Trent Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Wow. What an impressive event. Easily 3" in 3 hours. Should have 6" for the calendar day shortly. KCLE reported inch per hour rates for at least 2 hours. I wonder if the airport will have difficulty adding two separate storms in one day for a final daily total? With the measuring problems they have, I wouldn't be surprised. The afternoon climate report showed 2", so there should be another 2-3" on top of that since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The rules for warnings and advisories are bizarre. Let's say that the exact same snow overnight was lake effect and 2-3" fell before dawn and then the bands shifted before expecting to fall back into the area this afternoon and drop 3-4" more. Advisories certainly would have been issued if not warnings. It seems unusual to have 2 separate "decent" snow events separated less than 12 hours apart. Most places will have a calendar total of 6" today easily, of course CLE will have 3". The snow out there now is pretty intense, I'd imagine rush hour commute will be pretty bad in an hour. 24 hour advisory criteria is 6", so technically that was met, although the break in the snow might be why they didn't issue an advisory until 5:30PM. The advisory criteria for most offices specifies that they can issue advisories for lighter amounts if there are aggravating circumstances...I'd say 1" per hour rates during rush hour counts. Hopefully the commute wasn't too bad although I'm sure it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Appears some lake enhancement is trying to develop as the main swath slides south and winds shift. My snow depth just broke last year's max depth of 16 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Appears some lake enhancement is trying to develop as the main swath slides south and winds shift. My snow depth just broke last year's max depth of 16 inches. The back part of this band looks intense. Up to 3.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The rules for warnings and advisories are bizarre. Let's say that the exact same snow overnight was lake effect and 2-3" fell before dawn and then the bands shifted before expecting to fall back into the area this afternoon and drop 3-4" more. Advisories certainly would have been issued if not warnings. It seems unusual to have 2 separate "decent" snow events separated less than 12 hours apart. Most places will have a calendar total of 6" today easily, of course CLE will have 3". The snow out there now is pretty intense, I'd imagine rush hour commute will be pretty bad in an hour. CLE was very specific about when and why the advisory was issued in the afd update.. I'm guessing someone read them the riot act about forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The back part of this band looks intense. Up to 3.5". Yeah, should be one last heavy burst... If it can maintain we should close in on 5" for the second round, and 8" on the the day. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 These bands are ripping with the lower temps. I'm at 7" for the day already with almost 4.5" this evening. Definitely warning material conditions out there. 17" depth now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm sensing hints of optimism in Trent's recent posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm sensing hints of optimism in Trent's recent posts This is probably the snowiest week of my life! Yesterday was incredible. Almost 8" of synoptic snow from two separate systems in one day. Impressive. And the 4.8" total for both systems at KCLE is probably a good 2-3" too low. The KCLE depth is also a joke: ...CUYAHOGA COUNTY... BROADVIEW HTS 21.0 700 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER 1 SSE PARMA 18.5 1015 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER LAKEWOOD 18.0 900 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER CHAGRIN FALLS 17.5 530 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER CLEVELAND-W SIDE 16.0 715 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER GARFIELD HTS 15.0 645 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER EUCLID 14.0 945 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER CLE AIRPORT 9.0 700 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER ...GEAUGA COUNTY... BURTON 19.0 845 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER MONTVILLE 19.0 500 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER CHARDON 18.5 730 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER CLARIDON TWP 18.0 1019 PM 2/04 SNOW SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 4.8" from round two, and daily total of 7.8". Depth ranges from 19" - 21" in the yard. What a week. Trends for this weekend are not looking that great. CLE's mentions the NE flow locking in the cold around the lakeshore but unless we see a shift south in the models I'm not sold on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Pretty sure we have surpassed our peak depth from last year. Amazing after such a lame December, we have had snowcover since the beginning of Jan. Don't see this melting anytime soon either. Piles are getting high along my driveway, and the side of roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 CLE still mentioning all snow to the north over the weekend... But still leave the door open for mixing. Not sure why they are so bullish. Was reading in the NE forum that the short waves haven't been sampled. Perhaps that has something to do with it. Seems like it would take a big shift South the remain all snow. The one caveat is that the lake is ice covered. Tomorrow's model runs should bring clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Well, this