Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

Radar is starting to light up over the lake... right on schedule. The meso models are handling things pretty well. It will be interesting to see how things play out tonight. I think the one positive thing for us on the southern fringe as that the winds are fairly strong... which I think will reduce the backing of winds over land.

[dta1984]

Radar is starting to light up over the lake... right on schedule. The meso models are handling things pretty well. It will be interesting to see how things play out tonight. I think the one positive thing for us on the southern fringe as that the winds are fairly strong... which I think will reduce the backing of winds over land.

Ya it's definitely looking good so far. We'll see how long it holds and how much it strengthens.

Yikes at the ice build up! Amazing how fast that happened. Hopefully it'll be rather thin and melt some as long as we don't get a stretch of temps like last year.

[NEOH]

Ya it's definitely looking good so far. We'll see how long it holds and how much it strengthens.

Yikes at the ice build up! Amazing how fast that happened. Hopefully it'll be rather thin and melt some as long as we don't get a stretch of temps like last year.

 

That's an intense band sitting between 322 and 422 (just north of us). its snowing pretty well in Chagrin under weaker returns so its definitley pounding underneath those better returns. Just a few mile shift south and we are in business.

 

CLE's advisory is for 3-5" tonight. If that band sits in one spot they will have that much in the next couple of hours. The main concern I have is ridging pushing in quicker than expected. But I'll enjoy the LES while it lasts.

 

The strong winds, temps in the teens and low dew's will cool the water quickly.

[dta1984]

I've got a spot on my deck that doesn't get too much wind. Measured 4" here. There was probably 1" already there from the other day. Will go with 3" so far.

Light snow currently, lots of wind.

[dta1984]

Band looks pretty intense just south of 322. It would be nice if it could settle just a little more south.

[NEOH]

Band looks pretty intense just south of 322. It would be nice if it could settle just a little more south.

Tough watching the band sit just a few miles north. The wrfnmm seems to be doing the best with location of the band. There is going to be a sharp cut off north to south. It should shift south some before heading up the lakeshore later tonight. Chesterland on east should jackpot.

Amazing how a few degrees change in wind direction makes a huge difference with les. Good lesson learned so far... The meso models always seem be too far south with band placement.

[dta1984]

Ya I just came back from Chesterland. Definitely better rates there. Seems like just constant light snow here. Hopefully it'll come this way for a little bit.

[OHweather]

So far I'm liking my forecast WRT band placement...think a few spots could exceed 10" total though and places like Euclid in NE Cuyahoga will likely exceed my forecast by a reasonable amount.

I haven't looked at much for several hours but the strongest push of NW winds was modeled to come around 11pm or so, so it's possible the band nudges south a bit into more of Cuyahoga and southern Geauga before shifting back northeast. Think peak band intensity will occur in that same timeframe as well...could see it produce 2-3" per hour briefly. I have no idea why Geauga isn't under a warning or why Cuy isn't under an advisory for the northern part of the county.

[Cleveland_WX]

Clevelands NWS does not update frequently.

[BuffaloWeather]

What an awesome band, enjoy people at the other side of the lake!

 

[OHweather]

Best band of the year into NE Ohio by far. I suspect northern Geauga and western Lake County got another 6-10" of lake effect and have storm totals of over a foot. Band still going strong but has shifted to mainly north of route 6. I have to suspect places near Euclid got at least 6" of LES this evening and parts of Lake County from Willoughby Hills east got closer to 10" of LES so I don't understand why an advisory wasn't issued for Cuyahoga and a warning wasn't issued for Lake. Unfortunately this missed most of you guys just to the north, although I suspect Maidensnow will get a nice total. As I pointed out earlier I haven't agreed with CLE's handling thus far and I can't explain their lack of action tonight despite heavy snow rates and an organized band sitting in one area.

Anyways next chance comes Sunday into Monday as the PV visits the region. Southerly winds, warmth and rain later this week should minimize ice on the western basin although I suspect the next blast of cold will really start freezing it over more. Winds look WNW for at least a time Sunday or Monday now and even if the lake cools a few degrees and if the western basin is slushy the instability could be extreme.

[Trent]

What a nice band development last night, too bad it was just a few miles too north. The hi res models almost always have a southern and western bias with lake band placement, winds just never got around to 280-290 last night for a two hour period as indicated.

I did find it comical how much "hype" this little 2-3" clipper produced on media. Granted it hasn't snowed much at all this winter, but in the end it was 2.7" of wind blown high ratio fluff, hardly noteworthy in a place that averages over 65" per year.

With the winds I still have a lot of grass showing on my lawn with the snow drifted elsewhere. I feel like this event has only whet my appetite for a real winter storm, but now we wait.

[dta1984]

I didn't get a chance to measure again, but looks like maybe an additional 1" since last measurement. Event total estimated 4".

