TheClimateChanger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 hours ago, Floydbuster said: Well with the way all the non-meteorological people are talking on social media and around the water cooler, if we don't get atleast 10+ inches, they'll say it's an over-hyped bust. I wouldn't get too hung up on the colors. Those snowfall maps with the razor-thin cutoffs are inflating the snowfall relative to the depth change and (incorrectly) excluding sleet accumulations. I mean have you ever seen a (non-lake effect) storm go from 5" in Akron to two feet in Cleveland? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 RGEM is like what snow? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Atleast some south trends this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS looks like it's trying to break the storm in two. 6z showed essentially the same thing. All other models thus far are north and still, ostensibly, are are a single storm. ...Waiting with baited breath for the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said: GFS looks like it's trying to break the storm in two. 6z showed essentially the same thing. All other models thus far are north and still, ostensibly, are are a single storm. ...Waiting with baited breath for the 12z Euro. Despite all of the shuffling on the models I think we are in a good spot for this one. Hopefully there will be more consensus with tonight's runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, NEOH said: Despite all of the shuffling on the models I think we are in a good spot for this one. Hopefully there will be more consensus with tonight's runs. Yeah I'm getting a better feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Back at my apartment in Toledo for this one. Should be a great event here. Depending on how Thursday's snow shapes up, could be really something special. 12" looks to be a lock for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, amt5626 said: Back at my apartment in Toledo for this one. Should be a great event here. Depending on how Thursday's snow shapes up, could be really something special. 12" looks to be a lock for now. If the trends continue, you'd be good in Strongsville too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, NEOH said: Despite all of the shuffling on the models I think we are in a good spot for this one. Hopefully there will be more consensus with tonight's runs. 12z Euro ran just a bit south. No system split like the GFS was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 21 minutes ago, amt5626 said: Back at my apartment in Toledo for this one. Should be a great event here. Depending on how Thursday's snow shapes up, could be really something special. 12" looks to be a lock for now. Toledo deserves a good one! So far, this has been a lousy winter for you guys in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Floydbuster said: If the trends continue, you'd be good in Strongsville too. I would just head that way to visit my parents if the trends continue, but my roommate tested positive for Covid yesterday. So out of caution will be staying in Toledo for a bit. I have a hard time believing the super far south solutions. We can afford a bit more eastern movement/pressing of the high before we start to lose out on the second round Thursday. Seems to be a case of Euro/CMC vs. GFS/NAM/UK. Either way, still going to get WSW criteria snows it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, amt5626 said: I would just head that way to visit my parents if the trends continue, but my roommate tested positive for Covid yesterday. So out of caution will be staying in Toledo for a bit. I have a hard time believing the super far south solutions. We can afford a bit more eastern movement/pressing of the high before we start to lose out on the second round Thursday. Seems to be a case of Euro/CMC vs. GFS/NAM/UK. Either way, still going to get WSW criteria snows it looks like. Well I think 8-12 inches is still quite significant, especially with the plow shortages and the snowdrifts already built up from a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Hmmm. Not bad but hoping for a few inches more. That map gives me about 6-8 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 hours ago, NEOH said: Despite all of the shuffling on the models I think we are in a good spot for this one. Hopefully there will be more consensus with tonight's runs. I think you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 33 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Hmmm. Not bad but hoping for a few inches more. That map gives me about 6-8 inches. I listened to BAMWX's storm discussion and the Met said that after watching these kind of storms for several years, he thinks there may be some southward drift in the accums, but a pretty hard hit of snow for NEOH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said: I listened to BAMWX's storm discussion and the Met said that after watching these kind of storms for several years, he thinks there may be some southward drift in the accums, but a pretty hard hit of snow for NEOH. Yeah. With the snowdrifts as high as they are already, even 7 inches is nothing to scoff at, but if it goes higher, it'll be great. (For weather enthusiasts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 59 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Hmmm. Not bad but hoping for a few inches more. That map gives me about 6-8 inches. Here's the updated map through Friday morning. Looks reasonable, except there's a strange band across the SE portion where snowfall suddenly jumps 2+" across no more than like 5 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 23 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Here's the updated map through Friday morning. Looks reasonable, except there's a strange band across the SE portion where snowfall suddenly jumps 2+" across no more than like 5 miles. 