vpbob21 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The thing that is concerning to me regarding the GFS is that all the ensemble members are well east of the operational. Don't know what the operational run is seeing that the ensembles don't but at this point I have to think the operational will cave eventually. Hope I'm wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 hours ago, vpbob21 said: The thing that is concerning to me regarding the GFS is that all the ensemble members are well east of the operational. Don't know what the operational run is seeing that the ensembles don't but at this point I have to think the operational will cave eventually. Hope I'm wrong! In reading some of other regional discussions the ensembles have been correcting west with the OP runs. All good trends with the 12z runs today. Took this from the NE forum. This is the 12z euro... quite a few are west - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 And now we've got the Euro in our camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 And the shift back east trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 we get the 0z euro on our side just to have everything correct east gfs and euro wise for 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: we get the 0z euro on our side just to have everything correct east gfs and euro wise for 6z I would not be too concerned with off runs. 0z suite looked great. GFS was a monster crush job. It's good to see the Euro continue to come W. We need a stronger secondary piece to pull the storm a bit to the W. From CLE Models trends over the last 48 hours have been tot he north and west with the track of the surface low, bringing better chances for snow to the region. The evolution of this system will be impacted by a secondary piece of energy moving through the northwest flow into the back of the trough on Sunday night. Depending on the strength of this secondary piece of energy, this can tend to pull the system westward, lending confidence to the recent trends we have seen in the deterministic models over the last few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z eps east as well now... i guess hope for a last ditch back west at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, WHEATCENT said: 6z eps east as well now... i guess hope for a last ditch back west at 12z Should have a much better idea with the 12z runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 hours ago, NEOH said: Should have a much better idea with the 12z runs today. I like where we sit to the NW side. The bleeding to the E seems to have halted. Ukie came west, and Cmc and GFS still give a good storm. We're very close to being big storm, just need a slight bump W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro bled more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: I like where we sit to the NW side. The bleeding to the E seems to have halted. Ukie came west, and Cmc and GFS still give a good storm. We're very close to being big storm, just need a slight bump W. Yep, feel much better on the NW side not sweating p-type issues. Sharp cut off on the NW side though so hopefully we can get a bit of a NW trend with this. Still a long way to go... A 50-75 mile shift either way makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Latest AFD - hopefully OHWeather didn't author this. Let's hope the northern stream is faster and stronger. If the northern stream shortwave is a bit faster coming out of the Mississippi Valley Saturday night and/or the associated upper trough is slightlymore negatively tilted, then a farther west track is still possible. At this time, brought chance PoPs for snow into southern and eastern areas Sunday afternoon followed by likely PoPs east of I-71 Sunday night. My gut feeling is that this will be an advisory level snowfall, and if warning amounts are reached, they will occur from about Youngstown to Erie, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 East trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I think this one will come down to the wire. We're so close. May not be a blockbuster but I think we will see decent accumulations...likely to be much more than what we've seen so far this winter. Another thing, during La Ninas in particular, winter storm tracks, coming this way, have, verified more NW than modeled. Such events have ended up bringing decent accumulations (3"-5")well NW (Detroit, for example) when modeling called for like a coating to an inch though I doubt this go-around will take accumulating snows that far NW. I do remember (correct me if I'm wrong) the Christmas storm last year...for 4-6 days before the storm, models ECMWF, GEM, GFS) were fairly consistent on bringing a good storm to NE OH and NC OH. A white Christmas looked like a good bet. About 3 days prior to the storm, the GFS began playing games as one run had the heavy snow back as far west as South Bend IN and east central Michigan while seemingly, the very next run, the GFS lurched the max amounts well east of here progging paltry amounts (coating to 2") to most areas except the OH-PA border which was progged to get like 3-4". Within 36 hours of Christmas day, GFS finally caved to the other models which always had NE OH in a favorable location. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z Euro is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nice in what way?? You can see where I'm asking from.