Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[carumba]

Just started snowing here in Bainbridge.

[dta1984]

Good map OHweather, seems reasonable. Hrr shows 3-6 for most of Geauga County. Looks like snow has started.

[Trent]

I picked up a little over an inch of wind blown slop. CLE probably had between 1-1.5" so we'll see if our 1 inch streak finally comes to an end.

[OHweather]

I picked up a little over an inch of wind blown slop. CLE probably had between 1-1.5" so we'll see if our 1 inch streak finally comes to an end.

So far only 0.5", although that may just be through 18z. I'd be shocked if they didn't pick up an inch given three hours of moderate or heavy snow and temps below freezing.

[dta1984]

Looks like 1.5" so far. Hard to measure with the wind whipped areas. Looks like lake effect bands starting now.

[OHweather]

Still waiting to see how much synoptic snow fell...seems like most areas got an inch or two.

 

The lake effect is kicking in with some moderate bursts of snow across a lot of the area and definitely some Lake Michigan moisture...convergence is pretty weak so there isn't a good band, just moderate bursts of snow at this point. That should improve later when the winds on land start going more WSW, but when that happens the LES will probably shift into eastern Lake/northern Ashtabula/Erie Counties. We'll see what the totals end up being.

[HO1088]

Big snow for Saturday?  Latest CLE AFD likes the ECMWF.

 

 

[dta1984]

Very little additional snow overnight. Looks like Chardon may be around 3". Did any bands get going? There looked like one in northern Geauga, but I don't think it stayed put for long.

[Trent]

I had a little over a half inch from some of those transient bands from about 6-10pm last night. It seems underperforming is the motto of this winter.

We'll see what the clipper does tonight.

[OHweather]

Very little additional snow overnight. Looks like Chardon may be around 3". Did any bands get going? There looked like one in northern Geauga, but I don't think it stayed put for long.

It looks like northern Geauga got 4-5" totals based on the reports this morning, the bands got going kind of late and by that point everything was shifting north pretty quickly. This one wasn't a bad bust but it certainly didn't reach its potential.

CLE...managed to squeak out 1.3"...the streak is over

[NEOH]

Looks like 1.5" so far. Hard to measure with the wind whipped areas. Looks like lake effect bands starting now.

 

Came up with the same total. Winds were ripping so it was hard to measure. Sure felt like Winter this morning.

 

It would really be a kick in the arse if we don't see one significant LES event on a NW flow before the ice forms... which will be happening soon.

 

Looks like winds will turn WNW'erly for a brief time following the clipper then shift to the WSW - same as this past storm.

[dta1984]

It looks like northern Geauga got 4-5" totals based on the reports this morning, the bands got going kind of late and by that point everything was shifting north pretty quickly. This one wasn't a bad bust but it certainly didn't reach its potential.

CLE...managed to squeak out 1.3"...the streak is over

Ya that seems right. My 1.5 may be low, but it was hard to measure.

Is tonight through Weds still looking good?

[OHweather]

Ya that seems right. My 1.5 may be low, but it was hard to measure.

Is tonight through Weds still looking good?

It looks better than this past event, the winds do go WNW for a while tomorrow evening into the wee hours of Wednesday. The potential seems to be there for a mega band in that timeframe but I'm not sure where or how intense it will be yet.

CLE only issuing a watch for Erie County PA was surprising and their AFD wasn't very helpful.

[MAIDEsNow]

Tough to measure with the wind, but "event #1" measured just under 6" imby as of 4am this morning, before band skirted off quickly north and then off shore.  The fact that our Lakeshore is still under a warning in most certainly not warranted IMO.

 

I'm confused as to BUF vs CLE as what to expect with LES "event #2".  The 10:50 AFD our of Buffalo has the following:

 

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME INCREASINGLY

FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN A GENERAL

280-290 FLOW REGIME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -18C WILL

CERTAINLY GENERATE EXTREME OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEARING 18K FEET. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE

DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE PEGGED WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY

YIELD SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOURS FOR AN EXTENDED

PERIOD OF TIME. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS

SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

 

Several counties southeast of Lake Ontario are under the LES Watch and well as the usual suspects of Chatauqua and Cattaraugus counties under the Watch off Erie with "Heavy Snow" in the point & click for areas well south and east of the lake.  Past experience would lead me to believe in such situations Erie & Crawford county in PA and the typical counties in OH would be under the Watch at this point.  I would also think State College would put Warren County PA under a Watch as well. Moreover, the Watch snowfall totals out of Cleveland of 5 to 8" are less than impressive.  I assume the winds can be different direction off of Erie vs Ontario, but can they be that different at toward either end of Lake Erie?

