LakeEffectOH Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 32 minutes ago, OHweather said: It’s been a while since we’ve had a strong NW flow event that pushes the best snow into those southern secondary Snowbelt hills like this. I may not be correct here, but it seems like the last Huron connection we've had was in 2020. Before then, we'd get at least one per year. Bigger LES events seem to be going to WNY/Buffalo since about 2016 - the year the long term eastern snow drought began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 1 hour ago, NEOH said: Your area always does well so I don't doubt 8" fell. There was a consistent blob of heavy snow around and just north of 322 yesterday afternoon. The ground was soaked from the rain prior to the snow so definitely some compaction. Yes, in Solon, where I work, it was a rain/snow mix all day. It wasn't til I practically crossed the Chester township line when everything became covered with 1-3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 6 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said: I may not be correct here, but it seems like the last Huron connection we've had was in 2020. Before then, we'd get at least one per year. Bigger LES events seem to be going to WNY/Buffalo since about 2016 - the year the long term eastern snow drought began. There was a warning-level event from a Huron band in the metro area in either early 2020 or 2021. Not entirely sure which, I was in NJ but remember a Huron band in the metro with great ratios and decent totals. Otherwise, there was a marginal Huron connection into the metro area in January of 2022 that yielded a few inches. There haven’t been many notable ones the last several years. Overall, it feels like we get bigger events from Lake Huron less often than we did when I was growing up in the 2000s. In this event the Huron band stayed farther east, it was more of a classic lake enhancement/upslope event with a NW flow…those have also been lacking in recent winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 It has been nice to have snow on the ground all week... definitely helped make it more festive. It is melting and the rain tomorrow should finish most of it off. Considering how bad the pattern has been we've been pretty lucky with snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted December 22, 2023 Share Posted December 22, 2023 2 hours ago, NEOH said: It has been nice to have snow on the ground all week... definitely helped make it more festive. It is melting and the rain tomorrow should finish most of it off. Considering how bad the pattern has been we've been pretty lucky with snowfall. I agree it was nice. Sad to see it go but know it will be back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Woke up to 1.5" of snow this morning. Nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Snow cover has taken a beating today and should be gone by the end of the day. It will be interesting to see if the models respond/change for the weekend storm once this one passes. Would be great to see an Ohio river track to PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It'd be nice to maybe get some lake effect at least if we're gonna get all these 43 degree rainers while everyone else from New England to Arkansas to Chicago cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 51 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: It'd be nice to maybe get some lake effect at least if we're gonna get all these 43 degree rainers while everyone else from New England to Arkansas to Chicago cash in Yeah, we've been bleeding "warmth" from the lake with very little to show for it. Lake temps are still around 40 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, NEOH said: Yeah, we've been bleeding "warmth" from the lake with very little to show for it. Lake temps are still around 40 or so. Since the lake is a "warm" 40 deg., It's possible we get a lot of LEH & LES snow, starting late Friday and lasting for several days due to the Arctic air settling in for at least the next week. Most guidance has consistently shown potentially heavy snow totals for a few days now. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/9/2024 at 5:36 PM, LakeEffectOH said: Since the lake is a "warm" 40 deg., It's possible we get a lot of LEH & LES snow, starting late Friday and lasting for several days due to the Arctic air settling in for at least the next week. Most guidance has consistently shown potentially heavy snow totals for a few days now. Fingers crossed! Really couldn't draw it up any worse... low cutting northwest of us with limit wrap around snow... then a WSW'erly wind direction taking the lake effect to western new york. Not a great start to the year weather wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 24 minutes ago, NEOH said: Really couldn't draw it up any worse... low cutting northwest of us with limit wrap around snow... then a WSW'erly wind direction taking the lake effect to western new york. Not a great start to the year weather wise. and at least a week of temps 0-10 at night and 20 or below during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 55 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: and at least a week of temps 0-10 at night and 20 or below during the day Brutal stretch for sure. You might get some lake effect up near the lakeshore... or at least a good view of the bands offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 hours ago, NEOH said: Really couldn't draw it up any worse... low cutting northwest of us with limit wrap around snow... then a