OHweather Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 CLE is at their finest this morning leaving Geauga (and one could argue NE Cuy too) out of an advisory. There have been reports of up to 6" in northern Geuaga and there's still a band sitting there and they just issued a special weather statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Geauga County definitely over performing my expectations, especially between 322 and 422. In CLE's 9:30am AFD they said it was "too late" for an advisory for Geauga...I think the current 1"/hr rates there that aren't in a hurry to diminish suggest otherwise but that's their reasoning. Have about half an inch on the ground at work in Bedford Heights. Edit: to be fair to CLE, the snow in Geauga did really lighten after this post. Although earlier this morning was different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 I measured 3" just before the snow was winding down. Driving up 306, most seemed to be near that amount until you get near route 6. There was probably 5-6 there. Then it tapered off when I got into mentor with 2-3" here, but still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 19, 2015 Author Share Posted December 19, 2015 Had a couple tenths of an inch here in Lakewood when that band slipped through this morning. Any remnant of snow was melted here by noon, but for a brief few minutes it felt like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Good call as per usual OHweather. Turned out to be a nice event after my petulant post (sick as a dog and grinch like). Had 2" from 6pm till midnight, 8" overnight till about 8:30am, then 3" till shutdown mid afternoon - a nice round total of 13.0" I even think our southern snowbelt did better than the eastern areas this time round - still gonna move out there though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Good call as per usual OHweather. Turned out to be a nice event after my petulant post (sick as a dog and grinch like). Had 2" from 6pm till midnight, 8" overnight till about 8:30am, then 3" till shutdown mid afternoon - a nice round total of 13.0" I even think our southern snowbelt did better than the eastern areas this time round - still gonna move out there though...[/quote Good call as per usual OHweather. Turned out to be a nice event after my petulant post (sick as a dog and grinch like). Had 2" from 6pm till midnight, 8" overnight till about 8:30am, then 3" till shutdown mid afternoon - a nice round total of 13.0" I even think our southern snowbelt did better than the eastern areas this time round - still gonna move out there though... Congrats on the snow.... Especially the way this winter has started. Only 3" around here but it feels like winter... Even only for a brief time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Good call as per usual OHweather. Turned out to be a nice event after my petulant post (sick as a dog and grinch like). Had 2" from 6pm till midnight, 8" overnight till about 8:30am, then 3" till shutdown mid afternoon - a nice round total of 13.0" I even think our southern snowbelt did better than the eastern areas this time round - still gonna move out there though... Congrats on a good storm! Hopefully the warm lake waters won't go to waste and we can get a good multi day significant event out of it this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Here's my best guess at actual amounts from this past lake effect snow...had to estimate using radar, satellite and elevation maps in some areas. The biggest bust was as a result of the band getting farther south than expected for a time Saturday morning, resulting in the southern edge of the better snow getting farther south in Geauga, Ashtabula and Crawford Counties. Other than that things went fairly well compared to expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 So far this season we have had less than one inch total snowfall. But Saturday morning on the way to the Cleveland Hts. ice rink, I could have used my skates on the East Cleveland roads and East Cleveland is at the bottom of the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Plugging in forecasted highs and lows for the rest of the month gives a predicted average monthly temperature of 44.0 degrees. The previous record warm December was in 1889 at 42 degrees. Obviously a lot can change over the week with unexpected midnight highs and lows, but it's almost certain this will be a historically warm 2 month period. At this point I don't think it's realistic to expect anywhere near normal snowfall this winter. Hopefully we can at least salvage a good storm out of the winter and maybe a 2 week winter blast with lake effect. I'll say CLE finishes winter with about 34". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 60/58 Imby on 12/23... While it feels nice it just doesn't feel right. Let's just keep the lake temps warm at this point. Unreal warmth out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The medium range models show a potential lake effect setup after the New Year with a NW flow and 850 hPa temperatures colder than -10 C for couple days. An upper-level ridge builds along the West Coast which is a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I don't want to jump the gun but the GFS and CMC show a significant mixed precip event Monday night. Last night's Euro was a cold rain but not far off. It's something to watch at least with cold air trying to seep south out of Ontario and Quebec and a moisture laden low coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Finally some snow chances look to be on the horizon starting end of the