 

I was thinking that the next couple of days could yield decent totals, heck my point & click spits out over 20" on the high side of the numbers.  We shall see...

[NEOH]

 

Tough to measure with the wind, but "event #1" measured just under 6" imby as of 4am this morning, before band skirted off quickly north and then off shore.  The fact that our Lakeshore is still under a warning in most certainly not warranted IMO.

 

I'm confused as to BUF vs CLE as what to expect with LES "event #2".  The 10:50 AFD our of Buffalo has the following:

 

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME INCREASINGLY

FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN A GENERAL

280-290 FLOW REGIME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -18C WILL

CERTAINLY GENERATE EXTREME OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH LAKE INDUCED

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEARING 18K FEET. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE

DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE PEGGED WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER WHICH WILL LIKELY

YIELD SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOURS FOR AN EXTENDED

PERIOD OF TIME. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS

SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

 

Several counties southeast of Lake Ontario are under the LES Watch and well as the usual suspects of Chatauqua and Cattaraugus counties under the Watch off Erie with "Heavy Snow" in the point & click for areas well south and east of the lake.  Past experience would lead me to believe in such situations Erie & Crawford county in PA and the typical counties in OH would be under the Watch at this point.  I would also think State College would put Warren County PA under a Watch as well. Moreover, the Watch snowfall totals out of Cleveland of 5 to 8" are less than impressive.  I assume the winds can be different direction off of Erie vs Ontario, but can they be that different at toward either end of Lake Erie?

 

I was thinking that the next couple of days could yield decent totals, heck my point & click spits out over 20" on the high side of the numbers.  We shall see...

 

 

It depends on the situation... when the low moves away winds are slower to turn WSW'erly further to the northeast. So while winds are backing across NE Ohio as ridging pushes in they stay from the W or WNW'erly longer in WNY. I think lake erie's shoreline configuration plays a role as well.

 

Hopefully we'll get a true NW flow event at some point. The clipper and short lived LES should be our largest snow of the year in this area.

[NEOH]

CLE issued LES advisories for geauga, lake and ashtabula. Some of the meso models show a healthy band pushing south into southern geauga. We'll see how everything plays out but this should easily be our largest snowfall of the season.

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO
8 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH AROUND AN INCH   POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH.

 

[OHweather]

In today's version of "he's bound to get a forecast right eventually", we have my map

 

I haven't had time to put together a write-up yet and may make a few tweaks when I get around to that later, but general thinking is 1-2" of synoptic snow. There's a period of weak to moderate lift late tonight and Tuesday morning for several hours that should produce light snow. There appears to be a decent potential for a brief snow squall along the arctic front Tuesday morning. Between all of this think everyone should ring out 1-2" of synoptic snow. A little concerned that with the lift focused in the snow growth zone that high ratios may allow the snow ahead of the arctic front to over-perform a bit which could push a few areas over 2" so I went 1-2" with locally up to 3" for the synoptic snow area wide.

 

For the LES portion of the event winds become aligned out of the WSW by late Tuesday morning behind the arctic front which should allow a strong single band to form over the lake and head towards SW NY initially. Winds slowly go WNW by Tuesday evening which should push the band onshore in the primary Snowbelt. Moderate to extreme instability, high inversion heights and good moisture including a fetch from Lake Michigan support heavy snow rates in the band. Winds over the lake go WNW or even NW briefly Tuesday evening which will try to push the band into parts of northern and eastern Cuyahoga County, but high pressure and cooling temps overland will try to keep the band closer to the shore. The winds should start pushing the band back northeast up the shore late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

 

BUFKIT shows strong lift in the snow growth zone Tuesday night into Wednesday in the LES (a "cross-hair signature" as BUF frequently calls it) suggesting heavy snow in the band and what should be good convergence over the Snowbelt supports a good band...so amounts of 6-10" should easily be doable where the band is most persistent. Right now I have this over northern Geauga as the winds over land will try to keep the band a little farther north than so models try to take it. Erie County and SW NY will also do well. Cuyahoga County has high bust potential either way as WNW or NW winds over water will try to push the band into the county, so I did put more in northern and eastern Cuyahoga to account for this but it could be higher if the banding can firmly settle into there. If winds on land as too SW the banding may largely stay NE of Cuyahoga County so as I said...bust potential either way.

