Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[OHweather]

It's snowing pretty good and sticking to all surfaces here, but even around here you can notice a difference between hill tops and low spots. Very elevation and rate dependent. The airport is about to get a brief but heavy burst and is down to 34, let's see if they can manage 0.1" out of it... 

[NEOH]

14 hours ago, OHweather said:

It's snowing pretty good and sticking to all surfaces here, but even around here you can notice a difference between hill tops and low spots. Very elevation and rate dependent. The airport is about to get a brief but heavy burst and is down to 34, let's see if they can manage 0.1" out of it... 

Picked up .7" last night. Seems like the snow shut off quicker than expected. It was interesting to notice the change in accumulation across the various elevations. Below 1k almost no accumulation, with a very noticeable increase above 1,100 feet. 

[NEOH]

Normally a winter storm tracking along and south of the Ohio River moving east into Maryland would deliver snow to Northern Ohio. Pretty much an ideal track for heavy snow. Hard to believe its going to be in the 40's with rain. 

[WHEATCENT]

new EURO hate being in the bullseye 180 hours out....

 

[Frog Town]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Normally a winter storm tracking along and south of the Ohio River moving east into Maryland would deliver snow to Northern Ohio. Pretty much an ideal track for heavy snow. Hard to believe its going to be in the 40's with rain. 

Pacific storm origin.  Cold presses but just too late.   

[OHweather]

Between some minor lake effect Sunday night / early Monday, and another (brief) shot of Arctic air to end next week (with models trying to spin up a low in front of it) there is a bit of stuff to track here coming up...though, let's get today's 12z GFS and Euro solutions a few days closer for the end of next week if we can...

 

Shameless self promotion but the first AFD I wrote was this afternoon and touched on both systems plus another warm and rainy system. 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather will ring in 2022 as a wave of low pressure drags a
cold front through the region Saturday into Saturday night, ushering
in a brief blast of more seasonable weather for the second half of
the weekend.

The models remain fairly consistent today with the overall evolution
of the cold front and wave of low pressure. There has been a modest
trend to slow the system down, so we have nudged back the arrival of
categorical POPs Saturday morning across the northern half of the
region, though overall the message for Saturday remains the
same...yet another warmer than average, rainy "winter" day across
the region.

Strong isentropic lift beneath the right-entrance quadrant of a 150+
knot upper-level jet streak will maximize across the region midday
Saturday through the afternoon, and this is when the steadiest and
heaviest rain will occur. All non-NAM models agree on keeping the
surface frontal boundary well south of our CWA, which would keep the
rain more stratiform in nature across northern OH and northwest PA.
That would keep overall QPF and rates fairly manageable. Given the
recent wet weather area rivers will rise, but overall QPF amounts of
1" or less shouldn`t cause significant hydro issues. The NAM has a
notably more amplified solution (stronger, slower, farther northwest
low track)that pushes the warm front all the way to Lake Erie. While
that solution would bring convection into the picture and greater
concern for hydro issues, the overall pattern is progressive and the
upper trough with our system is positively tilted. Given the
consistency of the other guidance and the overall pattern, we
believe the NAM is significantly too amplified and largely rolled
with the rest of the guidance suite which was more consistent with
the going forecast.

Colder air filters in behind the front Saturday night into Sunday,
with a bit of snow possible across the region. The progression of
cold air will be gradual, reaching Toledo by Saturday evening but
not getting to Canton or Youngstown until Sunday morning. There
appear to be two opportunities for some light synoptic snow across
the area. The first opportunity will be in far northwestern OH
Saturday evening as colder air begins filtering in before we lose
better synoptic moisture and support overnight. This may produce
some accumulations in the Toledo area. We`ll watch the timing of
that changeover closely, as if it occurs a bit quicker Saturday
afternoon when greater QPF is left there may be a bit more snow.
Colder air gradually works into more of northern OH and northwestern
PA overnight but moisture / lift in the DGZ are weaker by then so
accumulations elsewhere Saturday night, if any, will be very light.
The core of the upper trough pushes through the area Sunday morning
and early afternoon and may bring just enough synoptic moisture and
lift for a brief round of light synoptic snow or snow showers, with
the entire region getting cold enough to mix with or change to snow
by midday Sunday. Any accumulations with this push of snow will be
light, though the entire region stands a shot at seeing flakes on
Sunday. A lull is likely later Sunday before some lake effect sets
up into Sunday night.

