LakeEffectOH Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I picked up over 20" in the last couple of days!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I picked up over 20" in the last couple of days!! Nice! I'll be in Chesterland later today. Us folks just 5 miles or so south don't even have half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I really think the ice over the western basin hurt a lot of Cuyahoga County. The bands have hit a wall there all event even as winds farther east turned WNW. Amazing to think ice cover played a role considering how warm the lake was just weeks ago. Checked out the visible satellite and the western basin into the southern central is ice covered. It definitely limited moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Amazing to think ice cover played a role considering how warm the lake was just weeks ago. Checked out the visible satellite and the western basin into the southern central is ice covered. It definitely limited moisture.It limited moisture and also pushed the convergence north from Cuyahoga County west which played a role in the band placement farther east. It is amazing that we had a record warm December yet the lake is freezing in mid-January. Kind of cruel actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nice! I'll be in Chesterland later today. Us folks just 5 miles or so south don't even have half of that. Let me know how it is there. Left Chesterland at 7:30am today and the radar was showing heavy snow sitting over there all morning. I'm anxious to know how much is actually up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Let me know how it is there. Left Chesterland at 7:30am today and the radar was showing heavy snow sitting over there all morning. I'm anxious to know how much is actually up there. You have a ton of snow in Chesterland. As soon I hit Farmount heading north on 306 there was a sharp increase in snow depth. Great event for your location. What a crazy gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sitting at a 48 hour total of 2.8" here. I give the storm at the end of the week a 10% chance it does anything in NE Ohio. I feel your pain........... grass tips still showing here. Probably an inch or two at best over the last week. The winds are NWerly for the top half of L. Huron and then go straight westerly or SWerly down by me - been watching this go on for almost 3 years. The occasional LES event drops a few inches but nothing seems able to lock in the good winds for any length of time with the other favourable parameters req'd. We get NWerlys in March which do jack-----. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I feel your pain........... grass tips still showing here. Probably an inch or two at best over the last week. The winds are NWerly for the top half of L. Huron and then go straight westerly or SWerly down by me - been watching this go on for almost 3 years. The occasional LES event drops a few inches but nothing seems able to lock in the good winds for any length of time with the other favourable parameters req'd. We get NWerlys in March which do jack-----. Moving back to London on Thursday Alan. That'll be sure to worsen your already bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Pretty nice MODIS imagery from earlier today showing decent banding starting to develop on the ice over the western basin this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Moving back to London on Thursday Alan. That'll be sure to worsen your already bad luck. No worries there. Nice to have you back - I thought maybe you were done with London. I've watched the radar for 2 wks and saw the area 30 miles north get pounded over and over again, and watched the snow die as it approaches London, so how much worse can it get if you want the snow?? Maybe you'll be a snow magnet..... I think I'll follow the Ohio LES folks more closely. We seem to share in a lot of the same sort of successes and failures with LES and vainly looking at the winds to take on some sort of northern orientation. I can give them advance warning when they are going to be screwed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No worries there. Nice to have you back - I thought maybe you were done with London. I've watched the radar for 2 wks and saw the area 30 miles north get pounded over and over again, and watched the snow die as it approaches London, so how much worse can it get if you want the snow?? Maybe you'll be a snow magnet..... I think I'll follow the Ohio LES folks more closely. We seem to share in a lot of the same sort of successes and failures with LES and vainly looking at the winds to take on some sort of northern orientation. I can give them advance warning when they are going to be screwed over. Welcome to the northern ohio crew. LES is fickle around here so we can all share in the misery together at some point. It's has been a rough winter if you need a NW wind direction. Luckily for you lake huron is still wide open. Despite record breaking warmth in December a good chunk of the fetch we need is frozen over. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Welcome to the northern ohio crew. LES is fickle around here so we can all share in the misery together at some point. It's has been a rough winter if you need a NW wind direction. Luckily for you lake huron is still wide open. Despite record breaking warmth in December a good chunk of the fetch we need is frozen over. Ouch! I'm wondering when we will get a good synoptic storm. So far this year, CLE has had 7.8"...ugh! I consider myself very fortunate for getting hit hard, but I feel bad for the rest of the region as snow totals are for crap. February into March looks promising as the longer range models (except for the torchy CFS...surprise! surprise!) are pumping a PNA ridge and hinting of a return to at least a -AO after the modeled early Feb. thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Thanks. You're right about the LES. We have certainly cashed in at various times, so no sense in whining too much...... I'm not enough of a met. expert to know why the winds have been so much out of the SW with these events. I can certainly understand the wind direction from the west, and the area just to my north in any normal winter gets a whole pile more than London, but maybe OHweather can chime in with an explanation. Maybe bad luck, maybe an element of GW - I don't know. I know it's not just my imagination for 3 straight winters now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You have a ton of snow in Chesterland. As soon I hit Farmount heading north on 306 there was a sharp increase in snow depth. Great event for your location. What a crazy gradient. NEOH, thanks for the report! It will be interesting when I get home. Here in Solon, I'd say there's 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NEOH, thanks for the report! It will be interesting when I get home. Here in Solon, I'd say there's 3-4". Congrats on cashing in the past week in Chesterland! Ya 3-4" sounds about right for Solon. Up until this morning there was still grass poking up there. Early morning tacked on a good 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Had 2" additional since last night. Most of that probably fell early this morning. May have had slightly more with settling. That brings my 3 day total to 7.