OHweather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snow has increased again along the shore. We'll see how long it lasts. With temperatures plunging below zero by the evening, it's going to be extremely treacherous. There's an outside chance that tomorrow's high will actually be colder than the record low for the date of -4. Chatham NNW of Cleveland on the north shore has still been sitting at 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility still, even with little discernible on radar or satellite in that area. I still think there will be a general decrease in the snow soon...the burst along the shore appears to be with another wind shift dropping south judging by radar...but with the blowing snow and falling temps, things will be very slow to improve where even just light to moderate snow continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't like to exaggerate, but this might be one of the heaviest snow rates I've experienced. Just incredible. whiteout.png great pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH1245 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...PERIODS OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BYANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST....SNOW SQUALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING THEAREA. VISIBILITY IS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO IN SOME OF THE HEAVIERBURSTS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SNOW WILL STARTTO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 2 PM BUT INCREASINGNORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHTBEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FRIGIDAIR TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOWZERO OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.OHZ010>013-020>023-150145-/O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0011.150214T1745Z-150214T2100Z//O.CON.KCLE.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150216T0000Z/LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN1245 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THISAFTERNOON......WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECTUNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.* SNOW...WILL BE HEAVIEST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH 2 PM. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR A STORM TOTAL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. SNOW SQUALLS WILL CAUSE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.* WIND CHILL...WILL DROP BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH 25 TO 30 BELOW OVERNIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO.* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.* IMPACTS...WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS VALUES OF 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT WILL FREEZE EXPOSED FLESH AND CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. AVOID OUTDOOR EXPOSUREPRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINEWITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOREXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREESBELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTUREOUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OFWINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BESIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHERIS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHERDETAILS OR UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, the winds started whipping pretty good with the wind shift. If you didn't measure an hour or two ago, then your measurements will be completely off. I'm really curious what kind of joke snowfall totals KCLE reports today. I just don't understand why those advisories weren't just issued yesterday. Significant snowfall and extreme wind chills are two separate and distinct weather phenomena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Extremely hard to measure. Best guess is an additional 3.5" since last measurement. Total so far 6.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yep, tough measuring for sure, winds way up. 3.4" since last, storm total of 6.9" as of 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 CAK has been at 1/4 mile visibility with wind gusts above 35MPH for two consecutive hourly obs. CLE is a bit too far NW for the better lake effect, but CAK continues to be in and out of bands, so we'll see if the winds drop enough or visibilities come up enough to avoid an official blizzard at CAK KCAK 141951Z 34023G34KT 1/4SM R23/1000V2400FT -SN BLSN BKN010 OVC027 M11/M14 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 35034/1911 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP051 P0000 T11061139 $KCAK 141851Z 35020G33KT 1/4SM R23/1200V2400FT -SN BLSN VV013 M08/M12 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 36033/1849 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP025 P0001 T10831122 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Since the winds kicked up its hard to measure.... I'll estimate 6-7" so far. Snow has stopped. The Lake Huron connection hasn't come together so we'll see what happens tonight. Not expecting much more but once winds line up from the NNw I'd imagine a decent band will take shape. Not sure how far west it will push. Great storm so far... Brutal outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snow showers are increasing over Lake Erie again, appears to be some low level moisture from northern Lake Michigan coming all the way down. Looking at mesoanalysis and water vapor, there does appear to be a trough at the surface and also evident at 850mb and 700mb moving across the lake, with increased mid-level moisture, so we could see another uptick here for a few hours of snow showers. There has been a heavy band well west of town too downwind of the bigger crack in the ice. The Lake Huron band is curving well east, but behind the trough as winds go more NNW it should shift west. It'll be close for Lake/Geauga Counties. With such poor snow growth, I'd generally expect additional amounts of an inch or so in the higher terrain and less elsewhere...the best chance for maybe 2-3" at most will be if a Huron connection develops, but that may be east of all of you in NE Ohio. Winds are still whipping and visibilities are still occasionally dropping to 1/4 of a mile at obs sites. This was a very high impact storm considering it was a Saturday. There have been a