week and also a return to normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Finally some snow chances look to be on the horizon starting end of the week and also a return to normal temps. It will definitely be colder... But doesn't look like anything exciting snowfall wise. A couple seasonable days then above normal earl next week. Hopefully we can see a few snow showers Friday/Saturday. Would rather it stay warm until/if the pattern changes as most are talking about. Don't want to bleed any more warmth from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Impressive run at above freezing temps at CLE. The last time it was below freezing was Sunday the 20th. This month will also shatter the record for warmest December by a good 2 degrees. So far temps for November and December are slightly above that of 1931. That ended up being Cleveland's second least snowy winter on record with a meager 21.5" falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Just woke up to a light dusting of snow here, sort of unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I think there's a half decent chance CLE gets their first inch on Monday the 4th. Needless to say we're a tad behind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 I think there's a half decent chance CLE gets their first inch on Monday the 4th. Needless to say we're a tad behind... It's now up to 306 days since CLE last had an inch of snow fall. Just a brutal snowless stretch thus far. CLE is certainly well over due for a big synoptic storm. We've been shut out the past few years considering the pattern the Midwest and East Coast were in. Perhaps we can get a thread the needle type storm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 It's now up to 306 days since CLE last had an inch of snow fall. Just a brutal snowless stretch thus far. CLE is certainly well over due for a big synoptic storm. We've been shut out the past few years considering the pattern the Midwest and East Coast were in. Perhaps we can get a thread the needle type storm this winter. I loved last years tundra winter of deep snow, but outside of the massive Feb 1st snowstorm there werent really any big storms. Now 2013-14 on the other hand, that winter was a haven for one snowstorm after another, We had 6 storms over 6"+ here (4 of the 6 were over 8") so its crazy if Cleveland missed all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 I loved last years tundra winter of deep snow, but outside of the massive Feb 1st snowstorm there werent really any big storms. Now 2013-14 on the other hand, that winter was a haven for one snowstorm after another, We had 6 storms over 6"+ here (4 of the 6 were over 8") so its crazy if Cleveland missed all of them. They pretty much did. Winter 13/14 was snowy, but just nickel and dimes here. Largest storm that winter was 5.5" on December 14, 2013. There hasn't really been anything noteworthy the past few years. Sure, it's been cold, but big storms have been non existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 It's now up to 306 days since CLE last had an inch of snow fall. Just a brutal snowless stretch thus far. CLE is certainly well over due for a big synoptic storm. We've been shut out the past few years considering the pattern the Midwest and East Coast were in. Perhaps we can get a thread the needle type storm this winter. Just about 10 months without a "real" snow event is pretty incredible, considering there's about a six month window each year for us to be in the running to get snow. Our "luck" with no synoptic storms will eventually run out. I did some loose research for a class about synoptic snow storms at CLE, CAK and YNG and after filtering out any lake effect events was left with 33 synoptic storms in my 30 year period that dropped at least 8" in 24 hours at one of those sites...so about one per winter. I think the longest stretch in the 30 year period with no 8" synoptic storms at any of the 3 sites was 3 winters...so you'd hope we're getting to the point where we're due for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The event Sunday through Monday evening looks like it could be pretty interesting. Looks like a front moves through Sunday morning with winds going NW behind it. Lake effect conditions are marginal on Sunday with inversions near 6k feet and moisture to near that level, with a short fetch, so I don't expect much snow on Sunday as of right now...but with a NW flow, most of us should see some snow showers with maybe light amounts in the higher terrain. Sunday night the winds go more NNW and a decent upper level trough approaches, which will allow instability and moisture to improve markedly by Monday morning. This should allow accumulations to improve Sunday night in the higher terrain, and some Lake Huron moisture could make it into the Snowbelt east of Cleveland. The models show winds going N or even NNE on Monday behind the upper level trough which would likely push and Lake Huron connection into the Cleveland area and maybe even into the west side, with weaker multi-bands that favor the higher terrain persisting elsewhere. The models disagree with how long moisture sticks around on Monday which is key in a short fetch event...the Euro has nearly saturated air to 700mb from late Sunday night till late Monday afternoon (almost 12 hours), but the GFS and NAM show a shorter period of good moisture. While all solutions would yield some accumulations for probably the entire Snowbelt (both primary and secondary) and Cleveland metro, how long moisture hangs around determines whether or not the event justifies an advisory or