dta1984 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Great writeup OHWEATHER! Should be a decent event and more spread the wealth than usual. Getting very fine snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Thanks all. The lake effect snow warning polygons are interesting. That makes it more important to nail where in a county the heaviest snow will be, but if done right can really lower the false alarms for areas like say western Cuyahoga. http://www.weather.gov/buf/mm.html BUF still runs their local models, but for some reason they appear to be having some trouble right now, go figure. Starting to see a few flurries here. Maybe some areas will overperform, radar doesn't look too bad with some echoes over MI feeding the Lake Erie activity for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Nice forecast oh weather. Radar is starting to light up over the lake. Sure feels like winter again... Now let's get some snow to go with the cold. With the short fetch we'll probably see the "green blob" radar appearance over the higher elevations. Yep, radar definitely appears to have that green blob look to it. Up near London , that lake Huron band looks intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The HRRR has the Huron band setting up over Geauga County. Could be interesting. I hate tweaking my maps last second but I think I put the Huron band a bit too far east. Have a nice dusting here, the snow has the consistency of grains of sand but it's been snowing for a few hours and things are a little white. Will be much whiter later tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The HRRR has the Huron band setting up over Geauga County. Could be interesting. I hate tweaking my maps last second but I think I put the Huron band a bit too far east. Have a nice dusting here, the snow has the consistency of grains of sand but it's been snowing for a few hours and things are a little white. Will be much whiter later tonight and tomorrow Good to hear about the Huron band... The local models were always too far west/south with band placement so we'll see what happens. Must have been poor snow growth today... Snowed much of th day but only snow grains/pellets. Starting to pick-up again now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Currently getting snow flurries off Lake Erie. So so rare for NW Ohio to get LE but it looks like even an inch will fall over towards Port Clinton Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Have 1" down so far. The Huron band looks intense. .. hopefully it doesn't race through too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 We'll see if the radar fires up shortly. I was kind of surprised to see nothing much had fallen across Cuyahoga overnight, even across the higher elevations around 271. I'm surprised we've been under an advisory for so long, those probably shouldn't have started yesterday. Band looks pretty healthy in Geauga at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The band was really intense here but this event is certainly busting overall. I'll end up with close to an inch, with most of that falling in the last 20 minutes. I'm really scratching my head as with the really nice trough pushing through with good moisture and instability I figured there'd be much more snow outside of the band and didn't expect the band to look so disorganized as it swung west. I can remember plenty of NW or N flow events that had enough moisture and did really good and others like this that have done pretty badly, sometimes it feels like a guessing game with a short fetch. I'll have to look but maybe the low levels were drier than expected which led to the snow outside of the band not really materializing. The band also took several hours longer than expected to really get going overnight which kept totals down in the heart of the Snowbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Things really falling apart on radar. I only ended up with a trace of snow thus far, and that will probably do it. At this point it looks like it would be quite a stretch for CLE to get an inch today. This event seems to be par for the course considering this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Things really falling apart on radar. I only ended up with a trace of snow thus far, and that will probably do it. At this point it looks like it would be quite a stretch for CLE to get an inch today. This event seems to be par for the course considering this winter so far. Yeah, I really doubt CLE's 1"-less streak ends today at this point. It's bound to end soon with a cold pattern coming up and an unfrozen lake, but this event really didn't do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Yeah, I really doubt CLE's 1"-less streak ends today at this point. It's bound to end soon with a cold pattern coming up and an unfrozen lake, but this event really didn't do well. Down here far from the lakes it was also a total failure, nothing like many of the models were showing. Not that we were supposed to get clocked, but enough to whiten the ground or at least dust the car tops seemed almost a sure thing. Could this be a result of this air mass not really being that cold, (relatively speaking)? I see it's upper 20's through most of the state. Usually when you see the best squalls and snowshowers reaching all the way down this