As the core of the coldest air (850mb temperatures over the lake of -
12 to -15C) moves over the lake Sunday night there will be some
minor lake effect snow with a north to northwest flow. The mixed
layer over the lake will only be about 5k feet deep with a strong
inversion and very dry air above it...which along with a short fetch
will limit the lake effect potential. However, with lake to 850mb
temperature differentials nearing 20C and steep lapse rates getting
into the bottom of the DGZ, there`s likely to be enough "juice" for
lake effect snow showers, especially if we can tap into some Lake
Huron moisture. High chance to likely POPs remain in the forecast
for both the primary and secondary Snowbelts for Sunday night for
this lake effect. Snow amounts will be light, but will probably
whiten things up a bit in parts of the Snowbelt, especially if a
weak connection to Lake Huron does indeed develop.

Outside of the Snowbelt it will largely be dry later Sunday and
Sunday night as the upper trough shifts east and high pressure
begins building in. Given the north-northwesterly flow off the lake
the Central Highlands may try to wring out some very light flurries
or a brief snow shower into Sunday night, so that is the one area
outside of the Snowbelt where some low POPs were maintained after
the departure of the synoptic moisture / lift.

Lows Saturday night will range from the upper 20s in NW Ohio to mid
30s near CAK and YNG. Temperatures steady or falling into the upper
20s/lower 30s on Sunday...it will feel like winter. Sunday night
will be one of the coldest nights of the season so far, mid 10s in
northwest and north-central Ohio to the lower 20s in the Snowbelt.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term begins on Monday. Some minor lake effect may linger in
extreme northeast OH and northwest PA into Monday, but the surface
high will really be nosing in by then, clamping down on the lake
effect and causing what`s left of it to gradually shift east and out
of our area during the day. Any additional accumulations on Monday
will be minimal. Outside of the primary Snowbelt expect plenty of
sunshine on Monday, though it will stay chilly with highs in the
upper 20s/lower 30s.

After the lake effect ends, the area will be all dry through Tuesday
evening with temperatures gradually moderating on a southwest flow
ahead of our next low pressure. This low pressure will track well to
our north but push a cold front across our area later Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Models disagree on the exact evolution of this, so
we maintained modest POPs for mostly rain on Wednesday, with cooler
air moving in behind the front Wednesday night.

The next system follows quickly Thursday into Thursday night, as
very cold air drops into the Midwest and encourages a low pressure
to develop and track towards the Ohio Valley or southern Great
Lakes. Models have been bouncing around with the track and intensity
of this system quite a bit, typical for nearly a week out, so for
now the forecast has chance POPs for rain and snow showers on
Thursday. However, longer range ensembles do have some probabilities
for accumulating snow across the area with this system so it`s worth
keeping an eye on for wintry potential. A chunk of Arctic air and
lake effect snow potential likely follows behind this system beyond
the end of the forecast.

[OHweather]

Didn't get much out of all of this here...a couple tenths yesterday morning and some freezing drizzle in the afternoon. Lake effect was very meager, just some flurries last night and this morning (still ongoing). Most non-GFS models still advertise up to a few inches of synoptic snow followed by some lake effect later Thursday into Friday, so it seems like a half decent shot at something more substantial. 

[NEOH]

41 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Didn't get much out of all of this here...a couple tenths yesterday morning and some freezing drizzle in the afternoon. Lake effect was very meager, just some flurries last night and this morning (still ongoing). Most non-GFS models still advertise up to a few inches of synoptic snow followed by some lake effect later Thursday into Friday, so it seems like a half decent shot at something more substantial. 

