Trent Posted August 25, 2015 Author Share Posted August 25, 2015 Pretty decent setup for lake effect rain and maybe some waterspouts fairly close to shore starting tonight. It's getting closer to being that time of year again after a very rainy but otherwise fairly benign summer. It sure was a rainy start to summer, but the rain faucet seemed to shut off in July. Here are the monthly maps: June July August A few areas with about 2" or less since July 1st. Northern Lorain and Cuyahoga seem to be the big winners for the summer in NE Ohio. Medina County really missed a lot of the action. There might be a few isolated spots in that county that had below average rainfall so far this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 It sure was a rainy start to summer, but the rain faucet seemed to shut off in July. Here are the monthly maps: June June.jpg July July.jpg August August.jpg A few areas with about 2" or less since July 1st. Northern Lorain and Cuyahoga seem to be the big winners for the summer in NE Ohio. Medina County really missed a lot of the action. There might be a few isolated spots in that county that had below average rainfall so far this summer. Yeah, it has been really dry since roughly mid July. A lot of that July rain fell in the first half of the month. Hopefully the fall and winter feature near or above normal precip as we are pretty dry right now..:and even in a warm winter in Cleveland if you have a reasonable amount of precip some is bound to fall as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 26, 2015 Share Posted August 26, 2015 A couple of personal weather stations in Lake County between Mentor and Painesville around 0.5-0.6" of rain today...a station in Geneva at 0.80" thus far. Not a bad lake effect setup...hopefully it's just a warm-up for what happens come November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 A couple of personal weather stations in Lake County between Mentor and Painesville around 0.5-0.6" of rain today...a station in Geneva at 0.80" thus far. Not a bad lake effect setup...hopefully it's just a warm-up for what happens come November. Quite an event this turned out to be. Looks like several stations have had over 1.2" of lake event rain since the event started. Easily would have been widespread foot snowfall totals had this been a few months later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Absolutely raw October like day. Don't think we had much heavy rain, but off and on mist and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted August 27, 2015 Author Share Posted August 27, 2015 CLE only hit a high of 62 today. Assuming it doesn't rise any during the late evening, this will tie the record low max of 62 back on August 26, 1910. Certainly felt very fall like. 62 is the normal high for October 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Quite an event this turned out to be. Looks like several stations have had over 1.2" of lake event rain since the event started. Easily would have been widespread foot snowfall totals had this been a few months later.I was hoping there'd be some waterspouts near shore with the setup but the only report I saw of one was near Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 Here is the 90 day precip % of normal map for the region. This would be for meteorological summer. There was quite the spread with areas in NW Ohio and along the lake getting 150%+ of normal rainfall. Akron and Medina and points south didn't fare so well. Of course, it was June that made the summer wet as a whole, but take a look at the July and August % of normal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Could really use a soaker locally. Amazing how dry it has become. Storms are popping but it looks like lakeshore areas will get lake breezed. Wonder if that line in MI will push southeast over the lake later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Could really use a soaker locally. Amazing how dry it has become. Storms are popping but it looks like lakeshore areas will get lake breezed. Wonder if that line in MI will push southeast over the lake later today. Getting a pretty good soaker now. Definitely needed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Hopefully the lake effect rain delivers this weekend. Picked up a whopping .02 from the rain and storms in the forecast the past few days. What a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 I'm pretty sure the lake enhanced/effect rain will deliver, and am actually worried it may deliver to the point where some flooding occurs this weekend. I'll be home this weekend and the Indians are playing the Tigers in Cleveland, so of course it will rain Pretty complicated forecast starting Friday afternoon in terms of when it will rain and how heavy it will be. A secondary cold front will move across NE Ohio early Friday afternoon with perhaps some widely scattered showers, and by evening some isentropic lift behind the front will overspread the area along with decent large scale ascent from a seasonably strong jet streak and positive vorticity advection overspreading the area. The 0z NAM has a nice surge of mid-level RH in this timeframe. This all should be enough to generate a period of synoptic rain Friday evening...however, the duration and intensity of the synoptic rain is uncertain. The hi-res NAM, Canadian, NMM and ARW for instance are sharper and slower with the trough and farther west with the surface low development Friday night into Saturday and have a 6-12 hour period of synoptic rain, while the standard 12km NAM and GFS are more progressive. The 12z Thursday Euro was slower than the 12km NAM and GFS but faster than the hi-res models and Canadian, and the 0z Euro which I just peaked at is a little slower and farther northwest with the synoptic rain. Given the trend overall over the last few model runs has been to slow everything down, and given the fact that closing off upper lows tend to progress slower than modelled, I'm going to conservatively lean towards the somewhat slower and farther west idea with synoptic rain Friday evening. I could see a general quarter inch of synoptic rain in the CLE area, maybe closer to 0.5" for CAK with maybe closer to an inch towards YNG. Even if the synoptic rain isn't heavy in CLE proper, with a NNE low level flow Friday evening, lake induced CAPE values of 500-1000 J/KG