Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

That difference must be because of the different surfaces measured. I know at the beginning, the snow didn't accumulate much on my driveway.

I will have to double check when I get back home, but I think I was at 3" before today.

 

It was definitely poor measuring on my part. Didn't have a chance to clear the deck last night. Thanks for looking into the totals.

[Trent]

Wow. Look at that band over the lake. If that drops over land today there are going to be some serious accumulations with that.

Looks like some snow starting to fire outside the band in eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga.

[dta1984]

Wow. Look at that band over the lake. If that drops over land today there are going to be some serious accumulations with that.

Looks like some snow starting to fire outside the band in eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga.

Hopefully it doesn't race through.

Yep snowing nicely in Solon.

[OHweather]

I'm surprised the winds shifted almost due SW and pushed that band north. There's a wind shift with the trough just hitting the northern shore of the lake which will slowly push the band back south. We'll see how long it takes to make it inland and how quickly it moves.

[Trent]

I'm surprised the winds shifted almost due SW and pushed that band north.

Story of the past 3 winters I'm still waiting for that elusive multi day NW wind event, seems almost impossible in NE Ohio anymore to get that wind flow.

I do remain optimistic for some decent accumulations later today. Should at least be some nice rates, even if short lived in spots.

[OHweather]

Story of the past 3 winters I'm still waiting for that elusive multi day NW wind event, seems almost impossible in NE Ohio anymore to get that wind flow.

I do remain optimistic for some decent accumulations later today. Should at least be some nice rates, even if short lived in spots.

I'd contend WNW is best since that's the best flow for a single band across a good portion of Cuyahoga and Geauga. NW can be good too especially in the higher terrain for sure. These events where the winds are modeled to be just about west but end up SW are annoying though. The band already is drifting south, I just hope it can maintain itself as it moves into the Cleveland area in an hour or so.

[featherwx]

Looks like Lorain is getting the western tail of the band. Jealous of you all to the east but it's definitely better than nothing.

[London snowsquall]

Story of the past 3 winters I'm still waiting for that elusive multi day NW wind event, seems almost impossible in NE Ohio anymore to get that wind flow.

I do remain optimistic for some decent accumulations later today. Should at least be some nice rates, even if short lived in spots.

 

It's getting kinda ridiculous.   To date with this event,  the London airport has recorded SWerly winds for most of the past 24 hours with a lone hrly observation of WNW.   It's been snowing for the past 24 hours and I'm not sure we have 3 inches of accumulation.

Pretty lame considering this was supposed to be multi-period NWerlys.   Maybe still to come??

[dta1984]

Updated map from cle extends everything west. 12-18 now almost to the chagrin area, 8-12 near downtown.

http://www.weather.gov/cle/Winter_Weather

Edit: Cuyahoga with an advisory now

[NEOH]

Updated map from cle extends everything west. 12-18 now almost to the chagrin area, 8-12 near downtown.

http://www.weather.gov/cle/Winter_Weather

Edit: Cuyahoga with an advisory now

 

If that band can maintain its structure rather than falling apart over land there are going to be some high totals today. I may be wrong... but the wind shift doesn't look that severe so perhaps the band will just realign on the WNW'erly flow.

[OHweather]

If that band can maintain its structure rather than falling apart over land there are going to be some high totals today. I may be wrong... but the wind shift doesn't look that severe so perhaps the band will just realign on the WNW'erly flow.

I suspect it'll try to realign and maintain. Here it comes...

[Portastorm]

Nice to see the Lake Erie snow machine operating efficiently.  Almost makes me wish I was back in Mentor.  Almost. 

[dta1984]

Pretty much a whiteout downtown.

Click on the downtown cam;

http://www.newsnet5.com/live-cameras

[LakeEffectOH]

That band looks pretty intense...Picked up about 5" last night.  Have around 6" on the ground.  Probably a total of 8" so far with 2 of those inches lost to compression.

[NEOH]

I suspect it'll try to realign and maintain. Here it comes...

 

Slowly but surely. Looks like another decent band forming on the north side of the lake. Wonder if the band coming through doesn't dissipate with the new band forming becoming the primary and moving south.

[BuffaloWeather]

That is an awesome band across your area and looks to continue until tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised at some 2' totals. Congrats guys!