[OHweather]

[HO1088]

Great image. Thanks for posting it.

[NEOH]

I didn't get a chance to measure again, but looks like maybe an additional 1" since last measurement. Event total estimated 4".

 

Yep, 4" was it around here. Bummer winds didn't come around more. On to the next...

[LakeEffectOH]

Hey all!  Between the clipper (~2") and the LES (~9") I picked up around 11" since late Monday night.  There was around 8" on the ground when I left for work at 8:30am. 

[OHweather]

Hey all! Between the clipper (~2") and the LES (~9") I picked up around 11" since late Monday night. There was around 8" on the ground when I left for work at 8:30am.

Nice!

[LakeEffectOH]

Nice!

Hope to be getting more this weekend and early next week.  12z GEM is showing a nice setup for a W-E band of LES after this weekend's cutter.  12z GFS is depicting this as well. 

[OHweather]

Hope to be getting more this weekend and early next week. 12z GEM is showing a nice setup for a W-E band of LES after this weekend's cutter. 12z GFS is depicting this as well.

This next setup looks like it could be a good one as well. Hopefully the "warmth" and wind/rain can keep ice from expanding anymore in the western basin later this week, a good chuck of it between Toledo and Port Clinton on satellite today.

[NEOH]

Hope to be getting more this weekend and early next week.  12z GEM is showing a nice setup for a W-E band of LES after this weekend's cutter.  12z GFS is depicting this as well. 

 

Congrats on the snow. Are you north of 322? Looks like a decent set-up early next week.

[LakeEffectOH]

Congrats on the snow. Are you north of 322? Looks like a decent set-up early next week.

Thanks!!

 

Yep, I'm about 2.5 miles of 322.

[MAIDEsNow]

Ended up with 14.3" total combined w/ clipper plus LES.  Was ripping quite nicely last night from 9pm ish thru very early this morning. Wound down completely IMBY by 11am.  I work right up along the lake just west of Erie and they did not get much today and nothing to speak of last night.

 

Fingers crossed for upcoming chances...

[OHweather]

After a nice chunk of my life, here's my best guess verification map for the past event, clipper and LES included:

 

 

A few notes on the map itself:

 

-There were few spotter reports in eastern Ashtabula County and western inland Erie County that were "reliable"...I say this because there were a few spotters that called in for parts of the event but didn't for others when I knew they got snow. The only good reports in that area were MAIDEsNow's 14" report from NW Edinboro and a spotter that had a total of 13" just NW of Edinboro as well, along with 11" from a spotter near Pierpont. Radar overshoots LES badly in Ashtabula/Erie/Crawford so unfortunately I had to do a lot of guessing there based on terrain, surrounding reports and what radar happened to picked up there.

 

-The only good reports in eastern Cuyahoga County and western Geauga County were a total of 8.8" in Euclid from a trained spotter...11" 2.5 miles north of 322 from LakeEffect in Chesterland, and 4" in Newbury/South Russell from dta and NEOH. Luckily radar doesn't overshot LES there so I feel much better about that area, but the lack of reports and sharp cutoff mean I may be a little off. The 8" edge looks jagged in NE Cuyahoga, however, that is supported by radar, as there was a good period where the band absolutely ripped on Euclid but areas immediately southwest weren't getting good snow, and a period of time earlier on in the evening when the band was farther south where heavier returns were consistently just east of 271. It's probably not perfect and a few of you live/work in/drive around in that area, so if that looks off please let me know and I can tweak.

 

As for the forecast, was a little low on max amounts. The band placement in NE Ohio was pretty good compared to forecast, however what I needed to do was extend heavier amounts much closer to lakeshore. It seems like these firehose bands driven by strong convergence are the one type of event that do well all the way down to the shore, so it's something to keep in mind going forward. That was the biggest thing on my map that I ended up not liking. I did pretty good in Erie County PA but worse in Crawford PA. I'm trying to get better in that area, but I haven't been able to watch events there on radar for years and years because radar overshoots LES there, so it's still a process.

 

Next event could be interesting, so on to that one.

[Cleveland_WX]

After a nice chunk of my life, here's my best guess verification map for the past event, clipper and LES included:

 

 

A few notes on the map itself:

 

-There were few spotter reports in eastern Ashtabula County and western inland Erie County that were "reliable"...I say this because there were a few spotters that called in for parts of the event but didn't for others when I knew they got snow. The only good reports in that area were MAIDEsNow's 14" report from NW Edinboro and a spotter that had a total of 13" just NW of Edinboro as well, along with 11" from a spotter near Pierpont. Radar overshoots LES badly in Ashtabula/Erie/Crawford so unfortunately I had to do a lot of guessing there based on terrain, surrounding reports and what radar happened to picked up there.

