Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[Floydbuster]

Down by Akron our estimates are usually a little overestimated so I will expect more in the range of 2 to 3 inches down here.

[OHweather]

16 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Ya seemed like the bands wanted to hug the lake shore.  Hoping for a better next few days. 

What are your thoughts on the Mon storm?  Any chance we can get it this far north, as it seems some models were starting to edge it north last night.   Should still trigger some lake effect as it passes I would think.... pending the lake ice coverage..

We still are on the outside looking in for heavier snow, but there's at least half decent potential for lighter snow up here. Would like to see any model other than the GFS show a more northerly solution to get excited. There could be interesting LES potential around Wednesday next week. Ice won't be prohibitive by that point, but will be starting to expand, especially across the western basin. 

[Floydbuster]

34 minutes ago, OHweather said:

We still are on the outside looking in for heavier snow, but there's at least half decent potential for lighter snow up here. Would like to see any model other than the GFS show a more northerly solution to get excited. There could be interesting LES potential around Wednesday next week. Ice won't be prohibitive by that point, but will be starting to expand, especially across the western basin. 

The local Cleveland networks show different predicted totals. Chardon could get up to 8 inches while Akron could get up to 2 inches over the entire weekend. That makes for a huge difference in impact for regular non weather folks depending on where they are located who always expect a massive snow event. I have a feeling this one could be very localized and dependent on where the individual bands set up.

[LakeEffectOH]

Well, is our LES storm going to deliver or will it be another Ashtabula/Erie special?  Bands appear to be parallel to the lakeshore.

[NEOH]

57 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Well, is our LES storm going to deliver or will it be another Ashtabula/Erie special?  Bands appear to be parallel to the lakeshore.

 

That will be moving inland once the shortwave passes and winds shift to the WNW. Winds are still SW'erly at this point. Check out the shortwave over central MI - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-MI-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

That should provide additional lift and increased snowfall. 

[OHweather]

5 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

The local Cleveland networks show different predicted totals. Chardon could get up to 8 inches while Akron could get up to 2 inches over the entire weekend. That makes for a huge difference in impact for regular non weather folks depending on where they are located who always expect a massive snow event. I have a feeling this one could be very localized and dependent on where the individual bands set up.

Yes communicating that local variability to the public is always a challenge because people do tend to gravitate towards the highest number they see. Totals will definitely vary based on where bands setup, but I think most of the area will get a good amount of snow. There’s a decent amount of synoptic support through this evening and then a decently prolonged period of lake effect tonight and tomorrow. 

1 hour ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Well, is our LES storm going to deliver or will it be another Ashtabula/Erie special?  Bands appear to be parallel to the lakeshore.

We should be good, can see the band starting to push south over western Lake Erie as the wind shifts. The vort max NEOH pointed out will help force bands onshore and also will add a good amount of synoptic support. 

[NEOH]

Whiteout conditions right now with the heavy squalls. Nice way to start the event. 

[vpbob21]

Picked up about 1.5" with the overnight and this morning's snow.  The line of snow showers that came through around 10 AM was very impressive, even better than the line that gave us the snow squall warning a few weeks ago.  Visibility at peak was probably 1/8 mile and we got 1" in maybe 15 minutes.

 

Looks like the Sunday night/Monday system has gone south on us (literally).  Never really had great expectations for this but was hoping we could score a 1-3"/2-4" type event out of it.  Even that looks overly optimistic at this point.  Hopefully we get more chances later in the month.

 

[OHweather]

That squall was intense when it came through Macedonia. Brief near zero visibility. 

[LakeEffectOH]

4 hours ago, NEOH said:

That will be moving inland once the shortwave passes and winds shift to the WNW. Winds are still SW'erly at this point. Check out the shortwave over central MI - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-MI-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

That should provide additional lift and increased snowfall. 

Heavy snow here! I guess my inner  reminded me of how I missed epic LES snowfall by 10 so miles, not to mention several big ticket LES vents over the last few years.  

[LakeEffectOH]

3 hours ago, OHweather said:

Yes communicating that local variability to the public is always a challenge because people do tend to gravitate towards the highest number they see. Totals will definitely vary based on where bands setup, but I think most of the area will get a good amount of snow. There’s a decent amount of synoptic support through this evening and then a decently prolonged period of lake effect tonight and tomorrow. 

We should be good, can see the band starting to push south over western Lake Erie as the wind shifts. The vort max NEOH pointed out will help force bands onshore and also will add a good amount of synoptic support. 