multitude of accidents all over the place. The ball was dropped by local media and yes, the NWS. I feel like I can say that based on the impact and based on the fact that I harped on this being high impact for days with more than enough explanation for why I felt that way. No advisories were issued until the event was WELL underway (and honestly, based on a couple of warning criteria reports and the impact, this needed a warning as far west as Lorain and Medina), and although many mets on TV last night did mention a potential snow squall and some blowing snow, they were too focused on the cold. Cold, while dangerous, doesn't cause cars to run into each other and shut down freeways, but that's just my thinking. I'm curious to see what kind of temperatures we can see over the coming days. The 12z Euro shows two more potential shots of 850mb temps getting below -25C again...one later this week...so we may not be done with potential record cold. Unbelievable pattern that has set up for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 This was a very high impact storm considering it was a Saturday. There have been a multitude of accidents all over the place. The ball was dropped by local media and yes, the NWS. I feel like I can say that based on the impact and based on the fact that I harped on this being high impact for days with more than enough explanation for why I felt that way. No advisories were issued until the event was WELL underway (and honestly, based on a couple of warning criteria reports and the impact, this needed a warning as far west as Lorain and Medina), and although many mets on TV last night did mention a potential snow squall and some blowing snow, they were too focused on the cold. Cold, while dangerous, doesn't cause cars to run into each other and shut down freeways, but that's just my thinking. Yeah, this was well advertised by you and the NAM and GFS had been consistently showing more than 6" for the eastern suburbs for days. There was no excuse to play down this event. Even I was optimistic about this event! The climate report from KCLE shows a laughable 2.5" of snow today. It's almost cringe worthy. I was thinking a lowball total of about 4", but 2.5" is a joke. Since 0.9" was recorded at 7 am, that means only 1.6" fell during the day today. It's sad that's what gets "officially" recorded. I know I jokingly said earlier that we officially need 20" more snow this season to reach normal which means we actually have to get closer to 30" but that's the reality. Even DTW had 3.3" from this. So you're trying to tell me that DTW had more than CLE from this event? And here's the radar loop of this event, yet 2.5" of snow from this with temps in the low 20s? Impossible. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=CLE-N0Q-1-200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 A few wind gusts in northwest Ohio have reached 48-49mph. It must be very annoying and dangerous, for the people out there who might be more likely to get frostbite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 One of the those lake effect bands just hit me. Super fine snow that doesn't really accumulate, but it's dropping the visibility below a quarter mile. It just looks like a fog of snow out there. With temps now in the single digits this stuff isn't going to melt from the roads. This might actually end up being one of the most high impact snowfalls of the season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah, this was well advertised by you and the NAM and GFS had been consistently showing more than 6" for the eastern suburbs for days. There was no excuse to play down this event. Even I was optimistic about this event! The climate report from KCLE shows a laughable 2.5" of snow today. It's almost cringe worthy. I was thinking a lowball total of about 4", but 2.5" is a joke. Since 0.9" was recorded at 7 am, that means only 1.6" fell during the day today. It's sad that's what gets "officially" recorded. I know I jokingly said earlier that we officially need 20" more snow this season to reach normal which means we actually have to get closer to 30" but that's the reality. Even DTW had 3.3" from this. So you're trying to tell me that DTW had more than CLE from this event? And here's the radar loop of this event, yet 2.5" of snow from this with temps in the low 20s? Impossible. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=CLE-N0Q-1-200 yes you were I know why they downplayed. It's because the models only showed a quarter inch of QPF, and for some reason a lot of people still have the mindset that snow accumulations and impact can simply be figured by multiplying model QPF by 10. Even though a quick look at a surface plot would have suggested very gusty winds and cold temps leading to higher ratios, higher accums and a lot of blowing. How much did you end up with? The airport measures snow at synoptic times (0, 6, 12, 18z) so the snow in the climo is likely only through 18z/1PM. Even through then, there's a 100% chance it's too low. The snow was really whipping by that point so I'm sure it was very difficult to measure, and at an open airport I'm sure a lot of it did just blow away. It's unfortunate, because what potentially may be the worst storm of the winter could go down as like 3" "officially" at CLE. Shaker Heights recently came in with a 12 hour total of 8" for perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 yes you were I know why they downplayed. It's because the models only showed a quarter inch of QPF, and for some reason a lot of people still have the mindset that snow accumulations and impact can simply be figured by multiplying model QPF by 10. Even though a quick look at a surface plot would have suggested very gusty winds and cold temps leading to higher ratios, higher accums and a lot of blowing. How much did you end up with? The airport measures snow at synoptic times (0, 6, 12, 18z) so the snow in the climo is likely only through 18z/1PM. Even through then, there's a 100% chance it's too low. The snow was really whipping by that point so I'm sure it was very difficult to measure, and at an open airport I'm sure a lot of it did just blow away. It's unfortunate, because what potentially may be the worst storm of the winter could go down as like 3" "officially" at CLE. Shaker Heights recently came in with a 12 hour total of 8" for perspective. I have 6.1" today. And for the benefit of the doubt it was hard to measure later in the