 

-The only good reports in eastern Cuyahoga County and western Geauga County were a total of 8.8" in Euclid from a trained spotter...11" 2.5 miles north of 322 from LakeEffect in Chesterland, and 4" in Newbury/South Russell from dta and NEOH. Luckily radar doesn't overshot LES there so I feel much better about that area, but the lack of reports and sharp cutoff mean I may be a little off. The 8" edge looks jagged in NE Cuyahoga, however, that is supported by radar, as there was a good period where the band absolutely ripped on Euclid but areas immediately southwest weren't getting good snow, and a period of time earlier on in the evening when the band was farther south where heavier returns were consistently just east of 271. It's probably not perfect and a few of you live/work in/drive around in that area, so if that looks off please let me know and I can tweak.

 

As for the forecast, was a little low on max amounts. The band placement in NE Ohio was pretty good compared to forecast, however what I needed to do was extend heavier amounts much closer to lakeshore. It seems like these firehose bands driven by strong convergence are the one type of event that do well all the way down to the shore, so it's something to keep in mind going forward. That was the biggest thing on my map that I ended up not liking. I did pretty good in Erie County PA but worse in Crawford PA. I'm trying to get better in that area, but I haven't been able to watch events there on radar for years and years because radar overshoots LES there, so it's still a process.

 

Next event could be interesting, so on to th

 

 

 

Ohio City- Cleveland couple blocks in from the lake-shore there is at least 4 inches on the ground..  Have had a few good bursts come through. 

[dta1984]

1.5" overnight.

CLE already has a hwo for les Sunday and Monday. Should be interesting!

[NEOH]

After a nice chunk of my life, here's my best guess verification map for the past event, clipper and LES included:

 

A few notes on the map itself:

 

-There were few spotter reports in eastern Ashtabula County and western inland Erie County that were "reliable"...I say this because there were a few spotters that called in for parts of the event but didn't for others when I knew they got snow. The only good reports in that area were MAIDEsNow's 14" report from NW Edinboro and a spotter that had a total of 13" just NW of Edinboro as well, along with 11" from a spotter near Pierpont. Radar overshoots LES badly in Ashtabula/Erie/Crawford so unfortunately I had to do a lot of guessing there based on terrain, surrounding reports and what radar happened to picked up there.

 

-The only good reports in eastern Cuyahoga County and western Geauga County were a total of 8.8" in Euclid from a trained spotter...11" 2.5 miles north of 322 from LakeEffect in Chesterland, and 4" in Newbury/South Russell from dta and NEOH. Luckily radar doesn't overshot LES there so I feel much better about that area, but the lack of reports and sharp cutoff mean I may be a little off. The 8" edge looks jagged in NE Cuyahoga, however, that is supported by radar, as there was a good period where the band absolutely ripped on Euclid but areas immediately southwest weren't getting good snow, and a period of time earlier on in the evening when the band was farther south where heavier returns were consistently just east of 271. It's probably not perfect and a few of you live/work in/drive around in that area, so if that looks off please let me know and I can tweak.

 

As for the forecast, was a little low on max amounts. The band placement in NE Ohio was pretty good compared to forecast, however what I needed to do was extend heavier amounts much closer to lakeshore. It seems like these firehose bands driven by strong convergence are the one type of event that do well all the way down to the shore, so it's something to keep in mind going forward. That was the biggest thing on my map that I ended up not liking. I did pretty good in Erie County PA but worse in Crawford PA. I'm trying to get better in that area, but I haven't been able to watch events there on radar for years and years because radar overshoots LES there, so it's still a process.

 

Next event could be interesting, so on to that one.

 

You made a great forecast. Nice job. CLE played catch-up throughout the entire event.

 

Hopefully we'll see a more NW'erly wind direction next week. However, I wouldn't be surprised if next week doesn't look the same as this past. Seems like we can't get winds to turn more than 290 or so.

[LakeEffectOH]

After a nice chunk of my life, here's my best guess verification map for the past event, clipper and LES included:

 

 

A few notes on the map itself:

 

-There were few spotter reports in eastern Ashtabula County and western inland Erie County that were "reliable"...I say this because there were a few spotters that called in for parts of the event but didn't for others when I knew they got snow. The only good reports in that area were MAIDEsNow's 14" report from NW Edinboro and a spotter that had a total of 13" just NW of Edinboro as well, along with 11" from a spotter near Pierpont. Radar overshoots LES badly in Ashtabula/Erie/Crawford so unfortunately I had to do a lot of guessing there based on terrain, surrounding reports and what radar happened to picked up there.

