OHweather Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I'm still not sure on this one. I just can't get over a period of extreme instability with a favorable fetch with winds not moving much for almost 12 hours tonight through early tomorrow afternoon, and then only gradually shifting to the W and eventually SW. Normally a very dry airmass wins out over extreme instability, but there is some moisture and we have a long fetch, and it's not impossible we get a Lake Michigan connection, especially early on in the event. With the winds not moving much, if a band forms late tonight (which I feel decent about) it may not get disrupted as much as I initially thought. Even if it's snowing half an inch to an inch per hour under it (as opposed to something like 2" per hour), several hours of a band will easily push places up to advisory or warning criteria snows. The more I look at the models there really isn't much of a trough moving through...it looks more like ridging trying to build in from the west altering the winds a bit...but we should still hold on to some convergence in the Snowbelt downwind of the lake tomorrow afternoon, with the convergence really intensifying in the evening as temps drop over land. My other big debate is Cuyahoga County. If banding doesn't get disrupted tomorrow, the wind direction supports banding into northern and eastern Cuyahoga County for several hours...which would be long enough for at least advisory criteria to be reached. With somewhat questionable moisture and the models weakening the convergence for a time tomorrow I still think keeping the highest amounts out of Cuyahoga County is probably the right call...but if the convergence and hence any banding is more persistent tomorrow, which is possible (let's get real, the NAM and GFS are way too low resolution to try to resolve that), I don't see why someone in the higher terrain in east-central or northeast Cuyahoga County couldn't also get a 6" amount. Due to some mitigating factors I'm still OK with the map I made this morning, but I'm less confident than I normally am and can see fairly easily how this could overperform some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Currently 46 degrees out we're getting a light rain/snow mix in Oberlin. Definitely wasn't expecting that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Currently 46 degrees out we're getting a light rain/snow mix in Oberlin. Definitely wasn't expecting that!Wow! Dew points in the 10s must be helping the snow make it to the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Good analysis OHweather. Seems like a good call at this point. These events do seem to surprise some. I can see if the winds don't disrupt the band tomorrow, the totals will definitely be more substantial....somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Good analysis OHweather. Seems like a good call at this point. These events do seem to surprise some. I can see if the winds don't disrupt the band tomorrow, the totals will definitely be more substantial....somewhere. Agree. Even with my forecast as is (assuming it doesn't over-perform), I'd still issue advisories for Lake, Geauga and Ashtabula...and at least consider going for one for Cuyahoga too...especially since it's the first accumulating snow of the season. We should find out what CLE's going to do soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Ehh CLE is going to punt this another shift. Leaving the watch as is for Ashtabula and NW PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Ehh CLE is going to punt this another shift. Leaving the watch as is for Ashtabula and NW PA Probably a good call. Dry air and strong winds are two bad signs. Warm lake is about the only thing going at this point. Not to be a Debbie downer but just not feeling good about this. I would much rather preserve the lake warmth for a better event. 1-2" out this way is my final call. Wouldn't be surprised at a trace. NWPA should do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Probably a good call. Dry air and strong winds are two bad signs. Warm lake is about the only thing going at this point. Not to be a Debbie downer but just not feeling good about this. I would much rather preserve the lake warmth for a better event. 1-2" out this way is my final call. Wouldn't be surprised at a trace. NWPA should do ok.The storm pulling out faster and letting dry air in really killed this one. We have the long fetch and good instability but yeah, dry air is often killer. The winds don't look too strong by late tonight though but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Home webcam shows grass covered...maybe a few inches. We look to have been on the edge of a band...though slightly disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Actually the band appears to be getting better organized. Why is the band not using more fetch from the lake? Looks like it begins just off the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Actually the band appears to be getting better organized. Why is the band not using more fetch from the lake? Looks like it begins just off the shoreline. It is using the full fetch...and you can see it better on satellite...but because of the dry air it doesn't start showing up on radar for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 I had my first freeze of the season last night with a low of 31. BKL also had their first freeze last night too. Just a light dusting in Lakewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 CLE needs an advisory for Cuyahoga right now. Really inconsistent handling of this storm. Went watch for Ashtabula and NW PA...then they just go advisory for Erie County...then expand the advisories 5 hours later...and now the heaviest snow may be falling outside of the advisory area. Welcome to lake effect snow I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 It is using the full fetch...and you can see it better on satellite...but because of the dry air it doesn't start showing up on radar for a while. Ah ok makes sense thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Really solid band near Cleveland. They just issued a short term forecast alert, but it needs an advisory. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM DOWNTOWN EASTWARD TO MAYFIELD HEIGHTSWILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...GREATLY REDUCINGVISIBILITY AND ACCUMULATING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWWHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST EAST OF CLEVELAND. USECAUTION WHEN DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 The winds look like they're still taking on a bit more of a northerly component. We'll see if that disrupts the band or if it just shifts south a little but keeps going. Edit: and there's the advisory for Cuyahoga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Saw on twitter 3" reported in chesterland and middlefield. Looks like close to that at home. I'd be curious what NEOH comes in with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 3" imby. Sun out, radar looks less than impressive. No banner LES events here for a couple winters now - lots of cold air "wasted", hope that will change this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 It looks like it's snowing very hard downtown right now on traffic cams, but the band is slowly moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 I'll be curious to see what amounts come in. Radar seemed impressive for a few hours, but local webcams aren't that impressive. Perhaps the area around Mayfield and 271 will come in with an advisory total, but it looks like warm ground is melting the snow from below after the showers pass. We'll see when CLE records their first inch of snow for the season, but I have a feeling we'll be waiting a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Just got home. I've got 3.75" on my deck. Amazing southern cutoff. Spotty accumulations on 422 then on 306 until Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 I'll be curious to see what amounts come in. Radar seemed impressive for a few hours, but local webcams aren't that impressive. Perhaps the area around Mayfield and 271 will come in with an advisory total, but it looks like warm ground is melting the snow from below after the showers pass. We'll see when CLE records their first inch of snow for the season, but I have a feeling we'll be waiting a bit. I'd have to imagine a few spots in that area east into parts of Geauga squeaked in advisory amounts or at least got close, but outside of the band this morning most areas are struggling to hit the low end of predicted amounts. The hi-res models still insist on one more burst tonight over the heart of the Snowbelt...maybe that can push a few areas up another inch or two. Since it was the first accumulating snow of the season and a lot of the snow fell in a fairly short time I'm ok with the advisory this go around even if it's marginal (well go figure I was clambering for them to issue one) It definitely looks like the first inch at CLE has a good chance at having to wait till December at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Just got home. I've got 3.75" on my deck. Amazing southern cutoff. Spotty accumulations on 422 then on 306 until Washington.Huge bust on my part. Picked up close to 4" throughout the day. Crazy gradient locally.... Grass just 2 miles south to 4" or more at 87 and 306 this morning... A few miles north. That area may have been the jackpot. Wouldn't be shocked to see 6" reports around there.Really surprised winds came around enough to bring the band this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Huge bust on my part. Picked up close to 4" throughout the day. Crazy gradient locally.... Grass just 2 miles south to 4" or more at 87 and 306 this morning... A few miles north. That area may have been the jackpot. Wouldn't be shocked to see 6" reports around there. Really surprised winds came around enough to bring the band this far south. Another lack luster PNS from CLE. I feel like I have to wait for you or DTA to post to know how much snow falls in western Geauga County. No reports from eastern Cuyahoga or western Geauga. It's been like that for a while too and makes no sense, especially since the 271 corridor is very populated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Another lack luster PNS from CLE. I feel like I have to wait for you or DTA to post to know how much snow falls in western Geauga County. No reports from eastern Cuyahoga or western Geauga. It's been like that for a while too and makes no sense, especially since the 271 corridor is very populated. There used to be several spotters in the area. I'd say from pepper pike on east through rt. 87 did the best. Wonder what lakeeffectoh had... He is in chesterland I believe. Definitely need more spotters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 The last time CLE recorded more than an inch of snow was on March 1st of this year, which was one of the earlier ends to the snow season. With no significant accumulating snow on the horizon, it looks like they'll easily go over 9 months between 1 inch snowfalls. That's got to be close to a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 With less than a week left for November, it's looking like this month should be able to make the top 10 warmest November's list. Plugging in all the forecasted highs and lows for the last remaining days yields an average of 47.7 for CLE. Tenth warmest is 47.0, so there's quite a buffer if ends up trending colder the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Hope everyone is having a good thanskgiving. Great day today with temps around 60. While it sucks to torch this time of year it sure feels nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Happy thanksgiving all! Yep, very nice day outside today. Something we haven't had the past few thanksgivings. Still upper 50s out now. Keep that lake warm for the next cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 November was ugly(by winter standards) and December looks just as ugly. Plugging in the forecast temps over the weekend would make this the 4th warmest November on record at CLE. Lake Erie is still torching, so if we can get the right set up when/if an arctic blast arrives, the snow belts could cash in. Last winter we had some great set ups, but mostly frozen lakes. Funny how that always works. I wouldn't feel so bad about a much below average snowfall season if there was a nice widespread 12" storm thrown in. It's been quite a few years since Northeast Ohio was a jackpot in a synoptic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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