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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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58 minutes ago, NEOH said:

The 06z GFS would an all-timer for Northern Ohio. Still a long way to go but all good trends in the models with the southward shift. 

Definitely some favorable trends.  I'm hoping we can miss any significant icing.  Should be a fun week to track.  

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8 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said:

CMC/EURO/GFS all pretty consistent now in the placement of heavy snow...a few days out. sn10_acc.us_ov.pngsn10_acc.us_ov.png

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

How much did you guys get in Mentor? My girlfriend is in North Royalton and she got slammed but I think we got more accumulation in Stow. I received around 18 inches in Stow.

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13 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Cleveland/Akron mets and peeps seem to be hyping this one up as another 15-20 inch bruiser storm. Better not disappoint! 

We have a CLE NWS met in here - OHWeather. Will be interested in hearing his thoughts. Looks like the Euro has a more consolidated low this run. A blend of the models is still good for this area. 

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1 minute ago, NEOH said:

We have a CLE NWS met in here - OHWeather. Will be interested in hearing his thoughts. Looks like the Euro has a more consolidated low this run. A blend of the models is still good for this area. 

Yeah. I agree.

I think even 10 inches would be considered "major" for those of us here in the Cleveland/Akron area. When we start getting into 20+ inches, that's insane.

One of the weather forecasts my sister has on her phone shows 3-5 inches late Wed night into Thursday, and then 10-16 inches Thursday into Friday. 

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Had the AFD and grids today. Suspect it’s a sleet fest near or just south of Cleveland (with 12-24” of snow just north of the sleet) and a lot of ice in Canton and down towards central and SW Ohio. Feel the more consolidated and amped models are the way to lean…sort of liked a mix of the 12z/18z GFS, 0z CMC and 12z euro as a start for a conceptual idea…and go from there. Fear it trends a little more north from where we are now. 

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Had the AFD and grids today. Suspect it’s a sleet fest near or just south of Cleveland (with 12-24” of snow just north of the sleet) and a lot of ice in Canton and down towards central and SW Ohio. Feel the more consolidated and amped models are the way to lean…sort of liked a mix of the 12z/18z GFS, 0z CMC and 12z euro as a start for a conceptual idea…and go from there. Fear it trends a little more north from where we are now. 

So you’re not thinking the accumulations in Akron the models show? You seem to be saying pretty much any snow will stay over the lake.

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4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

So you’re not thinking the accumulations in Akron the models show? You seem to be saying pretty much any snow will stay over the lake.

That's not really what I said anywhere. I think it will be hard for you to avoid a lot of sleet (and perhaps some freezing rain in Akron, though I'm more worried Canton and Youngstown points south for prolonged icing). You will get at least some snow, perhaps some initially Wednesday night before warm air advection aloft really ramps up, and then on the backside Thursday evening or Thursday night. But I do think the heaviest axis is NW Ohio and then out over the lake. With that said you'll still get at least 1.00-1.50" of QPF (and perhaps up to 2.00" if the GFS is right) in some form of wintry precip down there. It'll be a mess. 

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