OHweather Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It looks like the Chardon cam shows maybe 3" on the ground. Looking at the long radar loop on COD's website, the bands just took too long to get their act together last night. It looks like northern Geauga, parts of Lake and Ashtabula will end up with around 3" give or take due to a brief period of decent snows this morning, but probably not quite as much as I thought. Got 0.2" here. All three models get really cold by the middle of next week at the latest. With the PV sitting just to our north and Lake Erie not frozen, this could be our best opportunity yet. It has almost a week to change though so I'll reserve my excitement until we get to the weekend at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It looks like the Chardon cam shows maybe 3" on the ground. Looking at the long radar loop on COD's website, the bands just took too long to get their act together last night. It looks like northern Geauga, parts of Lake and Ashtabula will end up with around 3" give or take due to a brief period of decent snows this morning, but probably not quite as much as I thought. Got 0.2" here. All three models get really cold by the middle of next week at the latest. With the PV sitting just to our north and Lake Erie not frozen, this could be our best opportunity yet. It has almost a week to change though so I'll reserve my excitement until we get to the weekend at least. Hopefully we can get a decent set-up next week. Lots of potential as you mentioned. Today's model runs should provide a good idea of the storm track for the weekend. Regardless, we'll probably have an hour or two of mixed precip turning to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Evidently, you can now download radar data from COD's website, save it, and upload it elsewhere. Pretty cool! Anyways, you can see the issue with last night's lake effect. The winds never stopped shifting, so the bands kept moving. Rates weren't heavy enough to add up to much without a steady-state band. Cloud tops actually got to 6-8k feet at CLE through the night so they got right up to the inversion height, but limited moisture depth couldn't be overcome due to the shifting winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 From driving around, there is really not much snow at all. Alot of bare ground surprisingly between fairmount and 322. Once into chardon, there is a little more than we had at home. I'd say an inch or so left on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Enjoy the snow. Big warmup coming this weekend. Temperatures look to climb well into the 40s by Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Enjoy the snow. Big warmup coming this weekend. Temperatures look to climb well into the 40s by Saturday night. What are your thoughts on the storm? What model has a better handle on things? Gotta wonder if this storm trends east like the last storm. Not that it will matter precip wise as it will be a rainer locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Ouch at CLE already mentioning SW winds next week regarding LES potential with the next cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Ouch at CLE already mentioning SW winds next week regarding LES potential with the next cold shot.I saw that, but every model appears to show NW at some point, maybe SW for brief periods ahead of any clippers. Euro was especially fun looking in terms of possible lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I saw that, but every model appears to show NW at some point, maybe SW for brief periods ahead of any clippers. Euro was especially fun looking in terms of possible lake effect. Another SW wind event would be awful... Next weeks probably our last shot with open water. As you mentioned, we'll probably see the flow shift quite a bit next week but overall there looks to be periods with a favorable direction. The period after the clipper looks ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 A quick glance at the 12z GFS looks pretty good for lake effect snow chances next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 A quick glance at the 12z GFS looks pretty good for lake effect snow chances next week. Awesome! Plus the clipper should bring a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The 12z Euro would be a long duration W-NW flow event starting Monday through Thursday with a clipper thrown in Tuesday. The airmass is bitterly cold with 850mb temps below -20C except for Tuesday when the clipper goes by. As long as there's some moisture which there should be with any little shortwaves that go by it'd be a great setup. The rain this weekend should ensure the western basin is open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The 12z Euro would be a long duration W-NW flow event starting Monday through Thursday with a clipper thrown in Tuesday. The airmass is bitterly cold with 850mb temps below -20C except for Tuesday when the clipper goes by. As long as there's some moisture which there should be with any little shortwaves that go by it'd be a great setup. The rain this weekend should ensure the western basin is open. Great to hear. When does your snow map come out . But seriously, it does look like a great set-up... one that we haven't seen in quite some time, especially in January. And seeing the glass half-full the rain and mild temps this weekend are a plus for open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Nice timing on the warm-up. Slush trails just starting to form by Toledo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah, it would be nice to be rewarded for our mild December by a January LES event. The lake will probably start to freeze next week. The GFS, Euro and Canadian all agree on how cold it will be more or less but differ on the clipper and how much moisture will be around. If we keep a more WNW flow we'd be able to get away with a drier airmass due to a longer fetch. As always, lots of details to work out, but a deep trough with very cold air sitting just to our north for days is a good look for decent LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 CLE is being quite conservative with temperatures this weekend. Both the NAM and GFS have highs approaching 50, with CLE calling for 42. With these warm air intrusions always over performing, I'd bet on a 50 degree high. This is one time where I want to see a full on torch in January. It would be nice to have a completely ice free lake before the cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 CLE is being quite conservative with temperatures this weekend. Both the NAM and GFS have highs approaching 50, with CLE calling for 42. With these warm air intrusions always over performing, I'd bet on a 50 degree high. This is one time where I want to see a full on torch in January. It would be nice to have a completely ice free lake before the cold shot. Exactly. Throw a couple inches of rain on top of 50 degree temps and I wouldn't complain. The strong winds the last few days have prevented ice forming on the western basin. Had there been calm nights I'm sure there would be a lot of ice by now. Bring the torch and rain... we should all benefit from it next week. Looking at the models now... there appears to be a 12-18 hour window for LES on Monday/Tuesday, then again after the clipper passes. It will certainly look and feel a lot more like Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Just glancing on my phone, the GFS and Euro appear to get cold enough for some lake enhanced by Sunday evening with a NW flow too before true LES starts on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Just glancing on my phone, the GFS and