Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

35 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said:

Hmm wonder what made my pivotal image disappear 

Unfortunately the band never set up here just missed 

Wow. Razors edge right there. More opportunities to come though. 

[dta1984]

1.75" here.  Definitely underwhelming, but had low expectations.  Hoping Saturday -Sunday trends a little better.  

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

1.75" here.  Definitely underwhelming, but had low expectations.  Hoping Saturday -Sunday trends a little better.  

Yeah... hate to waste such great parameters with a WSW wind direction. Maybe a few inches as the winds come back around Saturday night/Sunday. 

[WHEATCENT]

NWS watch posted, interesting. 

[NEOH]

4 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

NWS watch posted, interesting. 

Noticed that this morning. Looks like a pretty short window. You are in a good spot as the band should be very strong near the lake as it pushes inland. Hopefully not a replica of yesterday morning where the band quickly falls apart after pushing inland. 

[OHweather]

A little surprised we hoisted a watch for this already...that said...the synoptic support, moisture, and instability over the lake support a very intense and high-ratio snowband (potentially with thunder and lightning) crashing ashore late Saturday evening into the overnight. However, this band along the front will move quickly so it's probably just a quick coating to couple of inches, then we see where any lingering bands set-up in the WNW flow behind the front. As NEOH said, a short window as ridging and dry air quickly build in on Sunday. It should snow decently under bands into Sunday morning but expect stuff to start shifting northeast and falling apart into the afternoon. While the flow over the lake goes WNW, with ridging building in quickly I could see the band getting to northern/northeastern Cuyahoga and southern Lake into Geauga behind the front and sitting for several hours before weakening/lifting, with probably one or two more WNW-ESE oriented bands with upstream connections into eastern Ashtabula and NW PA. These bands, especially the westernmost one into the east side of Cleveland, will be the best shot to crack warning criteria (6"+). It's certainly possible, but I think warning amounts are pretty localized as the band along the front moves too quickly and the whole event is short duration. Still almost 36 hours to monitor trends in wind direction and the overall organization/longevity of any bands. 

[NEOH]

Surprised to see lake effect warnings for 6-12”. The models do look good for those of us on the southern fringe. A blend would be good for eastern cuyahoga into geauga county.

[WHEATCENT]

The Canadian is the only one that favors the lake county lakeshore not sure how i feel about that haha 

[OHweather]

Still looks like a very intense burst of snow pushes onshore into most of the primary snowbelt late this evening with the cold frontal passage. However, winds come around quickly so the burst will be transient, with WNW flow bands setting up behind it. Still a short duration event, with ridging building in midday Sunday and beyond, significantly weakening bands and shifting them back northeast again quickly through the afternoon.

Between the synoptic moisture/support with the cold front, apparent connection to southern Lake Michigan, and crazy instability, parameters are very favorable for heavy snow late this evening through early Sunday. Conditions quickly decline on Sunday, though bands can probably still produce localized moderate to heavy rates through the morning before losing more punch by the afternoon. It will also be windy and the snow will be very fluffy, so it'll blow around. 

In terms of accums and the warnings, given the short duration of the event and transient bands I do worry that many areas will struggle to quite get to the forecast snow amounts. I do think where those WNW flow bands set-up for several hours later tonight into Sunday morning can get to the forecast, as rates of 1-2" per hour are likely through early Sunday under more organized bands, however those bands will not impact the whole area so those higher totals will be localized...otherwise, probably a general spray of light to moderate accums from the burst along the front followed by the lingering snow showers outside any bands. There is good model consensus that one band with a Lake Michigan connection sets up from somewhere in northern or northeastern Cuyahoga County into Geauga and perhaps far southern Lake, and that may be where some of the heaviest totals occur. Otherwise, we often see a couple other bands set-up in this type of flow from parts of Ashtabula County east across Erie County.

Here is a very rough representation of the totals I'm loosely thinking of:

A big question mark is where that westernmost band sets up...winds briefly come around to 285 or 290 for a few hours early Sunday, which could get it into a good portion of Cuyahoga and even northern Summit/Portage, but it will have an upstream connection to Lake Michigan and we've seen those types of bands get stuck up closer to Euclid or Mayfield before. Otherwise, I think the rest of the inland core snowbelt gets marginal warning criteria amounts with locally heavier amounts under a couple of persistent bands, with advisory amounts surrounding that. I think the warnings as they are were probably all needed, though I could quibble about the Ashtabula and Erie lakeshore zones maybe being more advisory-worthy I suppose. Cuyahoga has some bust potential, but that western band may be the most dominant and the vast majority of indications are it at least gets into the eastern suburbs, so I think there wasn't much choice but to warn Cuyahoga. 

