Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[OHweather]

Driving around like a Neanderthal right now, just got a 6” measurement in Pepper Pike off of Cedar Road. Super fluffy. Roads somewhat sporty but not horrible. 

[dta1984]

A bit over 4" here.   After a brief let up, the snow is picking back up.  Looks like the band is wobbling south a bit.  

[NEOH]

2 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Driving around like a Neanderthal right now, just got a 6” measurement in Pepper Pike off of Cedar Road. Super fluffy. Roads somewhat sporty but not horrible. 

Winds have finally turned to WNW IMBY. Pepper Pike/Hunting Valley area has been in the band most of the day. Snow starting to pick back up in Chagrin as the band shifts south. 

[OHweather]

Yeah I’m just east of Russell Center right now at west woods park. It’s not a very heavy snow but these are perfect fluffy dendrites. Awesome to see. Not quite the 6” here I got in Pepper Pike (and a few spots just north or east of there in Mayfield Heights had a bit more but I didn’t feel like getting out and measuring again) but it’s a good 4-5” and still snowing. 

[NEOH]

26 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Yeah I’m just east of Russell Center right now at west woods park. It’s not a very heavy snow but these are perfect fluffy dendrites. Awesome to see. Not quite the 6” here I got in Pepper Pike (and a few spots just north or east of there in Mayfield Heights had a bit more but I didn’t feel like getting out and measuring again) but it’s a good 4-5” and still snowing. 

Watch out for coyotes... that park is loaded with them :). Looks like the snow is starting to reorganize with a more WNW direction. RGEM has this going well into the evening. 

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Watch out for coyotes... that park is loaded with them :). Looks like the snow is starting to reorganize with a more WNW direction. RGEM has this going well into the evening. 

Haha, no coyotes today! Was kind of hoping to see one...NW NJ had plenty of black bears and I ran into them on 3 separate occasions over the summer...that was always a bit worrisome. 

As you mentioned, band is starting to reorganize as temperatures drop and winds back over the land, increasing convergence again. The inversion starts slowly coming down after 7 PM, but there's still decent moisture and lift in the DGZ until about midnight. I'm guessing the band continues to produce solid moderate, very high ratio snow for the next few hours and gradually starts trending lighter by 9 or 10 PM but doesn't dissipate until after midnight. There's enough time for 3-6" more under it given the ratios. RGEM seems to have a good handle into this evening. Will be interesting to see where the band goes...winds over the lake will turn more NW and weaken while winds over land also weaken, but dropping temperatures inland will tend to resist the band sinking much farther south. It very well may not move more than a few miles this evening from where it is now, just little wiggles. So if you're under it, you're likely in good shape. Seems like more disorganized multibands and upslope are bringing some snow still to interior NW PA and SW NY...some spots may get another 1-3" up there (perhaps a bit more in the Huron connection into SW NY well east of the PA boarder), but it seems like the most organized band this evening will be in the Cleveland area into Geauga County. 

A quick run through early soundings for next week's event shows W winds going more NW. Similar thermodynamics to this one, not a low inversion but not that high either, however, high enough that much of the cloud is in the DGZ. Upstream connections may be important for early next week. Accumulations seem very likely for much of the Cleveland area and Snowbelt again, but a question of how significant. 

[dta1984]

3" additional since this afternoon.  Running total at 7".  Looks like the band is drifting south at the moment.  

[dta1984]

Had another 1/2" last night, bringing the event total to 7.5".   Nice overachiever.   

[dta1984]

Rgem for Mon-Tues looks pretty similar to yesterday's event.  

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Rgem for Mon-Tues looks pretty similar to yesterday's event.  

Wow. Almost the same exact placement. This light fluff settled quite a bit with the sun today. 

[NEOH]

Most of the fluff from Friday melted from the rain. Nice to see the winter storm watch for 6-10" though. Placement of the band continues to look fairly similar. Ice was starting to form in the western basin which should increase significantly with the cold temps over the next few days. 

[dta1984]

47 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Most of the fluff from Friday melted from the rain. Nice to see the winter storm watch for 6-10" though. Placement of the band continues to look fairly similar. Ice was starting to form in the western basin which should increase significantly with the cold temps over the next few days. 