[OHweather]

Looks like the band may stabilize now across Cuyahoga and Geauga. Not as much of a firehose as it was over the lake but rates should still be 1-2" an hour

[dta1984]

Looks like the band may stabilize now across Cuyahoga and Geauga. Not as much of a firehose as it was over the lake but rates should still be 1-2" an hour

It's pound town out there. Probably 2" Hr rates.

[NEOH]

Radar appearance has become much more cellular... maybe because of peak heating in mid-Feb? Hopefully things can consolidate again tonight. Had a few heavy bursts of snow with the band but it has dissipated.

[BuffaloWeather]

Radar appearance has become much more cellular... maybe because of peak heating in mid-Feb? Hopefully things can consolidate again tonight. Had a few heavy bursts of snow with the band but it has dissipated.

Lots of shear right now. Later tonight that should relax into tomorrow.

[featherwx]

Currently experiencing whiteout conditions-if only the band overhead would stall out...

[OHweather]

Convergence has weakened some as the trough has pushed inland and there may be a bit more shear, which may also help explain why the snow is less organized than earlier. The trough extends across central Lorain, southern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga Counties. The winds gain a slightly more northerly component over the next few hours so the trough may wiggle south a little farther. A good upstream connection into the primary Snowbelt and weak convergence with the trough is keeping a somewhat more focused area of snow going but it's too disorganized for rates of more than 1" per hour right now. With a good upstream connection into the primary Snowbelt, decent snow showers should continue all afternoon.

 

The shortwave moves by this evening, increasing instability and moisture as well as adding a brief period of larger scale lift. The winds on land may back a bit this evening as temps drop away from the lake which could shift the trough back north a bit and intensify convergence. The combination of an upstream connection continuing...a very deep layer of instability with equilibrium heights rising to near 10k feet...good ambient moisture...exceptional snow ratios and strong convergence may focus a very heavy band this evening, and it could affect parts of Lorain/Cuyahoga/Geauga Counties. I could see rates briefly maxing out at 3-4" per hour if this band can develop. Later tonight winds do go more NW which should push the convergence south into Medina/Summit/Portage and cause any bands to become more multi-banded and less organized. Moisture decreases some later tonight so with the short fetch better snows should become more localized in any upstream connections with the heaviest in the higher terrain. A three lake connection from Superior-Michigan-Erie still looks to possibly remain in the Cleveland metro and adjacent primary and secondary Snowbelt later tonight into Thursday morning.

 

On Thursday the winds slowly back to the WNW and W before going SW Thursday night. Instability remains moderate on Thursday but moisture decreases some more. Increasing convergence and some upstream moisture continuing to pass through may allow some moderate snow showers to continue in the primary belt but they may not be extremely organized.

 

Am thinking additional amounts through this afternoon of 1-3" more due to the disorganized but still intense nature of the snow showes. Locations well south of the lake could get an inch or two as well as decent snow showers are occurring well inland as expected. This evening through tonight I am becoming more confident that 4-8" will fall across parts of Cuyahoga and Geauga, with 4" amounts possible in parts of Lorain, northern Medina, northern Summit and northern Portage as well due to a potentially intense band this evening followed by multi-bands with the heaviest bands persisting where the upstream connection develops. The winds look pretty steady and well aligned for a time late tonight into early Thursday so it wouldn't shock me if local overnight totals of up to 10" occur wherever the upstream connection develops later tonight if it can lock in. Maybe another 1-4" in the primary Snowbelt on Thursday. Overall given the 2-6" that fell last night in northern/eastern Cuyahoga, Lake and Geauga (with locally up to 8" in Conneaut where the band briefly sat this morning) and forecast additional amounts I think the forecast is reasonably on track...with the exception of Ashtabula lakeshore where amounts locally will be higher than my top end. It's possible that 12" total amounts sneak into more of eastern Cuyahoga County, especially in the higher terrain.

[Guru Of Reason]

Looks like about 3 or 4 inches fell in DT Cleveland.  Definitely an overperformer, so far.  Even had a squall move in midday with visibility down to a block.  

[NEOH]

Convergence has weakened some as the trough has pushed inland and there may be a bit more shear, which may also help explain why the snow is less organized than earlier. The trough extends across central Lorain, southern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga Counties. The winds gain a slightly more northerly component over the next few hours so the trough may wiggle south a little farther. A good upstream connection into the primary Snowbelt and weak convergence with the trough is keeping a somewhat more focused area of snow going but it's too disorganized for rates of more than 1" per hour right now. With a good upstream connection into the primary Snowbelt, decent snow showers should continue all afternoon.