Just a coating here as well... even with the lake huron fetch. Late week does look interesting. Looks like a WSW flow behind the cold front on Wednesday. Hopefully we can cash in on some synoptic snow, then a brief window of LES with a WNW flow before ridging pushes in. 

[WHEATCENT]

Earthquakes less rare than snow imagine that 

[TheClimateChanger]

2021 was an impressive year for northern Ohio weatherwise. New annual heat records set or tied in 4 of CLE's 6 first order stations (Toledo, Mansfield, Akron/Canton, and Erie PA). Officially, 6th warmest at Cleveland and Youngstown, although both of those are somewhat questionable. There was a period in the mid 2010s when CLE's readings were clearly a degree or so too warm and the current records are from 2017 and 2016. The last couple of years, the readings appear about a half degree too cool relative to the other stations. In the case of YNG, records at the current airport location began in October 1943, prior to that the threaded station includes records dating to 1930 from the city, as well as a couple years in the late 1800s. The older records are from the city (about 350' lower in elevation, 10 miles further south, and urbanized), so there's probably about a 2-2.5 degree bias from those 1930s readings, which would put the readings in line with neighboring sites. Unfortunately, the 1930s were also a relatively warm period so with the station bias dominate the warm weather records. 2021 did tie 2012 for warmest since records began at the current site.

Toledo

Mansfield

Akron/Canton

Erie, PA

Cleveland

Youngstown

[LakeEffectOH]

This upcoming event looks like a total dud.  Look for the forecast accumulations to be reduced to the customary, as of late, an inch or less.  A term I thoroughly dislike.

[WHEATCENT]

i just wish we could at least get some lake effect with what looks like decent cold air the next 10 days aside from 36 hours this weekend with more 40s and rain. 

[NEOH]

19 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

This upcoming event looks like a total dud.  Look for the forecast accumulations to be reduced to the customary, as of late, an inch or less.  A term I thoroughly dislike.

Ha. This has been a rough stretch for sure. Not a good look overall - cold front comes through tomorrow with a west southwest wind direction behind it. Then the "storm" goes south whiffing us. Perhaps a brief window of LES on Friday before ridging moves in. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Snowfall has certainly been paltry so far, particularly in the snow belt. For Cleveland, this has been the eighth least snowiest start to the winter season. And at Erie, the 7th least snowy start and the least snowiest since 1944. Some missing data is noted for Erie in 1924 and 1944. I think that's probably just days where no snow was observed but the observer left the entry blank, but if it's true missing data, then those years might have been snowier than represented in this list.

Cleveland

Erie

[LakeEffectOH]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Ha. This has been a rough stretch for sure. Not a good look overall - cold front comes through tomorrow with a west southwest wind direction behind it. Then the "storm" goes south whiffing us. Perhaps a brief window of LES on Friday before ridging moves in. 

Interesting that NWS CLE has 1-2" Thurs nite and 1-2" for Friday.  Would be nice if we could at least winter things up with 2-4" of snow.  More snow forecast early next week, lasting from Sunday nite thru Tuesday. 

[LakeEffectOH]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Snowfall has certainly been paltry so far, particularly in the snow belt. For Cleveland, this has been the eighth least snowiest start to the winter season. And at Erie, the 7th least snowy start and the least snowiest since 1944. Some missing data is noted for Erie in 1924 and 1944. I think that's probably just days where no snow was observed but the observer left the entry blank, but if it's true missing data, then those years might have been snowier than represented in this list.

What's really weird is that we've really lost out a lot on lake effect.  Part of the reason, IMHO, is the prevalence of a +NAO over the last several winters. With a +NAO, the trough axis tends to stay to our west and the resulting cutters only bring flurries as there is little residual moisture after a storm cuts into Wisconsin or Michigan.  Also if LES conditions are better (more moisture and arctic air) a +NAO can result in a more WSW flow sending the LES to Buffalo.

