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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


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8 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Occasional dustings of snow over the last 36 hours here that have struggled to stay on the ground for long during the daylight hours...running "event total" of 0.8" with less than 0.5" (so a T) on the ground at the moment. Racking it up this season. 

Nice to see the snow flying again. Temps are colder today so the grass is mostly covered. About an inch or so here. Take what we can get at this point I guess.

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52 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Nice to see the snow flying again. Temps are colder today so the grass is mostly covered. About an inch or so here. Take what we can get at this point I guess.

There were some nice bursts of borderline moderate snow last evening that quickly covered anything that wasn't paved, which was nice to see...even if the good snow lasted all of 20-30 minutes where I was! I'm getting a little more optimistic we get a crack at a better pattern for a couple of weeks around the end of Jan/beginning of Feb...but it's quite possible we don't get much of anything until then. Low odds we get a little wet snow with the low pressure going by this Friday if it tracks just right I guess, but I'm not optimistic. So, we'll see if that brief period around the end of this month can deliver. I'm sure we'll get some snow, but it's been scraps so far if you don't live up towards Erie or Buffalo (not that I'd want what Buffalo has had to go through this winter). 

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29 minutes ago, OHweather said:

There were some nice bursts of borderline moderate snow last evening that quickly covered anything that wasn't paved, which was nice to see...even if the good snow lasted all of 20-30 minutes where I was! I'm getting a little more optimistic we get a crack at a better pattern for a couple of weeks around the end of Jan/beginning of Feb...but it's quite possible we don't get much of anything until then. Low odds we get a little wet snow with the low pressure going by this Friday if it tracks just right I guess, but I'm not optimistic. So, we'll see if that brief period around the end of this month can deliver. I'm sure we'll get some snow, but it's been scraps so far if you don't live up towards Erie or Buffalo (not that I'd want what Buffalo has had to go through this winter). 

Good to hear the optimism toward the end of the month. The lack of lake effect in this area has been crazy. Can’t recall going this far into the season without a good event. 

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3 hours ago, NEOH said:

The 12z suite have a general 3-6" across northern ohio with the late week storm. Really low confidence but that would likely be the largest storm of the season. 

Ya take what we can this winter since it seems snow is hard to come by.  Should be a scenic plastering with the marginal temps.  

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14 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Ya take what we can this winter since it seems snow is hard to come by.  Should be a scenic plastering with the marginal temps.  

Models still look good... even increased snow totals across the the lakeshore counties. The ground will be wet, and with marginal temps there will likely be a lot of melting to start. 

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6 hours ago, NEOH said:

Models still look good... even increased snow totals across the the lakeshore counties. The ground will be wet, and with marginal temps there will likely be a lot of melting to start. 

There will certainly be a lot going against efficient accumulations.  

CLE pretty bullish with 6"+ across the snowbelt.  

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I'm actually not extremely enamored with this setup...think we'll get a quick 1-3" of synoptic snow Thursday night in north-central and northeast OH. There's probably a lull of sorts early Friday between the synoptic snow and lake enhancement that will ramp up into the morning and continue through most of the day, with that activity ending Friday evening. The lake enhanced snow may be moderate for a time on Friday, especially in the hills and especially with some sort of Lake Huron connection coming into play with winds going NNW to nearly due N. Even during the lake enhancement, I think we're looking at persistent light to moderate snow, as the instability is marginal and the synoptic lift is modest...the hills/upslope will definitely help, but it'll be hard to get 1"+/hour rates out of this.

With the snow rather spread out, a struggle to get heavy rates, marginal ratios and warm ground, I don't feel this will be that exciting. That said, it will snow for a while and in the hills upslope/lake enhancement will add a good amount of QPF. I actually could see us needing to up amounts a bit farther west in the hills of the secondary snowbelt...someone in northern Geauga as well as Erie Co PA could squeeze out 8" with the upslope, but it'd be over a 24-30 hour period and I think most will probably be more in the 3-6" type range in the inland primary snowbelt. Guessing we'll need some advisories tonight or early tomorrow for it...kind of hoping we don't try pushing the warning button unless things look more impressive. 

The "negativity" aside, it will snow and accumulate and should look nice on the trees. More sustained cold may arrive towards the end of January...or at the least, a return of more frequent transient cold shots between the 50 degree days. 

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Picked up 2.5" last night. Nice scenery with the wet snow covering everything this morning. Looks like this will under perform with snow totals but at least it will look like winter for a couple of days. With the strong NNW'erly winds I'm surprised the snow isn't pushing farther inland. 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Measured 0.7” before 8am…some light accums since, probably over an inch total. It’s modest, but looks nice on the trees. Very fine flakes occasionally mixing with a bit of freezing drizzle at the moment. 

Very small flake size currently. The highest amounts will be in very localized areas.  Radar seems to be blossoming a bit over the lake. 

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3 hours ago, NEOH said:

Picked up 2.5" last night. Nice scenery with the wet snow covering everything this morning. Looks like this will under perform with snow totals but at least it will look like winter for a couple of days. With the strong NNW'erly winds I'm surprised the snow isn't pushing farther inland. 

 

 

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Very scenic out there this morning!  About the same here as well.  Driving to Chardon this morning, seems like most places close to the same 2-4" eyeballing. 

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