even warning for some counties. The Euro has lake to 850mb differentials of 20-23C on Monday with lake to 500mb differentials of around 40C, with northerly winds and deep moisture to above 700mb, which could actually end up being a warning criteria event for the higher terrain in the secondary Snowbelt and primary Snowbelt if that verified. The GFS and NAM with less moisture would probably keep amounts more to a 1-4" range which would be spread around to a lot of areas and would be welcomed, but wouldn't be as exciting. Anyways, we'll see what happens. The dusting of snow I woke up to yesterday still hasn't completely melted and it's flurrying now, which is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Looking forward to more snow chances coming up. It's been a boring start to winter. Getting some light flurries now. Just came back from Chardon and there was a dusting- .5" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The event Sunday through Monday evening looks like it could be pretty interesting. Looks like a front moves through Sunday morning with winds going NW behind it. Lake effect conditions are marginal on Sunday with inversions near 6k feet and moisture to near that level, with a short fetch, so I don't expect much snow on Sunday as of right now...but with a NW flow, most of us should see some snow showers with maybe light amounts in the higher terrain. Sunday night the winds go more NNW and a decent upper level trough approaches, which will allow instability and moisture to improve markedly by Monday morning. This should allow accumulations to improve Sunday night in the higher terrain, and some Lake Huron moisture could make it into the Snowbelt east of Cleveland. The models show winds going N or even NNE on Monday behind the upper level trough which would likely push and Lake Huron connection into the Cleveland area and maybe even into the west side, with weaker multi-bands that favor the higher terrain persisting elsewhere. The models disagree with how long moisture sticks around on Monday which is key in a short fetch event...the Euro has nearly saturated air to 700mb from late Sunday night till late Monday afternoon (almost 12 hours), but the GFS and NAM show a shorter period of good moisture. While all solutions would yield some accumulations for probably the entire Snowbelt (both primary and secondary) and Cleveland metro, how long moisture hangs around determines whether or not the event justifies an advisory or even warning for some counties. The Euro has lake to 850mb differentials of 20-23C on Monday with lake to 500mb differentials of around 40C, with northerly winds and deep moisture to above 700mb, which could actually end up being a warning criteria event for the higher terrain in the secondary Snowbelt and primary Snowbelt if that verified. The GFS and NAM with less moisture would probably keep amounts more to a 1-4" range which would be spread around to a lot of areas and would be welcomed, but wouldn't be as exciting. Anyways, we'll see what happens. The dusting of snow I woke up to yesterday still hasn't completely melted and it's flurrying now, which is nice to see. It will be interesting to see how everything works out... typically these arctic frontal passages don't produce much LES, but moisture doesn't look that bad as you mentioned. With lake temps in the central basin around 42 degrees that will certainly produce extreme instability. Anything to end this endless boring stretch will be welcome. Can't believe there is is chance of LES without a WSW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Took me a while to get around to this. Will be nice to see some lake effect snow here. A pocket of arctic air beneath a deep upper level trough moving over the Great Lakes will set off lake effect snow Sunday through Monday downwind of Lake Erie. Upstream lake connections and synoptic moisture/lift will be key to where the heavier snow sets up and how much snow falls in this short fetch lake effect event. A shortwave glancing Lake Erie to the north will push a surface trough south across the lake Sunday morning, with 850mb temperatures cooling to -10C by Sunday afternoon. With water temps in the central and eastern basin still around 42F/6C, this creates a lake to 850mb temp differential of 16C which is enough to get a lake response. Because the shortwave only glances to us as it moves by to the north on Sunday, the cold airmass is fairly shallow, with inversion heights and moisture depth only to 5-6k feet through the day Sunday, and only touching the lower portions of the snow growth zone. Convergence along the shoreline that models show to be slow moving during the day will help focus snow, but other parameters suggest any lake effect Sunday morning into the afternoon will be pretty light with poor snow ratios. By late Sunday afternoon what’s left of the shortwave finally pushes across Lake Erie into northern Ohio, perhaps helping to bring inversions up some due to some weak large scale lift with the shortwave. This may result in somewhat of an uptick in lake effect Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings from this timeframe suggest that lake effect parameters still won’t be great, with inversion heights and moisture only getting to around 5k feet. With steep lapse rates below the inversion it’s possible there are some briefly moderate snow showers, but well aligned NW winds suggest that convergence should push south of the lakeshore by mid to late Sunday afternoon. All in all, the ingredients won’t be there for much lake effect during the day Sunday. There will certainly be snow