Note, the NAO was mostly negative in Dec 2020 and we had not one but two awesome snowstorms.

[OHweather]

Yeah, the synoptic snow is missing us, blegh. The lake effect late Thursday night into Friday looks fairly interesting but brief...advisories seem likely at the least for most of the primary NE OH and NW PA snowbelt and some guidance supports the possibility of a focused band or two late Thursday night into Friday that can produce warning type amounts. My thought is NE Cuyahoga, Lake, northern Geauga, Ashtabula and parts of Erie Co do best with it. 

I had the long term portion of the forecast today at CLE so those POPs in your forecast for early next week were "made with love"...some lake effect seems like a slam dunk early next week, but the airmass is going to be pretty cold and dry and it is in and out quickly. Wasn't hard to go over 50/50 for the POPs in the heart of the Snowbelt for it as I think snow is much more likely than nothing for that period, but I'm not sold on it being significant yet. But at this point I think we'd take enough to solidly cover the ground and run. 

[WHEATCENT]

Canadian  has been quite consistent in giving most of Western Lake County 8-12

hmm

[NEOH]

15 hours ago, OHweather said:

Yeah, the synoptic snow is missing us, blegh. The lake effect late Thursday night into Friday looks fairly interesting but brief...advisories seem likely at the least for most of the primary NE OH and NW PA snowbelt and some guidance supports the possibility of a focused band or two late Thursday night into Friday that can produce warning type amounts. My thought is NE Cuyahoga, Lake, northern Geauga, Ashtabula and parts of Erie Co do best with it. 

I had the long term portion of the forecast today at CLE so those POPs in your forecast for early next week were "made with love"...some lake effect seems like a slam dunk early next week, but the airmass is going to be pretty cold and dry and it is in and out quickly. Wasn't hard to go over 50/50 for the POPs in the heart of the Snowbelt for it as I think snow is much more likely than nothing for that period, but I'm not sold on it being significant yet. But at this point I think we'd take enough to solidly cover the ground and run. 

Looks like a brief but decent shot at LES Thursday night into Friday. The flow looks to come around from 280-290 which would be good for those south of the 322 corridor. The one positive is that there will already be an established band of snow over the lake from the WSW flow... just a matter of how far inland it will push. 

Nice to read a little humor in the AFD "Regardless, it will be cold and if you haven`t dusted off the winter coat yet this season, you will need to early next week."

[NEOH]

CLE's snowfall map from this afternoon looks like the RGEM, and to some degree the 18z nam. The 12z nam was much better, but 18z backed off on snowfall. 12z WRF-ARW brought the band pretty far south. Hoping the winds can turn enough to be more favorable for those south of 322. 

 

 

[dta1984]

12 minutes ago, NEOH said:

CLE's snowfall map from this afternoon looks like the RGEM, and to some degree the 18z nam. The 12z nam was much better, but 18z backed off on snowfall. 12z WRF-ARW brought the band pretty far south. Hoping the winds can turn enough to be more favorable for those south of 322. 

 

 

Their map seems reasonable, the low end amounts will be nice.  It'll be good to get the ground covered again.  Cle mentions the possibility of the band getting hung up along the shore....so hoping that doesn't happen (although that would be good for @WHEATCENT).   Looks like @OHweather had a part in that discussion write up!

[OHweather]

I did a decent chunk of the AFD and grid editing for the LES this afternoon (the AFD was a bit too long given what this event is, but it was my first real LES one so eh oh well). The RGEM was in the blend I started off with for the QPF, along with some of the prior forecast, WPC QPF guidance and a couple of other hi-res models. It was hand edited to smooth out a couple of bullseyes and shift things a bit. The RGEM QPF would’ve given about a foot or more of snow from NE Cuyahoga through much of Lake with the ratios we had in the grids. 
 

