Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[Trent]

Satellite today shows that a lot of ice melted between Toledo and the Erie Islands.

Incredible that we've yet to have a legitimate storm to track this season. Winter 2011/2012 seems like a winter wonderland in comparison to this year.

If CLE had the 10th snowiest February, March, AND April they'd still finish over 10 inches below normal on the season. While I wasn't expecting normal snowfall this winter, at this point way below normal is pretty much a lock.

[LakeEffectOH]

Satellite today shows that a lot of ice melted between Toledo and the Erie Islands.

Incredible that we've yet to have a legitimate storm to track this season. Winter 2011/2012 seems like a winter wonderland in comparison to this year.

If CLE had the 10th snowiest February, March, AND April they'd still finish over 10 inches below normal on the season. While I wasn't expecting normal snowfall this winter, at this point way below normal is pretty much a lock.

...Pretty ugly,  ECM ensembles (0z) showing another major storm for mid atl to sne towards the end.  Another storm to our west...For the most part, the NEOH snowstorm shield holds strong as it has since Feb. 2013.

[NEOH]

Incredible that we've yet to have a legitimate storm to track this season. Winter 2011/2012 seems like a winter wonderland in comparison to this year.

If CLE had the 10th snowiest February, March, AND April they'd still finish over 10 inches below normal on the season. While I wasn't expecting normal snowfall this winter, at this point way below normal is pretty much a lock.

 

Doubtful we'll come anywhere near 60" out this way... where around 100" is normal. And you are right... we really haven't been in the game for any appreciable storms.

 

Looks like 1" to possibly 3" tonight. Given the way this winter has gone I'll take the under. With February around the corner I'm starting to look forward to Spring.

[LakeEffectOH]

Doubtful we'll come anywhere near 60" out this way... where around 100" is normal. And you are right... we really haven't been in the game for any appreciable storms.

 

Looks like 1" to possibly 3" tonight. Given the way this winter has gone I'll take the under. With February around the corner I'm starting to look forward to Spring.

I think the 2nd half of Feb well into March will be the best part of this winter.  Unfortunately, it is also the end part of this winter.  Hopefully our luck will change. 

[OHweather]

Can't sugar coat the 8.4" CLE is sitting at so far. Pitiful

[NEOH]

I think the 2nd half of Feb well into March will be the best part of this winter.  Unfortunately, it is also the end part of this winter.  Hopefully our luck will change. 

 

That would be awful. I'm around 26" for the season so far. You folks just north probably have twice as much.

 

Picked up an inch last night.

[London snowsquall]

That would be awful. I'm around 26" for the season so far. You folks just north probably have twice as much.

 

Picked up an inch last night.

 

Only 20" for the season across the lake in London as of yesterday alto' we are picking up some good stuff now on NW winds.   If winds stay NW for a few hours as fcst maybe we can get a bit more.  NW winds might help you guys too.

[NEOH]

Only 20" for the season across the lake in London as of yesterday alto' we are picking up some good stuff now on NW winds.   If winds stay NW for a few hours as fcst maybe we can get a bit more.  NW winds might help you guys too.

 

Finally a NW wind... but it is transient unfortunately. The snow is fairly light around here even under the heavier returns. Hopefully we'll cash in on a good LES event before winter winds down. The one positive thing about the upcoming rain and warmth is that lake erie won't build any more ice cover. You probably don't have the concern as much off of Huron.

[MAIDEsNow]

2.6" overnight. Snow+ at the moment IMBY, prob 5" for "event".

Posters in western new York thread are liking the possibility of extended LES event next week after warmup. Maybe we can cash in...

[dta1984]

Doubtful we'll come anywhere near 60" out this way... where around 100" is normal. And you are right... we really haven't been in the game for any appreciable storms.

Looks like 1" to possibly 3" tonight. Given the way this winter has gone I'll take the under. With February around the corner I'm starting to look forward to Spring.

Ya I'm about done with these 1-2" snowfalls.

The optimistic side of me says; the past few years we have had no problem doing 25-30" per month. So...if February and March can turn around to that, we may end up near 80"... We saw how easily the northern sections added 20-30" in a week.

Pessimistic side says; this year is nothing like the others. Lets get this record low snowfall winter out of the way and on to Spring lol.

[NEOH]

Ya I'm about done with these 1-2" snowfalls.

The optimistic side of me says; the past few years we have had no problem doing 25-30" per month. So...if February and March can turn around to that, we may end up near 80"... We saw how easily the northern sections added 20-30" in a week.

Pessimistic side says; this year is nothing like the others. Lets get this record low snowfall winter out of the way and on to Spring lol.