Ya didn't take much to melt that fluff.  

Short rangers still look pretty good for tomorrow, Rgem a hair north.

[OHweather]

Looks like a couple of W-E bands set-up off of Lake Erie during the day Monday...one from around downtown or the immediate east side into southern Lake or Geauga, perhaps similar to the area that jackpotted the other day, and perhaps another towards Erie or just east into eastern Erie County. As a trough pushes through Monday evening winds go northwesterly, and everything should push inland pretty well this time with a stronger flow and not the same pressure pattern discussed above with a strong trough to our north keeping the winds backed like we had on Friday. 

My thought is that conditions are sort of "eh" for heavy snow through a good part of Monday. There will be accumulations beneath the bands with good ratios, but instability and inversion heights are marginal and it's pretty dry...plus, a bit more wind and a little more ice over the western basin than the last event. That said, strong low-level instability and the DGZ basically encompassing most of the cloud layer on Monday should still yield accumulations under the W-E bands. Conditions peak for a few hours later Monday and Monday evening, so activity should become more intense, but winds will be starting to go more northwesterly by then. This could be a set-up where a WNW-ESE oriented band hits parts of Lorain, southern Cuyahoga, Medina or Summit/Portage for a few hours and drops quick accumulations. We haven't seen that yet this winter. Thereafter, it'll be NW flow multi-bands and upslope the rest of Monday night into early Tuesday before shutting down. The NW flow stuff should mainly be light (but may still be pretty fluffy and add up a bit), with the exception of a Lake Huron connection into NW PA or far SW NY which could add up better Monday night into early Tuesday. 

My thought is up to a few inches from any W-E bands on Monday...then a quick spray in the evening as everything shifts inland with many getting a nice quick burst, and perhaps a briefly organized band from the west side into the secondary Snowbelt in the evening that may drop up to a few fluffy inches...then lighter NW flow stuff, with some light / fluffy accumulations in the higher terrain or under any weak upstream connections in Northeast Ohio Monday night into early Tuesday but perhaps better accumulations under the Lake Huron connection into NW PA or far SW NY. 

My overall feeling is that this is largely an advisory criteria event for the primary Snowbelt, though the Huron connection could be enough to give parts of Erie County the 8" in 24 hour warning criteria. The west side and secondary Snowbelt should see some light accumulations Monday evening into Monday night, though for the most part should be less than 2", with the exception of perhaps a WNW-ESE band from Lorain County towards parts of Summit/Portage Monday evening that can drop up to a few fluffy inches in a few hours before breaking up.

Curious to see what those in the office do (I was off over the weekend and working from home for tomorrow), their afternoon AFD seemed on the fence on advisory vs warning which jives with what I'm thinking...though my gut feeling is that an advisory will mostly handle things for Ohio with some chance at a warning verifying in inland Erie County PA. 

[dta1984]

Arw is about as good as it gets for flow over here.   Long fetch + what looks like a connection to lake Michigan.  

[WHEATCENT]

yay lake county gets screwed again

 

[NEOH]

9 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

yay lake county gets screwed again

 

The immediate lakeshore in lake county tends to miss out on a lot of events... though with a due west flow you can do really well with a long fetch. Snowfall in the Southern portion of the county is much better with the elevation increase. If I were in lake county I would head to the Concord area just north of Chardon. 

 

 

[dta1984]

1 hour ago, NEOH said:

The immediate lakeshore in lake county tends to miss out on a lot of events... though with a due west flow you can do really well with a long fetch. Snowfall in the Southern portion of the county is much better with the elevation increase. If I were in lake county I would head to the Concord area just north of Chardon. 

 

 

Looks like winds are W now keeping the current main band closer to the lake.  Hopefully the turn more wnw later today.  

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Looks like winds are W now keeping the current main band closer to the lake.  Hopefully the turn more wnw later today.  

Winds are definitely more W'erly than expected... even WSW'erly at this point. Looks like they will shift more NW'erly sometime mid-afternoon. 