I am worried that with a weak flow and decen0t lake aggregate trough over the Great Lakes that bands will struggle to push inland. It’s an amazing discrepancy between the RGEM which has heavy QPF right along the lakeshore and many other models that push things well inland and have much less QPF Friday and Friday evening. My hunch is that the RGEM is onto something but that it’s too focused and heavy with the QPF and a bit too close to the lake. The soundings get marginal by midday Friday so if there isn’t any organized banding it may get paltry pretty quickly after the trough moved through. 
 

We shall see what the model runs tonight and tomorrow show and see if models converge on a solution one way or another or not. 

[NEOH]

Latest model guidance looked a little better than yesterday with pushing the band inland tomorrow morning. Seems like qpf was cut back a bit though. 2-4" seems like a good call for the Chagrin area. 

[OHweather]

Yeah, feel better about the band getting from Cleveland down to Solon before breaking up tomorrow morning. Don’t think I get much down in Reminderville though, I think I’m too far south. Does seem like the RGEM heavy band into Lake County isn’t going to pan out. A general 2-4”, locally higher for the primary NE Ohio snowbelt seems like a good call IMO…similar to what we had yesterday, probably an inch lower overall than what the grids came up to in the afternoon. 

[NEOH]

Picked up around 2" so far. Nice convergence band setting up from downtown on east. Winds are still WSW'erly here so the trough hasn't made it this far south yet. 

[dta1984]

20 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Picked up around 2" so far. Nice convergence band setting up from downtown on east. Winds are still WSW'erly here so the trough hasn't made it this far south yet. 

Same here. Radar looks decent, looks like a band trying to form from the west side through Chagrin.

[NEOH]

16 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Same here. Radar looks decent, looks like a band trying to form from the west side through Chagrin.

Radar does look great as that band is becoming the primary band... and extends through the length of the western basin so its a long fetch. Winds are still wsw'erly here so there must be some convergence as well. 

[OHweather]

Yeah the convergence is still hung up just to your north and isn't moving. The band looks pretty steady state, and cloud tops have cooled a bit over the western basin so it's not going to weaken anytime soon. Winds don't move much today...models are struggling with how backed (more SWrly) winds are south of the band right now. The hi-res NAM and RGEM are the only models that have a clue...even the hi-res NAM moves things too westerly on land IMO (which would weaken the band and allow is to shift a bit farther south). The RGEM suggests near steady-state with perhaps a brief weakening in the convergence this afternoon as temperatures inland warm a bit and allow for a little bit more mixing over the more west-northwest winds aloft down to the ground before convergence re-intensifies into this evening. The soundings support continued moderate, very fluffy snow in the band through this evening and it should continue in a rather similar area (perhaps wiggling around a bit) for another 8-12 hours. I'm off today but looks like the office just dropped the warning on Cuyahoga, Lake and Geauga a few minutes ago. Enjoy for those of you cashing in on this!

Almost an inch of pure air here, probably 30-40:1 ratios. I'll take it. 

Shouldn't have wavered on the idea of this decent band into the Cleveland area and the east side from a couple days ago when the models showed more WNW/NW winds yesterday. Pretty amazing how this is an issue so often with the models around here. RGEM is consistently one of the best with this set-up, may have to give it even more weight next time! 

[NEOH]

48 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Yeah the convergence is still hung up just to your north and isn't moving. The band looks pretty steady state, and cloud tops have cooled a bit over the western basin so it's not going to weaken anytime soon. Winds don't move much today...models are struggling with how backed (more SWrly) winds are south of the band right now. The hi-res NAM and RGEM are the only models that have a clue...even the hi-res NAM moves things too westerly on land IMO (which would weaken the band and allow is to shift a bit farther south). The RGEM suggests near steady-state with perhaps a brief weakening in the convergence this afternoon as temperatures inland warm a bit and allow for a little bit more mixing over the more west-northwest winds aloft down to the ground before convergence re-intensifies into this evening. The soundings support continued moderate, very fluffy snow in the band through this evening and it should continue in a rather similar area (perhaps wiggling around a bit) for another 8-12 hours. I'm off today but looks like the office just dropped the warning on Cuyahoga, Lake and Geauga a few minutes ago. Enjoy for those of you cashing in on this!