 

We can certainly make up a lot of ground quickly with a multi-day LES event. What concerns me is that the lake is hovering just around freezing. One decent cold shot and there will be a lot of ice cover. We already saw that with the last event. Synoptic snows seem really hard to come by lately. It has been a downer of a winter and I'm about ready to close the books on it.

[Trent]

There was an article in the Cleveland Plain Dealer that said, since 1950 at the airport, there's never been a winter with this little snow at CLE before through the end of January.

This really has been a clunker of a winter so far. Previous clunkers of 2011/2012, 2001/2002, and 1997/1998 can't even compare to this disaster of a winter. Max snow depth at CLE this winter is a pathetic 2".

If we don't see any appreciable snowfall by the 10th of March, I'll be ready for spring.

[OHweather]

The only good news is that after all this wind/wamrth/rain coming up the lake will be open when all this cold moves in starting at the end of the week. That won't last long so hopefully any accompanying lake effect doesn't go towards NY. I didn't have high hopes for this winter but it's been amazingly futile so far.

[NEOH]

Its down to a crisp 48 degrees out there. Brrrr. The warm temps and winds had to have wiped away an ice on the lake. Next weeks looks interesting... but could be a back-breaker as well. Wouldn't be a good set-up with a low NW of us providing a WSW fetch... only to shift NW'erly as riding pushes in. Still a long ways out so hopefully it will look a little more favorable in the coming days.

 

Any bets on under/over snowfall at CLE? My guess is that CLE finishes around 25" give or take.

[OHweather]

Its down to a crisp 48 degrees out there. Brrrr. The warm temps and winds had to have wiped away an ice on the lake. Next weeks looks interesting... but could be a back-breaker as well. Wouldn't be a good set-up with a low NW of us providing a WSW fetch... only to shift NW'erly as riding pushes in. Still a long ways out so hopefully it will look a little more favorable in the coming days.

Any bets on under/over snowfall at CLE? My guess is that CLE finishes around 25" give or take.

I'll take the over but not by much. That would be another 16" of snow to get there and we have a while left in winter. The lake should be wide open as you said so we'll see.

[Trent]

Any bets on under/over snowfall at CLE? My guess is that CLE finishes around 25" give or take.

Since the records have been kept at the airport, there's never been a winter below 25". I'll take the under though and say CLE finishes around 24". That still allows them about 15.2" to fall for the rest of the season.

It's pretty unusual for Lake Erie to be wide open this time of year so any cold shot could make up for lost time. The question is will the wind trajectory be favorable for us?

[dta1984]

Its down to a crisp 48 degrees out there. Brrrr. The warm temps and winds had to have wiped away an ice on the lake. Next weeks looks interesting... but could be a back-breaker as well. Wouldn't be a good set-up with a low NW of us providing a WSW fetch... only to shift NW'erly as riding pushes in. Still a long ways out so hopefully it will look a little more favorable in the coming days.

Any bets on under/over snowfall at CLE? My guess is that CLE finishes around 25" give or take.

I'll take the over...but not by much. What a year lol. Ice free lake, but how long will it last? Need to cash in soon. Extended looks cold.

[BuffaloWeather]

No ice, there is always a shot with an open lake of a decent LES event.

 

[OHweather]

Lake effect is so boom or bust southwest of northern Geauga County and we can get freak very large storms in April. My extremely non-specific guess is that Cleveland will do OK with lake effect over the next 10 days or so but that the worst will be farther east and that there's still at least 1 good synoptic storm left. I can see anywhere between 20-40" as a seasonal total but think 25-30" is most likely. You've been in a relative snow hole and even elsewhere it hasn't been particularly snowy. Strong El Niño winters almost never are very snowy in Cleveland but it's been worse than I thought so far.

[Trent]

CLE is pretty much the "biggest loser" in the Midwest for snow this year. CLE sits at a pathetic 8.8" on the season, normal is 39", so that's 22.6% of normal. Is there another climate site in the Midwest that's doing worse than 22.6%?

 

CLE still averages about 29" of snow from here on out to the end of winter. So theoretically if things turned around to normal tomorrow, CLE would end the season at 37.9", still an extremely pathetic winter total. 

 

It's really hard to say what LES will do at CLE, it's often feast or famine. If we get into a cold NW flow for 7-10 days, CLE could pick up an inch or so every few days from passing troughs and clippers, but that wouldn't even make a dent in the deficit. CLE really needs an enhancement set up to make any decent dent in the snowfall deficit.

 

I'm banking on a late March/early April quick hitting synoptic event for CLE that drops 6" and starts melting right away. Just enough to make the winter less futile, just enough to annoy everyone who thought spring was here, and too late in the season to get any enjoyment out of it.