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Nice. Thanks for posting it. Back and forth it seems with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Would love to wish cast and see this reach Toledo, but I think that is stretching. I can recount about 3 times in the last 20 when a storm kept inches towards us at game time. Just need the energy dumping back in the 500mb trough to do some magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Worst model run yet long range NAM tho.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 hours ago, NEOH said: Latest AFD - hopefully OHWeather didn't author this. Let's hope the northern stream is faster and stronger. If the northern stream shortwave is a bit faster coming out of the Mississippi Valley Saturday night and/or the associated upper trough is slightlymore negatively tilted, then a farther west track is still possible. At this time, brought chance PoPs for snow into southern and eastern areas Sunday afternoon followed by likely PoPs east of I-71 Sunday night. My gut feeling is that this will be an advisory level snowfall, and if warning amounts are reached, they will occur from about Youngstown to Erie, PA. Haha I did not (Sullivan is the name to look for). Probably won't have a part in any AFDs again until some point next week. Am in tomorrow but doing other stuff, then am off through Monday. I think at this point we're done with large trends. The big picture isn't changing. So for a place like Toledo I wouldn't be optimistic. I could be wrong...2-3 days ago I didn't think Cleveland had much of a shot...but I don't see a big NW trend in the cards. I can see subtle wiggles east or west. I personally feel there's a slightly better shot at warning criteria amounts in CLE's easternmost county than the AFD led on (though he certainly didn't rule it out). The northern stream interaction is tricky...if it dives in farther SW and sort of "sling shots" the storm a little more due N (as opposed to NE) for a time it may help, but if it dives in faster and isn't farther west it may also kick the larger storm east a bit quicker. I think there will be a heavy band that produces warning criteria snows near the NW fringe and a sharp cut-off to negligible amounts (and some lake effect/enhanced Monday into Monday night, which could help some even if the heaviest synoptic snow stays east...but there are mixed signals on if the LES is anything of note). My gut feeling is that warning amounts (6"+) get into Mahoning, Trumbull, and NW PA in CLE's CWA. However, I also think it's a sharp cut-off, and that there may only be a one county wide row of advisories west of that before dropping down to sub-advisory amounts (criteria is 4" for an advisory, guessing a 2-4" forecast would get one given lack of snow this season and impacting a Monday AM commute, so we'll consider "sub-advisory" a 1-3" forecast or less). I can see warning amounts getting one more tier west of what I just laid out (so to Summit/Geauga) with a west trend...can also see it edging east a county or two. That's the general zone I'm eying for the western edge of the heavier snow. LES will be a bit of a wild card either way...something like the RGEM only gets the heavy deform band to YNG and ERI, but at the end of the run has a look of moderate lake enhanced snow persisting well into Monday for the CLE area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro has been really consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, WHEATCENT said: Euro has been really consistent. The last couple of runs have been consistent which is good to see. Hopefully it stays that way. We'll be riding a fine line either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Another great run from Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 34 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: Another great run from Euro. Seems like most models took a slight shift back west today... would feel a lot more comfortable with more room but all good trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 sweet gfs run at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Well, models aren't shifting east or if anything, have edged west a bit. Feel like we'll probably see the watch expanded a row of counties west overnight tonight given these trends. Will be another day of interesting runs on Saturday! It'll be a sharp cut-off from warning criteria snow to just an inch or two, so small shifts can make a big difference for the Cleveland area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 hours ago, OHweather said: Well, models aren't shifting east or if anything, have edged west a bit. Feel like we'll probably see the watch expanded a row of counties west overnight tonight given these trends. Will be another day of interesting runs on Saturday! It'll be a sharp cut-off from warning criteria snow to just an inch or two, so small shifts can make a big difference for the Cleveland area. Nice to see no major changes in the models. Watch out now for 8+ in Geauga county. Definitely a sharp cut off to the west. Another bump west today would certainly ease any concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Don't know what to make of the long range HRRR probably not reliable at that range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Hmm NWS only pulled trigger on WWA for lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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