weekend is looking rather balmy and wet. We should be able to maintain a decent snowpack though. Shoveled a path in the yard for our dog and noticed the ground was wet underneath the snow... Not frozen at all. Considering how cold it has been just goes to show how well snow insulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Wednesday night-Thursday night looks somewhat interesting to me...deep upper level trough will swing through with a couple of surface wind shifts and decent low to mid level moisture on the GFS and Euro. MODIS imagery showed a number of large cracks in the ice yesterday through the clouds, and with warm weather today and some shifting winds over the next few days those cracks could expand. Could possibly be enough to wring out some moderate LES, especially in the higher terrain. We did have a decent "frozen lake event" Friday January 30th and even had a decent band Monday morning on the back side of the storm, so this could be something to watch. No MODIS imagery from today yet, but here are the two "best" shots from a COD visible loop from today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 40/30 Imby. Not a disaster but not good. When do temps fall below freezing again.... Tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Good news about the lake ice cracks. I believe CLe mentioned this in their disco too. We're going to need a refresher after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 40/30 Imby. Not a disaster but not good. When do temps fall below freezing again.... Tomorrow afternoon?Probably later tomorrow evening...most of tomorrow could be near or better than 40 I think. GFS and NAM showing potential for zr tomorrow night too before a change to light snow early Monday. It's 54F here, so it could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Probably later tomorrow evening...most of tomorrow could be near or better than 40 I think. GFS and NAM showing potential for zr tomorrow night too before a change to light snow early Monday. It's 54F here, so it could be worse Ah, spring in southern Ohio. Down to 36/30 here. Melting isn't crazy but rain tomorrow will hurt. Hopefully we can squeeze a les event with the open water. Not holding my breath though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Snowpack seems pretty resilient. Temps are creeping into the mid 40s now though. It should freeze up solid by tomorrow. Hopefully some refresher snows this week as it looks pretty ugly out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Hopefully this warm weather is opening the lake a little bit. 47 out according to wunderground. Luckily the majority of the snow is dense and not les fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Hopefully, CLE issues advisories soon for tonight. Forecast soundings on the NAM/RAP/GFS all indicate a good few hours of surface temps below freezing with an above freezing layer aloft, with saturated low levels indicating that light freezing rain or perhaps later at night a little sleet is possible. With the short term models getting temps below 25F before the warm layer aloft goes away, this could be a pretty bad event tonight in terms of travel impact for anyone out after 9-10PM. Temps over Lake Erie are in the upper 20's, and temps north of the lake near BUF are already in the upper 10's, so once the front starts pushing south this evening I don't see anyone having issues quickly falling below freezing and seeing any rain change to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 44/36 IMBY. Snow is melting but not rapidly. Winds just turned NNE'erly a few minutes ago. Have to wonder if the colder air will start seeping into the lakeshore. I see Erie is at 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 CLE is really riding a fine line (for some reason) by not issuing advisories for more of NE Ohio for freezing rain tonight (Ashtabula Lakeshore and Erie Co. PA have advisories from them, that's it). Willoughby and Ashtabula are down to 34 and 33 respectively with a NE wind, and Erie is down to 26. The front appears to be slowly drifting south. My guess is the Cleveland metro abruptly drops below freezing around 8PM give or take. Precip is starting to fill in on radar over lower MI and northern IN. The HRRR and RAP don't support snow as a precip type until 1AM or later in Cleveland (and even later down in Akron and Youngstown) due to a warm layer aloft, and London, ON and Dunkirk, NY are both reporting light freezing rain with surface temps of 18F and 21F respectively. Even KDET and Windsor, ON are reporting light freezing rain right now. With temperatures falling into the 20's while freezing rain is ongoing later, I would expect roads that aren't treated to ice over nicely. CLE expects a straight rain to sleet/snow changeover, however forecast soundings for KCLE on the RAP/NAM show about 4 hours with the surface temp below freezing and a fairly deep +2 to +3C warm layer just aloft. That isn't a sleet sounding. Even later tonight, the deep moisture gets stripped away from the DGZ, so it wouldn't shock me if a true changeover to all snow has trouble occurring at all tonight. I really don't get what CLE is doing. I'm trying to say it as respectfully as possible, because the potential for ZR with air temps falling way below freezing (it's not like the temps will sit at 31 or 32F during this) should be an easy advisory call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Boom. There's the token WWA for freezing rain for CLE's whole CWA. Still in the 50's in Athens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Toledo had a light glaze tonight, then some sleet, then some snow. Unknown Precipitation "UP" in the