Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[dta1984]

I measured 2.75" additional since last measurement 12 hrs ago.  Storm total here is 9.25". The lake effect definitely made up for Thursday's miss!

[NEOH]

3 hours ago, dta1984 said:

I measured 2.75" additional since last measurement 12 hrs ago.  Storm total here is 9.25". The lake effect definitely made up for Thursday's miss!

The lake effect definitely made up for the lack of system snow. Didn't really keep up with measuring but probably around 10" or so. Nice to have snow on frozen ground. Kids are having a blast playing in the powder. 

[NEOH]

Currently in the upper 30's near the lake and 52 IMBY. With the melted snow and fog really feels like an early spring day. 

[NEOH]

Rain flipped to snow around 12:30. It has been dumping huge flakes since the changeover. Grass and roads start to get covered. 

[vpbob21]

Managed to flip to snow long enough for a couple tenths here.  Pushes us past 5" on the season!

[Spartman]

Currently the 3rd cloudiest January ever in Cleveland
https://fox8.com/weather/is-it-the-cloudiest-january-ever-no-but-its-close/

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

Currently the 3rd cloudiest January ever in Cleveland
https://fox8.com/weather/is-it-the-cloudiest-january-ever-no-but-its-close/

Tell me about it. It has sure felt that way. Can remember the last sunny day. 

[NEOH]

CLE's snowfall is currently at 16.5" for the season (an inch below last year), with a departure of -18.7". Barring a miracle, this will be another below average snowfall season. The last time CLE hit average snowfall was the Winter of 2014-2015 with 67". That is a rough stretch. I've been close to normal a few of the seasons in between thanks to lake effect. But those outside of the snowbelt have been in an exceptionally long snow drought. 

[NEOH]

2/13 storm offering a glimmer of hope for synoptic snowfall across Ohio. Big jump NW on the GFS and CMS 12z model runs. Still a long way out but at least something to track. 

[dta1984]

1 hour ago, NEOH said:

2/13 storm offering a glimmer of hope for synoptic snowfall across Ohio. Big jump NW on the GFS and CMS 12z model runs. Still a long way out but at least something to track. 

True, at least it's something.  What a clunker it's been... again.  I'll enjoy the 50s for the next few days, it's been nice getting a taste of spring.  

[NEOH]

41 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

True, at least it's something.  What a clunker it's been... again.  I'll enjoy the 50s for the next few days, it's been nice getting a taste of spring.  

Birds are chirping and wildlife has been very active... really feels like early Spring.  I'm almost out of Winter mode but it would be nice to get one large storm before closing the books on the season. 

[OHweather]

If you want a local hot take, CLE will more than double their current seasonal total over the remainder of winter. That isn't saying a TON, but I don't think we've seen half our snow yet for the season. The next several weeks will be more wintry. While I'm not convinced it'll be the snowiest pattern ever, it will snow occasionally with generally chilly conditions. 

[OHweather]

On 1/19/2024 at 5:57 PM, LakeEffectOH said:

OHweather,

A little break from the current snow event...

What are your thoughts about the recent crash in snowfall totals measured at CLE?

Link:  https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

Here are some of my thoughts on possible contributing factors:

Recent tendency of the MJO to linger in the "Bad phases" (4-7);  The  changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool could be a factor in this.

Expansion and warming of the Indo-Pacific Ocean:

A strongly negative PDO over the past several years:

Link:  https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/01/pacific-decadal-oscillation

A greater tendency of the winter NAO to be positive, especially in the past 10 years, (circled in green): 

 

Link:  https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/nao/img/idl_nao_base1951-1980_ONDJFM_300dpi.png

Of course, there are many other factors, large and small, that are affecting our snow totals.  I only hope this isn't permanent because of climate change.

I would be interested in hearing your and anyone else's thoughts.

 

I am way overdue on properly responding to this... 

Our bread and butter for snow is a polar jet dominated pattern with a lot of clippers and lake effect. An occasional panhandle hook/Colorado low and rare low from the Gulf can give us one or two larger storms a winter, but we get snowy seasonal totals when we get stretches where it just snows a lot and adds up. We have not had that for more than brief stretches in recent winters, despite a few impressive synoptic snows. 

