday storm ...

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My co-worker was in both Shaker and Beachwood this morning. He said they had about half of the snow that we have in Chagrin. Not very specific but I think accums were definitely lower in that area.

Returns seems to picking-up over the lake. We just had a nice whiteout in Chagrin.

I'm guessing those areas got 8-10" total based on the 7" in Shaker through 5pm Weds and radar from the rest of the event. They only got hit with the band for about an hour last night so I think that's reasonable.
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Surprised no advisories issued other than ashtabula county. They will definitely do well if the huron band can set-up... but you would think that lake and geauga would get in the action as well. Interesting that BUF has warnings out for all of WNY which typically doesn't do well with NW wind events given the very short fetch.

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Lk6Bsu.png

Here's my thinking on amounts. Very impressive snow squall potential along the front. It'll be quick moving, but will hit during the commute and may be very intense...a little lightning wouldn't shock me...so it could be nasty. Lake effect conditions with a NW wind are very favorable through about midnight, so I'd expect disorganized but still intense squalls to affect Lorain and Medina east through midnight, with intensity and coverage decreasing some after midnight as drier air moves in and as it gets cold enough to limit snow ratios. Some snow showers will continue through Saturday but dry air/short fetch/potentially still iffy ratios may keep additional amounts light. There's potential for a few to several inches in the higher terrain of the Snowbelt with potentially moderate to heavy amounts where the Lake Huron band sets up. I'm not impressed with the setup near the lakeshore after the quick early-evening squall. I also don't agree with (nor am I surprised about) CLE not issuing advisories west through the entire metro area with a burst of heavy snow and wind during the commute and very dicey conditions continuing after the commute for several hours with lake effect squalls and gusty winds. Amounts as is should at least get close to advisory criteria and the low visibility/blowing snow/falling temps/timing should be compounding factors that would push many over the edge in terms of issuing advisories.

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3.1" in about 45 minutes when the squall moved thru last night. I saw a social media picture from Mt. Pleasant Ski Resort in Edinboro last night, about 5 miles to my east / south, claiming 6" in a half hour - not sure about that. 

 

Then unfortunately the LES was pretty much a no show. 1.0" overnight, 4.1" total. 

 

My least favorite weather currently - cold, dry, breezy.

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