ASOS reports is frequently sleet (although I have no idea why) KTDZ 090016Z AUTO 03010G17KT 3SM FZRA BR OVC005 00/M02 A2981 RMK AO2 UPB12E13FZRAB13 P0000 I1001 T00001017 TSNO KTDZ 090353Z AUTO 03011G18KT 3SM -SN BR OVC009 M02/M04 A2989 RMK AO2 SNB26 CIG 006V013 SLP125 P0001 T10221044 TSNO TOL KTOL 090352Z 04010KT 8SM FEW007 OVC016 M02/M03 A2988 RMK AO2 UPE02B49E51FZRAB02E13SNB13E49 SLP124 P0003 T10221033 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Last night's GFS says next week will be fun across northern Ohio. On Sunday 850 temps plunge to -30C, haven't seen that in decades. That's followed by a 988 low skirting north of the Ohio River, which deposits two feet across the area. That's the epitome of a weenie run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Light glaze of ice coating everything this morning. Anywhere from 8" - 11" on the ground. The glaze compacted the snow. This stuff won't be going anywhere for awhile. It took until 10:30 last night for temps to drop IMBY... while it looked like the immediate lakeshore cooled off around 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Ya noticed a light glaze on the deck and driveway. Definitely a solid snowpack still. I figured we would have lost more. Looks like an interesting next few weeks. Might make up for the snow that melted. Won't count on any le weds-Thurs, but would be a nice surprise. I imagine any cracks that did form will probably be re-freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Somewhat difficult LES forecasts for Thursday-Thursday night and again Friday night-Saturday night. For Thursday-Thursday night, there will probably be some synoptic snow along a cold front late Wednesday night that could drop an inch. It appears to get cold enough for lake effect Thursday morning with a WNW or NW wind behind the first front with decent synoptic moisture in place as low pressure starts transferring to the East Coast. With an icy lake and short fetch by this point, upstream lake connections or synoptic low level moisture would be key to decent LES. The GFS and NAM both appear to try to drop another trough across the lake into northern OH later Thursday morning or Thursday afternoon, with decent inversion heights and moderate instability behind it, with fairly deep moisture still in place. Winds could veer a little more to the NW or NNW later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. If the lake was open I'd expect a decent burst with this type of feature, and there may be enough open water for that to still occur, especially in the higher terrain. At present, the models don't show extremely dry low level air nosing in until later Thursday night, so we'll see if some orographic lift snow can continue Thursday afternoon and evening behind the potential second wind shift. Lake Huron moisture should probably stay in Ashtabula County or NW PA with a NW or NNW flow for this event. Unless Lake Huron moisture creeps farther west, I could see this event dropping 4" or so over the course of 24 hours in the favored higher terrain, with a couple inches across the lower elevations of the Cleveland metro. Nothing really to write home about. But we'll see how the models handle the wind directions, synoptic moisture and upstream lake connections as we get closer. There could be a small window of clearing over the lake tomorrow, so maybe we'll get a satellite shot of the ice. With above freezing temps on Wednesday and decent SWrly winds shifting to decent WNW to NW winds, I don't think ice will expand too much and could shift around more, but weekend satellite shots only showed some openings in the central basin. As for Friday night-Saturday night, this would be a very interesting setup with an open lake. As is, the GFS/Euro generally agree in dropping a low right across Lake Erie into Saturday, possibly bringing a couple inches of synoptic snow. The models are trying to hint at an inverted trough hanging back over the lake as this low also transfers to the East Coast and intensifies, with good synoptic moisture. The flow for this event currently looks to be more northerly, which could allow Lake Huron moisture to contribute to the Cleveland metro and help make up for the lack of open waters on Lake Erie. The winds look fairly well aligned with very deep cold air and good moisture through Saturday and into Saturday night, so even with a mostly frozen lake, I could see a combination of light synoptic snows, Lake Huron moisture and any moisture picked up off of Lake Erie and orographic lift all combining to get a 6"+ event in the higher terrain in the secondary and primary Snowbelts. This may seem like a gusty call, but IF the evolution of the event doesn't change significantly, upstream lake connections (in this case Huron) and good synoptic moisture could combine to overcome the ice on Lake Erie to an extent. One concern is temperatures will get cold enough to stunt snow growth by later Saturday, which could keep totals somewhat in check. So, two events late this week into this weekend. The Friday night-Saturday night one looks more interesting by far in my opinion, although the Thursday event could definitely "freshen" the snow pack for you guys at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 OHWeather. There is definitely potential which each time frame for at least a couple inches to cover the glacier. Since moisture seems adequate, seems like the deciding factor will be ice cover. The trough passages would be our best bet for maximized covergence... but short lived. Maybe we will get peak at the ice later today as clouds are starting to clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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