 

The shortwave moves by this evening, increasing instability and moisture as well as adding a brief period of larger scale lift. The winds on land may back a bit this evening as temps drop away from the lake which could shift the trough back north a bit and intensify convergence. The combination of an upstream connection continuing...a very deep layer of instability with equilibrium heights rising to near 10k feet...good ambient moisture...exceptional snow ratios and strong convergence may focus a very heavy band this evening, and it could affect parts of Lorain/Cuyahoga/Geauga Counties. I could see rates briefly maxing out at 3-4" per hour if this band can develop. Later tonight winds do go more NW which should push the convergence south into Medina/Summit/Portage and cause any bands to become more multi-banded and less organized. Moisture decreases some later tonight so with the short fetch better snows should become more localized in any upstream connections with the heaviest in the higher terrain. A three lake connection from Superior-Michigan-Erie still looks to possibly remain in the Cleveland metro and adjacent primary and secondary Snowbelt later tonight into Thursday morning.

 

On Thursday the winds slowly back to the WNW and W before going SW Thursday night. Instability remains moderate on Thursday but moisture decreases some more. Increasing convergence and some upstream moisture continuing to pass through may allow some moderate snow showers to continue in the primary belt but they may not be extremely organized.

 

Am thinking additional amounts through this afternoon of 1-3" more due to the disorganized but still intense nature of the snow showes. Locations well south of the lake could get an inch or two as well as decent snow showers are occurring well inland as expected. This evening through tonight I am becoming more confident that 4-8" will fall across parts of Cuyahoga and Geauga, with 4" amounts possible in parts of Lorain, northern Medina, northern Summit and northern Portage as well due to a potentially intense band this evening followed by multi-bands with the heaviest bands persisting where the upstream connection develops. The winds look pretty steady and well aligned for a time late tonight into early Thursday so it wouldn't shock me if local overnight totals of up to 10" occur wherever the upstream connection develops later tonight if it can lock in. Maybe another 1-4" in the primary Snowbelt on Thursday. Overall given the 2-6" that fell last night in northern/eastern Cuyahoga, Lake and Geauga (with locally up to 8" in Conneaut where the band briefly sat this morning) and forecast additional amounts I think the forecast is reasonably on track...with the exception of Ashtabula lakeshore where amounts locally will be higher than my top end. It's possible that 12" total amounts sneak into more of eastern Cuyahoga County, especially in the higher terrain.

 

Thanks for the update. Snow has really picked-up in Chagrin. Looking forward to see what happens tonight.

[zero26800]

Anyone have a prediction for the Akron area? I'm seeing some forecasts throw out 5-8" total now. I really don't buy it.... that seems a bit steep.

[LakeEffectOH]

Radar looks kind of meh now with popcorn snow showers.

[NEOH]

Radar looks kind of meh now with popcorn snow showers.

 

A good amount of those snowshowers have come through Chagrin with complete whiteout conditions. Pretty impressive. Hopefully a solid band can get going this evening.

 

I do think sun angle plays a role with LES this time of the year. Basically the same sun angle as late October. Seems like once evening hits things start coming together again.

[BuffaloWeather]

A good amount of those snowshowers have come through Chagrin with complete whiteout conditions. Pretty impressive. Hopefully a solid band can get going this evening.

 

I do think sun angle plays a role with LES this time of the year. Basically the same sun angle as late October. Seems like once evening hits things start coming together again.

 

It really isn't the sun angle yet. By March the suns angle starts to play a big role. One of the Tugs biggest event ever was Feb 3rd-12th 2007. 143" in 10 days.

[OHweather]

A good amount of those snowshowers have come through Chagrin with complete whiteout conditions. Pretty impressive. Hopefully a solid band can get going this evening.

I do think sun angle plays a role with LES this time of the year. Basically the same sun angle as late October. Seems like once evening hits things start coming together again.

I think the biggest issue today was the first trough dropped south and shear increased during the afternoon. Those factors will disrupt a band any time of year so it's tough to pin it on sun angle. Either way...looks like a band may be developing over the western basin. If anything decently organized can develop it'll rip really good.

[OHweather]

LSR of 5" in 6 hours from South Madison and a 24 hour total of 7" in Shaker Heights