Almost an inch of pure air here, probably 30-40:1 ratios. I'll take it. 

Shouldn't have wavered on the idea of this decent band into the Cleveland area and the east side from a couple days ago when the models showed more WNW/NW winds yesterday. Pretty amazing how this is an issue so often with the models around here. RGEM is consistently one of the best with this set-up, may have to give it even more weight next time! 

It has been ripping here in Chagrin. Interesting though that even with fairly strong winds the heaviest snows are closer to the lake and not pushing inland. Lake effect is a crap shoot to forecast. The RGEM was definitely the best model with this, but had the the heaviest snow  further north from where the band is located... but still very good overall. After a long snowless stretch this is great. 

 

 

[OHweather]

42 minutes ago, NEOH said:

It has been ripping here in Chagrin. Interesting though that even with fairly strong winds the heaviest snows are closer to the lake and not pushing inland. Lake effect is a crap shoot to forecast. The RGEM was definitely the best model with this, but had the the heaviest snow  further north from where the band is located... but still very good overall. After a long snowless stretch this is great. 

 

 

I'm probably going to take a drive around in a little bit and maybe go for a hike in some of the metroparks in eastern Cuyahoga County. I haven't properly enjoyed a good snow since February 1st of last year in NJ! The band has actually wiggled north a bit over the last hour as SW winds persist over land, in defiance of every model except for the RGEM. There are hints of another subtle trough pushing through towards 6 PM which could cause the band to focus and then drift a few miles south, before drifting back north / east and weakening by later this evening. All of this doesn't add up to a ton of movement and it's an efficient snow. I think the bullseye is a bit north or northwest of Chagrin, but someone may get a fluffy foot in the vicinity of eastern Cuyahoga (maybe Hunting Valley-ish) or extreme NW Geauga. 

I think the reason the trough is struggling to push so far inland is the combination of the lake aggregate trough to our north and the high pressure ridging into the Ohio Valley. Both will cause winds to want to pull a little more southerly, towards the trough, especially over land where friction backs the winds even more. Over the lake good mixing causes the WNW winds aloft to mix down which causes the convergence near the shore. Several years ago I looked at some heavy banded snow events into Cuyahoga County like this one and this pressure pattern was common in them. 

My frustration is the lack of models being able to resolve this. The RGEM consistently does best with these set-ups but as you pointed out, still wasn't particularly great with placement and probably was too high on QPF. My strategy on Wednesday on the grids when doing the QPF (and hence snow, since it's calculated from the QPF and snow ratios we have in) was to take the RGEM and blend it some with the prior forecast, WPC QPF guidance and a couple of other hi-res models that I thought had a slightly better idea...then hand edited it to smooth it out and get the placement closer to where I wanted. I was trying to get something similar to the RGEM but a bit more spread out and farther southwest. Didn't end up perfect by any stretch, but it's known in the CLE office by several already that the RGEM is good at sniffing these out so hopefully this gets added to the list of events it has done well on and we can keep trying to study these events...there just haven't been many good LES events in Ohio the last few winters which doesn't help either. Was glad at least that a few of the AFDs Tuesday and Wednesday mentioned the possibility, but it's going to be hard to get something like this in the forecast if all the other hi-res models aren't on board, which is understandable (we definitely don't want to false alarm the Cleveland metro) but also frustrating because the models struggle. At the least advisories were out before the snow started and they upgraded quickly once the band started settling in a couple of hours ago, probably about as good as could be reasonably hoped for with as poor as the 0z and 12z hi-res models were with QPF yesterday. The 0z runs last night did start coming back up a bit. 

Anyways, I'm happy we're getting a nice event and hopefully we get some more early next week! There is a brief warm-up coming later next week, but after mid-month looks to trend colder again. Winter is more or less here, finally, for the time being.