Yes! Thanks! Snowing like crazy out now.  Just had a bout of pessimism, especially after being missed by the severe LES of early December 

[OHweather]

31 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Yes! Thanks! Snowing like crazy out now.  Just had a bout of pessimism, especially after being missed by the severe LES of early December 

Folks in this approximate circle have been promised a fair bit of snow that they haven’t seen with a couple of the LES events this season, so I get it lol. Luckily this is not the same type of setup as those ones. 
 

[NEOH]

Picked up 4.4" of snow already. It was just dumping earlier. Snow starting to pick back up... and the heavy snow over the lake looks to push south directly into the area circled by OHWeather. 

[LakeEffectOH]

23 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Picked up 4.4" of snow already. It was just dumping earlier. Snow starting to pick back up... and the heavy snow over the lake looks to push south directly into the area circled by OHWeather. 

4-5” is about what we’ve picked up here in Chesterland so far today.  Wind is picking up too! 

[NEOH]

2 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

4-5” is about what we’ve picked up here in Chesterland so far today.  Wind is picking up too! 

Nice. Its always good to get off to a fast start. We'll see what the rest of the day/nights brings. 

[LakeEffectOH]

37 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Nice. Its always good to get off to a fast start. We'll see what the rest of the day/nights brings. 

And tonight-tomorrow as well 

[LakeEffectOH]

 

[dta1984]

6.75" here so far, a really good start and on forecast.  We had some very intense rates later in the morning, and then steady-heavy snow most of the afternoon.   Radar looks thin now, hopefully it fires back up later.  

[Floydbuster]

I am surprised at the intensity of some of these snow bands.

[OHweather]

The snow squalls were very impressive today. It got noticeably dark as they moved in, visibility dropped to no better than 500 feet at times, and some graupel even mixed in at times. I had 0.4" last night into early this morning, then another 5.4" during the day today. Lake effect bands trying to align now. 

[OHweather]

Was in and out of a better band all night. 5.1” new, 10.9” storm total. Band has settled south of me but should tack on at least a bit more today. 

[dta1984]

3" new here overnight, 9.75" running total. 

[NEOH]

1 minute ago, dta1984 said:

3" new here overnight, 9.75" running total. 

Same amount overnight as well - 10.5 total. Its a perfect wind direction to maximize the fetch from the western basin. Surprised there hasn't been a primary band on the eastside. 

[dta1984]

5 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Same amount overnight as well - 10.5 total. Its a perfect wind direction to maximize the fetch from the western basin. Surprised there hasn't been a primary band on the eastside. 

Some short rangers still show 3-6", have to see if we can get a band to organize.  

[OHweather]

50 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Same amount overnight as well - 10.5 total. Its a perfect wind direction to maximize the fetch from the western basin. Surprised there hasn't been a primary band on the eastside. 

The flow being closer to 300 degrees over the lake might be just a bit too far northwesterly for your area to jackpot, but I think the bigger issue was a more dominant to Lake Michigan running along the western shoreline towards like Medina County for a good period of time late yesterday into this morning, forcing the more organized band down there. As the flow backs and as that Lake Michigan connection decreases your area should have a better chance to get under whatever banding is out there. Activity won't be as intense as it was yesterday into last night, but a few fluffy inches are still on the table wherever any bands can setup through this evening. 

[Chinook]

here's some radar from a little earlier (10:12)

[LakeEffectOH]

Hopefully we can see more LES this coming week.  As more ice forms on the lake, the chances of particularly heavy snows will decrease.

While it’s certainly been cold, it hasn’t been that cold, plus we had a mini torch between Christmas and New Year’s.  Hopefully these two factors will buy us a little more time.

I have had about 11” since it started snowing on New Year’s night.

[dta1984]

31 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Hopefully we can see more LES this coming week.  As more ice forms on the lake, the chances of particularly heavy snows will decrease.

While it’s certainly been cold, it hasn’t been that cold, plus we had a mini torch between Christmas and New Year’s.  Hopefully these two factors will buy us a little more time.

I have had about 11” since it started snowing on New Year’s night.

Was just reading through the CLE discussion and looks like several LES chances this coming week.  https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CLE&issuedby=CLE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Floydbuster]

Good grief, that was way more intense LES than I expected, especially towards the secondary snowbelts. I was traveling through Macedonia towards Akron Friday night and it was horrible. Then the future radar continued to show the snow ending and then it just continued going and going and going. 

[NEOH]

Storm total of 12.8” here. Was lucky to get under some of the better banding late yesterday afternoon. It was pure fluff. Still some snow falling this morning.