[BuffaloWeather]

CLE is pretty much the "biggest loser" in the Midwest for snow this year. CLE sits at a pathetic 8.8" on the season, normal is 39", so that's 22.6% of normal. Is there another climate site in the Midwest that's doing worse than 22.6%?

CLE still averages about 29" of snow from here on out to the end of winter. So theoretically if things turned around to normal tomorrow, CLE would end the season at 37.9", still an extremely pathetic winter total.

It's really hard to say what LES will do at CLE, it's often feast or famine. If we get into a cold NW flow for 7-10 days, CLE could pick up an inch or so every few days from passing troughs and clippers, but that wouldn't even make a dent in the deficit. CLE really needs an enhancement set up to make any decent dent in the snowfall deficit.

I'm banking on a late March/early April quick hitting synoptic event for CLE that drops 6" and starts melting right away. Just enough to make the winter less futile, just enough to annoy everyone who thought spring was here, and too late in the season to get any enjoyment out of it.[/quote

Not Midwest but eastern New York is in the single digits for snowfall.

[snowstormcanuck]

CLE is pretty much the "biggest loser" in the Midwest for snow this year. CLE sits at a pathetic 8.8" on the season, normal is 39", so that's 22.6% of normal. Is there another climate site in the Midwest that's doing worse than 22.6%?

 

CLE still averages about 29" of snow from here on out to the end of winter. So theoretically if things turned around to normal tomorrow, CLE would end the season at 37.9", still an extremely pathetic winter total. 

 

It's really hard to say what LES will do at CLE, it's often feast or famine. If we get into a cold NW flow for 7-10 days, CLE could pick up an inch or so every few days from passing troughs and clippers, but that wouldn't even make a dent in the deficit. CLE really needs an enhancement set up to make any decent dent in the snowfall deficit.

 

I'm banking on a late March/early April quick hitting synoptic event for CLE that drops 6" and starts melting right away. Just enough to make the winter less futile, just enough to annoy everyone who thought spring was here, and too late in the season to get any enjoyment out of it.

 

 

If you know the info off by heart, what's CLE's least snowiest winter?

[Trent]

If you know the info off by heart, what's CLE's least snowiest winter?

It's actually 8.8" back in 1918/1919, which is mind blowing. Second place is 21.5" in 1931/1932.

Those records are from downtown, so the stats pre 1940s to post 1940s can't really be compared apples to apples. I want to say the airport's least snowy winter is low 30s, but not sure off the top of my head.

[BuffaloWeather]

It's actually 8.8" back in 1918/1919, which is mind blowing. Second place is 21.5" in 1931/1932.

Those records are from downtown, so the stats pre 1940s to post 1940s can't really be compared apples to apples. I want to say the airport's least snowy winter is low 30s, but not sure off the top of my head.

 

Did Cleveland NWS and Buffalo NWS decide together to move the reporting station from the waterfront to another location? Both of them did it in 1940. Was it just a coincidence?

[NEOH]

It's actually 8.8" back in 1918/1919, which is mind blowing. Second place is 21.5" in 1931/1932.

Those records are from downtown, so the stats pre 1940s to post 1940s can't really be compared apples to apples. I want to say the airport's least snowy winter is low 30s, but not sure off the top of my head.

 

Wow. Didn't realize the futility record was that low. Definitely a chance this winters lands in 2nd or 3rd place.

[Trent]

Wow. Didn't realize the futility record was that low. Definitely a chance this winters lands in 2nd or 3rd place.

 

At Hopkins the lowest I could find was 31.1" back in 1957/1958. At this point, the airport's least snowy season is certainly in play. 

 

I guess eyes are now on Tuesday as it looks interesting at this point, by this winter's standards.

[NEOH]

Picked up a little over 1" last night. Model trends are a little better for next week. Would be ideal if the low moves just north of the lake.

[dta1984]

Looks like a snowy week, or at least several chances. End of the week and next weekend look very cold, which will ice up the lake quickly I imagine.

[Trent]

Looks like a snowy week, or at least several chances. End of the week and next weekend look very cold, which will ice up the lake quickly I imagine.

 

Definitely looks interesting. 

 

Flow for the latter half of the week is N and NW so all areas should see some lake effect accumulations.

[OHweather]

Models are hinting at a band of heavy precip for several hours tomorrow that may cool things enough for a change to snow with some accumulations. Could be interesting for a few hours. After that just some generic snow showers at times through Tuesday before a potentially long duration LES event Tuesday night through Thursday night with winds starting WNW before going more NW. Right now moisture looks pretty good in that timeframe so this could be a better event.