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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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I'm curios what the official total will be at CLE. I have low confidence in any accuracy of measurement. The snowfall overnight and enhanced lake effect this morning was super high ratio, so theoretically CLE should have had a few more inches since midnight.

Interestingly CLE reported 0.72" on the METAR adding up each hourly observation. The snowfall was 7.2". I'm fairly certain they just took whatever the METAR reported and applied a straight 10:1 ratio. We all know in winter storms that those hourly totals are wrong. Doubtful they'll do a core sample for the real precip or actually post a real measurement.

 

It will be interesting to see what CLE reports. I noticed they listed a snow depth of 1" in the climate report. Clearly they aren't paying attention.

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CLE and BKL did report some light freezing rain last night at the tail end but temps at that point were already into the 20s. IMBY, I didn't notice any crust on the top of the snow, there might have been some light drizzle, but it probably didn't last long to the west.

This will make an incredible base of snow. Now that the cement is freezing solid, there should be minimal settling of the snow. And with several more snow chances this week, we look to build up nicely.

I can't believe that KCLE is reporting only a 7" depth this morning. I easily have over a foot, and you have to struggle to find areas less than 10" in the typically sunny and drift prone spots. It's amazing that we've gone almost a complete month without melting down to bare ground. We couldn't even say the same last winter!

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Considering the lame December we have had, the other months have definitely made up for it. I believe I have crossed the 70" mark to date.

Can't imagine the amount of snow we would have had if the ratios had been lower. I'm glad they were higher though. More staying power and more scenic.

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Toledo area storm totals.

CoCoRAHS shows 11-14" in the Toledo area, 9-12.5" in Henry County Ohio, 15.3" in Monroe County MI, 8" in Sandusky County OH.

 

Edit: 12" of snow at Toledo Express.

 

NWS public information statements/LSRS

 

..LUCAS COUNTY       TOLEDO/OREGON          9.0   921 PM  2/01  SNOW SPOTTER                 TOLEDO-PT PLACE        8.4   913 PM  2/01  SNOW SPOTTER                 TOLEDO EXPRESS AIRPO   8.3   900 PM  2/01  ASOS                         5 WNW PERRYSBURG       7.0   600 PM  2/01  PUBLIC                       TOLEDO                 6.3   830 PM  2/01  SNOW SPOTTER  

 

0835 AM     SNOW             NAPOLEON                41.40N 84.13W  02/02/2015  M8.4 INCH        HENRY              OH   COCORAHS  
  0932 PM     HEAVY SNOW       9 NW WAUSEON            41.64N  84.26W  02/01/2015  M14.3 INCH       FULTON             OH   PUBLIC                          STORM TOTAL.   

 

Michigan

..MONROE COUNTY       MONROE                  M  14.0           28     41.92N    83.39W     3 SW MONROE             M  15.0           30     41.89N    83.43W  
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We basically got the same amount of snow as northern Illinois and southern Michigan, the only difference is that their snow had twice as much air as ours.

Areas closest to the lakeshore definitely won out as temps were coldest there. I probably had slightly better ratios than a few miles inland which could account for an inch or two more.

After what seemed like a big bust yesterday morning, it was great to see the storm pan out. I was watching a local station yesterday morning and saw they had lowered forecasted totals to 4" for Cleveland and 1" for Akron. But as of early morning yesterday that seemed likely.

It's nice to get a storm like this. Definitely one of my more favorite storms. It was also nice not having to fight dry air intrusions, the radar constantly kept back filling with great returns.

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We basically got the same amount of snow as northern Illinois and southern Michigan, the only difference is that their snow had twice as much air as ours.

Areas closest to the lakeshore definitely won out as temps were coldest there. I probably had slightly better ratios than a few miles inland which could account for an inch or two more.

After what seemed like a big bust yesterday morning, it was great to see the storm pan out. I was watching a local station yesterday morning and saw they had lowered forecasted totals to 4" for Cleveland and 1" for Akron. But as of early morning yesterday that seemed likely.

It's nice to get a storm like this. Definitely one of my more favorite storms. It was also nice not having to fight dry air intrusions, the radar constantly kept back filling with great returns.

 

Definitely one of the better storms we've had in quite some time. As DTA mentioned, the heavy snow consistency will have some staying power... much more so than 15" of powder. I have solid 17" - 19" snowpack. The mix last night compacted it a few inches down.

 

Still snowing in Chagrin. The band out west looks healthly and should drop another inch or two as it swings east.

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The band near Lorain has a definite Huron connection. I wonder if it will stay in one spot for long? If that moves just a nudge to the east it'll be over the airport so we'll what kind of Obs they report.

Wow thats a healthy looking band! The 71/480 webcam is a whiteout.