way, it's with a significant arctic frontal passage with temps falling into the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Getting a little bit of light snow starting back up. Not sure if it'll amount to much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 I don't understand the current advisories up for the region. Advisories and warnings were dropped for the east, but remain in place for Cuyahoga which has seen 0-2" of snow the past 24 hours. It's still amazing to me that Cleveland is pushing 10.5 months without a plowable snowfall. I'm sure there were quite a few who plow driveways on the side that thought for sure they'd get their first jobs of the season last night. But here we are at day 309 without any real snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I don't understand the current advisories up for the region. Advisories and warnings were dropped for the east, but remain in place for Cuyahoga which has seen 0-2" of snow the past 24 hours. It's still amazing to me that Cleveland is pushing 10.5 months without a plowable snowfall. I'm sure there were quite a few who plow driveways on the side that thought for sure they'd get their first jobs of the season last night. But here we are at day 309 without any real snow. yep. Insult to injury even down here. I know a lot of hungry site maintenance contractors down here who were thinking they'd at least have their first salting event this morning and the rug was pulled out on them. It's an amazing futility stretch we are in....and I'm even more surprised what you guys in Cleveland have been dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 yep. Insult to injury even down here. I know a lot of hungry site maintenance contractors down here who were thinking they'd at least have their first salting event this morning and the rug was pulled out on them. It's an amazing futility stretch we are in....and I'm even more surprised what you guys in Cleveland have been dealing with. It really is an amazing stretch. I didn't realize that at all. Keep in mind that is for the airport. The east side and out towards the areas that get lake effect have had 10" or so this season (still way behind normal though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I don't understand the current advisories up for the region. Advisories and warnings were dropped for the east, but remain in place for Cuyahoga which has seen 0-2" of snow the past 24 hours. It's still amazing to me that Cleveland is pushing 10.5 months without a plowable snowfall. I'm sure there were quite a few who plow driveways on the side that thought for sure they'd get their first jobs of the season last night. But here we are at day 309 without any real snow. It would be fitting if these leftover scraps turn out to produce more snow than when we were under the les warning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Down here far from the lakes it was also a total failure, nothing like many of the models were showing. Not that we were supposed to get clocked, but enough to whiten the ground or at least dust the car tops seemed almost a sure thing. Could this be a result of this air mass not really being that cold, (relatively speaking)? I see it's upper 20's through most of the state. Usually when you see the best squalls and snowshowers reaching all the way down this way, it's with a significant arctic frontal passage with temps falling into the teens.After some quick looking it looks like dew points were a good few degrees lower than modeled up here, and temperatures both surface and aloft were a little warmer than expected too. That reduces moisture and instability some which likely made a difference. As for your area I see a couple streaks of snow in western OH on visible satellite, so it's possible the bands just missed you. It's also possible that something similar happened downwind of Lake MI which just caused stuff to crap out before it hit you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 PNS from CLE showing some lackluster totals. I don't even think advisory totals were met in Geauga County, with about an inch in Chardon and Burton. It just seems like an endless string of busts the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 PNS from CLE showing some lackluster totals. I don't even think advisory totals were met in Geauga County, with about an inch in Chardon and Burton. It just seems like an endless string of busts the past few years.I honestly doubt anyone hit 4", pretty incredible bust. I agree that from a major synoptic storm perspective, I can't recall one good synoptic storm since the 10-11 winter that lived up to expectations in Cleveland. However, there have been many minor to moderate events in the 13-14 and 14-15 winters that over performed along with some busts. In fact I'd say the lake effect in November of 2014 and the many moderate snows last February all for the most part over performed or at least performed as expected...although the big storm never really came and the start to this winter has been terrible and can't be sugar coated. This last event was certainly a bust and I can't find any way to really defend my forecast or the NWS, a lot of areas were expected to get 2-4" or 3-6" and struggled to get 1". That's a bad forecast and a bust, period...but I'd say 13-14 and 14-15 while not record snow winters were