NEOH Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Good soaking rain today. Yard is starting to turn more green and trees are starting to turn as well. Hard to believe we are approaching the month where we may see first flakes or even accumulation. Nov 1 last year was first flakes, and the year before was the last week of October accumulating snow. The lake should be primed from the warm fall! Picked up 1.26" of rain yesterday. We really needed that. Definitely noticing the colors starting to pop. A lot of the leaves from the maples in my yard are wilting and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Finally getting some fall-like weather with the cool mornings and evenings. Trees seem to be changing rather fast now. Not sure what it means...if anything, but I have noticed a very high number of squirrels lately. Either running across the road or in the yard. Seems like a lot more than in years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Finally getting some fall-like weather with the cool mornings and evenings. Trees seem to be changing rather fast now. Not sure what it means...if anything, but I have noticed a very high number of squirrels lately. Either running across the road or in the yard. Seems like a lot more than in years past. Apparently those squirrels haven't seen recent runs of the CFS I'm a bit nervous about this winter...hopefully we can get some lake effect events even if we overall have a slow winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Apparently those squirrels haven't seen recent runs of the CFS I'm a bit nervous about this winter...hopefully we can get some lake effect events even if we overall have a slow winter. From what I'm reading November looks cool/cold. Maybe we'll get a decent early season LES event... those are the best IMO. Leaves have really started to change this week. Color is so so though. Seems like a lot of the leaves in my yard are just wilting and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Apparently those squirrels haven't seen recent runs of the CFS I'm a bit nervous about this winter...hopefully we can get some lake effect events even if we overall have a slow winter. Haha! Ya I hear ya. I'm kind of on the fence still. If its not a total torch, we can still get good Les, and not worry much about lake ice. On the other hand...see 2012 lol ( I think that was the recent dud) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOWSHOWERS WILL GET GOING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITHNORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THOUGH WITH VERY DRYAIR IN PLACE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS...RESTRICTED THE COVERAGE TOTHE AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GET GOING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THOUGH WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS...RESTRICTED THE COVERAGE TO THE AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. 850 temps get down to -6 or -7 Saturday night. Not sure what other parameters look like but that should be good enough for snow to mix in. Hopefully we don't get another October 2013. I still have dead branches hanging in the trees from that LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 850 temps get down to -6 or -7 Saturday night. Not sure what other parameters look like but that should be good enough for snow to mix in. Hopefully we don't get another October 2013. I still have dead branches hanging in the trees from that LES event. I don't think anything will stick right now. The airmass gets pretty dry by Friday night and through the weekend, and it's a short fetch. The airmass is also a bit warmer than the October 2013 event. So any showers could have some flakes mixed in Saturday or Saturday night, but the only chance at any accumulation would be in the higher terrain of NW PA if a Lake Huron band can establish itself...but even there I wouldn't expect much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 The recent NAM and GFS are looking better for a possible burst of lake effect precip Saturday night...but with 850mb temps of around -5C by that time and a northwest flow blowing lake modified inland and preventing a consolidated band from setting up, I still don't think there's any accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I live in Central Ohio, but will be in Ashtabula County all weekend for a wedding, so I'm semi-excited to see some flakes if it can materialize! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 15, 2015 Share Posted October 15, 2015 I'm sort of interested in Saturday night wherever the Huron connection sets up. Looks like a little shortwave moves through with a period of good moisture and extreme instability. 850mb temps of roughly -6C in a NW flow are sort of meh, but if the band can setup in the higher terrain of Geauga or (more likely) NW PA a 1-3" type accumulation wouldn't shock me by Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I'm sort of interested in Saturday night wherever the Huron connection sets up. Looks like a little shortwave moves through with a period of good moisture and extreme instability. 850mb temps of roughly -6C in a NW flow are sort of meh, but if the band can setup in the higher terrain of Geauga or (more likely) NW PA a 1-3" type accumulation wouldn't shock me by Sunday morning. While -6C isn't all that impressive... lake temps are still hovering near 60. Extreme instability to say the least. Looks like a 320-310 wind direction which isn't the best. Should be good for a few heavy bursts at times though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Mostly graupel and a few flakes coming down this morning. Surprised there isn't more activity over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 Looks like showers of graupel/snow have been fairly numerous over the last few hours. You're on the board for 2015-16 at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 A pretty good band has been over NEOH and dta for a while, I suspect they'll wake up to an inch or so of snow on the ground. CLE put out a special weather statement...parts of NW PA did alright it seems: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH236 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015OHZ012>014-022-023-089-PAZ001>003-180845-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MENTOR...CHARDON...JEFFERSON...RAVENNA...WARREN...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE236 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015SOME OF THE MORE PERSISTENT AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAVE STARTEDTO PRODUCE ACCUMULATION. LOCALLY SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OFERIE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA HAS SEEN UP TO 2 INCHES. THE REST OF THESNOWBELT HAS SEEN ONLY SPOTTY ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN AN INCH.THE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATEMORNING THEN START TO DECREASE. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS COULDSEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION.EVEN THOUGH ROADWAY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING...THEHEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW WILL STILL COVER THE ROADS AS THE RATE OFACCUMULATION EXCEEDS THE RATE OF MELT. AREAS OF SLIPPERY ROADSWILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING SO MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTIONAND PLAN ACCORDINGLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 I'm out of town this weekend, but I checked the webcam around 9am and there was a dusting in the grass. Might have been more earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 I'm out of town this weekend, but I checked the webcam around 9am and there was a dusting in the grass. Might have been more earlier this morning. I left town early yesterday morning as well. Wife said there was a dusting... that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 19, 2015 Author Share Posted October 19, 2015 Even along the lakeshore there were some intense graupel showers on Saturday. Still no freeze along the water, but Hopkins did hit 30 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The wind and rain should bring down most of the remaining leaves (at least imby). Pretty lackluster color around here this year. Can't remember a year like this. The leaves just seemed to wilt and fall... they didn't stay on the trees very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 With all these 70+ degree days and a generally mild fall, I can only imagine what the lake could produce when we get the first Arctic blast of the season. The buoy between Lorain and Pelee is reporting a water temp of 58 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Fantastic weather lately. Actually felt the slightest bit hot today. Keep that lake warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Fantastic weather lately. Actually felt the slightest bit hot today. Keep that lake warm! I was thinking the same thing... lets store up as much heat at possible. It's awesome outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I don't think the lake freezing in January will be an issue this year unless December goes against essentially every forecast out there. Even if we end up with somewhat below normal snow, one or two nice southern stream systems combined with a couple good LES events (by good I mean foot plus in the Snowbelt) would still make it fun...especially if it's backloaded and we get a nice busy period in maybe February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Keeping the lake warm only helps the snowlovers if there is a cold airmass aloft to create the lake effect snow. Personally, I like walking on a frozen Lake Erie, you know, like 5 feet from the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 MAYBE some graupel or wet snow flakes mixing in Friday into Saturday? If I don't see any snow when I'm in NE Ohio over Thanksgiving I suspect I may be waiting till Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 MAYBE some graupel or wet snow flakes mixing in Friday into Saturday? If I don't see any snow when I'm in NE Ohio over Thanksgiving I suspect I may be waiting till Christmas MAYBE some graupel or wet snow flakes mixing in Friday into Saturday? If I don't see any snow when I'm in NE Ohio over Thanksgiving I suspect I may be waiting till Christmas Yep, looks to be a little snow/mix in the forecast for Fri night and Saturday. It'll be nice to see some flakes. I was out of town in Oct when we had our first flakes. Have you seen this article ; http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/office/localinterest/enso.html There's a small section about lake effect and correlation with El ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 Lake Erie is a bath tub right now. Temperatures are running quite a few degrees higher than in previous years. Here along the lakeshore I've yet to have a first freeze. Wouldn't be surprised if that's still a few weeks off yet. I think lake effect this year will be a bit better than the past few years for these parts. That frozen lake the past two years really dampened what could have been some really amazing lake effect events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Yep, looks to be a little snow/mix in the forecast for Fri night and Saturday. It'll be nice to see some flakes. I was out of town in Oct when we had our first flakes. Have you seen this article ; http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/office/localinterest/enso.html There's a small section about lake effect and correlation with El ninos. Interesting. I will say that STRONG Ninos tend to still have a diminishing effect on NE Ohio snowfall, as with a dearth of synoptic storms and generally more mild air in general (which limits LES) would still dampen snowfall somewhat. However, having LES to fall back on makes an all out disaster much less likely as it only takes a couple of good cold shots to rack up snow quickly in the Snowbelt. I'm starting to think some modest accums on the order of an inch may be possible Friday night into Saturday in the Snowbelt...with a WNW flow and 850mb temps on the GFS and NAM of -6C to -8C, it should get cold enough inland under any bands for accumulations. The big inhibiting factor will be lowering inversions and gradual drying Friday night which will limit how much precip falls, but it could still be enough for some light accumulations in the Snowbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The lake effect potential today into tonight is interesting. I don't really have time to do a write-up because it's 3AM and I have a dynamic met exam at 10AM...however, deep ambient moisture to 10-15k feet, inversions of 10-15k feet and strong WSW winds should cause a strong convergence band to develop along the eastern lakeshore by later this morning. This band should hug the Lake/Ashtabula shoreline and move into NW PA and SW NY and could produce thunder and lightning. The winds gradually go more WNW and eventually NW later this afternoon into this evening as a trough moves through, which should push a decent band into the Cleveland metro before a more disorganized multi-banded setup develops by mid-evening. Lowering inversions should cause a weakening of lake effect tonight. 850mb temps will be right around -5 to -6C this afternoon and evening, possibly warming a bit tonight, with 925mb temps near 0C...both of these values are pretty marginal. I'm pretty hot on the idea of the convergence band along the eastern lakeshore into NW PA and SW NY kicking butt this afternoon with probably some thunder and lightning...so I think there's a better than 50/50 shot that dynamical cooling does the dirty work and allows for mainly snow by this afternoon in inland NW PA and SW NY under the band. With the possibility of heavy precip for several hours over similar areas, an advisory or even warning criteria snowfall amount in the higher terrain here wouldn't shock me...Lake and Ashtabula don't have the benifit of higher terrain, but some sloppy accums would be possible if the heavy band can in fact hug the lakeshore. In Cleveland proper and Geauga/Trumbull Counties the short duration nature of the heavier snows will also make accums more questionable...but heavier bursts could cause a quick, slushy accum late this afternoon into early this evening, especially in areas that have the benefit of a little more terrain. The bigger story may be an unanticipated impact on the evening rush. Most forecast outlets appear to be expecting all or mainly rain this afternoon, but with cold air aloft, any heavier showers should easily fall as snow or graupel. With winds possibly gusting to 35-45MPH, any heavier snow showers could cause quite a wintry scene for brief times, even if they don't accumulate. We shall see. Perhaps trying to understand cyclostrophic balance at 2AM has made me insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Great writeup! Looking forward to the first accumulation even if its not that much. Cle has about 1" in my pc. One year ago tomorrow was our first accums last year. That ended up being a great le event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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