showers, initially from eastern Cuyahoga points east in the morning as the surface trough starts slowly pushing inland, and then in both the primary and secondary Snowbelts in the afternoon in the NW flow, but amounts will be light and ratios won’t be great. It’s possible the higher terrain in Geauga gets an inch or so through the day Sunday, but I think that would be the most anyone sees. Other areas could see minimal accums as the NW flow tends to spread the snow showers west and south of Cleveland too. As we head through Sunday evening the winds slowly go more NNW and slightly colder air moves in, allowing inversion heights to come up a bit and allowing moisture depth to also increase a little bit. The winds for a few hours Sunday evening support moisture from central Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan getting to Lake Erie which could help pre-seed things. Forecast soundings by later Sunday evening have improved some from Sunday afternoon, with equilibrium levels getting pushed up to near 7k feet and the instability starting to build into the snow growth zone. This would allow for somewhat more intense snow showers and ratios probably climbing above 10:1 Sunday evening. Although the fetch is short, the winds below the inversion are fairly light and well-aligned, which may maximize how much moisture is picked up with the short fetch. A period of some pre-seeding from the Great Lakes in the evening could result in a burst of snow showers in the higher terrain of the primary and secondary Snowbelts that produces an inch or so of accumulation. Probably much less closer to the lakeshore. As the winds slowly veer more northerly Sunday night and Lake Superior/Michigan connection would likely shift west of Cleveland, and the attention would turn to an expected Lake Huron connection moving in from the east. The wind direction appears to favor any Lake Huron band getting into Ashtabula County between about 8PM Sunday and 4AM Monday before shifting west. This is a good 8 hour window of potential heavy snow rates in the county, although it’s possible the band snakes around a bit in Ashtabula County and keeps amounts somewhat under control. Forecast soundings from the NAM near Ashtabula/under the band from 1AM Monday reveal a tremendous thermodynamic environment for good lake effect…with steep lapse rates through the entire snow growth zone and up to near 700mb along with very moist low levels. Wind shear is a little iffy, but otherwise the environment easily supports 1-2” per hour snow rates under the band for several hours while it is in Ashtabula County. Outside of the likely Huron connection into extreme NE Ohio Sunday night, the question is can snow keep going during the overnight hours after upstream lake moisture shifts to the west. It may be iffy for a little bit around midnight, however after midnight the core of the upper level trough begins moving overhead allowing moisture to increase, inversion heights to come well up, and also adding some large scale lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Part 2: By 4AM Monday, the GFS, NAM and Euro (NAM pictured above) all agree on a lobe of deep moisture with the upper level trough moving over Lake Erie. They show mid-level RH values increasing by 1AM Monday and becoming very high for a few hours by 3AM. In addition to some moisture from the trough, a shot of vorticity advection will provide for some large scale ascent at the same time: In addition, even outside of the Lake Huron band, forecast soundings show a much improved thermodynamic environment late Sunday night, with equilibrium levels rising to near 10k feet, moisture and instability through the entire snow growth zone, and reasonably well-aligned NNW winds: With steep lapse rates through most of the snow growth zone, high equilibrium levels, along with moisture and lift from the upper level trough itself, I’d be utterly shocked if multi-banded lake effect didn’t start re-developing shortly after midnight Sunday night. With probably enough synoptic moisture and lift for some light snow without any lake influence, I’d have to think that by 3-4AM Monday that west of the Lake Huron band that the radar will fill in, with moderate snow in the higher terrain thanks to orographic lift from the terrain. With steep lapse rates and moisture through most of the snow growth zone, snow ratios should increase dramatically in this timeframe as well and could easily get into the 20:1 range at times. By 10AM Monday, the surface winds are going NE over Lake Huron and due north or east of due north over Lake Erie, which will likely push any Huron connection west pretty quickly between 4AM and 10AM Monday. With winds taking on a pretty strong easterly component over Lake Huron, the band will likely swing all the way through the Cleveland metro and into the far west side Monday morning. This band will likely be moving pretty quickly across the Cleveland metro as the wind shift is pretty dramatic, especially over Lake Huron, which will limit how much snow any one spot gets, however the band could be very impressive as it swings west. The band will swing across the Cleveland metro as lake effect conditions are maximized beneath the heart of the upper level trough. At 7AM Monday, lake to 850mb temp differentials of near 20C, lake to 700mb temp differentials of near 30C, and lake to 500mb temp differentials of near 40C will yield extreme instability, high equilibrium levels over 10k feet and maybe even the potential for thunder. In addition, moisture gets to near 10k feet and winds are fairly light, maximizing how much moisture can be picked up