I think some of the things driving our recent lack of snowy winters are cyclic, while others are related to longer term trends. I think the NAO is somewhat cyclic, with stretches where it's predominantly positive historically. We may be coming out of the ongoing stretch of +NAO...but it has contributed to the recent lack of snow. I also think the PDO is somewhat cyclic. A strong -PDO favors a SE ridge, while a +PDO favors a +PNA. A -PDO is a wetter pattern, but the +PNA isn't always optimal for us (sometimes the trough ends up a bit too far east). A -PDO, though, can just be mild/rainy. The warming Indian-Pacific warm pool is a longer term trend, and it probably does favor more active convection in an area that tends to favor mild weather for us. In some winters, that can result in periods of -EPO blocking which can result in nice Arctic blasts, but it also runs a -PNA and southeast ridge risk. I do think that could lead to an overall decrease in snow averages locally, but I also think there are other factors that are more cyclic and should break more favorably at some point soon. 

[NEOH]

10 hours ago, OHweather said:

If you want a local hot take, CLE will more than double their current seasonal total over the remainder of winter. That isn't saying a TON, but I don't think we've seen half our snow yet for the season. The next several weeks will be more wintry. While I'm not convinced it'll be the snowiest pattern ever, it will snow occasionally with generally chilly conditions. 

I like your optimism... hopefully it falls over the next couple of weeks then we can move on to a mild Spring. 

[NEOH]

A few snow flurries around this afternoon. The last time it snowed was 1/28. Oof. 

[beavis1729]

It may not be much consolation...but everyone in the Lakes/Midwest is having a horrendous winter. 

Some places in MN have had less than 6" for the season, and there's currently no snow cover in the entire states of WI and MN...when this is normally the period of the season with the deepest snow cover.  There are no words to convey how ridiculous this is.  Every day, I feel like yelling and throwing things against the wall - it's just unacceptable. 
 

I had a couple of snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI this season, but both got cancelled (not even due to poor trail conditions, which would be bad enough...but it's completely bare ground). Places in northern WI which average nearly 100" per season have only had 10-15" of snowfall so far, and most of that was in November. They're on track to obliterate the warmest winter on record.

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

It may not be much consolation...but everyone in the Lakes/Midwest is having a horrendous winter. 

Some places in MN have had less than 6" for the season, and there's currently no snow cover in the entire states of WI and MN...when this is normally the period of the season with the deepest snow cover.  There are no words to convey how ridiculous this is.  Every day, I feel like yelling and throwing things against the wall - it's just unacceptable. 
 

I had a couple of snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI this season, but both got cancelled (not even due to poor trail conditions, which would be bad enough...but it's completely bare ground). Places in northern WI which average nearly 100" per season have only had 10-15" of snowfall so far, and most of that was in November. They're on track to obliterate the warmest winter on record.

Yep. Definitely a poor Winter all around which was somewhat expected given the strong El Nino. That said, I don't think many expected the Winter to be this bad in terms of snowfall (at least locally). We've strung together a few bad Winters in Northern Ohio whereas other areas in the Midwest have not. 

 

[dta1984]

On 2/8/2024 at 8:10 AM, NEOH said:

I like your optimism... hopefully it falls over the next couple of weeks then we can move on to a mild Spring. 

Couldn't agree more.  After whatever snow chance we have Fri-the weekend, I'm ready for spring unless it's a blockbuster storm in March.  Done with these 1-2" marginal events.  

[OHweather]

While my optimism for the extended range has completely faded, it's worth noting that Saturday has the potential to be interesting for lake effect snow from in and around the Cleveland metro points northeast. 

[dta1984]

9 hours ago, OHweather said:

While my optimism for the extended range has completely faded, it's worth noting that Saturday has the potential to be interesting for lake effect snow from in and around the Cleveland metro points northeast. 

Looks like a 290 flow which generally does pretty well out here.  

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Looks like a 290 flow which generally does pretty well out here.  