[OHweather]

Definitely a dud in NE Ohio. Not sure if Erie County has gotten more, satellite looks better out that way. Winds will turn NW over the next few hours and a lot of areas will see snow, perhaps with a bit more organization briefly along the trough, but nothing really notable in the cards for this event it seems. 

[LakeEffectOH]

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Definitely a dud in NE Ohio. Not sure if Erie County has gotten more, satellite looks better out that way. Winds will turn NW over the next few hours and a lot of areas will see snow, perhaps with a bit more organization briefly along the trough, but nothing really notable in the cards for this event it seems. 

I'll say!  Here in Chesterland, we just got over an inch.  Snow bands this afternoon were weird.  They looked all sliced up.  Was this caused by shearing at a different altitude?

Looks like there is little moisture headed this way for the next week.  Bone dry...

[NEOH]

Just a coating so far today. Winds are picking up and turning to the NW. Maybe a few hours to come of better organized snow. Expectations are low. Considering how bad this winter has been it has been cold enough to cool the lake without a significant LES event. If temps drop low enough tonight the western basin will have expansive ice cover come tomorrow. 

[OHweather]

4 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

I'll say!  Here in Chesterland, we just got over an inch.  Snow bands this afternoon were weird.  They looked all sliced up.  Was this caused by shearing at a different altitude?

Looks like there is little moisture headed this way for the next week.  Bone dry...

This isn't a perfect proxy of the actual environment but is close, a near-initialization sounding off the 18z hi-res NAM over the lake. A few issues I think...

There is some shear as you mentioned, with more westerly low-level winds veering somewhat more northwesterly in beneath the inversion. That will make it harder for a band to organize. The other issue is the flow was a little stronger than Friday's event, 30-40 knots below the inversion over the lake...was on the grids for winds today (ignore the previous comment saying I wouldn't be in the office today, that made for a fun morning on my part) and can say that almost every model was at least a few mph too weak on the winds, especially over the water compared to what was verifying. That didn't help, especially since the atmosphere was fairly dry. Lack of good upstream connection, dry airmass, and stronger wind over the lake isn't good. The other thing that stuck out to me was that winds over the central and western nearshore waters actually went WSW for a time, similar to on land, and there wasn't as great of a temperature difference between over the water and on the land as last Friday. Think that caused a lack of convergence too, so nothing to focus a band. There was better convergence near Erie and they did get a few inches today from parts of Ashtabula County into inland Erie County. 

Overall, think the dry airmass, no upstream help, stronger winds, shear, and lack of convergence all added up to the disorganized appearance today. Just not enough to really focus the bands. I think after Friday's event overperformed a bit with an upstream connection into the east side and a good band there, that when models hinted at some similarities there was an urge to jump on it again. It wasn't unfounded but there were some negatives to overcome. I thought we'd get more than we did! Have gotten a tenth or two this evening here. 

[LakeEffectOH]

12 hours ago, OHweather said:

Overall, think the dry airmass, no upstream help, stronger winds, shear, and lack of convergence all added up to the disorganized appearance today. Just not enough to really focus the bands. I think after Friday's event overperformed a bit with an upstream connection into the east side and a good band there, that when models hinted at some similarities there was an urge to jump on it again. It wasn't unfounded but there were some negatives to overcome. I thought we'd get more than we did! Have gotten a tenth or two this evening here. 

OHweather,

Thanks for the post mortem. Yeah, this one sucked...I didn't know that stronger wind speeds over the lake added to the disorganization of yesterday's event. What do the elevated wind speeds do to lessen the effectivity of the snow bands?

Also, what do you think of the synoptic storm early next week.  The 12z GFS shows its track much further west and the 12z GEM shows increased accumulations (a chunk of that is lake effect/enhanced though.  Seems to be a little more potential than the overnight models depicted.

[LakeEffectOH]

17 hours ago, NEOH said:

Just a coating so far today. Winds are picking up and turning to the NW. Maybe a few hours to come of better organized snow. Expectations are low. Considering how bad this winter has been it has been cold enough to cool the lake without a significant LES event. If temps drop low enough tonight the western basin will have expansive ice cover come tomorrow. 