Euro appear to get cold enough for some lake enhanced by Sunday evening with a NW flow too before true LES starts on Monday. Just read cle's disco... Almost unreadable. But yeah, thing should gets going Sunday night. Just gotta hope that the flow is favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Tomorrow is looking like one of the most widespread rain events for the region in about 4 months. While we came just a few tenths short last year of making a top ten wettest list, it was nonetheless wet. Looks like 2015 will be more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wow... didn't take long for ice cover to increase. Hopefully this melts with the warmer temps and rain. Strong winds should disperse the ice as well. Everything still seems to be on track for a decent LES event next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wow... didn't take long for ice cover to increase. Hopefully this melts with the warmer temps and rain. Strong winds should disperse the ice as well. Everything still seems to be on track for a decent LES event next week. Even the euro had over 1.5" of rain this weekend and temps getting into the low 50s. That ice will be toast, but rapidly forming again next week. I'm just hoping that winds are WNW enough next week. I don't want to see a Lake County and points NE event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Even the euro had over 1.5" of rain this weekend and temps getting into the low 50s. That ice will be toast, but rapidly forming again next week. I'm just hoping that winds are WNW enough next week. I don't want to see a Lake County and points NE event. Yeah, that ice will have no problem melting. Still a long ways out but the flow looks solidly WNW to NW. The west side on east should be in the game unless things change significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 This would be ideal...very cold WNW flow with deep synoptic moisture, with us still in a cyclonic flow. I will forgive the last few weeks if something like this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Things still look good on the models for next week. Looks like this weekends storm heads for Toledo... Almost the same track as the last storm. Fine details aside... Moisture looks to be the key ingredient in the les mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 A little icy out there this morning. Cle mentioning significant snows next week in the hwo. Should be the most eventful week in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 It looks like tomorrow evening the remaining deform snow moves through. It won't be much, but some lake enhancement should occur in a WNW flow as the deform moves through so I think most of us in the Snowbelt will get an inch or two tomorrow evening. Later tomorrow night pure LES takes over. The parameters are similar to Tuesday night. There might be a little more instability, but moisture depth and inversion heights are similar. The NAM shows just a slightly north of due west wind which would keep things probably north of 322 up towards Chardon, while the GFS would be WNW enough to get the better snow as far SW as the 480 corridor out into Solon and probably even where I am. The Euro is in between. Regardless, it looks like a mainly light "event" Sunday night into Monday...1-2" from the deform/lake enhancement Sunday evening, and then another 1-3" wherever the lake effect sets up. The GFS brought the clipper back north a little bit, with the 0z Euro and 12z GFS both showing .2-.3" of QPF across northern Ohio. Ratios will be decent with the clipper, probably close to 20:1. That does imply a 4-6" snowfall, however the snow will be quick hitting and omega looks modest in the DGZ, so I'm thinking more of a 2-4" with the clipper. Behind the clipper the flow looks WNW with increasing moisture and instability Tuesday night, with the GFS and Euro both showing a surface trough dropping across the lake Wednesday morning. This may support a primary single band from northern Lorain and Cuyahoga points east that drops south on Wednesday, with a multi-band setup taking hold in a NW flow by Wednesday afternoon. The instability and equilibrium heights progged by the GFS are more impressive than any of the November events for Wednesday and Wednesday night with impressive moisture depth to over 10k feet. My one concern is the GFS shows very dry dew points at CLE which may hurt us with a NW flow, however the GFS is going to under-do heat and moisture flux off of the Great Lakes, so I imagine that as the NAM gets in range it will look better with the low level moisture. If we get into range and the NAM does show higher dew points, I'd imagine that the eye-popping parameters and also conditioning from Lake Michigan would allow decent snows to continue in the NW flow Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. It will be cold enough by Wednesdy afternoon to stunt snow growth somewhat, so ratios might be held to 15-20:1 outside of any intense bands. The winds start going west on Thursday and eventually southwest by Thursday evening which should push the lake effect up the eastern lakeshore. So, it looks like a little snow Sunday evening through Monday...a general light snow with the clipper on Tuesday...a very good setup for lake effect Wednesday...with the lake effect winding down Thursday. Sounds fun to me at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 What an awful January day... steady rain and 39 degrees. Can't wait to get rid of this weather. OHWeather - Great detail on next week. It's going to seem like Winter for a change. Big differences between the GFS and NAM on wind direction (looking at the bufkit output). GFS has the winds coming around to anywhere between 300-280 tomorrow night/Monday so that should be good enough for those between 322 and 422. NAM keeps a due west flow at 270. Behind the clipper we should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 As always, temps over performing in this situation. I'm surprised CLE went so conservative with highs today, easily hit 50 by 5pm. I also don't know why they are going with lows in the lower 40's overnight, I'm doubtful we drop much if at all overnight: Zone forecast for Cuyahoga tonight: Rain. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. The airport is "finally" running a snowfall deficit for the season as of today, a whopping 0.1" below the seasonal norm. So if the clipper and lake effect this week pans out, we're still on track to have a halfway decent winter (looking at the big picture) despite one of the worst December's on record for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 As always, temps over performing in this situation. I'm surprised CLE went so conservative with highs today, easily hit 50 by 5pm. I also don't know why they are going with lows in the lower 40's overnight, I'm doubtful we drop much if at all overnight: Zone forecast for Cuyahoga tonight: Rain. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. The airport is "finally" running a snowfall deficit for the season as of today, a whopping 0.1" below the seasonal norm. So if the clipper and lake effect this week pans out, we're still on track to have a halfway decent winter (looking at the big picture) despite one of the worst December's on record for snowfall. Looking at their forecast graphics, they have temps quickly rising into the lower 50's tonight, but have lower 40's right about now (which is several degrees too cool) which is where that low comes from. Cincinnati is pushing 60, so I wonder if we can get like 57 or 58 as a pre-dawn high tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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