dta1984 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Seasonal snowfall is at 90.1". Looks like we are almost identical. Haven't been out to measure depth but I'd assume we are close. Yep, some light snows this week with bigger potential over the weekend. I'm almost ready to waive the white flag and say let's get a big one, then move on to a warm/dry March.Awesome, that's within a few inches of what I've got so far. Weekend still looking good, but not sure how I feel about being in the bullseye (gfs) this far out. Edit; the key is if Trent is optimistic! He was optimistic for last weekend and it turned out great! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Awesome, that's within a few inches of what I've got so far. Weekend still looking good, but not sure how I feel about being in the bullseye (gfs) this far out. Edit; the key is if Trent is optimistic! He was optimistic for last weekend and it turned out great! Lol. Yeah. Being in a GFS bullseye this far out is never a good sign. Nonetheless it's nice eye candy. However, I like where we sit at this point. I do wonder if a frozen Lake Erie will have any impact as we get closer? We usually can rely on some slushy areas or large cracks, but after this cold spell and the cold predicted later this week, that's probably off the table. Perhaps if we do get a low that rides close to NE Ohio, like earlier this month, the frozen lake could help keep temps down a bit for the lakeshore areas. It would be extremely painful to watch this cut to our NW after having record cold the week prior and more cold afterwards, but such is winter reality for Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah. Being in a GFS bullseye this far out is never a good sign. Nonetheless it's nice eye candy. However, I like where we sit at this point. I do wonder if a frozen Lake Erie will have any impact as we get closer? We usually can rely on some slushy areas or large cracks, but after this cold spell and the cold predicted later this week, that's probably off the table. Perhaps if we do get a low that rides close to NE Ohio, like earlier this month, the frozen lake could help keep temps down a bit for the lakeshore areas. It would be extremely painful to watch this cut to our NW after having record cold the week prior and more cold afterwards, but such is winter reality for Ohio. I just can't see this storm cutting north of this area... Could be very wrong of course. The frozen lake will definitely help. At this point I wouldn't count on any lake enhacement given the ice cover. Not often we get a perfect track but we've done better than usual this winter in terms of synoptic snows. Even if the low tracks to YNG we'd get a nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not a good 0z GFS run for us. 1002 mb low passing over CAK and the 850 mb 0C line going all the way to Toledo. I have my doubts that line would really go that far north given that track, but the north trends are concerning. The 0z GGEM was a great run for us but it's not the most comforting feeling having to ride the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'd say bring the low up to Detroit, drench you guys with rain and southerly winds, and move some ice around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On a more serious note, through Tuesday the average temp at CLE for February was 17.2, which if it held would be the 5th coldest February on record. The coldest on record is 15.2 in 1875. Here are the forecast mins/maxes at CLE for the next week from the weather service. Hourly weather graphs were used at times when a min was occurring at midnight on a given day: Wednesday: Low 1F, high 13F (7) Thursday: Low -6F, high 4F (-1) Friday: Low -10F, high 11F (0.5) Saturday: Low 10F, high 30F (20) Sunday: Low 7F, high 26F (16.5) Monday: Low 3F, high 17F (10) Tuesday: Low 3F, high 21F (12) The only day that appears likely to be warmer than the current daily average for February is Saturday. It is possible that we get a few degrees warmer on Saturday, but I also believe the mins early next week could also get a little colder, so it all comes out in the wash. Either way, when added in, the next week's forecast takes the February average down to 14.5 through Tuesday the 24th! Thereafter, a quick look at the GFS and Euro (yes, it may change), shows that it may be hard for the average to come up much after that. We've got a shot I think! *One potential fly in the ointment is the snow completely melting by early next week, which is probably very unlikely. That would make those mins at least harder to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'd say bring the low up to Detroit, drench you guys with rain and southerly winds, and move some ice around How dare you . People will be cooling drinks on Memorial day with the lake ice. Heck, I'm almost ready to sacrifice the snow for some warmth. Must be getting old. Nice steady light snow falling. Flake size has improved as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not a good 0z GFS run for us. 1002 mb low passing over CAK and the 850 mb 0C line going all the way to Toledo. I have my doubts that line would really go that far north given that track, but the north trends are concerning. The 0z GGEM was a great run for us but it's not the most comforting feeling having to ride the GGEM. I wouldn't get too caught up in any one model run at this point. I'll give it until Friday before taking anything seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 How dare you . People will be cooling drinks on Memorial day with the lake ice. Heck, I'm almost ready to sacrifice the snow for some warmth. Must be getting old. Nice steady light snow falling. Flake size has improved as well. I want to go for the coldest February record, we don't have these chances often. That record has stood since 1875! After that, we can get a "warmer" (say 25-30 degree) big dog the first week of March when I'm in town. Then we can torch the last three weeks of March and charge the lake for the inevitable April LES snowstorm (with how cold the last two Springs have been I'm surprised we haven't pulled off something in April either year of note, although there were half decent late March LES events the last two years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 CLE's total is absurd. You would have to think they will revise their total. Right around 7"' here. That band on the southwest side has been parked for a long time. Probably approaching double digits there. ice cover is hurting the east side right now.... Not sure the Huron band will connect to Erie. Is the wind blowing the snow at CLE causing the low totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Is the wind blowing the snow at CLE causing the low totals? That seems to be the going theory. Reading the New England threads during windy storms, BOS appears to have the same issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Is the wind blowing the snow at CLE causing the low totals? Not always the situation. The staff at the CLE NWS don't even measure the snow. They use an FAA observer who isn't affiliated with the NWS. Doesn't that make sense?! CLE NWS is no more than a couple hundred yards from the runway at CLE. Certainly not an ideal spot for measure snow. But even in light wind situations they still are not accurate. It would seem to me that regardless of winds, CLE has an issue with snowfall reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I want to go for the coldest February record, we don't have these chances often. That record has stood since 1875! After that, we can get a "warmer" (say 25-30 degree) big dog the first week of March when I'm in town. Then we can torch the last three weeks of March and charge the lake for the inevitable April LES snowstorm (with how cold the last two Springs have been I'm surprised we haven't pulled off something in April either year of note, although there were half decent late March LES events the last two years) Ok. Its a deal. But it better torch the last 3 weeks of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I wouldn't get too caught up in any one model run at this point. I'll give it until Friday before taking anything seriously. Oh I agree ... still too early to give up on this. A lot of model runs to go. But the 12Z runs so far haven't given me any more cause for optimism. I'd feel a lot better if we had a nice Hudson Bay high pressing south, but we don't have that and I just don't see anything to keep this from trending north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 You don't even need to read the storm threads to figure out trends. If the the main thread has little or no new posts after the latest models, it means there was a nice hit for Ohio. If the thread has lots of new posts after a model run, it means it has trended NW. Nice snowfall this afternoon. Enough to freshen things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You don't even need to read the storm threads to figure out trends. If the the main thread has little or no new posts after the latest models, it means there was a nice hit for Ohio. If the thread has lots of new posts after a model run, it means it has trended NW. Nice snowfall this afternoon. Enough to freshen things up. Haha so true! Unfortunately that seems to be the trend today, but it's still several days away. Though the euro isn't half bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like CLE thinks the low will ride over the top of us. Probably not a bad call but still a long ways to go with this storm. All snow along the lakeshore is bold... but with the airmass in place and frozen lake seems plausible. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE SURFACE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE SEEMINGLY EVER-PERSISTENT WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUCKLES AND LETS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST US. A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND RETREATING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION/NORTHEAST US. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS SNOW...LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY WITH A SATURATED AIRMASS IN A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WITH THE LOW ITSELF MOVING OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER SW NY AND SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH TIME. THE PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW SUPPORTS SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WITH A MIX OR POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO RAINWELL INLAND...BEFORE COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW BRINGS A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW AGAIN LATER SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nice short lived "white out band" rolling through right now to keep the snowpack fresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Surprised to see the lake effect machine kick in overnight. I'm sure the favored areas picked up several inches. Even the airport looked to get in on the action. They even reported 0.03 liquid in one hour with single digit temperatures and visibilities below a half mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Picked up around 2" last night. Nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Picked up around 2" last night. Nice surprise.Ya the bands looked decent last night. Seems like there was one near the airport too that Trent mentioned. I wonder of it was all from Erie, or seeded by another lake. I came in at 2.5", but that would include whatever fell during the day yesterday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 850 mB temperatures for CLE tonight are -28 C for the GFS and -29 C for the NAM. That's a bit colder than a few nights ago. Will it be even colder tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 850 mB temperatures for CLE tonight are -28 C for the GFS and -29 C for the NAM. That's a bit colder than a few nights ago. Will it be even colder tonight? If the lake effect clouds can diminish quickly enough, I think a few degrees colder is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If the lake effect clouds can diminish quickly enough, I think a few degrees colder is a good bet. Some very light snow falling now but these clouds won't last long tonight. We'll see if I can beat my weekly low of -18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Trends for the weekend storm have been positive for us. Positive is a relative term though. Even if the storm ends up being weak and southeast, it's much better than torching into the 40s with an inch of rain as a strong low passes to our north and west. By keeping this storm to our southeast we also keep temperatures down enough to keep the coldest February on record in play. We should be able to break today's record low at 11:59pm and tomorrow's looks like a lock. That would be 5 record lows this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Trends for the weekend storm have been positive for us. Positive is a relative term though. Even if the storm ends up being weak and southeast, it's much better than torching into the 40s with an inch of rain as a strong low passes to our north and west. By keeping this storm to our southeast we also keep temperatures down enough to keep the coldest February on record in play. We should be able to break today's record low at 11:59pm and tomorrow's looks like a lock. That would be 5 record lows this week. We will probably sneak out with a few inches still. I'd imagine anything that falls would be low ratio concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Narrow lake band going with decent flake size for being 1 degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nice bump on the SREF plumes. CLE with a mean of over 4", but a nice cluster of 6 members in the 6-9" range. Still decent potential in these parts as we get within 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 -19 F at home this morning. I took a drive across Geauga to Chardon around 6:30 a.m. to see if the Weather Underground temps were reasonable. Temperature was a function of elevation, -13 F at the highest spot east of Alpine ski area on Rt 322 in Munson to -25 F in Russell on Rt 87 just west of the West Woods (the lowest part of my journey). My car thermometer has always been very accurate and I went fast to keep the sensor aspirated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Holy crap. A PNS in Ashtabula County is reporting -39, which would tie the all-time state record. Obviously, I can't vouch for its precision but still... The two closest PNS's are reporting -29 and -30, so it's definitely in the ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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