 

-The only good reports in eastern Cuyahoga County and western Geauga County were a total of 8.8" in Euclid from a trained spotter...11" 2.5 miles north of 322 from LakeEffect in Chesterland, and 4" in Newbury/South Russell from dta and NEOH. Luckily radar doesn't overshot LES there so I feel much better about that area, but the lack of reports and sharp cutoff mean I may be a little off. The 8" edge looks jagged in NE Cuyahoga, however, that is supported by radar, as there was a good period where the band absolutely ripped on Euclid but areas immediately southwest weren't getting good snow, and a period of time earlier on in the evening when the band was farther south where heavier returns were consistently just east of 271. It's probably not perfect and a few of you live/work in/drive around in that area, so if that looks off please let me know and I can tweak.

 

As for the forecast, was a little low on max amounts. The band placement in NE Ohio was pretty good compared to forecast, however what I needed to do was extend heavier amounts much closer to lakeshore. It seems like these firehose bands driven by strong convergence are the one type of event that do well all the way down to the shore, so it's something to keep in mind going forward. That was the biggest thing on my map that I ended up not liking. I did pretty good in Erie County PA but worse in Crawford PA. I'm trying to get better in that area, but I haven't been able to watch events there on radar for years and years because radar overshoots LES there, so it's still a process.

 

Next event could be interesting, so on to that one.

Good job OH Weather...I really like how you explain, in detail, how you explain your LES forecasts.  Looking forward to your insight for next week's event(s)!

[OHweather]

Good job OH Weather...I really like how you explain, in detail, how you explain your LES forecasts.  Looking forward to your insight for next week's event(s)!

 

 

You made a great forecast. Nice job. CLE played catch-up throughout the entire event.

 

Hopefully we'll see a more NW'erly wind direction next week. However, I wouldn't be surprised if next week doesn't look the same as this past. Seems like we can't get winds to turn more than 290 or so.

Thanks for the kind words ^

 

As for the upcoming events...there could be some lake effect/enhanced precip on Saturday. The lowest 4k feet are moist and unstable enough for lake effect with a W or WNW flow...but there's an inversion near 4k feet on Saturday with moisture struggling to get into the snow growth zone, so any lake effect would be light and could possibly mix with freezing drizzle.

 

Better threat obviously Sunday-Monday as our friend the polar vortex moves right across the Great Lakes. Could be a shot of light synoptic snow on Sunday on the leading edge of the arctic air before lake effect sets up Sunday night. Some pros and cons to this event although early on I'm leaning towards some areas getting warning-worthy amounts. Pros are not much wind shear and a well aligned WNW flow along with what should be plenty of instability and high inversion heights. Cons are the inherently dry nature of arctic airmasses...although, a long fetch off of Lake Erie and possibly some pre-conditioning from Lake Michigan could alleviate that concern...something to watch. Other con is once 850mb temps start getting to -20 or -22C the snow growth zone is often below or only in the lower portions of the cloud, meaning snow ratios can struggle.

 

The 0z NAM shows 850mb temps of more like -18C or -19C Sunday night with good moisture in the snow growth zone thanks to pre-conditioning from Lake Michigan...the 0z GFS is a little colder with 850mb temps and drier in the low levels. The NAM tends to pick up on lake modification better, but I want to see it hold with the idea of enough moisture for high ratios as we get closer.

 

As for possible banding...models are showing a nice surface trough dropping southeast towards Lake Erie Sunday night which tends to favor a good single band developing, before the trough pushes southeast on Monday. Some convergence would likely persist in the Snowbelt on Monday as pressures rise over land. This all suggests that decent banding may be around for much of the event.

 

As for possible band placement...winds on the GFS and NAM are WNW Sunday night into Monday before the GFS turns winds more W on Monday. I've been doing a little digging into isobar patterns that occur with strong single bands that produce warning criteria snow somewhere in Cuyahoga County (other than just in Euclid) and the isobars on the models look close to this pattern on Sunday night...the pattern for most of the great single band Cuyahoga County events are isobars oriented NW to SE with a surface trough over or north of the lake. I'll try to post more on this during the day Friday when I get more time...but it's possible banding gets into a good chunk of Cuyahoga County Sunday night (and inherently most of Geauga too) before shifting back northeast some on Monday if the models hold. If ratios struggle then amounts of say a foot or more would be hard to come by, but if we get good banding could still see some 6"+ amounts, even if the snow has the consistency of powdered sugar as it falls.

[Trent]

I've always been fascinated by those primary east/west bands that hit Cuyahoga County (for obvious reasons). I've also wondered if there's ever been a north south primary band from Lake Huron that continued across Erie into Cuyahoga for any appreciable amount of time. I'd imagine these are rare but if the do happen could produce those 1-2' event totals. The difficulty with LES in Cuyahoga County has always been duration.

40s last night took a toll on the snowpack. I've got lots of bare patches and I see CLE is reporting a Trace depth. As dewpoints rise today, I wouldn't be surprised to see it completely wiped out. I'm sure you east siders will still have snow cover before the next event this weekend.