both decent. Even late January and February of 2013 were "OK." We've just been missing that one good synoptic storm the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Right around 2" here in South Russell. Was definitely expecting a better event. On to the next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I go back and forth between this thread and the Upstate NY/North Country thread as I am "in between" locations, but they have posted the AFD from BUF about the upcoming LES potential. A long ways out and trying not to be a debbie-downer, but they are saying the upcoming pattern next week mirrors certain points during past two winters with the a trough near James Bay and a ridge over the west (paraphrasing) that will likely lead to an extended LES event with...a westerly or south westerly flow. Wouldn't that be a kick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I go back and forth between this thread and the Upstate NY/North Country thread as I am "in between" locations, but they have posted the AFD from BUF about the upcoming LES potential. A long ways out and trying not to be a debbie-downer, but they are saying the upcoming pattern next week mirrors certain points during past two winters with the a trough near James Bay and a ridge over the west (paraphrasing) that will likely lead to an extended LES event with...a westerly or south westerly flow. Wouldn't that be a kick... The GFS and Euro have a ton of cold starting next week but very little wind coming from north of due west. That would start freezing the lake while NE OH gets very little snow. I doubt we break futility records but two more months of bad luck and it'd be possible. Edit: Any records *other than our current ridiculous 1"-less stretch at CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 I honestly doubt anyone hit 4", pretty incredible bust. I agree that from a major synoptic storm perspective, I can't recall one good synoptic storm since the 10-11 winter that lived up to expectations in Cleveland. However, there have been many minor to moderate events in the 13-14 and 14-15 winters that over performed along with some busts. We've had some "good" busts the past few winters and of course quite a few "bad" busts. What's odd, almost comical, is how nearly every storm ends up "busting" or not performing as modeled/forecasted. The past few years there've been maybe a handful of events that actually ended up performing to expectations. It's been a pretty bad string of storms (or lack thereof). It's pretty remarkable how CLE (or anyone on the west side for that matter) hasn't had an inch of snow this winter. CLE is running a 19.5" snowfall deficit for the season as of today and that will only grow bigger through the week. You know it's a bad winter when the lakes are torching in early January, we finally get a northerly wind, and we still can't muster more than a dusting across the majority of Cuyahoga County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 They pretty much did. Winter 13/14 was snowy, but just nickel and dimes here. Largest storm that winter was 5.5" on December 14, 2013. There hasn't really been anything noteworthy the past few years. Sure, it's been cold, but big storms have been non existent. Wow, I didnt realize that. Thats crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It's been snowing "more" today & tonight IMBY than when we were under the LES Advisory yesterday afternoon and thru late last night, when we effectively got none (was 0.3" to be exact). About 3.0" since this very early this morning, snowing at a moderate clip at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 There must be a good chance for decent lake effect next week? 850 temps get down to about -20 C for a few days while the polar vortex dips down and gets stuck in Quebec. Surely the wind has to be NW at least some of the time with that synoptic setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 There must be a good chance for decent lake effect next week? 850 temps get down to about -20 C for a few days while the polar vortex dips down and gets stuck in Quebec. Surely the wind has to be NW at least some of the time with that synoptic setup? As currently modeled... the winds would be west to wsw throughout. Basically worst case scenario if you live in Ohio. WNY would be buried once again. Lets hope things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 As currently modeled... the winds would be west to wsw throughout. Basically worst case scenario if you live in Ohio. WNY would be buried once again. Lets hope things change. Ya that wouldn't be good for us. Still early though. We are due for a good multi day event sometime. My phone temp was -1 this morning. Not sure how accurate that is, but wasn't expecting that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The GFS and Euro have a ton of cold starting next week but very little wind coming from north of due west. That would start freezing the lake while NE OH gets very little snow. I doubt we break futility records but two more months of bad luck and it'd be possible. Edit: Any records *other than our current ridiculous 1"-less stretch at CLE. Is there any hope for a slight northerly wind? Or...are we just totally shutout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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