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know it's not just my imagination for 3 straight winters now... Those that cash in on NW wind events have been shut out for 3 years. It's been very noticeable in Cleveland's secondary snowbelt so I'm not surprised it's the same across the lake in London. I'm wondering when we will get a good synoptic storm. So far this year, CLE has had 7.8"...ugh! I consider myself very fortunate for getting hit hard, but I feel bad for the rest of the region as snow totals are for crap. February into March looks promising as the longer range models (except for the torchy CFS...surprise! surprise!) are pumping a PNA ridge and hinting of a return to at least a -AO after the modeled early Feb. thaw. After this morning's dusting, CLE is sitting at 8.2" on the season ... running a nice 22" deficit for the season. IMBY, it's the same story, I'm at 8.5" for the season. Even with "all the snow" the past 10 days or so, the snowfall deficit hasn't budged at CLE. CLE is long overdue for a decent synoptic storm or lake effect event for that matter, especially for a locale that averages 68" per season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm wondering when we will get a good synoptic storm. So far this year, CLE has had 7.8"...ugh! I consider myself very fortunate for getting hit hard, but I feel bad for the rest of the region as snow totals are for crap. February into March looks promising as the longer range models (except for the torchy CFS...surprise! surprise!) are pumping a PNA ridge and hinting of a return to at least a -AO after the modeled early Feb. thaw. I'm wondering when we will get a good synoptic storm. So far this year, CLE has had 7.8"...ugh! I consider myself very fortunate for getting hit hard, but I feel bad for the rest of the region as snow totals are for crap. February into March looks promising as the longer range models (except for the torchy CFS...surprise! surprise!) are pumping a PNA ridge and hinting of a return to at least a -AO after the modeled early Feb. thaw. Honestly, I've given up on synoptic snow. This area just isn't a great location for large storms. Give me a juiced clipper with les behind it any day. It really was amazing to see how much snow fell in such a short distance from here. What was your total? The flour like snow has settled quite a bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here's my attempt at contouring storm total accumulations from this past storm based on spotter reports and radar. CLE sent a PNS with storm total snowfall this evening which was very helpful and saved me some time. Used reports of about 7" in South Russel/Newbury from dta and NEOH and assumed LakeEffectOH got about 22 or 23" based on 20" as of early Tuesday and a few hours of moderate to heavy snow after, which helped me finesse the gradient some in NW Geauga County. The best event we've seen in NE Ohio in a while actually...too bad it was confined to the heart of the Snowbelt. Comparing my forecast to this...the southern cut off in many areas was a bit farther north than I anticipated by a few miles. That's not a huge bust but when you're on the short end of that stick it can be infuriating. Overall amounts were higher than I anticipated by a few inches in general with a few areas that were half a foot or more above my forecast. My 12"+ area over northern Geauga/far southern Lake had an implied range of 12-18", and that was still well too low on max amounts. The southern cut off was a few miles north of where I expected but other than that I wasn't too upset about my placement of the heavier snow in Ohio, but was again several inches too low across the board. In NW PA...just like in NE OH...I was a bit too far south with the southern cutoff in amounts, and needed to bring heavier amounts down to the lakeshore. Overall I (once again) fared worse in NW PA than in NE Ohio with the forecast. I mentioned in my long write up that I could see totals topping 20" locally in northern Geauga County if everything went well and bands were persistent...given the duration of the event...similar winds through the event...and favorable conditions for the entire event I probably should've pulled out some higher accums. Being a few miles off with placement on the southern edge is one thing, but being several inches too low across the board is annoying. These last two events have made me feel like a conservative forecaster (which I've never been known as)...ironically a few people tried telling me my 12"+ was "aggressive" before the event, but the lake got the last laugh over a lot of us forecasters as it sometimes does as my max amounts were almost a foot too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like the upcoming storm will create NE winds running the full fetch of Lake Erie. Could there be some lake effect west of CLE through Sandusky? Looks like the GFS tries to get something going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like the upcoming storm will create NE winds running the full fetch of Lake Erie. Could there be some lake effect west of CLE through Sandusky? Looks like the GFS tries to get something going. What made you choose Lakewood? I thought all snow weenies live on the NE side of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Picked up 1" overnight. Good luck with the storm tomorrow ohweather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Being in the Akron area has been downright depressing this winter. An inch here and there but to watch LE in the north and this be just south...... I can't even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like the upcoming storm will create NE winds running the full fetch of Lake Erie. Could there be some lake effect west of CLE through Sandusky? Looks like the GFS tries to get something going. I'm not positive, but I believe I drove through some lake effect around sandusky this morning on the way to Detroit. I didn't have a chance to check radar. It snowed moderately between Sandusky and toledo. Not much accumulation though. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Northeasterly wind lake effect snow... I have still never seen northeasterly wind LES hit Toledo in 20 years of watching the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 9 AM Saturday morning and only the smallest trace of LES at Lakewood Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Athens is running a bit ahead of CLE snowfall wise for the season with about 12", almost normal for the whole season. You guys will get lucky eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Had a nice view of the lake flying out of CLE yesterday. The NE winds pushed a lot of the ice to the shoreline. It must have been very thin. There was pretty much open water all the way to the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Had a nice view of the lake flying out of CLE yesterday. The NE winds pushed a lot of the ice to the shoreline. It must have been very thin. There was pretty much open water all the way to the islands. Satellite pictures show it being pretty thin out there today. CLE overperforming today with a high of 46, which will aid in melting. The central basin should stay mostly ice free with the western basin becoming much more slushy. Now of course we need the right set up ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Athens is running a bit ahead of CLE snowfall wise for the season with about 12", almost normal for the whole season. You guys will get lucky eventually I hope so. Except for GHD II last year, we've been missed by not only conventional snowstorms but clippers too. We've been on a pretty unlucky streak since 2012-2013. Not counting 2011-12 because the entire lower 48 got shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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