I was talked into going up to Detroit later today through the game tomorrow, so I will not be home for this...I guess I'll see if there's any snow on the ground when I get back tomorrow evening. 

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Still looks like a very intense burst of snow pushes onshore into most of the primary snowbelt late this evening with the cold frontal passage. However, winds come around quickly so the burst will be transient, with WNW flow bands setting up behind it. Still a short duration event, with ridging building in midday Sunday and beyond, significantly weakening bands and shifting them back northeast again quickly through the afternoon.

Between the synoptic moisture/support with the cold front, apparent connection to southern Lake Michigan, and crazy instability, parameters are very favorable for heavy snow late this evening through early Sunday. Conditions quickly decline on Sunday, though bands can probably still produce localized moderate to heavy rates through the morning before losing more punch by the afternoon. It will also be windy and the snow will be very fluffy, so it'll blow around. 

In terms of accums and the warnings, given the short duration of the event and transient bands I do worry that many areas will struggle to quite get to the forecast snow amounts. I do think where those WNW flow bands set-up for several hours later tonight into Sunday morning can get to the forecast, as rates of 1-2" per hour are likely through early Sunday under more organized bands, however those bands will not impact the whole area so those higher totals will be localized...otherwise, probably a general spray of light to moderate accums from the burst along the front followed by the lingering snow showers outside any bands. There is good model consensus that one band with a Lake Michigan connection sets up from somewhere in northern or northeastern Cuyahoga County into Geauga and perhaps far southern Lake, and that may be where some of the heaviest totals occur. Otherwise, we often see a couple other bands set-up in this type of flow from parts of Ashtabula County east across Erie County.

Here is a very rough representation of the totals I'm loosely thinking of:

A big question mark is where that westernmost band sets up...winds briefly come around to 285 or 290 for a few hours early Sunday, which could get it into a good portion of Cuyahoga and even northern Summit/Portage, but it will have an upstream connection to Lake Michigan and we've seen those types of bands get stuck up closer to Euclid or Mayfield before. Otherwise, I think the rest of the inland core snowbelt gets marginal warning criteria amounts with locally heavier amounts under a couple of persistent bands, with advisory amounts surrounding that. I think the warnings as they are were probably all needed, though I could quibble about the Ashtabula and Erie lakeshore zones maybe being more advisory-worthy I suppose. Cuyahoga has some bust potential, but that western band may be the most dominant and the vast majority of indications are it at least gets into the eastern suburbs, so I think there wasn't much choice but to warn Cuyahoga. 

I was talked into going up to Detroit later today through the game tomorrow, so I will not be home for this...I guess I'll see if there's any snow on the ground when I get back tomorrow evening. 

Your forecast looks good. Really hoping for the ridging to take its time moving in. Enjoy the game... that's a long way to go to watch the Browns

[dta1984]

Interesting that a few short rangers keep the bulk of the accumulation farther south, and not much near the lake shore.

[OHweather]

57 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Your forecast looks good. Really hoping for the ridging to take its time moving in. Enjoy the game... that's a long way to go to watch the Browns

Upper deck tickets were less than $20! Figured it was worth it, going up this evening and making half a weekend out of it. 

14 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Interesting that a few short rangers keep the bulk of the accumulation farther south, and not much near the lake shore.

I think that is a plausible scenario...the winds over the lake turn 90 degrees in 6 hours tonight, I feel like we're going to see that burst push through the lakeshore quickly. It will be heavy, but I'm not sure if it can add up more than a quick couple inches right near the water. 

[NEOH]

Just under 3" IMBY last night/this morning. Most of that fell in a short period as the band came south... the band pushed north rather quickly after making it down to around 422. 

[dta1984]

1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Just under 3" IMBY last night/this morning. Most of that fell in a short period as the band came south... the band pushed north rather quickly after making it down to around 422. 

Ya it sure moved quickly. Looks like eastern Cuyahoga did well with 6-8" near Lyndhurst.  

[Speedskater]

Cold Front - November 30th

Well it's an interesting weather day!

some data near Lakewood Park:

Nov. 30, 2022

12AM - 55.2°F
 2AM - 55.6°F
 7AM - 52.5°F
 9AM - 41.5°F
 2PM - 31.8°F

Rain  0.07 inch 8AM to 9:30AM

2PM Fairport Harbor WSW wind at 40 knots with gusts to 48 knots.  46 and 55 mph.

 

[WHEATCENT]

such a depressing December forecast not counting the like 2 weeks before this too. 

 

[NEOH]

13 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

such a depressing December forecast not counting the like 2 weeks before this too. 