afternoon. Granted, the snowfall last night was pretty easy to measure as it was super high ratio fluff. Up until noon the additional snow to measure was pretty easy as well. After that the 40mph gusts came in, which made things very tricky. If you didn't measure at all today and went outside right now to try and figure out an accumulation, then you're going to have a very "off" total. The airport, which is completely open, probably was going to have difficulty measuring regardless. The little bands that keep sliding in off Lake Erie are depositing very fine accumulations. It's definitely treacherous out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 CLE's total is absurd. You would have to think they will revise their total. Right around 7"' here. That band on the southwest side has been parked for a long time. Probably approaching double digits there. ice cover is hurting the east side right now.... Not sure the Huron band will connect to Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 The F6 for KCLE shows 5.2" of snow yesterday. I can live with that total as being reasonable. It didn't get as cold as anticipated overnight. A lot of guidance had temperatures below zero around 8pm last night, but it took until the early hours this morning to finally dip below zero (at least for coastal areas). Very unusual to see BKL actually colder than CLE in winter on NW winds for an overnight low. CLE will have a second chance to break today's record low just before midnight, probably achievable. I'm eager to see what MODIS imagery looks like today and tomorrow. There can't be that many gaps left in the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Made it down to -18 last night imby. Brutal stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HZY got to -23 and even CLE got to -12. You got yours Saturday, today it's my turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I saw a couple personal weather stations in interior NE Ohio dip below -30. Quite a few spots in the -20s. The -12 at CLE was the 5th coldest February temperature on record and only one day has been colder than that later in the season. I'm curious how much open water and cracks will appear on Lake Erie with some shifting winds. The Modis image yesterday showed most gaps filled in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I saw a couple personal weather stations in interior NE Ohio dip below -30. Quite a few spots in the -20s. The -12 at CLE was the 5th coldest February temperature on record and only one day has been colder than that later in the season. I'm curious how much open water and cracks will appear on Lake Erie with some shifting winds. The Modis image yesterday showed most gaps filled in. Ya the Newbury station on wunderground read -24 at 7am. Seems a little cool compared to the others nearby. Ohweather...good luck with the snow today! Looks like a monster on radar. Might be a few chances for light snow here this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HZY got to -23 and even CLE got to -12. You got yours Saturday, today it's my turn Enjoy the snow. Good times driving in the hills of Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Don't see any discussion of it, but Erie, PA tied its all-time record low of -18F this morning. The record was previously established on January 19, 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks guys...snow hasn't been accumulating too quickly yet, but it's been 5-10 degrees here for the duration of the storm (which no one here can remember a storm so cold in SE Ohio) and the roads are a mess. That is incredible that ERI tied an all time record! May have a similar chance Thursday night depending on where the heart of the surface high tracks..airmass looks similar if you can stay clear/calm. We'll have a snow pack here and could also really tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Another day, another record low. That's 3 in a row for CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 -13 IMBY last night. That two nights in a row in the double digits below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It's possible you guys break two more records later this week, and it's also possible rural areas get colder than -20 again Friday morning. Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It's possible you guys break two more records later this week, and it's also possible rural areas get colder than -20 again Friday morning. Incredible I'd trade record low temps for snowfall amounts any day. This cold is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'd trade record low temps for snowfall amounts any day. This cold is ridiculous.I'll have to look later, but I wonder if this has a chance at being the coldest February ever in Cleveland. More very impressive cold coming and no above average temps in site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'd trade record low temps for snowfall amounts any day. This cold is ridiculous. Totally agree! Not sure that we had a stretch last winter of below 0 temps as what we will have this week...could be wrong though. Looks like a few chances for light snow the rest of the week, and then another hopefully more substantial system over the weekend. Neoh, when you get a chance, what's your snowfall so far? Seems like I just crossed 90" recently. Took a few depth measurements yesterday of about 14". Turned out to be a good winter after the horrid December. Imagine if December had at least been normal .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Totally agree! Not sure that we had a stretch last winter of below 0 temps as what we will have this week...could be wrong though. Looks like a few chances for light snow the rest of the week, and then another hopefully more substantial system over the weekend. Neoh, when you get a chance, what's your snowfall so far? Seems like I just crossed 90" recently. Took a few depth measurements yesterday of about 14". Turned out to be a good winter after the horrid December. Imagine if December had at least been normal .. Seasonal snowfall is at 90.1". Looks like we are almost identical. Haven't been out to measure depth but I'd assume we are close. Yep, some light snows this week with bigger potential over the weekend. I'm almost ready to waive the white flag and say let's get a big one, then move on to a warm/dry March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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