WSW'erly wind direction taking the lake effect to western new york. Not a great start to the year weather wise. Yeah, I spoke too soon. Blame me, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Nice little snow band over me right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Gee, in Lakewood Sunday morning, there was a snow coating on the windshields of parked cars. And that is all there is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It didn't take long... ice covered western basin already. Will be interesting to see how much ice spreads across the central basin over the next couple of days. Just last week water temps were in the still in the upper 30's and now ice cover. We will probably get a favorable LES set-up now that ice cover is on the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 In spite of the ice, I’m probably more optimistic about the next 4 days regarding snow locally than I’ve been about any 4 day stretch so far this winter. Which isn’t saying too much 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 20 hours ago, OHweather said: In spite of the ice, I’m probably more optimistic about the next 4 days regarding snow locally than I’ve been about any 4 day stretch so far this winter. Which isn’t saying too much Good to hear this! Looks like there should be several opportunities for system and lake enhanced/effect snow Thurs -Sat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 21 hours ago, OHweather said: In spite of the ice, I’m probably more optimistic about the next 4 days regarding snow locally than I’ve been about any 4 day stretch so far this winter. Which isn’t saying too much Ha. Just read the AFD you wrote... hopefully this event works out. Confidence is increasing in at least a light snow area-wide late Thursday night into Friday following by lake effect snow later Friday into the weekend. There is some potential for a more notable synoptic snow if the more amplified solution with Friday`s system proves correct, though that widespread snowier outcome is still on the "less likely" side. Regardless, the set-up looks favorable for notable lake enhanced/effect snow Friday into Friday night from the Cleveland metro area into both the primary and secondary snowbelt with a north-northwest flow. While growing ice in the western and perhaps central basins may be a small negative, there should still be enough open water for a robust lake response. Ice needs to be thick and locked in to really limit that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, NEOH said: Ha. Just read the AFD you wrote... hopefully this event works out. Confidence is increasing in at least a light snow area-wide late Thursday night into Friday following by lake effect snow later Friday into the weekend. There is some potential for a more notable synoptic snow if the more amplified solution with Friday`s system proves correct, though that widespread snowier outcome is still on the "less likely" side. Regardless, the set-up looks favorable for notable lake enhanced/effect snow Friday into Friday night from the Cleveland metro area into both the primary and secondary snowbelt with a north-northwest flow. While growing ice in the western and perhaps central basins may be a small negative, there should still be enough open water for a robust lake response. Ice needs to be thick and locked in to really limit that. The satellite loop from this afternoon is encouraging...not really much in the central basin and the ice out west has moved some, and you can tell there's some flux through it still. We'll see how much more can grow the next couple of days...tonight will be quite cold so I'm sure it will grow, but we get more strong SW winds over the lake tomorrow. Winds get much lighter Thursday-Thursday night but air temps over the water won't be as cold then as they will be tonight. I'm sure there will be net ice growth between now and Friday, but east of the islands should still be open enough for a decent heat/moisture flux. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Well, we're under a Winter Storm Watch... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 230 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 OHZ009>013-019>021-180330- /O.NEW.KCLE.WS.A.0001.240119T0600Z-240120T0600Z/ Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Huron-Medina-Summit- Including the cities of Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Norwalk, Willard, Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, and Akron 230 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Ohio. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. Interesting that Ashtabula county was left out. Me thinks that Ashtabula has different criteria for winter storm messages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 49 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said: Well, we're under a Winter Storm Watch... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Cleveland OH 230 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 OHZ009>013-019>021-180330- /O.NEW.KCLE.WS.A.0001.240119T0600Z-240120T0600Z/ Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Huron-Medina-Summit- Including the cities of Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria, North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Chardon, South Russell, Bainbridge, Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton, Norwalk, Willard, Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, and Akron 230 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Ohio. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. Interesting that Ashtabula county was left out. Me thinks that Ashtabula has different criteria for winter storm messages. Same criteria for warnings and advisories across the whole CWA (though if push came to shove we may be slightly more inclined to issue products for marginal amounts outside of the primary snowbelt). We have a bit less snow in the forecast in Ashtabula and NW PA than where the watch is, though I suspect we may eventually need warnings out that way because it will keep snowing through Saturday downwind of Lake Huron. I am excited for the snow and excited for the forecast shift tonight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 45 minutes ago, OHweather said: Same criteria for warnings and advisories across the whole CWA (though if push came to shove we may be slightly more inclined to issue products for marginal amounts outside of the primary snowbelt). We have a bit less snow in the forecast in Ashtabula and NW PA than where the watch is, though I suspect we may eventually need warnings out that way because it will keep snowing through Saturday downwind of Lake Huron. I am excited for the snow and excited for the forecast shift tonight! Any insight in the Toledo area tonight. Need to make decisions regarding school closings and it looks like we could have a couple inches in Toledo by 8am. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Frog Town said: Any insight in the Toledo area tonight. Need to make decisions regarding school closings and it looks like we could have a couple inches in Toledo by 8am. Thoughts? The setup tonight into tomorrow is odd...narrow band of snow, the lift isn't that strong, but it looks like it'll be a very fluffy / high-ratio snow so it'll stack easily...plus it will be falling onto cold roads. I'm not that impressed through about 7am, seems like any accumulations by than are on the order of half an inch to an inch in Toledo. Lift does get a bit stronger starting right around 7-8am, so I could see spots getting another couple inches the rest of the morning. It should become much lighter during the afternoon. I realistically think the Toledo area gets 1-3" but with the heaviest occurring between like 8am and Noon. Someone could get a fluffy 4" but most will be less and feel like 3-4" amounts would be more likely into MI. There will be a sharp southern cut-off, so there's some chance it stays a bit farther north, though a total whiff seems pretty unlikely. I I think Friday morning is a little more clear cut, it'll snow 2-4 or 3-5" everywhere out there with peak rates between 3-9am (give or take). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, OHweather said: The setup tonight into tomorrow is odd...narrow band of snow, the lift isn't that strong, but it looks like it'll be a very fluffy / high-ratio snow so it'll stack easily...plus it will be falling onto cold roads. I'm not that impressed through about 7am, seems like any accumulations by than are on the order of half an inch to an inch in Toledo. Lift does get a bit stronger starting right around 7-8am, so I could see spots getting another couple inches the rest of the morning. It should become much lighter during the afternoon. I realistically think the Toledo area gets 1-3" but with the heaviest occurring between like 8am and Noon. Someone could get a fluffy 4" but most will be less and feel like 3-4" amounts would be more likely into MI. There will be a sharp southern cut-off, so there's some chance it stays a bit farther north, though a total whiff seems pretty unlikely. I I think Friday morning is a little more clear cut, it'll snow 2-4 or 3-5" everywhere out there with peak rates between 3-9am (give or take). Thank you! Toledo area superintendents appreciate your insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Nice to wake up and see this in the forecast, and great to have OHWeather forecasting this event for CLE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 hours ago, Frog Town said: Thank you! Toledo area superintendents appreciate your insight. I see it barely flaked before about 8am but is snowing half decently now. Hopefully, most or all stayed open today but close tomorrow (which is probably the correct answer in this situation) 46 minutes ago, NEOH said: Nice to wake up and see this in the forecast, and great to have OHWeather forecasting this event for CLE. Hopefully the typical "OHweather reduction" doesn't come into play since we did all the headlines this morning That was my last shift of the stretch so I get to just watch it play out and enjoy the snow. Have a feeling that the abundant synoptic moisture and good ratios will lead to this performing well, hence the somewhat aggressive forecast, but always get slightly nervous when model QPF is somewhat modest and we need ratios to get the totals to pan out. It can work though. The lake effect will linger all the way through Saturday in the primary snowbelt...likely won't be heavy by then outside of the Lake Huron band (which will be farther east) but it will snow for a long time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, NEOH said: Nice to wake up and see this in the forecast, and great to have OHWeather forecasting this event for CLE. Agreed! We are due for a good one, hopefully this is it. Always enjoy ready the OHweather nws discussions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Betsy Kling on WKYC-TV was talking about a Back Door Lake Effect Snow Storm this weekend. With the moisture coming from Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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