Most likely the ice has expanded since Sunday.

1) Image below is from yesterday; most likely from the early am before any major freezing took place.

2) Image below is my wild arse (WAG) guess of the current ice cover. Edited areas are within the red circle (Area of Interest).  Note:  Again, just a WAG from 30 years of watching similar western base ice cover spread over a similar  2-3 day sub-freezing temperature regime.

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Most likely the ice has expanded since Sunday.

1) Image below is from yesterday; most likely from the early am before any major freezing took place.

 

2) Image below is my wild arse (WAG) guess of the current ice cover. Edited areas are within the red circle (Area of Interest).  Note:  Again, just a WAG from 30 years of watching similar western base ice cover spread over a similar  2-3 day sub-freezing temperature regime.

 

Ice definitely expanded. Anything west of the Islands is probably fully covered. The "good news" is that it is thin and will be pushed around quite a bit with the wind this week. Crazy to think with how warm December was the lake is quickly building ice. Here's the view from Middle Bass Island -

 

[OHweather]

10 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

OHweather,

Thanks for the post mortem. Yeah, this one sucked...I didn't know that stronger wind speeds over the lake added to the disorganization of yesterday's event. What do the elevated wind speeds do to lessen the effectivity of the snow bands?

Also, what do you think of the synoptic storm early next week.  The 12z GFS shows its track much further west and the 12z GEM shows increased accumulations (a chunk of that is lake effect/enhanced though.  Seems to be a little more potential than the overnight models depicted.

You can still get organized bands with strong winds, but if there's shear the stronger flow can make them harder to consolidate. The bigger issue is the stronger winds limit how much time the air spends over the lake. For the most part with lake effect, the air moving over the lake is not initially moist and unstable enough to produce heavy snow...but while moving the lake, heat and moisture flux from the water modify the air to the point where it can become moist and unstable enough to produce heavier snow. Stronger winds limit the time for that to happen. We have gotten good lake effect events with similar wind speeds as Monday before, but usually the airmass is already more humid before hitting the lake and / or there's an upstream connection or synoptic snow ongoing (which would be more lake enhancement)...in those cases, it doesn't take as long for the lake to modify the air over it to the point where you can get good snow. But in yesterday's case, with a dry airmass, no good upstream connection from Lake Michigan, and rapidly expanding ice over the western basin (which doesn't immediately kill the heat/moisture flux, but does limit it) it all added up on top of the stronger winds. 

Based on some glimpses through satellite today when it briefly cleared over part of the lake, your guesstimated ice map above is pretty close...it's locked up from just east of the islands points west at the moment, though as NEOH mentioned the winds over the next few days will shift it around a bit at least so it's not totally frozen solid yet. 

The system Sunday night into Monday is getting closer...my current gut feeling is that it gets too far southeast before phasing to be a credible threat for us, but models have been trending towards diving the initial shortwave so far west that it's slower and farther northwest when it rounds the corner, which is what we'd need as it'd phase with the shortwave diving out of the Midwest closer to the Mississippi Valley as opposed to over the Southeast...so another shift slower / northwest makes it interesting. There's some blocking in front of it but not enough to totally rule out snow into OH if it phases earlier. I'm not yet optimistic but it's a little closer than I would've thought even 24 hours ago. 

 

[WHEATCENT]

tonight's gfs even more west than 18z 

 

[NEOH]

It going to be an interesting few days of model watching for sure. Let's go for a track over PIT or State College. 

 

 

[dta1984]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

It going to be an interesting few days of model watching for sure. Let's go for a track over PIT or State College. 

 

 

Agreed!  More model support other than the gfs would be nice.  Though others seem to be ticking back west.   I would think we would get some lake enhancement into play as well. 

[NEOH]

12 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Agreed!  More model support other than the gfs would be nice.  Though others seem to be ticking back west.   I would think we would get some lake enhancement into play as well. 

The CMC and GFS both have decent tracks. Lake enhancement would certainly boost totals near the lakeshore as well. Hopefully the euro will come west as well. Lots of details which have a big impact still tbd. Long shot but its all we have .