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The band finally pushed west. It's dumping in Chagrin. Huge flake size. Wish we could get one of these huron connected bands to stay put for a few hours.

We've easily eclipsed the 12" mark. Probably closing in on 14"+ with the fluff snow from this morning.

Ya its ripping pretty good in Solon. Wish this thing would stay put for a while.

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The measuring at KCLE is such a joke. The report today lists just 0.9" of snow. You're telling me that 7 hours of visibilities under 1 mile and several lake effect squalls and that's it? Such a shame that's what goes down as official.

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The storm totals CLE sent out in a PNS aren't all storm totals. You can tell which ones are and which ones aren't, but for some places like Solon I don't get why the wrong storm total is listed when they got 3 12-hour snow reports from there.

Yeah. The storm totals is completely inaccurate. They would have to add the 7-9am obs from yesterday, the 7-9pm obs from yesterday night, the 7-9am obs from this morning, and the 7-9pm obs from tonight which have yet to be sent out.

There's a 2 hour window that spotters are supposed to measure everyday. That's why there's often such wild variations in the 12 hour reports. A quick hitting snow from 5-9pm is going to show up in the full total for some places and others it will be split up and shown the next day. I can understand this set up for long duration lake effect events, but for many other events it makes storm totals pretty difficult. Many times spotters might only email part of their storm total for a 12 hr window and the other 12 hrs might not have been emailed and hence doesn't show up online. It doesn't mean no snow fell, but to anyone perusing these it makes it look like a lot less snow fell.

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If only we could lock in the Euro for the next 7 days. The snowfall maps from the New York sub forum have a swath of 2-3 feet from Cleveland to NYC through next Tuesday.

The Sunday storm looks most impressive.

We'd easily have a 30"+ snow pack come next week if everything verified.

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Looks like an inch or two tonight and again tomorrow night. Nice refresher. Weekend storm is still in question but lots of potential.

The snow in my yard is settling and I noticed the ground is soft beneath the snow. Not sure if that is do to the deep snowpack or what... strange considering we had a solid freeze before the snow cover.

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Clipper has appeared to perform slightly better than expected. I'm betting most will wake up to 2-4" from Cleveland and points east.

 

I don't even want to see what KCLE will report. Snow started just before midnight and they had 0.04" liquid equivalent through midnight, amazingly with this super high ratio fluff, they only marked down 0.4". Unbelievable. I don't think any measuring happens there anymore.

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What's amazing is that it doesn't even look like it snowed 3" overnight. The snow was so deep and coating everything beforehand that the new snowfall seems barely noticeable.

Some models are hinting at 4-6" tonight. Theoretically we could have been under a winter storm warning as several areas will likely meet the 8" in 24 hours criteria.

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CLE coming in with 1.5" last night on 0.13" liquid. Don't buy that at all. An 11:1 ratio last night is a complete joke.

I'm amazed because the snow measuring in November was pretty accurate, it fell off a cliff the past 2 weeks. Their 8" snow depth is also a complete joke.

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CLE coming in with 1.5" last night on 0.13" liquid. Don't buy that at all. An 11:1 ratio last night is a complete joke.

I'm amazed because the snow measuring in November was pretty accurate, it fell off a cliff the past 2 weeks. Their 8" snow depth is also a complete joke.

I'm sure people who don't want a lot of snow to fall think the data is accurate. I'm sure they also think some of the storm total measurements from last storm that are obvious low balls are accurate. This map while sometimes off appears to be a fair representation of the last storm.

post-525-0-25617100-1423064566_thumb.jpg

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CLE coming in with 1.5" last night on 0.13" liquid. Don't buy that at all. An 11:1 ratio last night is a complete joke.

I'm amazed because the snow measuring in November was pretty accurate, it fell off a cliff the past 2 weeks. Their 8" snow depth is also a complete joke.

 

Last nights snow was very easy to measure. It definitely wasn't fluff but ratio's had to be higher than 11:1. We just have to get used to adding 6-12" to CLE's annual total to account for poor measuring.

 

I think the biggest problem is that CLE is located just a couple hundred yards from the runway at CLE.

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The current burst of heavy snow that will persist through rush hour combined with temperatures falling into the 20's during the commute would be a prime candidate for an advisory, even though widespread 4"+ amounts won't occur.

The rules for warnings and advisories are bizarre. Let's say that the exact same snow overnight was lake effect and 2-3" fell before dawn and then the bands shifted before expecting to fall back into the area this afternoon and drop 3-4" more. Advisories certainly would have been issued if not warnings. It seems unusual to have 2 separate "decent" snow events separated less than 12 hours apart. Most places will have a calendar total of 6" today easily, of course CLE will have 3".

The snow out there now is pretty intense, I'd imagine rush hour commute will be pretty bad in an hour.

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