 

Yeah, feels like we live in London with all of the fog lately. Hopefully on to better times soon. 

[NEOH]

Trends aren't good for any LES this coming weekend unless there are significant changes. With the low spinning near Western lake superior winds will not be in favorable direction... another congrats Western New York event. Shame to waste more of the lake warmth on a bad wind direction. Tough start to the season. 

[NEOH]

Back to back CMC weenie runs. Lets hope it is on to something. Will revisit this image next week.

 

 

 

[HighTechEE]

52 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Back to back CMC weenie runs. Lets hope it is on to something. Will revisit this image next week.

 

What date does this go out to 240 or 384 hours?

 

[WestMichigan]

22 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

 

240

[NEOH]

Euro ends with a somewhat similar solution. Different way to get there with the initial primary low to the NW. Just nice to have a storm to track for a change. 

 

[dta1984]

20 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Euro ends with a somewhat similar solution. Different way to get with the initial primary low to the NW. Just nice to have a storm to track for a change. 

 

Yep agreed, definitely liking the way things are starting to look as we get closer to Christmas. 

[NEOH]

26 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Yep agreed, definitely liking the way things are starting to look as we get closer to Christmas. 

Anything but a WSW'erly lake effect event and I will be pleased. A low spinning to the Northeast of us with a WNW wind  and plenty of moisture would be nice for a change. 

[Speedskater]

Off Topic:

Great Lake Erie visibility 2PM Wednesday. I don't remember better visibility from Lakewood Park!

The steam from the Perry nuke plant was bright (39 miles). The Timberlake/Eastlake smoke stacks looked like they were in downtown Cleveland (22 miles). The water crib antenna tower was very clear (4.3 miles). And the Avon Lake smoke stacks were bright( 13 miles).

And an optical illusion of seeing the Canadian shoreline. Other walkers commented to me on this (I had noticed it on arriving at the park). But at 50 plus miles I don't think that it was real.

 

[NEOH]

28 minutes ago, Speedskater said:

Off Topic:

Great Lake Erie visibility 2PM Wednesday. I don't remember better visibility from Lakewood Park!

The steam from the Perry nuke plant was bright (39 miles). The Timberlake/Eastlake smoke stacks looked like they were in downtown Cleveland (22 miles). The water crib antenna tower was very clear (4.3 miles). And the Avon Lake smoke stacks were bright( 13 miles).

And an optical illusion of seeing the Canadian shoreline. Other walkers commented to me on this (I had noticed it on arriving at the park). But at 50 plus miles I don't think that it was real.

 

Not sure about the visibility... maybe because it has been cloudy and dreary for weeks it seemed more clear :)? But seriously, we had dry air with a due easterly wind direction yesterday. 

[NEOH]

Euro has been remarkably consistent with next weeks storm threat. GFS is all over the map, the CMC is fairly close to the Euro. Only 6 more days of model watching 

[dta1984]

12 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Euro has been remarkably consistent with next weeks storm threat. GFS is all over the map, the CMC is fairly close to the Euro. Only 6 more days of model watching 

Going to be a long week lol.

Last night's Euro was quite the storm, just on the 10:1 maps.  

Definite potential to be snowy like. Christmas 2020.

[OHweather]

While it's been cold with good lake effect at times, this has quickly turned into a frustrating start to winter if you're not up the I-90 corridor east of Lake County, with another decent lake effect event this weekend largely aimed up the eastern lakeshore. BUF already has warnings out and we'll need something for Erie and perhaps Ashtabula Counties. That said, big cold is coming next week and I think it'll be hard to avoid a light synoptic snow/snow showers along the arctic front, followed by lake effect, later next week. Hopefully the wrapped up solutions come to fruition and we get a larger synoptic snow out of it...potential is there but I do worry it struggles to wrap up quickly enough. Plenty of time to watch trends. 

[NEOH]

24 minutes ago, OHweather said:

While it's been cold with good lake effect at times, this has quickly turned into a frustrating start to winter if you're not up the I-90 corridor east of Lake County, with another decent lake effect event this weekend largely aimed up the eastern lakeshore. BUF already has warnings out and we'll need something for Erie and perhaps Ashtabula Counties. That said, big cold is coming next week and I think it'll be hard to avoid a light synoptic snow/snow showers along the arctic front, followed by lake effect, later next week. Hopefully the wrapped up solutions come to fruition and we get a larger synoptic snow out of it...potential is there but I do worry it struggles to wrap up quickly enough. Plenty of time to watch trends. 

Definitely a frustrating  start with these WSW'erly lake effect set-ups. Just a couple of cold snaps and there will be ice on the lake . At the very least the lake effect set-up looks good next week.