and good moisture, some lake enhancement of the rain is likely, which could push rain totals for the Friday afternoon-night timeframe to half an inch to an inch near the lake, with enhancement occurring on the west side too due to an easterly component to the winds. Shear is pretty bad above 5k feet Friday evening (but things do become better aligned later Friday night) which could keep things from getting out of control to an extent Friday night in the lake enhanced rain. Even the slower models pull the heavier synoptic rain east by Saturday morning, but the surface low tracking farther west and the upper trough closing off and moving east slower allows enough ambient moisture in the low to mid levels to hang back on Saturday for a more pure lake effect rain to continue. The GFS shows winds holding at NE through much of Saturday while the NAM has more due north winds that are somewhat better aligned...both models have lake to 850mb temp differentials of 15-18C during the day Saturday with limitless equilibrium levels. The GFS really dries things out for a while on Saturday while the NAM maintains better moisture...given the NAM is less progressive than the GFS and I'm leaning in that direction (if not even slower than the 12km NAM), I tend to think we'll stay moist enough on Saturday for lake effect to continue...I also think the winds will gradually back to a more northerly direction on Saturday. By Saturday evening the Euro, Canadian and some of the hi-res models close off the upper level trough pretty much over OH or just to our northeast (pay sites that have the Euro at a higher resolution and in more timesteps show it occurring) while the surface low tracks towards Lake Ontario. This is a nearly perfect evolution both aloft and at the surface for significant lake effect precipitation with a nearly due north wind. The 0z NAM develops an astounding thermodynamic profile Saturday evening with over 2000 J/KG of lake induced CAPE for several hours and well aligned winds below 10k feet. Most models slowly drop an inverted trough across Lake Erie Saturday night in a mainly north flow with an increase in moisture and as seen above unbelievable instability. The NAM and GFS are both a bit dry Saturday night, however the 0z Euro keeps 70% or higher RH at 700mb in place through 12z Sunday which would easily do the trick. The combination of a cyclonic flow...a surface trough...orographic lift in the N or NNW flow and extreme lake induced CAPE suggests that heavy rain is possible Saturday night in the primary and secondary belts. Conditions start to deteriorate for lake effect on Sunday as the low and trough begin moving east, but the winds will gradually turn more westerly and enough moisture and lake induced instability hangs around for light to moderate rain to continue much of the day in the Snowbelt. All told, between the shot of synoptic rain and some enhancement Friday night...off and on lake effect on Saturday...the potential for heavy lake effect Saturday night...and at least some lake effect continuing through much of Sunday...I don't see how areas within 20-30 miles of the lake from Lorain and Medina points east don't see at least 1" of rain from Friday PM through Sunday, and amounts of over 2-3" in several areas would not surprise me. 1-3" won't cause much flooding, but if it gets any higher there will be issues. That said, I was "lucky" enough to have the forecast earlier this evening for the website I help with and included this rain map for the weekend...in the text associated with the map I mentioned locally 3" or more of rain. Honestly after the 0z models came in slower with everything (which means more synoptic rain and better lake effect conditions hanging on for longer) I think this map may be conservative. If the hi-res models are right and we get 1-2" of synoptic rain Friday night, weekend totals could locally push 4-5" IMO! In addition to all the rain...although a northerly flow isn't ideal for waterspouts over the nearshore waters due to weaker convergence over the lake, the thermodynamic profile strongly supports waterspouts this weekend. Also, the NAM develops enough CAPE for small hail with any storms that roll in off the lake Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted September 11, 2015 Author Share Posted September 11, 2015 Nice write up as usual! Some of the high resolution models are also spitting out 5"+ rainfall totals over the next 48 hours as well. It's too bad we can't have this happen in the winter months. It wouldn't shock me if most areas in northeast Ohio get more liquid equivalent from lake effect rain in any given year versus snow. It seems like every season we get 2 or 3 significant lake effect rain events of over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Thanks! That's an interesting question regarding yearly liquid equivalents for LER vs LES. We definitely get more lake snow events each year than rain, but the rain events can produce more liquid equivalent easier due to the warmer atmosphere they occur in. This exact same event in winter could easily produce a widespread foot or two of snow but with only an inch of Liquid as opposed to potentially 2-3"+ of liquid. It looks like recent HRRR runs and the 6z NAM are slower and hence wetter with everything, so it'll be interesting to see how much liquid falls and if there's any flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Nice forecast OHWeather. You've got me excited about LER. It will be interesting to see what happens. Seems like conditions are extremely favorable. Hard to believe the sun exposed areas of my yard are toast after all of the rain earlier this Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Good writeup Ohweather! I'm pretty excited about this as well. My yard is pretty pathetic looking lately. Could definitely use the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Thanks! We may even get the ever elusive Huron connection too Saturday night into Sunday. A lot of the rain has been short lived storms recently which runs off and doesn't soak in well. My lawn was decently green 3 weeks ago but it's been dry since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 The synoptic rain has done really well...a lot of areas should end up with near or over 1" of synoptic rain, with a heavy burst getting ready to push in now. There's been some modest lake