with the short fetch. Instability and very strong omega (the white line) through the dendrite growth zone suggest very high snow ratios and efficient snow rates. Although the Lake Huron band may not stay in any one spot for more than maybe an hour Monday morning as it swings west, it could certainly produce a very quick 1-2” of snow in many areas and have a disastrous impact on the Monday AM commute in Cleveland. By noon Monday the upper level trough starts moving off to the east, resulting in moisture depth and inversion heights really coming down. By late Monday afternoon, there is still a well aligned NNE flow with very steep lapse rates through the snow growth zone, so I suspect that weaker multi-bands will persist through Monday afternoon, favoring the higher terrain. There sometimes seems to be some convergence near I-71 in this setup which could result in a slightly more focused band across parts of Cuyahoga/Medina/western Summit for a time. With the mid-levels really drying and inversions coming down, along with still a fairly short fetch, I don’t anticipate major additional accumulations Monday afternoon, but some higher terrain locales could see another inch or so. The Lake Huron band may result in light to occasionally moderate snow continuing in the north-central Ohio lakeshore into Monday evening as well. So to sum up, I expect light LES to break out from Cuyahoga points east Sunday morning, with the LES expanding SW Sunday afternoon as the winds go NW. Amounts on Sunday will be light, up to an inch in Geauga but minimal elsewhere. Sunday evening I expect a temporary uptick in LES as some upstream lake moisture moves east to west across the Snowbelt and Cleveland metro. With a short fetch and still fairly marginal moisture/instability, this activity should favor the higher terrain and still be fairly light, with maybe an inch or so in some spots Sunday evening. I expect a Lake Huron band to begin taking shape in Ashtabula County Sunday evening and really become heavy overnight with only some minor fluctuations in band location from late Sunday evening through early Monday morning, possibly resulting in locally heavy amounts in Ashtabula County. West of the Huron connection, I expect a decrease in snow briefly around midnight, with snow ramping back up quickly after midnight. By 3-4AM I expect fairly numerous snow showers west of the Huron band with locally moderate snow in the higher terrain. This only lasts a few hours as the Huron band shifts west with a brief period of heavy snow and quick accums of an inch or two. The snows after midnight Sunday night and before the Huron band could produce 1-2” in the higher terrain in the secondary and primary Snowbelt, with minimal amounts closer to the lakeshore. Behind the Huron band there will be a couple hour window before the better synoptic moisture and lift pull out where light to moderate snows focused on the higher terrain could continue and maybe produce another inch by noon Monday, before moisture and inversions start lowering Monday afternoon limiting activity to fairly weak multi-bands, with a possible exception of a slightly better band over the secondary Snowbelt for a time. Additional accums Monday afternoon will most likely be less than an inch. For amounts, could see over 6” in Ashtabula County where the Huron band is most persistent Sunday night. Could also see up to 6” in the higher terrain in Geauga and eastern Cuyahoga where they’ll be favored for much of the event where elevation will be key. Could also see up to 4” in the higher terrain of the secondary Snowbelt for the same reason. Elsewhere amounts will drop off quickly towards the lakeshore, with the majority of the snow along the shore and in the city of Cleveland occurring in a brief window Monday morning while the Huron band swings west. With the Huron band moving well west there will be some light accums pretty far west for a LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 NWS BUF is testing an experimental lake effect snow warning polygon system off Lake Ontario. I hope this proves to be successful. With severe storms now polygons, there's no reason that winter weather products can't be similar. It would be nice if western Cuyahoga could stay out of lake effect warnings that affect the 271 corridor. Nice write up as usual OHweather. This might finally be CLE's first inch in over 10 months. These set ups generally aren't favorable for us along the lakeshore, so I might be waiting quite a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Nice forecast oh weather. Radar is starting to light up over the lake. Sure feels like winter again... Now let's get some snow to go with the cold. With the short fetch we'll probably see the "green blob" radar appearance over the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 NWS BUF is testing an experimental lake effect snow warning polygon system off Lake Ontario. I hope this proves to be successful. With severe storms now polygons, there's no reason that winter weather products can't be similar. It would be nice if western Cuyahoga could stay out of lake effect warnings that affect the 271 corridor. Nice write up as usual OHweather. This might finally be CLE's first inch in over 10 months. These set ups generally aren't favorable for us along the lakeshore, so I might be waiting quite a bit more. If the Huron band swings far enough west you may do better than expected by the lakeshore. Does CLe or Buf still run the local models? Can't find them on either site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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