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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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1 hour ago, Speedskater said:

There is a big sailboat race regatta in Cleveland. It was scheduled to start Wed. June 15, but lack of wind delayed the beginning to Thursday morning.

Any thoughts on wind and waves Thur, Fri, Sat & Sun, during the day?

Hopefully we don't go too far the other way...suspect it'll be close to small craft advisory conditions Friday and Saturday... My guess: For Thursday, SSW winds in the morning veer towards the WSW in the afternoon behind a cold front at 15-20 knots. Waves 2' or less in the morning, maybe more 1-3' in the afternoon. Friday WSW winds near 15 knots, waves 2-4' in the nearshore waters. Re-enforcing cold front moves through Friday night turning winds NNW. Saturday NNW winds 20-25 knots in the morning gradually subsiding through the afternoon. 3-5' waves all day, closer to 5 in the morning, closer to 3 by early evening. Sunday high pressure starts building in...NNW winds 10-14 knots, waves 1-3'. 

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They only did one race on Thursday (the hope was for 3 races). I think that the cells to the NW and S complicated course setting.

Late Fri. and all day Sat. may be a challenge for the smaller boats.

the open water forecast:

.TONIGHT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
.FRIDAY...West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north.
Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
.SATURDAY...North winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
.SUNDAY...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less.
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  • 4 weeks later...
On 7/18/2022 at 12:50 PM, NEOH said:

Picked up 2.40" of rain since yesterday. It has been dry locally so it was definitely much needed around here. 

Finally a bit of relief after the extended dry period.   Had some good rain overnight and early this morning as well.  Grass is finally growing again.  

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

First line of storms blew up just east of here on the Ohio/PA line. The area from Ashtabula on east has had the hot hand with storms this Summer. Hoping the line to the West can hold together for some action this evening. This has been one of the more boring Summers I can remember for t'storms locally. 

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20 hours ago, NEOH said:

First line of storms blew up just east of here on the Ohio/PA line. The area from Ashtabula on east has had the hot hand with storms this Summer. Hoping the line to the West can hold together for some action this evening. This has been one of the more boring Summers I can remember for t'storms locally. 

Sure enough, that line did weaken once it got near 71.   Still got some rain out of it though.  Definitely been a calm summer.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 9/21/2022 at 9:11 AM, NEOH said:

Seems a little early but lots of color showing in the trees already. Looking forward to the squall line later today... then on to Fall tomorrow. 

Fall is right on time this year.  Leaves turning and even falling already.   Hoping for a pleasant fall for a change. 

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Fall is right on time this year.  Leaves turning and even falling already.   Hoping for a pleasant fall for a change. 

Yeah, I have a few maples dropping already. Definitely a fall feel with the dark skies and lake effect rain coming down now. Last nights storms didn't pan out unfortunately. 

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Looks like a pretty classic lake effect set-up coming Sunday night through Tuesday night/early Wednesday with a deep trough, plenty of moisture, and well aligned flow oscillating between WSW and NW through the event. It'd be a solid warning criteria snow event in 2 months. As it is now, most of NE OH and NW PA could use the rain so it's mainly beneficial as long as someone doesn't get the several inches the Canadian models are trying to suggest...the instability looks deep enough at times Monday into Tuesday for thunder and maybe some small hail with the most intense bands. Probably will be a waterspout fest on the Great Lakes in general too. Fall is arriving on time this year. 

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This event has seemingly trended about as favorably as possible for a long duration, significant lake effect rain event. While I think the heaviest amounts are near I-90 from extreme northeast Cuyahoga County points east to near Buffalo up the lakeshore, activity gradually shifts inland Tuesday and Wednesday so parts of the Cleveland metro and Geauga County will still get some, and a locally heavy band may set-up in northern Cuyahoga and northern Geauga at some point Monday night or Tuesday...with activity likely spreading farther inland Tuesday night into Wednesday. Our QPF grids this morning added up to 3-6" for a large chunk of the primary snowbelt from today (Sunday) through Tuesday night, and some hi-res models have consistently advertised locally even higher numbers than that with any persistent banding closer to the lakeshore and the I-90 corridor. While it's been a dry summer, eventually it's too much rain so we may get the rare lake effect flooding in some spots over the next couple of days.

This would have been quite a snow set-up if it were cold enough. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Trees are getting close to peak... colors seem more vibrant compared to the past couple of years.

 

1.jpg

Even though haven't quite hit peak here in the Fort Wayne area, I also noticed that the colors are brighter this year than the past couple of years.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Even though haven't quite hit peak here in the Fort Wayne area, I also noticed that the colors are brighter this year than the past couple of years.

The recent dryness had me concerned about how the colors would be, but this is encouraging.  I'm sure the cool wx has helped.

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Seems like a good shot for some of us to see flakes Monday night into early Tuesday as a pretty good surface trough axis pushes through, with some moisture from Lake Michigan likely allowing for some showery precip to occur anywhere across northern OH. A cold/moist cyclonic flow then continues through midweek, so we may see some showers mixing with flakes/graupel at times through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday. Lake effect off of Lake Erie looks focused up the eastern lakeshore through Monday evening before pushing into at least the primary snowbelt by Tuesday morning as winds go more west to slightly north of due west. There may be a nice burst of lake effect in the primary snowbelt late Monday night/early Tuesday as the trough pushes through and the band that will initially be focused up the lake pushes onshore. 850mb temps of -4 to -6C are probably a bit too warm for a notable threat for accumulation, but if there's a nice burst it's possible some hilltops get some slushy/grassy accumulations by early Tuesday.

Getting some pretty nice color right now, which hasn't been a given the last few years. 

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Saw some graupel a couple of times yesterday. As a band of heavy precip pushed onshore last night, it changed to mainly graupel/snow for a time from Lake and parts of Geauga Counties points east. Actually covered I-90 and SR-2 with slushy graupel and caused a few accidents in Lake County...a few reports of an inch or so in the highest elevations in NE OH and NW PA. I guess we're on the board for the season? 

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Parts of Lake and Geauga Counties got a bit more snow than we bargained for last evening into the overnight. Changing back to rain now, but would not be surprised to see a few inches in the higher terrain if people measure it early enough this morning. Some scattered power outages due to the wet snow on trees. 

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4 hours ago, OHweather said:

Parts of Lake and Geauga Counties got a bit more snow than we bargained for last evening into the overnight. Changing back to rain now, but would not be surprised to see a few inches in the higher terrain if people measure it early enough this morning. Some scattered power outages due to the wet snow on trees. 

Officially on the board for the season.  3/4" snow here with just plain rain right now.   

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