enhancement evident since about midnight from western Cuyahoga northeast through northern Lake County, which is pretty typical for a NE wind...it's looking a bit better now. If I have time Saturday I may try to go up to the lake and watch for waterspouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted September 12, 2015 Author Share Posted September 12, 2015 Pushing 2" of rain here. It looks like the radar estimate totals are really under done. We'll see how much more rain we can pick up through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 It still looks like we'll get a little trough to drop across the lake in a few hours. The NAM and RAP both have lake induced CAPE increasing to over 2000 J/KG by late this afternoon with humidity up to roughly 15,000 feet and well aligned winds up to about 10k feet. I'd have to think thunder/graupel and possibly waterspouts will accompany any activity later along with heavy rain. There's been a persistent lake effect band in northern Erie County PA into eastern Ashtabula County and the KHZY ASOS (or is it AWOS? not sure) suggests that radar is under-estimating rates beneath the band by at least half if not more. HZY has measured 2.12" of rain as of noon and that lake effect band is probably producing 0.25-0.75" per hour rates beneath it so there's probably a lot of ponding there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 Looks like a decent band starting to stretch into geauga county now. I've had off and on light rain or mist for a while. Should start picking up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 CLE ended up going with a flood advisory for Ashtabula County with some flooding reported in Conneaut. They said up to 2" fell in that band after 10AM this morning on top of what fell last night. The latest RAP runs are absolutely off the charts for this evening with strong omega, decreasing shear above 10k feet and the aforementioned high RH air and instability. We shall see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 12, 2015 Share Posted September 12, 2015 Cuyahoga county getting a lot of rain now. There have been several small circulations on radar with the showers over the lake, and I have reason to suspect a waterspout may have moved onshore in Vermillion and based on a rumor of debris in the air and a store being damaged in Vermillion (I have no way of verifying the source). Edit: pictures of minor roof and door damage to a building in Vermillion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted September 13, 2015 Author Share Posted September 13, 2015 Cuyahoga county getting a lot of rain now. There have been several small circulations on radar with the showers over the lake, and I have reason to suspect a waterspout may have moved onshore in Vermillion and based on a rumor of debris in the air and a store being damaged in Vermillion (I have no way of verifying the source). Edit: pictures of minor roof and door damage to a building in Vermillion This is turning out to be quite the rain event, just as you predicted. There will definitely be widespread 3" totals. I went down to the lake earlier when some of the cells were about to make landfall but I didn't see any rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 This is turning out to be quite the rain event, just as you predicted. There will definitely be widespread 3" totals. I went down to the lake earlier when some of the cells were about to make landfall but I didn't see any rotation. I saw one circulation just off shore near Bratenahl on radar, but nothing else that made it close to shore in Cuyahoga County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERIwx Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 I'm in Erie, PA. We have had about 3.5"/rain as of now. Showers are starting to lighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted September 13, 2015 Share Posted September 13, 2015 Some 4-5"+ amounts in Lake and Ashtabula Counties! Very impressive 1100 PM HEAVY RAIN CONNEAUT 41.93N 80.58W09/12/2015 M5.45 INCH ASHTABULA OH MESONET1100 PM HEAVY RAIN CONCORD 41.40N 81.85W09/12/2015 M4.08 INCH LAKE OH MESONET1100 PM HEAVY RAIN EASTLAKE 41.67N 81.42W09/12/2015 M3.38 INCH LAKE OH MESONET1100 PM HEAVY RAIN NORTHEAST OHIO APT. 41.78N 80.70W09/12/2015 M2.68 INCH ASHTABULA OH ASOS1100 PM HEAVY RAIN CLEVELAND HOPKINS AIRPO 41.41N 81.85W09/12/2015 M2.76 INCH CUYAHOGA OH ASOS1100 PM HEAVY RAIN ERIE AIRPORT 42.08N 80.18W09/12/2015 M3.74 INCH ERIE PA ASOS It also appears that there were two cheap tornadoes in the Cleveland area this weekend; a brief touchdown near I-90 and Crocker around 5:30PM on Friday...there's video of a condensation on the ground with what appears to be some debris flying up of that tornado...and last night a little after 5:00PM a waterspout made landfall in Vermillion and caused minor roof and door damage to the cities maintenance garage. Hopefully the NWS makes them both official because there's strong evidence for both tornadoes being on the ground...the Vermillion waterspout/tornado even had a small radar signature, which is impressive for a waterspout that far from the radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 NW Ohio and NE Indiana both had a very wet summer compared to average. These areas were among the wettest in the country, considering climate division precipitation rankings. NW Ohio climate division had the record wettest summer. link to NOAA (similar plot) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/divisionalpcpnrank/201506-201508.gif Summer precipitation in Ohio ranked 114 out of 121 (i.e. it was the 8th wettest summer in 121 years) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/statewidepcpnrank/201506-201508.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Good soaking rain today. Yard is starting to turn more green and trees are starting to turn as well. Hard to believe we are approaching the month where we may see first flakes or even accumulation. Nov 1 last year was first flakes, and the year before was the last week of October accumulating snow. The lake should be primed from the warm fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 The modeling of the Joaquin remnants remind me of Sandy a few years ago. Could be quite the washout Sunday night and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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