 

Will try to have a little more later.

[Trent]

As always, nice write up. Winter forecasting here is difficult.

Interesting that the winter weather advisory amounts are only 1-2" in the text portion. I've never fully understood the whole winter weather advisory thing. Many times AFDs will explicitly mention that snowfall will be in the 2-4" range and thus they won't be putting out advisories.

[OHweather]

As always, nice write up. Winter forecasting here is difficult.

Interesting that the winter weather advisory amounts are only 1-2" in the text portion. I've never fully understood the whole winter weather advisory thing. Many times AFDs will explicitly mention that snowfall will be in the 2-4" range and thus they won't be putting out advisories.

The criteria is normally 4-6" in 12 hours or less or 6-8" in 12-24 hours of snow, with no specific other criteria for winter weather advisories issued for snow. Normally CLE follows that exactly as you mentioned.

 

In this case...every office around CLE issued advisories and completely boxed in CLE...so I suspect this advisory was mainly issued for coordination purposes. In the short but oh-so-sweet AFD CLE mentioned that they issued the advisory due to the period of best snow being near the AM commute with gusty winds adding to the issues, making it sound like they issued this as an "impact based" type advisory. CLE normally does not do this and in many cases has not issued advisories when they're clearly needed because the snow amounts are expected to be something like half an inch below criteria, which I personally think is ridiculous. So I'm not complaining about this advisory, but I'd like to see them use common sense like this more often. I can think of a couple times last winter where 1" per hour snow rates occurred during a commute with no advisory. Then there's the ridiculous Valentine's Day fiasco too which was on a weekend but featured (well advertised) severe conditions with no advisory until after more than half the snow fell.

[NEOH]

Meso models showing an intense band developing tomorrow... Most take it pretty far south before shifting off to the ne with the backing winds.

[OHweather]

Meso models showing an intense band developing tomorrow... Most take it pretty far south before shifting off to the ne with the backing winds.

I am slightly worried/intrigued about the southwestern edge of things. The rising pressure/cold air/WSW winds on land will do all they can to keep the band pretty for north, but there's a pretty decent push of NW winds for a few hours over the lake mainly tomorrow evening that will try to push the band south.

[OHweather]

Every 0z WRF run I've looked at including BUF's have half an inch to an inch of QPF somewhere over Geauga County...but there's disagreement where in the county that occurs. I'm starting to feel better about parts of northern and especially eastern Cuyahoga getting a few inches of LES on top of any synoptic snow. We'll see how things are going in the morning. I suspect before all is said and done CLE will bump Geauga up to a warning and Cuyahoga will at least get a LES advisory.

[NEOH]

About 2" down so far and snowing nicely. Looks like we'll have a coiple more hours of synoptic snow as well.

[NEOH]

Every 0z WRF run I've looked at including BUF's have half an inch to an inch of QPF somewhere over Geauga County...but there's disagreement where in the county that occurs. I'm starting to feel better about parts of northern and especially eastern Cuyahoga getting a few inches of LES on top of any synoptic snow. We'll see how things are going in the morning. I suspect before all is said and done CLE will bump Geauga up to a warning and Cuyahoga will at least get a LES advisory.

 

The meso models on tropical tidbits all show a nice bullseye over Geauga county. High bust potentail as you mentioned with the WSW winds over land. The flow does come around from 280-290 for a few hours so there is hope.

[Trent]

Looks like a nice moderate band getting ready to slide through. I had about 1.5" when I got up.

[NEOH]

Nice band showing up on the WRF-ARW (and the NMM as well).

 

 

[dta1984]

2" seems about right. ^^wow at that lake band! Maybe we can get lucky on this one?

[Trent]

That was a pretty good band that just ripped through. Worst possible timing with peak rush hour.

I wish I could lock in that LES band for tonight. That's generally the best scenario for us near west siders to get decent accums.

[Trent]

BUF WRF models continue to show a nice primary east/west band developing through Cuyahoga County into Geauga tonight before shifting northward.

[NEOH]

Amazing how fast ice forms in the western basin. Talk about rapid ice build-up near Toledo. The first image was from 9:56am... the next from 10:56am. That's a lot of ice just one hour. I'm sure the rest of the basin follow tonight/tomorrow with temps in the teens.