OHweather Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 1 hour ago, WHEATCENT said: When looking especially at the short term models, on a site like pivotal (there's so many models) which would you say are better at handling lake effect? Always been curious on that It's nuanced and hard to say one model is definitively better...some certainly have their strengths and weaknesses. Out of the higher-res models available out there, here are some of my thoughts on them: The 3km/hi-res NAM is one of the better performing models for overall evolution of an event and amounts, though sometimes does not focus a single band enough (so has snow over too broad of an area with peak amounts that aren't high enough). The 3km NAM does have a bias to place bands a bit too far south in a westerly type flow The HRRR is better with nailing peak amounts in organized bands, though sometimes struggles to show enough snow when the fetch is shorter (struggles to depict weaker bands and upslope for whatever reason). The HRRR is better with single banded events like this. Like the NAM the HRRR has a habit of placing bands too far south with a longer fetch/westerly flow, and that bias seems to be worse in the longer term of the HRRR (more than 6-12 hours out) The ARW isn't too shabby either for lake effect, I've noticed it has a mix of strengths and weaknesses that the NAM/HRRR have. The ARW may be the worst in terms of placing bands a little too far south in this type of flow The RGEM/regional Canadian is better at keeping bands closer to the lakeshore with these types of events (long fetch with strong shoreline convergence), though sometimes places bands a little TOO far north. The RGEM looses skill once winds go more northwesterly. Overall, I've found that in events like this the band ends up somewhere between where the NAM/HRRR/ARW have it and where the RGEM has it, perhaps slightly closer to the RGEM a lot of the time. The global models (i.e. GFS, ECMWF, CMC) are best used to get an idea of the synoptic environment more so than actual snow amounts and placement. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 NWS official snowfall forecast (48hr) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 3 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said: What do you think the snow potential is for Northern Geauga county is for Sunday night and Monday? Check out the hrrr. Targets the 322 corridor. It’s on its own compared to other models and shows less troughing over the lake. Hopefully a trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Band is already ripping. Unfortunately, the American models have inched north. The focus for the crazy amounts will probably be northern Ashtabula into Erie and NW Crawford PA. Lake and northern Geauga will see accumulating snow at times (especially eastern Lake and northeastern Geauga), though after the rest of tonight those areas will probably largely be outside of the dominant mega band. I fully believe 3-4 foot totals are within reach in Ashtabula, Erie, and parts of Chautauqua Counties through Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 you don't always see a reasonable value of CAPE when the LES is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Wheatcent must be buried by now. Crazy how much snow parts of Lake and Ashtabula counties have had. Bummed to miss out on the good stuff this far south but we'll have shot tomorrow as winds come around to the WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 The snow band looks great over the lake. Seems to be moving south a bit. There are going to some huge totals in lake county today. Not sure it will make it this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, NEOH said: The snow band looks great over the lake. Seems to be moving south a bit. There are going to some huge totals in lake county today. Not sure it will make it this far south. I think your area has a decent shot tonight through early Tuesday to get some snow, but the big winners will be around Lake County today. Already 13.9” of new snow in North Madison as of 9:15 AM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Congrats to you folks with the LES. It’s been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Don’t have a good feeling about places south of Rt 6…growing bust potential. I think the heaviest snow will stay to the north in Lake County with 1-3 inch totals south of Rt 6. Hopefully I’m wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 9 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said: Don’t have a good feeling about places south of Rt 6…growing bust potential. I think the heaviest snow will stay to the north in Lake County with 1-3 inch totals south of Rt 6. Hopefully I’m wrong. Unfortunately you may be correct here. Will be curious to see the morning snowfall reports. Snow finally pushed south overnight but activity weakened significantly just as quickly as it did that. Some signs now that it's trying to re-flare a bit, but it may also be trying to shift back north. I FINALLY have a forecast shift for this storm today and will have some annoying decisions to make with the Cuyahoga warning. Honestly all the OH warnings may be an annoying predicament by the end of the day shift (will need to try to figure out if it's worth keeping the warnings going for "impact" with some additional snow continuing through at least early tomorrow, or if it's better to downgrade to signal the worst is over if no one is getting more than another 4" tonight into tomorrow). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 2 hours ago, OHweather said: Unfortunately you may be correct here. Will be curious to see the morning snowfall reports. Snow finally pushed south overnight but activity weakened significantly just as quickly as it did that. Some signs now that it's trying to re-flare a bit, but it may also be trying to shift back north. I FINALLY have a forecast shift for this storm today and will have some annoying decisions to make with the Cuyahoga warning. Honestly all the OH warnings may be an annoying predicament by the end of the day shift (will need to try to figure out if it's worth keeping the warnings going for "impact" with some additional snow continuing through at least early tomorrow, or if it's better to downgrade to signal the worst is over if no one is getting more than another 4" tonight into tomorrow). Thought I would wake up to more snow this morning. Only an inch or so. Interesting that the snow weakened so much as the fetch was still long over the lake. We'll see what happens today but expectations are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 So far, so good from Lake Erie. I wonder how this event compares to significant lake effect snows in November 1996 & December 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: So far, so good from Lake Erie. I wonder how this event compares to significant lake effect snows in November 1996 & December 2017. I remember Nov '96 very well. That event was earlier in the season and Chardon had 70+" of snow. There was a ton of thunder snow, and the snow was wet/heavy so there was a lot of tree damage. Also, the snow hit a much broader area than this event. This event was one of the more impressive but Nov '96 was unique. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Nice to finally see a snow map based on a WNW wind direction. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 20 hours ago, NEOH said: Nice to finally see a snow map based on a WNW wind direction. Everything looks good for tonight -Fri. Tomorrow should be really nasty out with the winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Interesting system incoming. It will be nice to get snow a lot farther inland with this event! Outside of a Lake Huron connection into NW PA I am skeptical of huggggge totals, but with the wind, falling temps, and occasional squalls it will be quite wintry for a larger area. I do not see how we avoid an all-out blizzard in Erie County PA tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 15 minutes ago, OHweather said: Interesting system incoming. It will be nice to get snow a lot farther inland with this event! Outside of a Lake Huron connection into NW PA I am skeptical of huggggge totals, but with the wind, falling temps, and occasional squalls it will be quite wintry for a larger area. I do not see how we avoid an all-out blizzard in Erie County PA tomorrow. I am closer to Akron, but the local NWS seems to have backed off a bit on winds thankfully. Nevertheless, areas northeast towards Geauga, and Lake counties could still see some accumulations. I am a little surprised at the hype about this one, and I wonder how much of it has to do with the insane accumulations seen in Ashtabula last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 49 minutes ago, OHweather said: Interesting system incoming. It will be nice to get snow a lot farther inland with this event! Outside of a Lake Huron connection into NW PA I am skeptical of huggggge totals, but with the wind, falling temps, and occasional squalls it will be quite wintry for a larger area. I do not see how we avoid an all-out blizzard in Erie County PA tomorrow. The one thing I'm concerned about are the strong winds limiting residence time and preventing band organization. Not sure how NW'erly the winds are forecast to come around but anywhere from 285 - 300 would be ideal for maximizing fetch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Snow squall warning for my county!! First time that I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 10 hours ago, Floydbuster said: I am closer to Akron, but the local NWS seems to have backed off a bit on winds thankfully. Nevertheless, areas northeast towards Geauga, and Lake counties could still see some accumulations. I am a little surprised at the hype about this one, and I wonder how much of it has to do with the insane accumulations seen in Ashtabula last week. This is the first notable snow of the season for a lot of the area and it will blow around a good bit...but I agree the hype is likely a bit overblown due to the big dump over the weekend to the northeast. With that said, I think you'll still get several inches of snow by the time it winds down early Friday AM and it'll blow around a good bit. Up the lakeshore where there's a deeper snowpack and where they'll get much more wind this will be a big deal...the upgrade to a Blizzard Warning for Erie PA was not done likely, and I was close on (and slightly regret not pulling the trigger) Ashtabula and Crawford PA. 10 hours ago, NEOH said: The one thing I'm concerned about are the strong winds limiting residence time and preventing band organization. Not sure how NW'erly the winds are forecast to come around but anywhere from 285 - 300 would be ideal for maximizing fetch. Yeah, I could see how snow totals somewhat disappoint (we'll all get snow and it'll blow around, don't get me wrong) given the strong winds, though they do back off a bit Thursday afternoon and evening. The wind direction will be in the 290ish range a lot of Thursday and Thursday night, maybe briefly 300 or so. There are hints by several models of broad convergence in the Cleveland area points east-southeast, which could help focus snow through most of Thursday. That would be good for your area (and probably mine too), so fingers crossed. 3 hours ago, vpbob21 said: Snow squall warning for my county!! First time that I can remember. Truth be told it was somewhat marginal to issue, but once it hit Findlay and they gusted to 56 MPH with 1/4 mile visibility (and cameras on I-75 looked fairly decent), we went with it. Had quite a few reports of thundersnow, though I personally didn't see any. The Snow Squall Warning was the first ever for your area, and was only the second one ever issued by our office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Legit blizzard conditions out there this morning. Hard to measure with the winds but 5 - 6" has fallen already... most of which fell between 4am and 8am. Roads are absolutely terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 9 AM Thursday, at the most a 1/4 inch of snow near Lakewood Park. And wind gusts in the forties from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Had a little over 3” this morning. After a few hours of not much happening snow is starting to pick up a bit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 15 minutes ago, OHweather said: Had a little over 3” this morning. After a few hours of not much happening snow is starting to pick up a bit again. Snowing quite hard again after the morning lull. Roads are back to being covered. Radar is looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 hour ago, NEOH said: Snowing quite hard again after the morning lull. Roads are back to being covered. Radar is looking great. Your area looks to be doing quite well! It’ll be a mixed bag for this event, those near the lake haven’t gotten much snow but the inland Snowbelt is. I’m at work so won’t have an evening measurement, but I’m guessing my additional snow today and tonight will add at least a few inches for me. Not too bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Hard to measure with the winds, but I'm coming up with 9" in several spots. Looks like several 5-6" measurements reported nearby early this morning, so this seems reasonable. Radar still looks great for several more inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 11.5" total IMBY. Great event and fairly high impact with the strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Ended up with 6.5-7” here. Hopefully we have several more events like this on the way this season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 new web page about the huge snow event https://www.weather.gov/cle/event_20241128_1203 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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