290 flow would be ideal. Seems like a fairly short window as winds turn more WSW'erly late afternoon tomorrow. 

[OHweather]

Had about 0.8” from the synoptic snow and another 2.2” from LES overnight through 7:15 when I measured. A burst just dropped 1.5” in about half an hour at the office. 

[dta1984]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Had about 0.8” from the synoptic snow and another 2.2” from LES overnight through 7:15 when I measured. A burst just dropped 1.5” in about half an hour at the office. 

Definitely a nice surprise.  Just under 6" here so far.   

[OHweather]

Another 0.8” of fluffy snow during the day in Macedonia. My total is 0.8” of system snow and 3.0” of lake effect. A minor miracle this winter. 

[NEOH]

Great day yesterday. This area was under some of the heavier squalls. 6” total imby. 

[NEOH]

Brutal change in the weather. Picked up close to 2" from the lake effect band this morning. Look forward to the return of warm temps this weekend. 

[dta1984]

WSW for Sunday, maybe 6"+?   Quite the rollercoaster, going from flooding rains Saturday to Heavy snow on Sunday, then back to 60s next week.  

[OHweather]

Bit of an out of nowhere kind of lake enhanced snow setup for Sunday. Certain things that look good, a few question-marks. A closed low dropping across eastern Lake Erie into northern PA on Sunday is a good start synoptically. Conditions maximize for several hours downwind of Lake Erie from mid-late morning through much of the afternoon tomorrow...with favorable conditions lasting a few hours longer into the evening farther east into NW PA. In this window, forecast soundings show the unstable layer over the lake deepening into the DGZ as EL heights climb, with an isothermal layer and weak synoptic lift above the unstable layer giving a period of rather deep snow growth. It'll snow pretty good in the upslope areas for several hours as this happens. Synoptic moisture pulls away quickly into Sunday night with temperatures aloft starting to warm too, so expect snow to wind down pretty quickly into Sunday night. 

It's a somewhat brief window and won't be super cold, with the best snow definitely happening during the daylight on Sunday in mid-March. I still think it'll accumulate but a little colder or more snow falling at night would've been ideal. I think in northern OH, a lot of areas from north central OH points east will see 1-3" of snow, increasing to 2-4" in the metro area and hills of the secondary snowbelt and 3-6" across the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt. Less right next to the lake. It's certainly possible that the preferred WNW flow lake enhanced upslope areas in eastern Cuyahoga and northern/central Geauga see a small area of 6-8" type amounts. Into PA the snow probably will also focus in the higher terrain inland, though with a slightly longer duration and more terrain (and slightly more favorable soundings overall) so I think it's a more solid 6-10" with perhaps some locally higher amounts in the higher terrain of NW PA, especially in the eastern half of Erie County extending into SW NY. To me this feels like a warning event for inland PA and more of an advisory event for the NE OH snowbelt (despite potential for a local 6-8" bullseye, I don't think it'll be super impactful), but the watch is out for Geauga so maybe you'll get a warning there. I'm off this weekend so it'll be nice to just watch it snow tomorrow. Even outside of the snowbelt, with the synoptic lift, WNW flow, and some Lake Michigan moisture there should be some decent snow showers with light accums all the way down towards Mansfield points east, so everyone should get at least a bit of snow. 

[NEOH]

3” of snow overnight. Looks like mid winter out there. Was really hoping we we were done with this. 

[OHweather]

12 minutes ago, NEOH said:

3” of snow overnight. Looks like mid winter out there. Was really hoping we we were done with this. 

The beauty of it is it'll be in the 60s Tuesday  - Friday! So this won't last long. As I'm sure everyone is shocked to hear, I will always root for the snow, but I've also enjoyed some of these very mild temperatures and look forward to them returning quickly. 

 

The band that dropped those 2-3" amounts in parts of Cuyahoga and Geauga with a surface trough axis fell apart before coming into here, I have about 0.5" so far. We should see WNW to NW flow lake enhancement set-up quickly through mid-morning, which will focus on the higher terrain, and then subside quickly this evening.