8-12 inches. Getting better. 25 more and I'll shut up LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 @OHweather with another awesome short term write up today. Enjoying the format! With the exception of the Canadian runs, all others are pretty favorable for us still. Hoping we don't melt too much tomorrow-weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, dta1984 said: @OHweather with another awesome short term write up today. Enjoying the format! With the exception of the Canadian runs, all others are pretty favorable for us still. Hoping we don't melt too much tomorrow-weds. Just read his AFD... that was outstanding. Sounds like 12-18" in our area with no mixing. Not sure how much will melt tomorrow or Wednesday. As long as we avoid heavy rain (which looks likely) it won't be too bad. We starting off in the low teens tomorrow and temps drop again tomorrow night. With an ice covered lake I'm betting a faster cold front passage along the immediate lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, NEOH said: Just read his AFD... that was outstanding. Sounds like 12-18" in our area with no mixing. Not sure how much will melt tomorrow or Wednesday. As long as we avoid heavy rain (which looks likely) it won't be too bad. We starting off in the low teens tomorrow and temps drop again tomorrow night. With an ice covered lake I'm betting a faster cold front passage along the immediate lakeshore. Yeah. Looks like we're gonna get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 hours ago, WHEATCENT said: @NEOH yup! looks good with snow still falling/to come. How did the 18z Euro look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 @NEOH looked great. included 12z for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrrvilleWX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Our local school district is already telling kids to expect no school Thursday and Friday. Said they will send home school work and may try remote learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: @NEOH looked great. included 12z for comparison. Thanks.. Looks a little NW but its just the orientation of the snow axis. A GFS/Euro blend would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Here's the updated map through Friday morning. Looks reasonable, except there's a strange band across the SE portion where snowfall suddenly jumps 2+" across no more than like 5 miles. That's mainly because the procedures we use to populate the grids do not do well in situations like this where models have wildly different mixing. We had to manually add in the area of ZR to get a more realistic area of it down there (the starting point we got had way too little), so when it ran the accumulations it took QPF from the snow and gave it to the ice down there but it was all or nothing causing a very sharp gradient. We smoothed the snow grids slightly but decided it was good enough since it will change a few more times anyways...the cut-off from solid warning snow (and sleet) to less snow and more ice was roughly where we wanted it right now. There may actually be a cut-off close to that sharp somewhere, though in a perfect world the forecast would be a little smoother. We'll see how the midnight shift does tonight lol. 3 hours ago, dta1984 said: @OHweather with another awesome short term write up today. Enjoying the format! With the exception of the Canadian runs, all others are pretty favorable for us still. Hoping we don't melt too much tomorrow-weds. Thanks! I hope people read what they needed too and didn't just go "ah it's too long" lol, but in the future I may try to consolidate them a little better. Suspect the pack won't melt much...it'll just shrink a bit and then freeze solid as colder air comes back in Wednesday night. If we do happen to get some sleet or freezing rain up here it will be a ridiculously dense pack after this storm. 2 hours ago, NEOH said: Just read his AFD... that was outstanding. Sounds like 12-18" in our area with no mixing. Not sure how much will melt tomorrow or Wednesday. As long as we avoid heavy rain (which looks likely) it won't be too bad. We starting off in the low teens tomorrow and temps drop again tomorrow night. With an ice covered lake I'm betting a faster cold front passage along the immediate lakeshore. Yeah I agree about the cold frontal passage...given the set-up and icy lake, I don't expect surface temps to run warmer than expected this event. Still not sure about the temperatures aloft. I worry somewhere between Cleveland and Canton sleet bombs (currently think it's Akron and that up into Geauga it's mainly snow with perhaps some sleet at times). The set-up seems to be inching a little more southeast at the moment and as I was getting at, there's plenty of QPF for over a foot of snow in the lakeshore counties and Snowbelt if it trends cold enough to stay all snow. Given how often mixing bites us in the ass in this area on the southern fringe I like the idea of starting a bit conservative with the accumulation forecast but it's possible it comes up. Someone just south of the heaviest snow may legitimately get several inches of sleet too, which is unusual for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 NAM lowered totals along the shore by 5 inches and many areas to the south get a sleet bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GDPS gives the lake 0.5 miles from me a foot.....lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: GDPS gives the lake 0.5 miles from me a foot.....lmao RGEM looks like it trended south a bit. Previous runs showed the snow hardly touching the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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